Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD rose: the market awaits US employment market statistics

Supported by expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy, the EURUSD pair returned above 1.1100, rising for the third consecutive session. Find out more in our analysis for 6 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair has resumed steady growth
• Today, investors are awaiting the crucial US employment sector releases for August
• EURUSD forecast for 6 September 2024: 1.1133, 1.1026, and 1.0985

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate climbed to 1.1115.

The first release of US employment market data for August surprised the market yesterday. ADP private sector jobs increased by only 99,000, missing the forecast of 144,000 and falling short of the previous increase of 122,000. While there is no direct correlation between these figures and nonfarm payrolls, the sentiment is clear: the employment market is losing jobs.

This may prompt the US Federal Reserve to act even more swiftly than planned. In this context, today’s statistics are crucial, with the US unemployment rate report for August scheduled for release this evening. The main forecast suggests a decrease to 4.2% from 4.3%. Nonfarm payrolls could expand by 164,000 following previous growth of 114,000. However, statistics may bring surprises.

The EURUSD forecast suggests an increase in volatility later this afternoon.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD is in equilibrium: the US dollar came under pressure

The GBPUSD pair has strengthened its position. The market is disappointed in the outlook following Friday’s US employment statistics. Find out more in our analysis for 9 September 2024.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a corrective wave, reaching 1.3237. Following the news, it declined to 1.3147 before rising to 1.3198. The GBPUSD rate is expected to fall to 1.3110 and form a consolidation range around this level today.



Investors in the GBPUSD pair are preoccupied with assessing risks and monitoring the news landscape.

Read more - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY remains flat: the market is awaiting signals

The USDJPY pair has halted its rise and is consolidating. Investors have a busy week ahead. Find out more in our analysis for 10 September 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY halted its ascent
• The market is still betting on a decisive monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan
• USDJPY forecast for 10 September 2024: 139.70

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is hovering around 143.25 on Tuesday. Last week’s gains for the yen appear to be offset, with the US dollar regaining ground ahead of the release of crucial inflation statistics this week.

The JPY rate rose by more than 3.00% over the past week, with the USDJPY pair falling to annual lows. This became possible due to expectations of future decisive steps by the Bank of Japan. In making a decision to raise interest rates before the end of the year, the BoJ could be supported by the continued growth of wages in the country and persistent inflationary pressure.

It became known a little earlier that the Japanese economic growth rate slowed in Q2. The country’s GDP grew by 2.90% year-over-year, falling short of the preliminary estimate of 3.10%. The USDJPY forecast is still neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD declined: US political debates and inflation report are ahead

The EURUSD pair hovers at a four-week low on Wednesday. The market appears wary. Discover more in our analysis for 11 September 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, the market has completed a downward wave, reaching 1.1015. A correction towards 1.1046 (testing from below) is expected today, 11 September 2024. Once the correction is complete, the downward wave could develop to 1.1030.



The EURUSD pair has declined markedly. The market has reduced its activity level as the news landscape is highly busy.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: rising US core inflation has almost ruled out a 50-basis-point Fed interest rate cut

The EURUSD rate is slightly correcting following a decline caused by a rise in US inflation. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US core inflation unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in August from July, marking the highest reading in four months
• The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the next meeting is virtually ruled out, while the odds of a 25-basis-point cut (market expectations) are 87%
• The European Central Bank is expected to lower the key rate by 25 basis points today
• According to analysts, the EURUSD rate may fall to 1.0200 by the end of the year amid ECB monetary policy tightening
• EURUSD forecast for 12 September 2024: 1.0986 and 1.0950

Fundamental analysis

US core inflation unexpectedly rose in August, driven by increased housing and travel prices. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% from July, marking the highest reading over the past four months. Headline inflation ran at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. This unexpected rise in inflation may prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates aggressively despite signs of a slowing employment market.

The current inflation data changed market expectations, pushing the EURUSD rate slightly down. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting is now virtually ruled out. Instead, expectations of a 25-basis-point cut are estimated at 87%, while the odds of a more significant 50-basis-point reduction have dropped to 13%. The market has already priced everything in, although analysts had expected to get clarity on interest rate issues only by Friday.

At the same time, the European Central Bank is expected to lower the key rate by 25 basis points today. This decision is due to the fact that inflation in the eurozone eased to 2.2% in August, wage growth slowed, and the GDP Q2 growth forecast was revised to 0.2%. According to analysts, the EURUSD rate may decline to 1.0200 by the end of the year amid ECB monetary policy tightening in response to the weakening economy. The current ECB meeting may directly impact today’s EURUSD forecast and become a significant catalyst for the currency market, showing that the regulator can cut rates faster than currently expected.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) is rising rapidly, reaching a new all-time high of 2,532 USD

XAUUSD price exited a sideways range yesterday, subsequently surpassing an all-time high of 2,532 USD. Gold may continue its ascent. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 13 September 2024.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The XAUUSD H4 chart shows a sideways price range, with boundaries at 2,532 USD and 2,470 USD. Following the release of US inflation data, gold prices rose and broke above the range’s upper boundary, indicating the potential for further upward movement.



Gold prices are rising steadily, reaching an all-time high of 2,532 USD after the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

Read more - XAUUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD continues to rise following a correction

Improving UK house price index and US manufacturing index figures support the British pound. Discover more in our analysis for 16 September 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Rightmove UK house price index (y/y): previously at -1.5%, currently at 0.8%
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (US): previously at -4.7 points, currently at -4.1
• GBPUSD forecast for 16 September 2024: 1.3177 and 1.3199

Fundamental analysis

A monthly change in the Rightmove UK year-over-year house price index was published on Monday, 16 September 2024. The indicator shows how much the average price of housing property for sale has changed. Figures above the forecast and previous data are a positive factor for the British pound. A weaker-than-expected reading reflects negative developments. The previous statistics came out below forecasts, while the current reading has now shifted to positive territory, reaching 0.8% and propelling the GBPUSD rate.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index measures the development of the manufacturing sector in New York State. It is calculated based on a survey of 200 largest manufacturing enterprises. A reading above zero points to increased manufacturing activity, while the one below zero indicates a decline. Stronger-than-expected data may provide significant support to the US dollar. The forecast for 16 September 2024 suggests that the reading will remain in negative territory at -4.1, which is still negative for the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for 16 September 2024 does not provide arguments in favour of the US currency, so the pound sterling has every chance to continue its upward momentum after the correction.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCHF declines: the US dollar is in a disadvantageous position

The USDCHF pair continues to fall, with the Swiss franc benefiting from the weakness of the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 17 September 2024.

USDCHF technical analysis

The USDCHF H4 chart shows that the market has completed a growth wave, reaching 0.8549. A corrective structure has fully formed today, 17 September 2024, aiming for 0.8434. A consolidation range is currently developing above this level.



The USDCHF pair remains under pressure until the end of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

Read more - USDCHF Forecast

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD analysis: euro strengthens despite positive US data

The EURUSD rate is experiencing its third consecutive trading session of gains, although it remains below the critical resistance level of 1.1200. In this EURUSD analysis for 20 September 2024, we explore the latest market movements, provide a EURUSD forecast, and offer trading signals for the pair.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US jobless claims: the number of new jobless claims in the US dropped to 219k, the lowest in four months, reflecting a robust labour market
• Secondary home sales: US home sales declined by 2.5% in August, but lower mortgage rates might drive sales shortly
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: the index rose unexpectedly to 1.7 in September, surpassing forecasts and possibly supporting the USD
• EURUSD forecast for 20 September 2024: the outlook remains bullish for today, with the euro expected to continue its upward trend, targeting a potential rise to 1.1222

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar remains under pressure due to the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle, which may indicate a likely rise in the EURUSD pair. The 50 basis points cut, the first one since 2020, was more significant than expected by the market. Currently, the probability of the Fed lowering the interest rate by 50 basis points at the next meeting on 7 November 2024 is 42.9%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis point cut is 57.1%.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 12,000 last week to 219,000, the lowest level in four months. Economists had expected the figure to remain at 230k, and the current decline indicates a robust US labour market.

Secondary home sales in the US fell 2.5% in August to 3.86 million homes at an annualised rate. Despite this decline, analysts believe that the recent reduction in mortgage rates could boost sales in the coming months.

The manufacturing activity index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed an unexpected increase in September after a sharp drop in August, which could support the US Dollar within the EURUSD forecast for today. According to the latest data, the index of general industrial activity rose from a seven-month low of -7.0 in August to 1.7, exceeding the forecasts of economists who expected the index at -1.0.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD forecast: USD remains under pressure

The GBPUSD rate has risen for the fourth consecutive trading session, remaining below the resistance level at 1.3340. Read more in our analysis for today - 23 September 2024.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of GBPUSD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 1.3278. Currently, the range is extended downwards to the level of 1.3222 and upwards to the level of 1.3333. Today, 23 September 2024, we expect an upward exit from this range.



Despite the positive UK retail sales data, falling consumer sentiment indicates potential risks for the UK economy, which may limit further GBPUSD growth.

Read more - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team