Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Brent crude oil continues its upward correction, trading near 74.00 USD

The Brent price is experiencing an upward correction, bolstered by investor optimism following the recent Fed rate cut. However, despite the current correction, the overall trend remains downward, and further declines are possible. For more detailed insights, read our Brent analysis and market outlook for today, 24 September 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• US data: today, the market is anticipating the release of the API oil inventories data, which is expected to provide a significant indicator for the short-term direction of Brent prices
• Current trend: an upward correction of oil prices is underway within a broader downtrend
• Brent forecast for 24 September 2024: 75.00 and 70.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are seeing a corrective rise after finding support in the demand zone of 68.00-68.50 USD. This price rebound is driven by the US stock market strengthening and growing investor optimism over the Federal Reserve’s shift toward monetary easing.

Today, all eyes are on the API’s report on oil reserves in the US, which could provide further news on Brent’s trajectory. A decline in inventories may offer short-term support for Brent prices, while an increase could generate a bearish signal, potentially accelerating the downtrend. Additionally, tomorrow’s report from the EIA will provide more clarity on the future Brent forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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EURUSD analysis: weak economic data from Europe limits the pair’s growth

The EURUSD rate is correcting after testing a four-week high. Read more in our detailed EURUSD analysis for 25 September 2024, including key signals and market outlook.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD broke through the 1.1180 level and continues its upward trajectory towards 1.1222, which represents a local target. Based on the technical EURUSD outlook for today, 25 September 2024, we anticipate a potential correction to 1.1144 after reaching this target.



EURUSD’s growth, driven by Fed rate cut expectations, could be limited by weak European economic data, which has heightened fears of a potential economic slowdown.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD strengthens due to China’s stimulus measures

AUDUSD is regaining some of its lost ground after falling more than 1% the previous day. Read more details in our analysis for 26 September 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Support for the Chinese economy stimulates demand for Australian exports, which helps AUDUSD to strengthen
• The Australian Consumer Price Index declined to 2.7% in August, falling within the central bank’s target range
• The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a tight policy, keeping the interest rate at 4.35% despite the falling inflation rate
• AUDUSD forecast for 26 September 2024: 0.6910 and 0.7017

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after bouncing from the support level at 0.6815. According to analysts, the Australian dollar is strengthening due to China’s stimulus package, which may boost demand in Australia’s largest export market.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August 2024, below market forecasts of 2.8% and worse than July’s 3.5%. This is the lowest inflation rate since August 2021 and the first time it has fallen within the central bank’s target range in three years. The inflation decline resulted from the energy bill compensation programme, which led to a 17.9% fall in electricity prices and a reduction in the cost of motor fuel.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the key rate at 4.35% at its September meeting and indicated that the current policy rate could be maintained for an extended period. However, the current slowdown in inflation reinforces expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year. Governor Michele Bullock has indicated that interest rates will remain unchanged for now. This hawkish stance sets the Reserve Bank of Australia apart from other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, which has begun to ease its monetary policy to support the economy. For today’s AUDUSD forecast, this may support the pair’s growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD analysis: the pair is poised to rise as the US dollar declines for 4 weeks in a row

EURUSD is resuming its upward movement. The market is anticipating a significant easing of the Fed’s monetary policy in the future. Read more details in our analysis for 27 September 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EURUSD, the market received support at 1.1121. A growth wave to 1.1164 and a correction to 1.1125 have occurred. Today, 27 September 2024, the growth impulse to 1.1188 was realised. We expect the EURUSD to correct to 1.1155.



EURUSD may continue to grow. For the US dollar, it would mark the fourth week of decline.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD rises amid US inflation slowdown

The EURUSD rate is strengthening but remains at a strong resistance level of 1.1200. Read more in our analysis for 30 September 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose by 0.1% in August, while the annual growth was 2.2%
• The Core PCE index increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August
• Initial jobless claims fell to 218k, a 4-month low
• The likelihood of the Fed rate cut by 50 basis points decreased to 54%, and a cut by 25 basis points increased to 46%
• EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2024: 1.1222

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD is slightly higher on Monday as the US dollar remained under pressure amid poor economic data reinforcing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in August compared to July, while the annualised growth rate was the lowest since February 2021, at 2.2%, versus the forecasted 2.3%.

The Core PCE (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, which does not include food and energy prices, also rose 0.1% in August from the previous month and increased by 2.7% annually. The Core PCE index is the Fed’s key indicator to assess inflation risks.

At the same time, data on jobless claims demonstrated the labour market’s resilience. The number of initial applications for benefits decreased by 4,000 to 218,800, the lowest level for the last four months. Analysts had forecasted an increase to 223,400.

Investors await the September US employment report for further signals about the Fed’s policy. The probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the next meeting fell to 54.0% from 60.3%, while the odds of a 25-point cut rose to 46.0% from 39.7%. Given the weakness of the US dollar and the regulator’s subsequent actions, today’s EURUSD forecast still holds potential for a breakthrough of the 1.1200 level.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent crude oil declines moderately, falling below 72.00 USD

Brent price failed to overcome the resistance level at 75.00 USD last week and turned downwards. The daily trend is downward, and the decline may continue - read about it in our Brent analysis for today, October 1, 2024.

Brent technical analysis

Brent oil completed its upward correction and reversed downward from the resistance level of 75.00 USD. Prices have since fallen to the 70.00 USD area, where temporary support from buyers was found. The daily trend remains bearish, suggesting further declines may occur.



Brent quotes have formed a downward reversal from the 75.00 USD resistance level. Today’s API oil reserves data could significantly influence Brent’s price forecast.

Read more - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) reverses down from resistance at 2,670 USD

Gold (XAUUSD) experienced a reversal after attempting to break through the resistance at 2,670 USD. Today, market participants will shift their focus to the US labour market data from ADP, which could significantly impact the XAUUSD outlook. Read more in our analysis for today, 2 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting today's Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) statistics on the US labour market, which will serve as a potential signal for the next moves in XAUUSD
• Current trend: a correction within the uptrend is underway
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 October 2024: 2,685 and 2,630

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are currently in a moderate downward correction after reaching an all-time high of 2,685 USD last week. Yesterday, XAUUSD prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today's employment data from ADP is expected to reveal 120,000 new jobs. If the data falls below the forecast, it could pressure the USD and strengthen gold, signalling a bullish trend for XAUUSD. Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, it would bolster the US dollar, contributing to a bearish XAUUSD prediction and potentially signalling a decline in gold prices.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD analysis: the market remains cautious as AUDUSD continues to decline

The AUDUSD is steadily moving away from its recent highs, with the strength of the US dollar applying consistent downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). More details can be found in our AUDUSD analysis and forecast for 3 October 2024.

AUDUSD technical analysis

Regarding technical analysis, the H4 chart for the AUDUSD pair shows the first wave of decline targeting 0.6845. The price is consolidating around 0.6895 as of 3 October 2024, with an expected breakout to the downside towards the target level of 0.6845.



AUDUSD is moving away from the 19-month high amid deteriorating external sentiment.

Read more - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY halts growth as the market pauses for further developments

USDJPY growth halted on Friday as the market paused and awaits further developments. More details and insights are available in our USDJPY analysis and forecast for today, 4 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is consolidating
• The market paused following a 3% decline in the yen over the past week
• USDJPY forecast for 4 October 2024: 145.22 and 143.2

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the USDJPY rate reached a high of 146.27 before stabilising. The Japanese yen has slightly recovered after its sharp decline of over 3% against the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, which softened its outlook on interest rates.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reiterated that current economic conditions do not justify a rate hike. Meanwhile, the yen faced additional pressure from the strong appreciation of the US dollar. Recent US economic data signals that the Federal Reserve may not reduce interest rates as aggressively as initially expected.

The overall USDJPY forecast remains neutral as the market assesses these fundamental factors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD hits a 2-month low: the US dollar regains favour

The EURUSD pair continues to decline, with the market increasingly favouring the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 7 October 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has reached the downward wave’s local target of 1.0951. A correction towards 1.1037 (testing from below) is possible today, 7 October 2024. Subsequently, another decline in the EURUSD rate could follow, with 1.0946 as the first target.



The EURUSD pair remains under intense pressure due to the growing market preference for the US dollar.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team