Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Murrey Math Lines 22.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is trading inside the “overbought area”. In this case, the pair is expected to break +1/8 and then resume falling towards the support at 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks +2/8 to the upside. After that, the line at the chart will be redrawn, thus indicating new upside targets.



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The Euro is saving strengths. Overview for 22.10.2019

On Tuesday morning, the major currency pair is waiting for the Brexit news and saving strengths in anticipation of the ECB meeting.
EURUSD is consolidating without any particular direction on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1155.

So far, there is no news relating to the Brexit as the Parliament Brexit Vote is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. That’s why the best thing for investors to do is saving strengths.

This Thursday, October 24th, the European Central Bank is set to have another meeting. There are two key points here. The first one is that this will be the last meeting of the regulator in 2019. The second one – it will be the last meeting Mario Draghi acts as the ECB Governor. On November 1st, 2019, Christine Lagarde will take the office and become the first woman in the position of ECB President. It is her, who will assess the results of the QE announced earlier and expand the list of stimulus tools. Sooner or later, she will have to do this, there are no doubts about it.

The tools the ECB has aren’t very numerous. It might well be that the regulator will have to slowly decrease the interest rate, but let's not run ahead.

it is obvious that the last ECB meeting “hosted” by Mario Draghi may pass without any disturbances, although one should admit that the European economy has significantly deteriorated since the previous meeting. Market players are waiting for an assessment of existing problems, at least, and that may weaken the Euro.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6841; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6820 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6945. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6775. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6675. After breaking the descending channel’s upside border and fixing above 0.6905, the price may continue moving upwards.



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They are selling the Pound on Wednesday. Overview for 23.10.2019

GBPUSD is moving downwards after House of Commons of the United Kingdom approved the Brexit deal.

The British Pound is falling against the USD on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2860.

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has finally succeeded in persuading the Parliament to approve Brexit deal her earlier made with the European Union. It took two ballots, the first one last Saturday, which failed, and the second one this Tuesday, which finally succeeded: 329 votes for and 299 votes against.

However, this approval doesn’t guarantee that the same House of Commons will have no problems in quickly ratifying the deal. However, it’s a very important step for Johnson, because he managed to pass at least the first obstacle of his way.

Right now, no one can be sure that the Brexit will really start on October 31st as was scheduled before. The ratification itself may be a serious problem. Johnson said that the EU wouldn’t likely agree to postpone the deadline one more time, that’s why he was trying to force the process, even if the British policymakers failed to ratify the exiting procedure and refused to implement it on the legislative level.

It is currently known that the United Kingdom asked the EU to approve rescheduling the Brexit date from October 31st, 2019 to January 31st, 2020. However, there hasn’t been any news from the European policymakers yet.

Everything that is happening right now is not good for the Pound. Yes, the procedure is underway, but it is too slow to be very productive.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 24.10.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the convergence made the pair start a new growth; by now, it has fixed above 23.6% fibo. In the nearest future, AUDUSD may start a new pullback and return to this level. After the pullback, the correctional uptrend may continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 0.6909 and 0.6983 respectively. The key support is the fractal at 0.6670.



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The Euro is keeping balance. Overview for 24.10.2019

On Thursday, EURUSD remains stable; it is still waiting for the news.

The major currency pair is quite inactive on Thursday morning – there will be a busy day ahead. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1135.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the Consumer Confidence in the Euro Area deteriorated and was -8 points in October after being -7 points in the previous month. It’s not good news for the European currency, but not surprising at the same time.

There will be a lot of October numbers from Europe today, such as the Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Germany, France, and the Euro Area itself. All reports are preliminary and barely expected to have any influence on the major currency pair. However, they may provide insight into what is currently happening in the region.

In the afternoon, the European Central Bank is scheduled to have another meeting. Everything has already been said, but the regulator’s comments might be interesting.

Later in the afternoon, market players should pay attention to the September Durable Goods Orders report from the USA, which is expected to show -0.5% m/m after adding 0.2% m/m the month before. The indicator is extremely volatile and changes all the time, that’s why one should carefully read the components of the report even if the numbers are weak.

Apart from this, the USA is going to report on the New Home Sales in September, which may drop from 713K to 710K. This decline is not critical and can be easily explained by the current imperfect situation on the real estate market.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 25.10.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues forming the third descending impulse. Possibly, today the pair may break 1.1080 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the predicted target at 1.1057.



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The Euro is trying to regain positions. Overview for 25.10.2019

EURUSD fell after the ECB meeting. Right now, it is trying to recover.

The major currency pair is correcting at the end of the trading week after an unsuccessful Thursday. The current quote for the instream is 1.1119.

During the meeting that took place yesterday, the European Central Bank left all key interest rates unchanged: the benchmark rate at 0%, the deposit facility rate at -0.5%. A negative rate is one of the tools the ECB has to influence its monetary policy, which means that banks have to pay the regulator for keeping their money, but not vice versa. As a result, the ECB motivates banks to invest money in real sectors or businesses, but not very successfully so far.

In the comments, the ECB said that businesses paid attention to the increase of pressure on the value of labor power. It means that conditions on the labor market are getting more complicated and a weak impulse from this sector may slow down the inflating in the future.

According to the regulator, the stimulus programs launched in September will provide the Area’s economy with monetary incentives. Later, it may support households and small companies.

The ECB intends to continue its loose monetary policy for a long time. they said it was necessary for keeping the inflation close to target levels.

Right after the meeting, investors lost interest in the Euro – they decided that the regulator had already run out of fiscal tools and next time it would have to cut the rate.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 28.10.2019 (GOLD, NZDUSD)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. After forming another Hammer reversal pattern close to the support level and reversing, XAUUSD has completed one more reversal pattern, Engulfing, which may indicate a possible correction before further growth. In this case, the upside target will be at 1525.70. At the same time, we shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may resume falling to reach 1488.99.



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They stopped selling the Euro. Overview for 28.10.2019

On Monday, EURUSD stopped falling; right now, it is consolidating close to week’s lows.

The major currency pair is quite calm early in the week, but there will be a lot of reasons to be more active later this week. The current quote for EURUSD is 1.1088.

There will be several events that may influence the Euro behavior. First of all, it’s a meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The key anticipated thing is whether the regulator is going to continue cutting the rate or not in the future, that’s why investors’ attention will be focused on the comments following the meeting. As for the rate decision itself, no one has any doubts that the regulator will decrease it down to 1.50-1.75% this time. However, this was already shown up in EURUSD prices, so there might be no significant fluctuations at all.

Secondly, this Friday the ECB Governor Mario Draghi will step aside from his position in favor of Christine Lagarde. Market players do not expect any serious changes in the regulator’s policy, but they are surely eager to hear first comments from Lagarde, a new head of the ECB, who is a very experienced monetary policymaker. Mid-term market expectations imply that the regulator might have to change its monetary policy earlier than predicted before due to a decline in the Euro Area GDP and a lot of targeted problems in several European countries.

There will be some statistics worth paying attention to. For example, the USA is scheduled to report on the GDP for the third quarter. Although the report isn’t likely to contain any numbers to impress investors, the market will be volatile whatever the case.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.