Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Euro plunged to its three weeks lows. Overview for 06.11.2019

Bears continue pushing EURUSD; investors are waiting for the trade agreement.

The major currency pair slowed down its decline on Wednesday but remains pretty weak. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1076.

The key source of positive for the USD is the anticipation of the trade agreement between the USA and China, the first part of which may be concluded in the nearest future. For investors, it would mean an immediate reduction of any possible risks. These expectations are exactly what support the USD right now and make “safe haven” currencies go down.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the PPI in the Euro Area added 0.1% m/m in September after losing 0.5% m/m in August. The actual reading matched the expected one and surprised no one.

On the other hand, the statistics published by the USA in the evening were quite interesting. The final report on the Markit Services PMI showed 50.6 points in October after being 51.0 points the month before. At the same time, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI went from 52.6 points in September to 54.7 points in October. As a rule, we rely on the ISM report, which is currently showing a significant improvement in the sector. The thing that is really good is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, which increased from 50.4 points to 53.7 points.

In the afternoon, the Euro Area and some of its countries, such as Spain, Italy, France, and Germany are scheduled to publish final reports on their Manufacturing PMIs for October. Moreover, the Euro Area will report on Retail Sales in September, which is expected to be rather weak. The evening statistics from the USA are mostly minor, that’s why the key focus will remain on the US-China trade talks.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 07.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)-

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6870; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6890 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6745. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6955. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7075.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD

The Euro continues falling. Overview for 07.11.2019

EURUSD has been falling for the fourth consecutive trading session; market players are hoping for the better.

The major currency pair continues falling on Thursday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1062.

The key catalyst on the market remains the same: investors are hoping that the USA and China, who are actively working on the first phase of their trade agreement, will sign it in the nearest future. Market expectations imply November, which means that it may happen onу ща these days. This, in its turn, reduces the interest in “safe haven” assets and makes the American currency stronger.

It’s obvious that the parties, both the USA and China, need the deal. However, the time passes by, negotiations are impeded, although news media says that they keep going.

Yesterday, the Euro Area reported on the Retail Sales in September, which added 0.1% m/m, the same as expected. However, it’s worse than the August reading, which was revised upwards, from +0.3% m/m to +0.6% m/m, and that’s a good signal. Probably, season sales had their effect.

There will be a meeting of the Eurogroup today, while the European Commission is going to publish its Economic Forecasts. If there are no surprises here, the Euro will remain under pressure from the current drivers and catalysts. Later in the evening, the USA is scheduled to report on the Consumer Credit in September, which is expected to go from 17.9B to 15.6B.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 08.11.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1060, EURUSD has reached the short-term downside target at 1.1036. Today, the pair may grow to return to 1.1060 and then resume falling to reach 1.1027. After that, the instrument may start a new correction with the target at 1.1077.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

The Yen is retreating. Overview for 08.11.2019

USDJPY intends to continue growing on Friday; investors no longer need “safe haven” assets.

At the end of the first November week, the Japanese Yen is retreating against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 109.30.

Market players are currently showing little interest in “safe haven” assets because they are sure that the USA and China will sign their trade agreement in the nearest future. In fact, these expectations are keeping them afloat for already a week, but nothing has changed so far.

The statistics published by Japan in the morning showed that the Household Spending skyrocketed in September by 9.5% y/y, which is much better than market expectations (+7.1% y/y) and the August reading (+1.0% y/y). However, it’s not surprising: most likely, consumers decided to spend a lot of money before the government introduced a new sales tax. This, in its turn, means that the October number may be pretty disappointing, at least.

Japanese consumers are very careful in their expenses and this tendency continues for years. The indicator behavior in September can easily be explained by economic uncertainty: the Bank of Japan provides stimulus to the country’s economy, but can’t jump-start economic growth.

The Leading Indicators report showed 92.2% in September, the same as expected. The month before, it was 91.9%.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 11.11.2019 (USDCAD, AUDUSD)

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the descending channel’s upside border, USDCAD has formed Doji reversal pattern close to the resistance level. Right now, the pair is trying to reverse. Later, the price may continue falling towards the channel’s upside border at 1.3118. However, we shouldn’t ignore an alternative scenario, according to which the instrument may break the resistance level and continue growing towards 1.3294.



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The Euro starts consolidating. Overview for 11.11.2019

The major currency pair is quite confident early in another November week.

EURUSD is no longer falling this morning; right now, it is consolidating. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1026.

Last Friday, the US President Donald Trump said that he wasn’t ready yet to consider the possibility of completely removing import tariffs on Chinese goods introduced earlier. That’s not good news, because investors are already tensed enough because of the trade agreement between these countries, which hasn’t been signed yet.

There were such rumors before: all these talks that after signing the first phase of the trade deal the parties might remove import duties on each other’s goods crashed into the White House’s tough stance.

However, right now there is neither fixed date of signing the agreement nor other nuances or details. Nevertheless, investors believe that the deal will be made in the nearest future because both the USA and China need it badly.

The USA celebrates Veterans Day today, so the markets are off. The Euro Area won’t provide any interesting statistics as well, that’s why investors in the major currency pair are left to their own devices. The European numbers that might really attract market players’ attention will be published not earlier than Thursday: the preliminary report on the Euro Area’s GDP in the third quarter of 2019.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Murrey Math Lines 12.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, the pair is trading inside the “overbought area”. In this case, the pair is expected to break 8/8 and then fall towards the support at 7/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price rebounds from 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may resume growing to reach the resistance at +1/8.



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The Pound got a chance to recover. Overview for 12.11.2019

Lacking any external news, GBPUSD is slowly correcting after falling earlier.

Last week, the British Pound weakened enough to get a chance for a correction now. the current quote for the instrument is 1.2862.

These couple of days the United Kingdom is very active in publishing macroeconomic statistics. Not to say all reports are very important, but some of them may be considered quite interesting. For example, the British GDP is looking alive and healthy in the third quarter: the revised report showed +0.3% q/q after 0.2% q/q in the previous quarter, which is an excellent piece of news. To be more specific, in September the indicator lost 0.1% m/m, the same as expected, while in August it showed -0.2% m/m.

The Industrial Production was -0.3% m/m in September after losing 0.7% m/m in the previous month. The indicator was expected to fall, but only by 0.1%. However, the actual reading is also not too bad given the economic turbulence in the country. The Manufacturing Production dropped by 0.4% m/m after losing 0.7% m/m the month before.

So, this is what we see: companies, in hopes of settlement of the Brexit deal in the nearest future (later, we may find out that it’s not going to happen), became more active and customers “returned the compliment”. The October reading will probably be weaker, because by that time investors may understand that miracles don’t happen and the Brexit is extended once again.

Today, the UK is scheduled to report on the employment market in September, which may also be very interesting. Most likely, September readings on the Unemployment Rate and the Average Earnings Index won’t change a lot, but if they do, investors will have something, bad or good, to respond to.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 13.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6834; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6865 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6725. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6915. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7005.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD