Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Yen stopped growing, but not for long. Overview for 20.11.2019

USDJPY stopped falling on Wednesday, but the decline potential remains.

The Japanese Yen stopped falling against the USD in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 108.54.

Demand for the Japanese currency may return at any moment: the US President Donald Trump yesterday once again threatened China to introduce more import tariffs if the trade agreement wasn’t signed on conditions favorable to the White House.

In the morning, Japan reported on the Trade Balance in October, which showed that the Export plummeted by 9.2% y/y. The indicator has been decreasing for the eleventh month in a row, and that’s the longest period since 2016. The components of the report show that key contributions to the current decline were made by raw materials (-16.5%), manufactured goods (-13.4%), machinery (-12.9%), chemicals (-9.7%), electrical machinery (-8.3%), transport equipment (-7.4%), and foodstuff (-5.2%).

More than half of the Japanese export goes to Asian countries, so among the main trading partners in Asia, exports were mainly dragged by sales to China (-10.3%), Korea (-23.1%), Singapore (-14.6%), and Thailand (-14.6%). The Export to the USA lost 11.4% y/y.

The Import in Japan plunged by 14.8% y/y, although market expectations implied -16.0% y/y.

As one can see, the outside pressure on the Japanese economy is growing: the country is very export-oriented and that’s making it suffer due to global trade wars. All previous delivery schemes, investments, and trade mechanisms stopped working, thus having a negative impact on the Japanese trade balance. As long as the USA and China continue their talks, the situation for Japan will get worse.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 21.11.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing the descending wave, AUDUSD is correcting towards 61.8%. In the future, the price is expected to finish the pullback and resume falling to reaсh 76.0% fibo at 0.6732. However, the key downside target is the fractal low at 0.6670.



Read more - Fibonacci Retracements Analysis AUDUSD, USDCAD

The USD did want to grow, but failed nevertheless. Overview for 21.11.2019

On Thursday, the major currency pair is consolidating after a pretty volatile trading session yesterday.

EURUSD got into the turbulence zone yesterday, but investors calmed down quite quickly. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

Investors’ attention is still focused on US-China trade talks. The talks were put on hold, which makes market players very nervous. To get things even more complicated, the US Senate passed a bill that implies annual confirmation of the Hongkong autonomy. Beijing already stated that it would brook no interference into the country’s internal affairs from any third parties, and this story might complicate further trade negotiations. It may well be that the agreement won’t be signed until the end of this year, thus increasing investors’ demand for “safe haven” assets.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes published yesterday says that there is no need to continue cutting the rate unless the country’s economy gest much worse. The regulator said it believed that the external uncertainty got a bit lower and called the previous rate cut insurance against economic slowdown.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar offers the Existing Home Sales report for October, which is expected to show 5.49M after 5.38M the month before. Improvement in this component may provide support to the USD.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 22.11.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is forming one more descending impulse towards 1.1047. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to reach 1.1072, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the pair may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1027.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

The Yen has corrected. Overview for 22.11.2019

On Friday, USDJPY is slowly growing; the Yen paid no attention to the statistics on inflation.

The Japanese Yen is retreating a little bit against the USD at the end of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 108.63.

Demand for the Yen is somehow reducing due to some balance in the US-China trade talks. Nothing in particular, but investors calmed down.

In the morning, Japan reported on inflation in October. The National Core CPI added 0.4% y/y after showing +0.3% y/y in September. The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy expanded by 0.7% y/y, which is more than the month before (+0.5% y/y).

The components of the report show that the furniture and household utensils added 4.2%, while clothes & footwear showed +1.2%. At the same time, electricity lost 1.0%, gas 0.4%, transportation & communication 1.0%, education 7.8%, and miscellaneous goods & services dropped by 2.9%.

Everything would be fine if it weren't for understanding that the inflation surge is extremely temporary: people were buying everything that could become much more expensive than usual before the VAT increase, and that can be clearly seen in the components. Prices will stop rising as early as in November, thus putting pressure on the country’s inflation readings.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 25.11.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the descending tendency continues. After forming Harami reversal pattern, EURUSD is trading in the middle of the channel. We may assume that after reversing the price may form a slight correction and then resume falling to reach 1.0970. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may continue growing towards 1.1111.



Read more - Japanese Candlesticks Analysis EURUSD, USDJPY

EURUSD intends to wait for news. Overview for 25.11.2019

The major currency pair is waiting for the news and moving pretty calmly early in another November week.

On Monday, EURUSD is barely moving; investors are still waiting for the news relating to the US-China trade talks. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1025.

According to Bloomberg, last weekend “China said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the U.S.” Market players liked this piece of news: it means that the parties are ready to discuss and solve one of the most topical issues in their trade wars. However, there was nothing more, that’s why public markets are quiet once again.

The statistics published by the USA last Friday were in favor of the USD. The Markit Manufacturing PMI increased up to 52.2 points in November after being 51.3 points the month before. The Markit Services PMI went from 50.6 points in October to 51.6 points this month. Both improvements are very good, but one should remember that the official numbers are usually a little bit worse.

The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was 96.8 points in November against 95.7 points in the previous month and the expected reading of 95.8 points. The indicator stability is very important for the assessment of future demand.

Today is going to be rather neutral for the major currency pair. It’s highly unlikely that there might be any news relating to trade talks, while the macroeconomic calendar is quite empty.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Murrey Math Lines 26.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, the pair is moving below 3/8. In this case, the pair is expected to test 3/8, rebound from it, and then resume falling towards the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing to reach the resistance at 5/8.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines AUDUSD, NZDUSD

The Euro is sluggish. Overview for 26.11.2019

The major currency pair stopped falling; right now, it is consolidating, but it’s not for long.

EURUSD stopped sliding down. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1013.

Nothing interesting is happening in financial markets at the moment, so the major currency pair is barely moving as well. Yesterday, the American and Chinese officials talked on the phone and both said that it was necessary to continue negotiations. Nothing special, the same words that were said before on several occasions. In the meantime, investors may finally be tired of waiting endlessly for any progress and bears will take charge.

There was nothing important or interesting in the information flow, so market players prefer to save their strengths.

The only thing that makes shake financial market right now is the macroeconomic calendar. In the evening, the USA is scheduled to report on the Trade Balance for October. Apart from this, the country will publish preliminary numbers on the Wholesale Inventories, which may recover after plunging in September, and the New Home Sales (both for October), which is expected to show 708K after being 701K in the previous month.

One more report that is worth paying attention to is the CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to go from 125.9 points in October to 126.9 points in November. If it does, this will support the USD.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 27.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6774; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6785 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6680. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6840. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6935.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD