Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The New Zealand Dollar skyrocketed. Overview for 13.11.2019

On Wednesday, NZDUSD updated its weekly highs after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the key interest rate intact.

The New Zealand Dollar cheered up after the RBNZ’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged during its November meeting. The current quote for NZDUSD is 0.6401.

So, during its regular meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t change the key interest rate and left it at 1.0%. However, market players expected it to be cut by 25 basis points, down to 0.75%.

The fact that the country’s Central Bank decided not to cut the rate is quite surprising, at least: the regulator was expected to follow the path of other Central Banks and loosen its monetary policy to support the global trend. However, it seems like the situation in the New Zealand economy allows to stay away from global tendencies and follow events in the world closely. At the same time, it’s quite obvious that lower interest rates might help the country somehow because New Zealand couldn’t escape global trade wars.

Last time the RBNZ cut its key rate was in August, by 50 basis points. Probably, it was a preventive measure by the regulator, which now helps to avoid any abrupt movements.

Keeping the key rate unchanged turned out to be a very pleasant surprise for the New Zealand currency.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 14.11.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the divergence made the pair complete its growth at 38.2% fibo and start a new descending wave, which has already reached 50.0% fibo. The next downside targets may be 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.6769 and 0.6732 respectively. However, the key downside target is the low at 0.6670.



Read more - Fibonacci Retracements Analysis AUDUSD, USDCAD

A stressful day for the Aussie. Overview for 14.11.2019

On Thursday, AUDUSD is falling influenced by the numbers from Australia and China.

The Australian Dollar is boosting its decline against the USD on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 0.6797.

The statistics from Australia published earlier today didn’t impress. The Unemployment Rate went from 5.2% in September to 5.3% in October, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change showed -19K in October against the expected reading of +16.2K. By the way, the September reading was revised downwards, from 14.7 to 12.5K.

Later, China also published several reports that were quite disappointing. The Chinese statistics are very important for Australia because China is the country’s key trade and economic partner. So, the Industrial Production in China added only 4.7% y/y in October after showing +5.8% y/y the month before. The indicator was expected to fall a little bit (+5.5% y/y), but not as much as it really did.

The Retail Sales expanded only by 7.2% y/y in October after adding 7.8% y/y in the previous month.

Reasons for this decline are pretty obvious: uncertainty with the trade agreement between the USA and China makes both manufacturers and consumers avid any abrupt movements.

On the other hand, the Unemployment Rate improved a bit, 5.1% in October after 5.2% in September. However, this reading couldn’t prevent bears from pushing the pair downwards.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 15.11.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached the target at 1.0988; right now, it is moving upwards to reach 1.1030. Later, the market may start a new correction towards 1.1004 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1050.



Read more - Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD

The Euro reached stability on Friday. Overview for 15.11.2019

At the end of this trading week, the major currency pair slowed down its decline and started consolidating.

EURUSD stopped falling, but for how long? The current quote for the instrument is 1.1019.

The second estimate of the Euro Area’s GDP showed no changes, +0.2% q/q, the same as before. But the statistics from the USA were more optimistic: the PPI added 0.4% m/m in October after losing 0.3% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of +0.3% m/m. The Core PPI showed +0.3% m/m after being -0.3% m/m in September.

The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke yesterday, said that uncertainty with import tariffs was paralyzing activities of American companies. Due to this, investment issue also remains unsettled and that’s not good for the economy. Powell also noticed that the American national debt was growing faster than the country’s economic system and that’s not acceptable. Sooner or later, the “ballooning” national debt will make the USA put its budget into order, but not right now.

The labor market was defined by Powell as stable. He mentioned that there was a pretty high demand in the sector by historical standards.

In the evening, the USA will publish an interesting report on the Retail Sales in October. The indicator is expected to add 0.1% m/m after losing 0.3% m/m in September, but the actual reading may be even better. It would be good for the USD.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 18.11.2019 (GOLD, NZDUSD)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. By now, XAUUSD has completed several reversal patterns, including Hammer, close to the support level. At the moment, the pair is expected to complete the correction and then try to reverse. The upside target is at 1484.00. At the same time, we shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may continue falling towards 1441.00 and update its closest lows.



Read more - Japanese Candlesticks Analysis GOLD, NZDUSD

The Euro keeps its hope alive. Overview for 18.11.2019

On Monday, the major currency pair is hoping to continue growing.

EURUSD remains “in the black” on Monday. Demand for “safe haven” assets will be quite low as long as there is any hope whatsoever that the US-China trade talks end in success. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1060.

There won’t be any interesting reports from the USA and Europe in today’s economic calendar.

This week, the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which investors may find interesting. The possibility is that the regulator may provide details of its decision to loosen the monetary policy, as well as hint at further activities and possible rate cuts if necessary.

The major part of the document may be devoted to the discussion on what economic outlook should be for the Fed to change its stance.

As a rule, the FOMC Meeting Minutes is perceived as a very vivid speculative driver. It may well be that in case there are no other catalysts at the moment, this one will work just fine.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Murrey Math Lines 19.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair has rebounded from 7/8. In this case, the pair is expected to resume growing towards the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 7/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the support at 6/8.



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The Australian Dollar is under pressure again. Overview for 19.11.2019

AUDUSD is falling on Tuesday morning; the pair remains under bearish pressure.

The Australian Dollar is retreating against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6799.

In the morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia published its latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which couldn’t surprise anybody: the regulator continued following the labor market and assessing external background, which was suffering from global wars.

At the same time, it’s obvious that major business processes in Australia are slowing down: market players’ attention is completely focused on the trade talks between the US and Chinese officials, who just have no luck signing the first phase of the trade agreement.

Yesterday, China cut the repo rate for the first time since 2015. This is how the People's Bank of China is giving a boost to the country’s economy and financial system. This news can be perceived as China’s readiness for lengthy negotiations and that’s not a good signal for all risk-related currencies.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.11.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6813; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6825 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6725. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6875. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6965.



Read more - Ichimoku Cloud Analysis AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD