Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

GBP attempts to rise. Overview for 11.06.2024

The British pound sterling is trying to rise against the US dollar. The current GBPUSD exchange rate stands at 1.2736.

The pound has stabilised after hitting a new local low last week. The UK employment market data, industrial production, construction activity, and trade balance figures are due for release. The data are expected to confirm an economic slowdown in April.

The unemployment rate will likely remain at 4.30%, and average earnings are anticipated to increase by 5.70%.

At its next meeting on 20 June, the Bank of England will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per annum, its peak since 2008. UK inflation is clearly reducing, but not fast enough.

Additionally, there is some uncertainty about the country’s elections in early July, which may exert pressure on the pound.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 12.06.2024 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has breached the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 7/8 (159.37) level, break above it, and rise to the resistance at 8/8 (162.50). A breakout below the 5/8 (153.12) support level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential decline to 4/8 (150.00).



On M15, a breakout above the upper line of the VoltyChannel would provide an additional signal supporting the price increase.



USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD quotes are in the overbought area on D1. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 8/8 (1.3671) level and decline to the support at 7/8 (1.3549). Surpassing the +1/8 (1.3793) level could cancel this scenario, leading to a potential rise to the +2/8 (1.3916) resistance level.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD experienced significant volatility. Overview for 13.06.2024

The primary currency pair is looking for support after a turbulent rise on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0805.

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair faced a massive flow of data from both the US Federal Reserve and statistical reports. The Fed’s June meeting ended neutrally, with the interest rate remaining at 5.25% per annum, which was in line with expectations. However, the Federal Reserve’s comments, hinting at a rate cut this year closer to December, and the perceived aggressiveness of the Fed’s rhetoric regarding steps in 2025, have left the market in a state of anticipation for an active interest rate reduction.

The US Consumer Price Index dropped in May, exceeding forecasts. Inflation stood at 3.3% year-on-year, remaining flat on a month-to-month basis. Core inflation decreased to 3.4% year-on-year from the previous 3.6%. This development indicates the easing of price pressure, a positive signal for the economy and the Federal Reserve.

The market has become overly sensitive to statistical data releases. The US Federal Reserve created this foundation, having previously stated that it planned to gather as much data as possible to identify patterns.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Murrey Math Lines 14.06.2024 (Brent, S&P 500)

Brent
Brent crude oil quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on D1, indicating a prevailing downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to break the 2/8 (81.25) level, rebound, and fall to the support at 1/8 (78.12). Surpassing the 3/8 (84.38) level could invalidate this scenario, propelling the quotes to the resistance at 4/8 (87.50).



On M15, a breakout of the VoltyChannel lower line will provide an additional signal for a price decline.



S&P 500
S&P 500 quotes and the RSI are in the overbought areas on D1. In this situation, the price is expected to breach the +1/8 (5312.5) level and decline to the 8/8 (5000.0) support level. The scenario could be invalidated by surpassing the +2/8 (5625.0) level, which might reshuffle the Murrey indication, setting new price movement targets.



Read more - Murrey Math Lines (Brent, S&P 500)

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR continues to fall: the US dollar is to blame. Overview for 17.06.2024

The EURUSD position appears weak on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0702.

The EUR faces serious pressure due to the political imbalance in Europe and a rather mixed outlook. The euro-dollar exchange rate has declined by 0.8% over the last week, marking the maximum weekly fall since April and giving a reason for a detailed forecast for EURUSD on 17 June 2024.

The market is speculating on the risks of a budget crisis in the eurozone. This pertains to the situation in France, where the confrontation between the right and left parties is reaching a new level ahead of snap parliamentary elections, with increasing pressure on President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist administration.

All these factors increase the likelihood of implications for the economy in the heart of the eurozone. This situation appears significant and dubious and is unlikely to be resolved soon.

A fall in the euro rate indirectly benefits the US dollar.

Despite a massive sell-off in the French financial markets last week, the European Central Bank does not plan to initiate an emergency purchase of French bonds.

Technical analysis EURUSD



As the analysis for 17 June 2024 shows, EURUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.0450. On the H4 chart, the market formed the first structure of this wave, with a target at 1.0666. Today, a consolidation range is expected to form above this level. With an upward breakout, a correction towards 1.0790 might follow. Once the correction is complete, a new decline structure in the EURUSD exchange rate could start, aiming for 1.0680. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570. With a downward breakout of the range, a decline wave to 1.0570 is possible. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. The market has completed a decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope, with a rise to its upper boundary being expected.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold is correcting, facing pressure from a strong US dollar

Gold prices continue to correct after reaching an all-time high of 2,450 USD per troy ounce. Pressure mostly comes from the strengthening US dollar, which has received support after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at 5.5%, and comments indicated that economic activity continues to increase steadily, with job gains remaining high and the unemployment rate low.

Although market participants hoped for a signal from the Federal Reserve about an upcoming interest rate reduction amid slowing US inflation, this did not occur. Analysts anticipate one interest rate cut of 0.25% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, gold has experienced steady growth of approximately 12.5% since the beginning of the year. This rise is driven by fundamental factors: the US treasury bond market is gradually losing its share as the main global reserve asset, with world central banks partially selling US treasury bonds and purchasing gold instead.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, gold quotes are experiencing a correction within a descending price channel after reaching a high of 2,450 in May. The price is currently hovering near the 2,320 mark, with a Triangle technical pattern forming on the chart. The direction of the price movement out of this pattern may indicate the near term.



According to the forecast, if the quotes exit the Triangle pattern upwards and secure above 2,340, this will open the potential for growth towards the 2,388 resistance level. If the price of gold declines, dropping below the lower line of this pattern, a fall might continue towards a strong support area between 2,285 and 2,277.

Read more - Gold

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Will the ECB meeting help strengthen the euro?

The US dollar continues to lose ground against the euro on Wednesday. The European Central Bank meeting may bring about some changes.

Today’s European Central Bank meeting on non-monetary policy issues may change the EURUSD rate. In anticipation of the ECB’s monthly and meeting reports, the euro may slightly strengthen against the US dollar.

Wednesday is rich in news with a weak economic effect, and this news typically does not significantly impact the quotes individually. The eurozone and US news may positively affect the EURUSD forecast, but this influence will be short-lived. When the news for 19 June 2024 is released, the EURUSD pair may slightly strengthen before further losing ground.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD 4Н chart analysis for 19 June 2024 shows a corrective wave towards 1.0760. A decline structure is expected to start, aiming for 1.0711. A new consolidation range might practically develop within these levels. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue towards 1.0800. Subsequently, the EURUSD price could decline to 1.0660. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline wave directly towards 1.0660, potentially continuing towards the local target of 1.0570.



This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD pair. The market has received a downward rebound from the Envelope centre. If the market gains a foothold above the 1.0760 level, the corrective wave might continue towards the Envelope’s upper boundary at 1.0800. If the market fails to secure above the 1.0760 level, the wave could expand towards 1.0630, potentially continuing to 1.0570, with another touch of the Envelope’s lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EUR is on standby, awaiting news

The leading currency pair is consolidating. Investors are conserving energy ahead of a new batch of statistics and external information.

The euro against the US dollar is stable around the 1.0738 mark on Thursday. The EURUSD pair has been rising for three consecutive days, but current market conditions have set the stage for a temporary pause.

Yesterday, no significant statistics were published due to the Juneteenth holiday in the US and a quiet day in the eurozone. However, the macroeconomic calendar is set to liven up today. Germany will present data on the Producer Price Index for May, where some improvement in numbers is expected. Subsequently, the US will release reports on the number of building permits issued in May and the number of new housing starts. Both are expected to show a slight increase.

The US will also present fresh weekly data on the number of initial unemployment claims. The figure has likely improved compared to last week’s parameters and is expected to be 235,000 compared to the previous 242,000.

Overall, the currency market looks calm. The excitement about the Federal Reserve interest rates discussion has somewhat subsided, allowing major currencies to stabilise.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range is forming around the 1.0735 level, a crucial development for today’s EURUSD forecast. An upward breakout of the range will open the potential for a further correction towards 1.0800. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave might develop, aiming for 1.0680. With a downward breakout, the trend could continue towards 1.0630. If this level also breaks, this will open the potential for a decline wave towards the local target of 1.0570.



This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD rate. The market has received support at the 1.0724 level and is attempting to secure above the Envelope’s centre. Practically, a further rise to the Envelope’s upper boundary could follow. After the price tests this boundary, a decline wave is expected to start, aiming for the Envelope’s lower boundary.

Read more - EURUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JPY struggles amid widespread decline

The Japanese yen is undergoing a correction after the release of the May core consumer price index. The likelihood of continued weakening remains high.

Japan released the nationwide core consumer price index for May. In the previous period, the index was 2.2%. Analysts had predicted a 2.6% rise, but the actual figure was 2.5%, indicating an improvement, although less than expected.

The positive trend did not save the yen from losing positions against the US dollar. A higher index value typically suggests a positive outlook and strengthens the yen. However, in the current situation, the data did not favour the yen’s exchange rate, which has led to its further weakening.

The US Federal Reserve’s report on monetary policy may “add fuel to the fire” and weaken the yen even more.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the USDJPY H4 chart, the fifth corrective wave continues to develop, with a target at 159.35. The price has reached the local target of 158.80. Today, 21 June 2024, a consolidation range is expected to form around this level. A downward breakout of the range will open the potential for a decline to 158.20 (testing from above), followed by a rise towards 159.35, representing the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a decline wave might start, aiming for 155.50.



This USDJPY rate scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a correction matrix with a pivot point at 155.70. The market has completed a growth structure towards the Envelope’s upper boundary at 158.80. A decline wave is expected to begin, targeting its centre – 158.20, with an onward growth wave structure aiming for 159.35 as the main target.

Read more - USDJPY

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

The fall of the pound continues for the second week

On Monday, the pound keeps losing ground against the US dollar, continuing its decline since 12 June 2024.

British industrialists expect a slight improvement in the UK Industrial Orders Index (CBI). The CBI came out worse than expected in the last reporting period, but now the analysts are waiting for more favourable data, which will not help improve the GBPUSD rate.

The indicator is expected to settle around the -26 level in the current reporting period compared to -33 in the previous one. Index values below zero indicate a decline in the volume of industrial orders and have a negative impact on the GBPUSD rate.

Also on Monday, the CFTC data on the number of net speculative positions in GBP among traders in the New York and Chicago futures markets will be released. Over the past four weeks, the number of positions in GBPUSD has been growing, which may indicate an increase in demand for this asset among speculators.

GBPUSD technical analysis

According to the analysis on 24 June 2024, GBPUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.2600. On the GBPUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 1.2666. This level is crucial in the current decline wave.

If the price falls below the range's boundary, another decline wave could develop towards a local target at 1.2600. After this wave is completed, a corrective GBPUSD growth structure towards 1.2666 (test from below) may begin, followed by another decline wave with a first target at 1.2477.



This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.2666. The market continues to decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope. After reaching 1.2600, a growth wave towards the Envelope's centre at 1.2666 may begin.

After that, a decline to the Envelope's lower boundary at 1.2477 is possible. Only after the price reaches this level may the decline wave be considered complete. A correction to the Envelope's upper boundary may follow.

Read more - GBPUSD

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team