Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Murrey Math Lines 08.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD is consolidating at 5/8. In this case, the pair is expected to continue growing towards the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 4/8. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the support at 3/8.



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The Euro is barely moving. Overview for 08.10.2019

On Tuesday, EURUSD is barely moving; the pair is saving strengths in anticipation of news.

The major currency pair is standing still in comparison with yesterday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

Right now, the USD is looking stable, because the entire investment world is braced for another upcoming round of US-China trade talks. It’s not easy to predict where it may lead to, but investors have great expectations ща this event.

In the evening, there will be a lot of numbers from the USA. For example, the country is going to report on the Producer Price Index for September, which is expected to add 0.1% m/m, the same as in August. The Core PPI may expand by 0.2% m/m after adding 0.3% m/m the month before.

In addition to that, market players will be offered the NFIB Small Business Index report, which may show 102.6 points in September after being 103.1 points in the previous month. If small businesses do reduce their expectations and plan to become less active at the time when the buyer's interest is going down, it’s a bad signal for the American economy.

Later in the evening, several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak. The regulator’s Chairman Jerome Powell is one of them.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 09.10.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6737; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6720 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6815. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6690. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6595.



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The Euro is fighting for yesterday’s losses. Overview for 09.10.2019

In the middle of the week, the major currency pair is recovering after yesterday’s losses; investors are analyzing the Fed’s intentions.

EURUSD is growing on Wednesday afternoon, but investors are very cautious. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0987.

Demand for the USD is not as active as before, because investors’ hopes for successful trade negotiations between the USA and China are fading: there was no new information relating to the trade talks. As a result, market players switched to other assets, thus helping the major currency pair to recover.

While delivering the speech yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told about the regulator’s intentions to expand its portfolio of government-backed securities. It is about Treasury Bills, but investors are sure to take it as some kind of “compact” QE. Powell himself explained several times that this procedure was necessary for recovering the regulator’s balance, not for supporting the financial system. Nothing was said about the program volume, but Powell mentioned that it wouldn’t be too big.

As a result, the Fed’s “printing press” is on again. The cash liquidity will increase a bit (investors would like to know by how much and that might be announced later). In this light, the USD may fundamentally weaken a little.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 10.10.2019 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correctional wave, AUDUSD is forming a new rising impulse. In the future, the impulse may reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.6782 and 0.6809 respectively. After completing the pullback and breaking the low at 0.6671, the price may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.6595 and 0.6543 respectively.



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The Pound is looking for support. Overview for 10.10.2019

On Thursday afternoon, GBPUSD stopped falling but may resume its decline at any moment.

The British Pound is growing a little bit against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2227.

The European Union and the United Kingdom continue debating on the Brexit. The current discussions are about the exact time of Britain’s exiting the alliance: right now, the time may yet be revised based on the existing deal draft. The European Council will meet on October 17th and 18th, so if the parties do have any thoughts on delaying the Brexit, they should be voiced prior to these dates.

The United Kingdom is scheduled to publish a lot of macroeconomic reports today. For example, the August GDP report, which is not expected to increase after adding 0.3% m/m in July. Apart from this, investors will be offered the Industrial Production report, which is also expected to remain the same after adding 0.1% m/m/ the month before. The Manufacturing Production may expand by 0.1% m/m, which is worse than the July reading. The Construction Output may drop by 0.4% m/m after being +0.5% m/m in July.

Slowdown in the British production is obvious and it’s not accidental, but looks more like a tendency. For the Pound, it’s a risk.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 11.10.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming the consolidation range around 1.0985 and breaking it upwards, EURUSD has completed the descending impulse from 1.1031 along with the correction. Possibly, today the pair may form the second impulse to reach 1.0944 and then start another correction towards 1.1088. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.0985.



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The Pound rose thanks to progress in Brexit talks. Overview for 11.10.2019

On Friday morning, GBPUSD remains energetic and is ready to rise thanks to progress in Brexit talks.

The British Pound intends to keep growing against the USD on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2450.

The Pound skyrocketed yesterday after investors found out that the United Kingdom was ready to make significant concessions in the Brexit talks. Pat Leahy, the Irish Times editor, twitted that “there had been very significant movement from the British side on the customs issue in the Johnson-Varadkar talks”.

Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar “held make-or-break Brexit talks”, after which market players started active debates on a possible deal soon. The “hardcore” Brexit is not a good thing for Ireland and here’s the reason why: according to the current calculations, this scenario might result in the hasty growth of unemployment, up to 7% on average. Later, it might get much worse.

Deteriorations on the Irish labor market will be clearly seen right after implementation of the no-deal Brexit scenario and may continue for the next two years, and the Irish party would like to avoid it. That’s why any progress relating to the Brexit deal, including the Irish border, is absolutely positive for the British Pound.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 14.10.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending channel continues. By now, EURUSD has completed Hanging Man reversal pattern close to the channel’s upside border. Later, after reversing, the price may form a new correction and then resume growing to reach 1.1093. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may continue falling towards 1.0888.



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The Fed is starting to print money. Overview for 14.10.2019

EURUSD is trying to rise early in the week; market players are keeping a wary eye on the Fed.

The major currency pair remains “in the black” and intends to continue its growth while investors are very cautious about the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1033.

If one decides to explain in simple terms what is happening in the US monetary policy, saying that the US Federal Reserve is turning its money printing press on and starting to bankroll the market would suffice. However, if digging into the matter, it goes like this: last Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released papers, according to which the US regulator would start buying treasury bonds in the amount of 60 billion USD per month. The process is expected to last at least until the end of the second quarter 2020, this means that the QE, and that’s QE for sure no matter which way you look at it, will cost at least 510 billion USD.

The Fed itself strongly disagrees on the term “QE” here, because it would mean that the regulator caved in to the White House and loosed its monetary policy for the long haul. The liquidity in the amount of 60 billion USD will be directly emitted to the market and might as well weaken the American currency. For the record – US President Donald Trump won’t like it a lot.

Why doing this? At least, to help the American economy handle trade wars, which are now put on hold, but may revive any moment.

The Fed said on several occasions that these money infusions are just technical, but the history shows otherwise. Of course, the USD doesn’t like these circumstances as well.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.