Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 03.09.2019 (EURUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the short-term pullback, EURUSD is forming a new descending impulse. It seems as if the previous low at 1.1027 couldn’t provide enough resistance to bears and now acts as the resistance for bulls. After breaking the previous low, the instrument continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.0942 and 1.0889 respectively.



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The Australian Dollar continues rising. Overview for 04.09.2019

AUDUSD remains “in the black” and may continue recovering.

On Wednesday morning, the Australian Dollar is rising against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6772.

The Aussie remains positive the statistics published in the morning were rather neutral, but it was good given the current situation. The Australian GDP added 0.5% q/q in the second quarter, the same as expected. The country’s economy didn’t regress and that’s a good point.

At the same time, the GDP outlook is quite questionable. If the economy of China, which is Australia’s key trade and economic partner, continues slowing down, Australian numbers will be affected sooner or later.

There are issues with Export. Due to the decline in global demand for energy commodities, Australian coal may not be sold as well as in the past and that’s a serious impact on the budget. It’s bad news, but may be only a theory so far.

This week, Australia will report on the Trade Balance for July, which may provide answers to some of the questions.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 05.09.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming a continuation pattern around 1.0975 and breaking it to the upside, EURUSD has completed the ascending wave at 1.1030; right now, it is trading around this level. Possibly, the pair may consolidate close to these highs; there is Double Top pattern at 1.1037. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to fall and break 1.1021. The first target is at 1.1006.



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The Yen stopped plunging. Overview for 06.09.2019

On Friday, USDJPY stopped its active growth; right now, it is starting to consolidate.

The Japanese Yen is no longer weakening against the USD. As soon as global financial tensions reduced, demand for “safe haven” assets also went down and the yen got under pressure. Right now, market players are starting to adjust their positions and analyze what is happening. The current quote for the instrument is 106.99.

The statistics published in the morning showed that the Average Cash Earnings lost 0.3% y/y in July after adding 0.4% y/y in the previous month and against the expected reading of +0.1% y/y. It’s a bad signal, which means that the state of things in Japanese companies and enterprises are so shaky that they not only stop competing for workers but also reduce expenses on them.

The Household Spending in Japan expanded by 0.8% y/y after adding 2.7% y/y in June and against the expected reading of +0.9% y/y.

This indicator shows how the country’s population spends their money and can be considered as an objective leading indicator of economic activity. So far, it remains positive, but there are signals that the current situation is rather unstable and mixed. It’s not good news for the Yen.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 09.09.2019 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6857; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6815 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7005. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6730. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6605.



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The Aussie stopped rising. Overview for 10.09.2019

On Tuesday afternoon, AUDUSD took a short break after 6 consecutive trading sessions of stable growth.

The Australian Dollar slowed down its growth against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6860.

The statistics published in the morning showed that the NAB Business Confidence went from 4 points in July to 1 point in August. The indicator describes the sentiments of employees of the largest Australian companies except for the agriculture sector. Readings above and below zero imply improvement and deterioration of business sentiment respectively.

So far, the indicator is still above zero, but the decline prevents the Aussie from further growth.

In the morning, China reported on the CPI and PPI. Numbers from this country are very important for the Aussie because it’s Australia’s key trade and economic partner. So, the Chinese Consumer Price Index remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y in August, which is pretty good, although it was expected to drop to 2.6% y/y. The Producer Price Index, in its turn, plummeted by 0.8% y/y in August after losing 0.3% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.9% y/y.

It is apparent that the September report on inflation may show slowdown, which is not very good for the country’s economy in current conditions. Weak inflation may indicate competitive environment slump for manufacturers and weak domestic demand.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 11.09.2019 (GBPUSD, EURJPY)

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2019 and 1.1786 respectively, GBPUSD is trading upwards and has already reached 38.2% fibo at 1.2423. The next upside targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2567 and 1.2710 respectively. The key support is at 1.1958.



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The Yen is surrendering. Overview for 12.09.2019

USDJPY is keeping positive momentum and getting close to its six weeks highs.

The Japanese Yen continues falling against the USD on Thursday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 107.92.

In the morning, Japan published a lot of numbers. The first one, the Producer Price Index, lost 0.9% y/y in August after reducing by 0.6% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.8% y/y. The indicator describes the wholesale market prices and if there is a decline in it, there will be the same in the retail prices later.

The Tertiary Industry Activity added 0.1% m/m in Japan in July, which is quite good, because it was expected to lose 0.3% m/m.

The Core Machinery Orders became weaker as it lost 6.6% m/m in July. The indicator is rather volatile: In June, it added 13.9% m/m, but this month investors expected it to drop by 9.0% m/m. As a rule, this indicator is estimated as investments in the production sector. In case of decline, the amount of money invested in production is decreasing, which is not good for the Japanese economy.

The Yen seldom responds to the statistics, but, of course, the numbers should be closely monitored, because they may help to predict further activities of the Bank of Japan. The current decline of the Yen rate is mostly connected with contraction in demand for “safe haven” assets.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.09.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.0927 and almost forming Double Bottom pattern, EURUSD has completed the ascending impulse towards 1.1085; right now, it is consolidating around 1.1056. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 1.1185; if to the downside – then start another decline to reach 1.1000.



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EURUSD will wait for decisions from the Fed. Overview for 16.09.2019

Early in another September week, EURUSD is quite stable; major news and events are ahead.

The major currency pair is barely moving at the beginning of another September week as investors are totally focused on the oil market. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

Only China published several macroeconomic reports this morning; no new numbers are expected from both the USA and the Euro Area.

This week’s major focus will be on the September meeting of the American regulator, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday and last until Wednesday evening, September 18th. The FOMC is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points. The White House’s pressure is too great for the regulator to continue resisting. Most likely, there will be one more rate cut by the Fed this year, probably in December. The country’s economy is surely in no need of such stimulus right now, but it may happen for political reasons.

After that, the Fed is highly likely to take a long pause and watch the economy both inside and outside the country.

It will be very interesting to check the comments that follow the meeting: if there must be any hints at future fiscal measures, the comments will have them. For the USD, the rate cut will be neutral, just because it is being discussed for several weeks; hence, it’s no news for investors.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.