Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday's US economic data did not push the dollar higher. Retail sales for June showed a 0.2% increase, while industrial production declined by 0.5%. The dollar was also hindered by surveys conducted among 109 economists, the majority of whom considered the July rate hike by the Federal Reserve as the last in the tightening cycle.

Today, the EU will release its inflation data, with a forecast of 5.5% YoY compared to 6.1% YoY in May. Good data may have an impact on European monetary policymakers. However, on the daily chart, the euro is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1237, which, together with yesterday's attempt at growth, keeps the bulls' interest towards aiming for the 1.1320 level. The Marlin oscillator is steadily falling, which supports the notion of a downward movement.



On the four-hour chart, the price is currently between the signal level of 1.1205 and the resistance level of 1.1237. Breaking through the signal level will allow the price to fall towards the target support level of 1.1155. The Marlin oscillator has moved into a downtrend territory, indicating the potential for short-term downward movement. The delay in the euro's fall has led to the MACD indicator line surpassing the target range of 1.1076/96 and heading towards 1.1155. This means that the focus is shifting from the support range to a higher level, from which it may reverse to the upside. Therefore, 1.1155 serves as a reference for the corrective decline.

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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Thursday, July 20 2023



If we look on its 4 hour chart, EUR/USD main currency pairs seems like Buyers still dominates where this things confirmed by EMA 12 & 26 which is still intersecting Golden Cross as well as indicator CCI which manages to break above its three levels and hold on to the level 0 which indicates that there is significant support based on these facts, in the near future Fiber has the potential to rally up to test the 1.1253 level. If this level is successfully broken up, then the 1.1276 level will be the main target to aim for and the 1.1329-1.1376 area level will be the next target to go for. However, all of these strengthening scenarios will cancel itself out if on the way the EUR/USD rally goes up towards the target levels, it is suddenly corrected downwards and breaks below the 1.1134 level because if this level is successfully broken down then all strengthening rally scenarios previously described will become invalid and cancel automatically.

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NZDUSD, H4 | Bounce off support level?



The NZD/USD pair is in a bearish trend, breaking below an ascending support line and suggesting a potential continuation of the downward movement. The first support at 0.6189, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, could act as a price floor. If the price drops further, the second support at 0.6114, aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, may provide strong resistance.

On the other hand, if the bearish momentum reverses, the price could face resistance at 0.6246, followed by a higher obstacle at 0.6305. These resistance levels have the potential to hinder the price's upward progress.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 24, 2023

GBP/USD:
On Friday, the British pound traded in a 43-pip range, slightly decreasing by the end of the day. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward territory, strengthening the pound's potential to test the support level at 1.2666-1.2720.



The MACD line has become significant within the mentioned range. The price will likely fall after breaking below Friday's low at 1.2815. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the price tested the nearest correction level at 1.2903 with the upper shadow on Friday. The price and oscillator convergence is gradually waning.



If today's UK business activity gauge shows that the Manufacturing PMI is slowing down as expected, while the US Manufacturing PMI is getting stronger (forecast of 46.4 versus 46.3 in May), then the pound will likely fall towards the upper band of the target range at 1.2720.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 25, 2023

AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar, unlike other currencies, clearly indicates a potential decline in the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve's rate hike tomorrow. The signs include a price reversal at the approaching signal line of 0.6708 and a false break of the Marlin oscillator's signal line below the zero line.



Currently, the Marlin oscillator is in positive territory. If the price breaks above the target range of 0.6783/98, there is potential for further growth towards the target level of 0.6940. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the signal level of 0.6708, it may aim to test the MACD line around 0.6643 with a perspective of declining to 0.6560.



On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the upward territory, and the price shows an intention to enter the target range of 0.6783/98, which would also mean breaking above the MACD line. The FX market awaits the outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

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NZDUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?



The NZD/USD chart is currently trending bearish, with the price within a bearish Ichimoku cloud and below a major descending trend line, indicating potential further decline. The 1st support at 0.6166, a multi-swing low, and the 2nd at 0.6128, an overlap support and the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, could halt the bearish run. Resistance levels are at 0.6221 and 0.6272, acting as overlap and pullback resistances respectively, potentially sparking selling pressure.

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XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?



XAU/USD exhibits a bullish momentum, potentially continuing towards the first resistance at 1985.73. The first support at 1967.08 is significant as an overlap support. The second support at 1953.30 is an overlap support, positioned at both the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a Fibonacci confluence. Regarding resistance levels, the second resistance at 2006.41 is notable as a pullback resistance. An intermediate resistance at 1979.00 is recognized as a pullback resistance, positioned at both the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.80% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

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XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?



The XAU/USD pair is showing a bearish trend, potentially leading to a price drop from the 1st resistance level towards the 1st support at 1938.31, significant due to its pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement alignment. If the price breaches this level, the 2nd support at 1928.59, an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, is notable. Resistance levels are at 1954.07 (pullback) and 1968.24 (pullback), both likely hindrances for upward price movement.

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EURUSD, H4 | Overall Neutral Momentum?



The EUR/USD chart currently shows a neutral overall momentum, lacking a clear directional trend. The price of the currency pair has the potential to fluctuate between the 1st resistance and the 1st support level. The 1st support level at 1.0959 is considered a pullback support, offering a buying opportunity during market retracements, and it gains significance from its alignment with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1.0917, identified as an overlap support, may also attract buyers' interest and provide further support during price declines. Conversely, the 1st resistance at 1.1040 acts as an overlap resistance, coinciding with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, potentially limiting upward movement and attracting selling pressure. An intermediate resistance level at 1.1003 adds to the potential resistance points in the price movement. Moreover, the observed chart pattern is a symmetrical triangle, indicating consolidation before a possible breakout or breakdown. A break above the upper trendline suggests a bullish breakout, while a break below the lower trendline indicates a bearish breakdown.

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USDCHF, Day | React off Resistance level?



The USD/CHF chart is displaying a strong downward trend, indicating bearish momentum.

With this bearish view, there's a possibility of a negative price reaction near the first resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the first support level.

The significance of the initial support at 0.8558 is due to its role as a support level marked by multiple swing lows. Also, a secondary support at 0.8312 adds to the overall support structure.

Conversely, the primary resistance level at 0.8769 is notable for aligning with a resistance point observed in earlier data.

Furthermore, a secondary resistance at 0.8902 is recognized as a potential pullback point, potentially introducing resistance against upward movement.

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