Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Inflation top of the agenda as Euro slumps


The rampant inflation that has blighted the everyday lives of European citizens for over a year has now reached the high profile dialog of Christine Lagarde.

Ms. Lagarde, who is the President of the European Central Bank, has publicly stated that "inflation is a monster that we need to knock on the head”.

This may appear an obvious remark considering that consumers and businesses across Western Europe have been faced with inflation levels at around 10% to 11% for almost a year now, and in parts of Eastern Europe over 25% which has resulted in discernible levels of hardship for many citizens and businesses.

Perhaps the most concerning part of Ms. Lagarde’s direction on this matter is that she, along with many other central bankers across the Western world who are charged with the responsibility of managing inflation levels in the markets over which they preside, views interest rate increases as a solution.

This is a well-worn method of curtailing consumer spending and putting a stop to consumer borrowing, however it is also a generator of barriers to economic strength in that many members of the public can often become disenfranchised by being unable to afford to buy a house due to mortgage payment increases that are not in line with their earnings, and those who already have a mortgage feel the pinch as they have to find extra money to cover the increasing payments and spend less on other items.

Ms. Lagarde explained to press in Spain this week that the European Central Bank is not seeking to “break the economy” with rate increases as she appealed for banks to reschedule debt repayments for households struggling to cope with soaring borrowing costs on variable-rate mortgages.

That perhaps is one soundbite which attempts to try to soothe the fears of borrowers but ultimately the message remains that interest rates are increasing and have been for over a year now.

The Euro is now at almost parity with the US Dollar, this morning weighing in at 1.06, against a backdrop of US inflation having decreased from double figures last year to around 7% in recent weeks.

Of course, US inflation having decreased has its own disadvantages for US-based multinational businesses as they have to now pay more to supply and operate their European subsidiaries, however overall the domestic US economy appears to be settling down and the depreciation of the currency against everyday life expenses is nowhere near at European or British levels.

Certainly volatility is in the air for the Euro and likely the Pound too, as the British inflation level and monetary policy appears to resemble that of mainland Western Europe.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 07th MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Evening Star Pattern Below $23963

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week and after touching a high of $23963 on 01st March, the prices started to correct downwards against the US dollar, touching a low of $22048 on 03rd March.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see an evening star pattern below the $23963 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 22544 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday low of 23370 in the European trading session today.

The momentum indicator is back under zero in the 4-hour time frame indicating bearish trends.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record low of 1 month.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

We can see the formation of bearish engulfing lines in the 1-hour time frame.

The relative strength index is at 43.75 indicating a weak demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a sell signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 22000 and 21500.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $23963.
• The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold market.
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $22414.
• The short-term range is mildly bearish.

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $23963


The price of bitcoin is now moving in a consolidation channel above the $22000 handle after which fresh declines could be expected, or we can see some market correction upwards if the demand for bitcoin increases in the global markets.

Some of the technical indicators are also giving a neutral tone present in the markets.

We can see the formation of a bearish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average, AMA 50, in the 30-minute time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the resistance of the channel indicating a bearish trend present in the markets.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $21780 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls, and at $21851 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 22376 and Fibonacci support level of 22404 after which the path towards 22000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 0.03% by 5.75$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 15.799 billion. We can see an increase of 1208% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

We can see that the price of Bitcoin has resumed its downtrend, which may extend to $21500 after which we may see some correction and change in the trend present in the markets.

There is a descending channel forming with the current support located at $20785 which is a 50% retracement from a 13-week high/low.

The daily RSI is printing at 43.26 which indicates a weak demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bearish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bearish trendline from $23963 towards the $22141 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $22695 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20% and at $22774 which is a 14-day RSI at 50%

The weekly outlook is projected at $21500 with a consolidation zone of $22000.

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EUR/USD Gains Bearish Momentum While USD/CHF Extends Rally


EUR/USD started a major decline below the 1.0620 level. USD/CHF is rising and might aim more gains above the 0.9450 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.0700 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.0620 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh increase above the 0.9350 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9315 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After struggling to clear the 1.0700 resistance, the Euro started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair traded below the 1.0620 support zone to enter a bearish zone.

The pair even declined below the 1.0600 level above the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.0620 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The decline gained pace below the 1.0580 level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


A low is formed near 1.0531 on FXOpen and the pair is now showing a lot of bearish signs. An immediate resistance is near the 1.0570 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0694 swing high to 1.0531 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0610 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0694 swing high to 1.0531 low.

A clear move above the 1.0610 resistance zone could send the pair further higher. Any more gains might open the doors for a move towards the 1.0650 level. If there is no recovery, the pair might continue to move down below the 1.0530 level.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0520 level. The next major support is near the 1.0500 level. A downside break below the 1.0500 support could start steady decline towards the 1.0450 level.

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Euro hits one-month low against the US Dollar


It could be fair to say that the US Dollar, and the wider economy across the United States is an anomaly and has been for over a year.

Despite the same lockdowns in many major centers as other Western economies, the same supply chain difficulties disabling all sectors of industry to the same extent as that of Western Europe, and a similar approach toward involvement in geopolitical matters between the West and Russia, the American economy is not in anything like the bad condition experienced in other regions.

To compound this oddity further, the US Dollar has retained a very strong position against all other major currencies throughout the entirety of last year.

Yesterday, the US Dollar has shown its strength again, as the Euro has fallen to a one-month low against the greenback, with the rate now being at the low end of the 1.05 range during the early hours of the European trading session.

Some data released on Tuesday has put a dampener on the value of the Euro, one such metric being that retail sales within the Euro-denominated area, a good proxy for consumer demand, rebounded much less than expected in January, challenging other data, including PMI surveys, which pointed to a steady recovery.

Energy prices are continuing to soar across Europe, contributing massively to the overall increases in cost of living, which in some areas of Eastern Europe is compounded by inflation rates at over 25%, meaning that spending is outstripping earnings on a continual basis.

In Western Europe, the 10% average inflation is still a major barrier to economic stability and growth, whilst in the United States, the levels of inflation have been reducing over the past 6 months and are now at around 6%.

Manufacturing and productivity in the United States remained at least partially open during 2020 and 2021 with the states of Florida and Texas not conducting lockdowns. These are both heavily industrialised states and aside from their existing high technology, medical products, agricultural, energy production and scientific research sectors, attracted many other businesses from across the United States which relocated their offices to these states during 2021 and 2022.

This could be a contributor to the strength of the US dollar by comparison to the Euro, as the entire Eurozone limped in and out of lockdowns for almost 2 years and now the piper has to be paid.

Retail sales rose 0.3% on the month, below the 1% rise forecast by economists, and were down 2.3% year on year, demonstrating that this stagnation is continuing, and with more interest rate rises on the horizon, the belt is tight.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 09th MAR, 2023


ETHUSD: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Below $1677

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of $1677 on 02nd Mar, the price started to decline against the US dollar trading below the $1550 handle today in the European trading session.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

The price of ETHUSD is ranging near a new record low of 1 month.

We can clearly see a bearish engulfing pattern below the $1677 handle which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot levels of 1537 and moving in a mildly bearish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1530 and Fibonacci support level of 1536 after which the path towards 1500 will get cleared.

We can see the formation of a black hanging man in the 4-hour time frame indicating a neutral tone of the markets.

The relative strength index is at 40.95 indicating a weak demand for Ether and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The commodity channel index, CCI, is giving an oversold signal, which means that the price is expected to correct upwards in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a sell market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a sell signal at the current market level of $1531.

ETH is now trading below both its 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bearish reversal seen below the $1677 mark.
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bearish.
• ETH continues to remain below the $1550 level.
• The average true range is indicating less market volatility.

Ether: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $1677


ETHUSD continues to weaken and we can see a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets. Now the next visible targets are located at $1500 and $1450.

We can see the formation of the three black crows pattern in the 2-hour time frame indicating bearish trends.

The MACD crosses down its moving average in the 30-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the market.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1552 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1528 in the London trading session today.

The key support levels to watch are $1446 which is a 50% retracement from a 13 week high/low, and $1486 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average stalls.

ETH has decreased by 1.27% with a price change of 19.71$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 7.237 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 0.87% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH was unable to cross the $1700 handle last week and now we are about to touch the $1500 level. If the demand for Ethereum increases we could witness a bounce in the levels next week.

We can see the formation of a bearish ascending channel from $1677 towards the $1522 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1575 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20% and at $1586 which is a 14-day RSI at 50%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1450 with a consolidation zone of $1500.

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Gold Price Recovers While Crude Oil Price Declines Further


Gold price is attempting a recovery wave above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below $75.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a recovery wave above the $1,820 resistance against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,832 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price started a fresh decline below the $80 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $76.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a base above the $1,810 support zone against the US Dollar. The price started a decent increase and was able to clear the $1,820 resistance zone.

The bulls were able to push the price above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,858 swing high to $1,809 low (formed on FXOpen). The price is now trading above the $1,820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

Gold Price Hourly Chart


It is now facing resistance near the $1,835 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,832 on the hourly chart of gold.

The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,858 swing high to $1,809 low. The next key hurdle is near the $1,840 level.

A clear upside break above the $1,840 resistance could send the price towards $1,850. If there is no upside break, the price might correct lower.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,820 level. The next major support is near the $1,810 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,800 support zone.

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Watch FXOpen's March 6 - 10 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• Swiss National Bank reports record losses
• AAPL shares: Goldman Sachs puts Buy rating
• Inflation top of the agenda as Euro slumps
• Powell accelerates the bullish trend on the dollar index

Watch our short and informative video and stay updated with FXOpen.



FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo

GBP/USD Rallies While GBP/JPY Faces Key Resistance


GBP/USD climbed higher above the 1.1950 resistance zone. GBP/JPY could start a decent increase if there is a clear move above the 163.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound is slowly moving higher above 1.2000 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2060 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 161.50 support.
• There is a major trend line forming with resistance near 164.40 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


This past week, the British Pound formed a base above the 1.1800 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a steady increase above the 1.1880 resistance zone.

There was a clear move above the 1.1920 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.2000 resistance. A high is formed near 1.2141 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains.

An immediate support is near the 1.2100. The next major support is near the 1.2060 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1802 swing low to 1.2141 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2060 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below the 1.2060 support, the pair could test the 1.1970 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1802 swing low to 1.2141 high.

Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.1900. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2140 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2180 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2250.

An upside break above 1.2250 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2320. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2380 or even 1.2450.

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AUD/USD: Where Will the Pair Be in 2023 and Beyond?


The Australian dollar/US dollar pair is one of the major pairs traded worldwide. Since 2021, it has been moving in a downtrend. However, the reopening of China, the removal of China’s ban on Australian coal, and the potential weakness of the USD in 2023 allow analysts to make optimistic projections on the AUD/USD exchange rate. In this FXOpen guide, you will find forecasts on the AUD/USD rate and learn the reasons behind them.

AUD/USD: Price History 2021 - the Beginning of 2023

From March 2020 to February 2021, the AUD/USD pair was moving in an uptrend. However, the situation changed in May 2021 when a downtrend came into force as the US dollar was gaining momentum. The pair continues depreciating, and there are a few reasons for this.

The first reason is the problems with exports. It’s also vital to note that the strength of the Australian economy depends on exports. The country is a leader in producing and exporting various commodities, including iron ore, coal, lithium, gold, uranium, and bauxite. China is one of the major importers of Australian goods.

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, China had to close the country, which affected its economic growth and curbed domestic steel production. A slowdown in its economic growth affected Australia’s economic development, too.

Another reason for the weakness of the Australian dollar was the strength of the US dollar. Despite the 2022 crisis, the US dollar was rising in value. Some analysts explain this by saying that the USD is a safe-haven asset that appreciates in periods of market turbulence. Others doubt the USD’s status as a refuge currency but agree that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) monetary policy is the primary driver of the USD rate.

The Fed's hawkish monetary policy encouraged the appreciation of the US dollar– in 2022, the central bank raised the interest rate seven times – from 0.25% to 4.50%. However, it’s vital to highlight that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also raised its interest rate even more often than the Fed. During 2022, there were eight rate hikes, so the rate reached 3.10%. Why was the AUD weaker than the US dollar? Despite the smaller number of hikes, the interest rate in the US is higher than in Australia.

Analysts say that the Australian dollar will appreciate only if the pace of the US dollar’s strengthening calms down. This may happen in the near future as the Fed is expected to soften its monetary policy, raising rates at a slower pace. Still, not all analysts agree with that. The Federal Reserve can’t beat the rising inflation rate. Therefore, it may maintain its aggressive approach, and the AUD/USD pair will continue moving in a downtrend.

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NASDAQ feels the effect of Silicon Valley Bank collapse


It was inevitable that a large, previously highly capitalised bank which is one of the preferred depositories of capital for venture capital-funded technology companies in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco Bay area, would create major waves within the wider financial markets economy if it collapsed.

Well, collapse it has, and the fallout is immense.

Silicon Valley Bank, which was founded 39 years ago at the height of the global technology revolution, has gone under, with losses estimated at over $15 billion, and now the fingers of blame are being pointed as the bank's collapse serves to echo the banking crisis of 2008/2009 after which many observers and government regulators cited lack of prudent governance, carefree risk management and lending to those who cannot afford repayments to have been factors.

So grave was it, that the US and European governments embarked on a whole new set of regulations in order to prevent financial institutions from engaging in gung-ho corporate policy and in favour of protecting the public and business community from being subjected to losses should banks fail.

However, here we are in 2023 and we are witnessing the second largest collapse of a bank in the history of the United States economy.

Once again, factors contributing to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank include poor risk management and a bank run driven by tech industry investors.

The failure of SVB was the largest of any bank since the 2007–2008 financial crisis by assets, and the second largest in U.S. history behind that of Washington Mutual which went bankrupt in 2008.

Many high tech firms which had raised venture capital to fund their growth had deposited the venture capital in large sums into accounts at Silicon Valley Bank, and the bank had experienced such an influx of funds in the first part of this decade that it was unable to lend responsibly so took on government bonds, which were long term in their investment structure, and had done so during a period of low interest rates.

Now the piper has to be paid, and the liabilities were too high.

As a result, shareholder confidence in publicly listed stocks on the tech-friendly NASDAQ exchange have taken a downturn.

At close of business on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite index had declined by over 5% during the course of last week, with losses gaining ground after the announcement of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

This high profile and scandalous collapse of a major financial institution which has many Silicon Valley tech firms as customers has added a new dent to the performance of US tech stocks, which have been volatile for some time now.

Over the course of 2022, US tech stocks were very low compared to the previous year, and older style, traditional companies were doing well, and still are – such as those listed on London’s FTSE 100 index.

Overall, the venture-capital funded tech scene is seen as avantgarde but risky compared to the old money which exists on traditional exchanges.

It is just that now, we are seeing the market treat it as such.

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