Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Market Analysis: Gold Price Eyes Breakout, Crude Oil Price Recovers


Gold price gained traction and climbed above the $2,030 resistance level. Crude oil price is recovering, and it could climb further higher toward the $78 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a decent increase from the $1,975 zone against the US Dollar.
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $2,030 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices rallied above the $71.00 and $73.00 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $73.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,975 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $1,990 level.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,030 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,045, A high is formed near $2,046.99 and the price is now consolidating gains.

There was a minor move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,015 swing low to the $2,046 high. The RSI is still stable above 50 and the price could aim for more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $2,045 level.

The next major resistance is near the $2,050 level. An upside break above the $2,050 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,065. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,080 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50-hour simple moving average or $2,030. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $2,030. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,015 swing low to the $2,046 high.

If there is a downside break below the $2,030 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,008 support.

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EURUSD Pair May Rise Despite Bank Predictions of Bearish Trend


During the middle of 2023, the EURUSD pair witnessed a steady decline that lasted until October, reflecting a prolonged period of challenges for the euro against the US dollar. Since then, there has been a glimmer of hope in the market. Despite the recent correction, the market has hinted at a potential continuation of the uptrend over the past five days.

Over the weekend, the EURUSD pair, which had slumbered at the high of 1.0890, experienced a notable rise to 1.10 by Tuesday midway through the London trading session. As the new week began, the euro maintained its upward trajectory, standing at 1.10 as trading commenced this morning. While some analysts cautiously labelled this movement as a 'rally,' it is evident that there has been a discernible shift in sentiment for the EURUSD pair.

HSBC's Bearish Prediction

Adding an interesting layer to the unfolding narrative, Tier 1 interbank FX dealer HSBC has released its predictions for the most traded currencies in 2024. The bank's outlook for the EURUSD pair is notably bearish, projecting a trading level of around 1.02 by the end of 2024. While such predictions are speculative and subject to change, they introduce an element of anticipation for traders and investors navigating the currency markets.

It's essential to note that HSBC's forecast raises echoes of the latter part of 2022 when the EURUSD pair experienced a significant decline, breaching parity and reaching 0.97 by the end of September, reaching 0.9535 at one point on September 29. Whether a similar scenario will unfold in 2024 remains uncertain, with the consensus around central bank monetary policy playing a pivotal role.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500: Worst Day since September


The S&P 500 fell 70.02 points, or 1.47%, to 4,698.35 yesterday, according to Dow Jones Newswires. This is the largest one-day point decline since Thursday, September 21, 2023.

Of the 500 stocks in the index, only 19 closed in the green. Of these, Google shares, as the company announced plans to reorganize its advertising department, which employs 30 thousand people.

From a fundamental perspective, there were no obvious triggers that carried enough weight to cause the sharp decline. Moreover, the Consumer Confidence indicator was published yesterday, which showed that consumer confidence has increased the most since the beginning of 2021.

From the point of view of behavioral psychology and technical analysis, the sharp decline has reasonable explanations:

→ from the low of late October to the beginning of yesterday's session, the S&P 500 index grew by 16%. This is an impressive rally, fueled by expectations of easing inflation and interest rate cuts in 2024. A significant correction is a logical development of events.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD Analysis: Commodity Currencies Testing Important Marks


The penultimate five-day trading period of the past year turned out to be quite successful for commodity currencies. Thus, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the July extremes of this year, the USD/CAD pair has broken through the support at 1.3400, and the NZD/USD pair has confidently strengthened above 62. At the same time, European currencies failed to move above strategic levels and are slightly adjusted against the dollar.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD currency pair lost more than 200 pips last week and strengthened below the alligator lines on higher time frames. The likelihood of a change in the vector of monetary policy by the American Federal Reserve is contributing to the strengthening of the downward trend in the pair. Yesterday, data on the US consumer confidence index for December was published, showing positive dynamics: 110.7 versus 103.8. This fundamental impulse allowed the pair’s buyers to find support at 1.3310 and rebound to 1.3370, but so far no upward dynamics have been observed.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of US GDP data for the third quarter. Also, at this time, the core Canadian retail sales index for October will be published. In addition to the data already mentioned, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released.

On the daily and weekly USD/CAD charts, the price is below the alligator lines, the AO and AC oscillators are red, which additionally indicates sales. The downward scenario may be cancelled if the price confidently consolidates above 1.3460-1.3500.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Aims Fresh Increase While EUR/GBP Rallies


GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2610 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8700 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is trading in a bullish zone above 1.2600 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2640 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above the 0.8620 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8640 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a downside correction from the 1.2760 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2700 zone against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 1.2611 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2761 swing high to the 1.2611 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2640.

The pair is now trading above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2680. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2761 swing high to the 1.2611 low at 1.2685.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2705 level. If the RSI moves above 60 and the pair climbs above 1.2705, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2760 level or even 1.2790.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2600. If there is a downside break below the 1.2630 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2610 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2550. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2500 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Solana Is the Fourth Largest Cryptocurrency by Capitalisation. But for How Long?


2023 turned out to be a good year for cryptocurrencies, especially given the depressing mood that reigned at the end of 2022.

From the beginning of 2023:

• Bitcoin increased in price by more than 150% – including due to rumours related to the approval of applications for a Bitcoin ETF;
• Ethereum rose by approximately 85%.

But what has been particularly impressive is the progress made by the Solana project. This is a decentralised blockchain platform, which is characterised by high speed and scalability — they are achieved through the use of a unique architecture based on the Proof-of-History (PoH) protocol. In 2023, Solana became the first blockchain platform to reach 50,000 transactions per second. And a number of large investment funds, such as Grayscale and CoinShares, have added SOL to their portfolios.

SOL is a token that is used to pay for transactions and services on the Solana platform. It can also be used for staking to help support the network. The SOL/USD rate in 2023 has increased by more than 1000%!

At the same time, SOL now ranks 4th in terms of capitalisation of cryptocurrencies — after BTC, ETH, and the USDT stablecoin. December was the month when the price of the SOL token exceeded the psychological level of USD 100 for the first time since April 2022 (the historical high reached in the fall of 2021 exceeds the USD 250 level for SOL).

But will the price be able to stay above USD 100?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

2023 In Review: A Look Back At The Highlights Of The Year


The year 2023 commenced after two years of economic uncertainty and heavy inflation across Europe and North America, home to leading financial markets, with major currencies such as the euro and the US dollar, and financial hubs including London, New York, Chicago, Frankfurt, and Toronto.

These continents, where major stock exchanges operate and the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and FTSE 100 indices represent the top stocks of the top listed companies in Britain and the US, witnessed a dynamic interplay of economic recovery, inflation challenges, and policy adjustments.

The European and North American economies had spent 2023 recovering from a sustained period of inflation and cost of living issues (Britain and mainland Europe), and in the US, yet more bank collapses and a close call with state insolvency as the US Government had to raise the debt ceiling to stop it defaulting on its existing commitments, highlighting the country's huge national debt.

Inflation did decline during 2023, but central bank policy on both sides of the Atlantic favoured continued increases in interest rates, despite the US inflation going down from 11% in mid-2022 to around 3.1% now, and the British inflation rate is 3.9% now whereas it was also in double figures during 2022. Now, we move on to looking at specific markets.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Dollar Corrects in Thin Market


The American currency is strengthening slightly after Christmas. Thus, the pound/US dollar currency pair retreated from the recent high just above 1.2700 and the US dollar/yen pair found support at 142.00. The euro/US dollar pair is trying to retest Friday’s high at 1.1040. Both the Australian and Canadian currencies continue to rise against the dollar.

USD/JPY

A block of data from Japan published this morning contributed to a slight strengthening of the USD/JPY pair, as the incoming fundamentals turned out to be quite weak. Thus, the core consumer price index (CPI) from the Bank of Japan decreased to 2.7% against the forecast of 3.00%. The price index for corporate services also fell: 2.3% versus 2.4%. Also in the red zone was the ratio of vacancies to applicants: 1.28 to 1.30. Today at 21:00 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the auction for the placement of 2-year US Treasury notes.

On the daily and weekly USD/JPY chart, the pair is below the alligator lines, the priority is to sell on the breakdown of the lower fractal at 140.90. We can consider cancelling the downward scenario if the price confidently consolidates above 145.00.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Extends Rally While USD/JPY Revisits Support


EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.0985 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 142.85 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro remained in a bullish zone and climbed above the 1.0985 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1020 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 143.40 and 142.85 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 142.25 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase above the 1.0930 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0985 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above the 1.1020 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1040 resistance. A high is formed near 1.1044 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0929 swing low to the 1.1044 high at 1.1020. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1020 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0929 swing low to the 1.1044 high at 1.0985.

If there is a downside break below 1.0985, the pair could drop toward the 1.0930 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0910, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.1040. The next major resistance is near the 1.1065 level. An upside break above 1.1065 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1120.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.