Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

US Economic Conundrum: Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Spending or the Job Market First?


It is a classic economic puzzle akin to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as interest rates reach their highest levels in over two decades, which vital component of the economy will give way first—spending or employment?

When consumers tighten their purse strings, businesses experience a drop in revenue, and this, in turn, can lead to layoffs as profits dwindle. Conversely, when companies reduce their workforce, individuals find themselves with less money to spend. It is a delicate dance, and the intricacies of this relationship remain a subject of much debate among economists.

For now, it appears that spending remains robust, and businesses continue their hiring spree. The key question is why? Some contend that the robust job market is driving consumer spending, while others argue that strong consumer demand enables employers to maintain a solid hiring pace.

Consumer spending plays a pivotal role in the US economic landscape, contributing to approximately 70% of the nation's economic output. Consequently, it acts as a litmus test for the overall health and trajectory of the American economy.

Determining which will weaken first—spending or hiring—entails consideration of various nuances. Factors such as the lingering effects of pandemic-era savings, varying degrees of pent-up demand for specific goods and services, and the ever-evolving economic landscape across different business cycles all come into play.

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US Dollar Falls after Weak Employment Data


The US dollar fell after data showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady again at its December meeting. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month, the data showed. Figures for September were revised down to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's exchange rate against six major currencies, fell 0.8% to 105.29. Investors also paid attention to the decline in business activity: the indicator in the services sector from S&P Global in October adjusted from 50.9 points to 50.6 points, while analysts did not expect changes, and the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — from 53. 6 points to 51.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing the bullish momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the 1.0735 mark for an upward breakout, updating local highs from September 14. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0758, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0798. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0703, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596.

Investors are focusing on the October US labour market report, published on Friday. In turn, export volumes from Germany lost 2.4% in September after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while experts expected -1.1%, and imports fell by 1.7% after -0 .3% with a forecast of 0.5%. Thus, Germany's trade surplus in September decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros, with expectations at 16.3 billion euros.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Turns Green While USD/CAD Eyes Fresh Increase


GBP/USD started a decent increase above the 1.2225 resistance. USD/CAD is recovering and might aim for a move toward the 1.3795 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound climbed above the 1.2225 and 1.2315 resistance levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD declined toward the 1.3635 zone before the bulls took a stand.
• It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3660 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair found support near the 1.2100 zone. The British Pound formed a base and started a recovery wave above 1.2225 against the US Dollar.

The pair was able to clear the 1.2315 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it spiked toward 1.2430. A high is formed near 1.2430 and the pair is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high.

The RSI moved below the 40 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major support at 1.2315. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315.

A downside break below the trend line might send the pair toward the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high at 1.2225. The next major support is 1.2100. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2000 support.

On the upside, the pair might face resistance near 1.2350. The next resistance is near 1.2385. An upside break above the 1.2385 zone could send the pair toward 1.2430. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2500.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Reclaims 1.0700 While USD/CHF Dips


EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0700 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.9010 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0635 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.9030 and 0.9010 support levels.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9010 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0525 level. The Euro cleared the 1.0635 resistance to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0700. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0750 resistance. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high.

Immediate support on the downside is near a major bullish trend line at 1.0685. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high at 1.0635.

A downside break below the 1.0635 support could send the pair toward the 1.0560 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone to 1.0525.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0700. The first major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. An upside break above the 1.0750 level might send the pair toward the 1.0800 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0840 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0920 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July


As the chart shows, the price of WTI oil has dropped below USD 77.50 – the last time prices were this high was in mid-July.

The decline in oil prices was contributed to by:
→ first, easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East and interruptions in the supply of oil produced in the region;
→ secondly, the data from Beijing. While China's crude oil imports rose in volume and value in October, the country's total exports fell 6.4% year on year, more than expected, CNBC reports. This points to a slowdown in demand in a world where central banks in many countries are keeping interest rates high to combat inflation.

Thus, supply forces prevail despite the fact that Russia and Saudi Arabia announced continued restrictions on oil production amid the conflict in the Middle East.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Dollar Corrects ahead of Jerome Powell's Speech


Last week's weak jobs report contributed to a sharp rise in major currencies against the US dollar. Market participants assume that weak labour market data will force the Fed to change the vector of monetary policy. We will find out how officials perceived the recent data in the coming trading sessions. There are a number of speeches scheduled by important US officials this week that could either reinforce current market sentiment or contribute to a reversal.

GBP/USD


The British currency strengthened over 200 points last week and traded above 1.2400 on Monday. However, buyers have not yet managed to develop a full-fledged upward trend, and yesterday the price returned below 1.2300.

In the near future, the price may test support at 1.2200-1.2180. The behaviour of the pair at these marks will give more clues on its further pricing. A sharp rebound could contribute to renewed growth in the direction of 1.2500-1.2400. A breakdown downward may provoke another downward wave to 1.2100-1.2000.

Today at 11:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Tomorrow at 10:30 GMT+3, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Huw Pill, will speak.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950


This happened for the first time since mid-October, when gold was rapidly rising in price on fears related to the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

At the same time, the psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce demonstrated its importance.

Notice the volatility spikes around it — the bulls were active in the attacks, noticeable on the 4-hour chart, but all the progress made on the upward impulses was almost immediately canceled out by the bears.

The graph shows:
→ formation of a reversal pattern SHS (head-and-shoulders). With some subjectivity, we can assume that the “neck” level is around USD 1,970. But it has already been broken after a weak rebound;
→ the price dropped below EMA (100).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year


For the first time since 2008, the rate exceeded the level of 161 yen per euro.

The strength of the euro and the weakness of the yen are contributed to by different policies of central banks.

The European Central Bank's chief economist said on Wednesday that he had not seen enough progress in curbing inflation. This may mean a continuation of the ECB's tight monetary policy and the “expensive euro”. The head of Ireland's central bank said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes should not be ruled out, while the Bundesbank president said the "last mile" to the inflation target could be the hardest.

At the same time, in Japan, interest rates are effectively negative, making the yen fundamentally weak against the euro. The uptrend channel on the EUR/JPY pair (shown in blue) dates back to 2022. The stability of the trend is also evidenced by the upward-directed MA (100) — the rate is stably above it.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

BTC/USD Analysis: New High of the Year


The bitcoin rate exceeded USD 36,500 per coin for the first time in 2023.

This is fueled by pending approval of Bitcoin ETF applications pending before the SEC. According to the latest information, SEC representatives are in contact with the Grayscale fund, one of those who submitted applications. This increased confidence that applications would be approved. Moreover:
→ applications can be approved all together and then several ETFs will start working simultaneously, making it possible that potentially billions of dollars will be directed to the purchase of bitcoins;
→ this can happen before January 10, 2024.

The creation of ETFs will open up new opportunities for a wide range of investors to easily invest in the main cryptocurrency, while reducing the risks associated with opening an account on a crypto exchange, hacked wallets, or sanctions from regulators.

The BTC/USD chart today shows that the price of bitcoin broke through the USD 36,000 level on an expanding candle, indicating the strength of demand.

How far can the bitcoin rate go up?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Corrects Gains and Crude Oil Price Tumbles


Gold price is correcting gains below the $1,980 support. Crude oil prices declined heavily below the $80.00 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to settle above the $2,000 region and moved lower against the US Dollar.
• It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,958 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices dived toward the $75 zone before the bulls appeared.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $76.90 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $2,000 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,980 pivot level.

The price traded below the $1,965 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,945 zone. A low is formed near $1,944.71 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,958.

There was also a spike above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,005 swing high to the $1,945 low. It is now facing resistance near the $1,965 level.

The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,005 swing high to the $1,945 low at $1,980, above which the price could test the $2,005 resistance.

The next major resistance is $2,020. An upside break above the $2,020 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,032. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,958 level. The first major support is near the $1,945 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,945 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,920 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.