Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Crypto winter continues big freeze with values as frosty as weather


The weather across parts of Northern Europe and the United Kingdom this week has suddenly turned, and even areas which are ordinarily not associated with snowfall have been covered in a white blanket for a few days.

Travel disruptions at airports have taken place, and a minus figure has been displayed on temperature gauges since Monday.

Finally the real winter weather is here, however the term 'crypto winter' has been in place for quite some time, despite the unusually warm weather during October and November, during which it was not uncommon to see people wearing summer clothes and sitting outside cafes.

The only real sign of winter in the unusually long and pleasant summer conditions was the use in the financial markets sector of the term 'crypto winter', which does not refer to seasons or weather conditions, but instead the 'frozen' values of cryptocurrencies in which prices contract and remain low for an extended period.

Well, now there is a seasonal winter and a crypto winter at the same time.

Bitcoin values once again took a tumble during the early hours of this morning, and by 7.20am UK time, had reached a low point of $17,125 per Bitcoin against the US Dollar.

Over the two hours which ensued, Bitcoin made some headway, increasing to $17,177 but that is still 0.21% down overall during today compared to yesterday.

Looking over the five day moving average, however, the dip in value appears to have been present for a longer period of time. On December 12, values plunged and did not recover until the middle of the morning on December 13, and a 0.44% reduction in value is displayed when charting Bitcoin's performance over the past five days.

Although we certainly still are well ensconced in the Crypto Winter scenario, things are a little brighter than they were last month however. The sun may have been shining across Europe but Bitcoin values were even lower than they are now.

Bitcoin has actually risen by over 5% in value over the course of the past 30 days, so the snow may have fallen and the winter clothes been suddenly put to use, but is this the beginning of the big thaw for the Crypto Winter?

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

EUR/USD Gains Bullish Momentum While USD/CHF Dips Further


EUR/USD gained pace above the 1.0600 resistance zone. USD/CHF is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below the 0.9240 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0550 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.0565 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh decline below the 0.9350 and 0.9315 support levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9360 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This week, the Euro started a steady increase from the 1.0450 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.0500 level to move into a bullish zone.

The pair even climbed above the 1.0600 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. During the increase, there was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.0565 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


It traded as high as 1.0672 on FXOpen and recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the 1.0650 level. The pair tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0528 swing low to 1.0672 high.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0600 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0528 swing low to 1.0672 high is also near the 1.0600 zone.

The next major support is near the 1.0565 level. A downside break below the 1.0565 support could start another decline.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.0640 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0675 level. A clear move above the 1.0675 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0750. The next major resistance is near the 1.0800 zone.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

GBP makes remarkable gains as UK inflation slows, but it's still 10.7%


It is quite fascinating how perceived good news tends to have a positive effect on the value of a sovereign currency.

The British Pound, which spent most of the tail end of this summer plummeting into the depths of obscurity against the surprisingly strong US dollar, at one point reaching as low as 1.18 which was its lowest point in over 40 years, has been rising dramatically in value.

Today, the Pound is up again, continuing its comeback which began taking place just two weeks ago and is now trading at 1.24 against the US Dollar.

Partly this has come about due to a slight weakening in the value of the US Dollar, which spent over a year holding its strength against all other major currencies despite the US economy suffering similarly high levels of inflation to Europe and the United Kingdom, at one point reaching 10.8% and being heralded as the highest inflation since the early 1970s.

Here's the unusual thing.

At the beginning of December, inflation in the United States began to rapidly decrease, and by two weeks ago stood at 7.7% which is still high, but a massive change for the better compared to the 10% it was at during the early summer of 2022.

Rather than surging even higher, the US Dollar actually decreased in value as US inflation lowered. Why would such a thing happen? Surely lower inflation, especially to that extent, would indicate a rapidly strengthening national economy? Yes, it does, however the need to do business with other nations whose inflation levels remain at over 10% meant that the US firms would have to pay more continually for services, products and wages for their subsidies in other regions as inflation in those regions continues to be high.

This would mean higher costs for US companies, so a conservative view was taken.

By the same bizarre token, the British Pound is on its way up as the US Dollar decreases, despite the British economy floundering and the inflation rate having gone up again today to a lofty 10.8%.

As the new year approaches, anticipation of interest rates reaching 5 to 6% is on the mind of many investors, and if that happens, it will create a huge increase in monthly payments on mortgages and unsecured borrowing for citizens of the United Kingdom, and may well slow consumer spending as priority bills and loan commitments take priority.

This inverse rationale with regard to currency value increases despite high inflation is an interesting dynamic and one to follow.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 15th DEC, 2022


ETHUSD: Three White Soldiers Pattern Above $1222

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1222 on 08th Dec, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar moving into a consolidation channel above the $1250 handle today in the European trading session.

We can see the formation of a bullish doji star pattern in the 1-hour time frame indicating bullish trends.

The commodity channel index indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the 1-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a three white soldiers pattern above the $1222 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1286 and is moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1287 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1288 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 48 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Ether and the continuation of the consolidation phase in the markets.

The resistance of the channel is broken on the daily time frame.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Some of the technical indicators are giving a BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a NEUTRAL signal due to the market consolidation seen below the $1300 handle.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1222 mark
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1250 level
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1222


ETHUSD is now moving into a consolidation/correction channel with the price trading below the $1300 handle in the European trading session today.

The prices of Ethereum are ranging near the support of the channel indicating bullish trends.

The MACD indicator is now giving a bullish divergence signal in the 30-minute time frame.

The price of Ethereum broke the $1300 level and then we can see some decline due to short selling of Ether which caused the dip below the $1300 level.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1314 and an intraday low of 1281 in the Asian trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening in the markets this week.

The daily RSI is printing at 51 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1210 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 30%, and $1244 which is a 38.2% retracement from 4 Week High.

ETH has decreased by 2.50% with a price change of 33.04$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 8.409 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 0.58% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of ETH has now entered into a consolidation/correction zone, and after this we are expecting fresh upside waves crossing the $1300 and $1400 levels.

ETHUSD continues to gain bullish traction from a weekly time frame from a 4-hour time frame with the bottom support located at $1075 touched on 22nd Nov.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1243 at which the price crosses the 18-day moving average.

The resistance zone is located at $1291 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1350 with a consolidation zone of $1300.

Technical Indicators:

The Williams percent range: is at -24.78 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index (14): is at 62.01 indicating a BUY

High/Lows (14): is at 0.3436 indicating a BUY

Bull/Bear power (13): is at 0.6240 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

Gold Price Consolidates Losses, Crude Oil Price Could Correct Gains


Gold price started a fresh decline below the $1,785 support zone. Crude oil price struggling near $78 and might correct gains in the near term.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price faced resistance near $1,825 and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,798 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price gained bullish momentum above the $72.00 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $76.10 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price traded high above the $1,810 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price even cleared the $1,820 level, but the bears were active near the $1,825 zone.

A high was formed near $1,824 and the price started a fresh decline. There was a clear move below the $1,810 and $1,800 support levels. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,798 on the hourly chart of gold.

Gold Price Hourly Chart


The price settled below the $1,785 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as $1,773 on FXOpen and is currently consolidating losses. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,785 level.

The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,824 swing high to $1,773 swing low is also near the $1,785 level. The main resistance is now forming near the $1,800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,824 swing high to $1,773 swing low is also near the $1,800 level, above which it could even test $1,820. A clear upside break above the $1,820 resistance could send the price towards $1,840.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,772 level. The next major support is near the $1,760 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,750 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's December 12 - 16 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• Sudden gold price hike attracts speculative attention
• What the future holds for the Fed
• EUR/USD gains bullish momentum while USD/CHF dips further
• GBP makes remarkable gains as UK inflation slows, but it's still 10.7%

Watch our short and informative video and stay updated with FXOpen.




FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Could Extend Downsides


GBP/USD started a downside correction from the 1.2445 resistance. GBP/JPY declined and remains at a risk of more losses below the 165.25 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound struggled to clear the 1.2445 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.2320 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY started a fresh decline from the 168.80 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 167.20 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.2150 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.2320 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.2400 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair struggled to clear the 1.2445 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.2446 on FXOpen and the pair started a downside correction.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


There was a move below the 1.2350 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.2320 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The pair traded as low as 1.2119 and recently corrected losses. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2446 swing high to 1.2119 low. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2240 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2265 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2446 swing high to 1.2119 low, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2320.

An upside break above 1.2320 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2400. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2445 or even 1.2500.

An immediate support is near the 1.2150. The next major support is near the 1.2120 level. If there is a break below the 1.2120 support, the pair could test the 1.2050 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.2000.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

FTSE 100 begins slow recovery from 1 month low


The FTSE 100 index , which is the index containing the 100 most prestigious companies on the London stock exchange plummeted to a one month low on Friday.

There has been some degree of volatility in that particular index during the course of the last 30 days, but overall it has been quite steady and fans back each day.

On Friday, December 16 however, it’s suddenly plunged to 7306, representing its lowest point by far in over 30 days.

Just three days earlier the FTSC 100 index was standing at a very healthy 7526 so to plunge more than 200 points in three days is quite a downward spiral.

Perhaps some of the reason, for it is actually short term rather than anything to do with an overall lingering knowledge that the UK economy is generally struggling and has been for some time.

In fact, some analysts are noting that this is more to do with strikes in the public sector which are taking place during the course of this week having started on Friday last week, which coincides with the sudden plunge of the FTSE 100 index, and that these public sector strikes which affect the logistics and civil service could impede the operations of large corporations.

This would make sense, because of course, everybody is already accustomed to the difficulty economic circumstances which surround the overall UK economy there for such circumstances, would not be likely to have caused the sudden downturn in share performance.

It is, therefore, perhaps, worth looking out for how the FTSE 100 index performs after the strikes have finished and a possible settlement with workers unions may well be reached.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

Will the EURUSD pair go back below parity?


There has been a lot of volatility in the major currency markets recently, and the surprising strength of the US Dollar is perhaps part of the reason.

Whilst the United States While the United States economy languishes in a similar position to that of Europe, the dollar has somehow managed to maintain headway. It has been very strong throughout the course of the last part of this year.

Maybe that is why there is a degree of volatility between the US Dollar and its Western major peers.

Largely because given the high inflation, and uncertain future of the United States economic base, which has been subject to downturns in the value of the stocks of previously stable big tech giants as well as very high inflation which has now subsided, perhaps it would’ve been easier to guess that the dollar would be subjected to the same kind of low values of the euro and British pound - but that simply has not been the case .

Now that United States inflation is actually decreased and inflation in Europe, and Britain remains very high in double figures that has been a surprising turn of events which has seen the dollar rise again.

Now analysts at Rabobank have predicted that the euro might be in for a difficult time in early 2023 I never even gone to far as to say that it might move below parity with the dollar.

The euro being below parity with the dollar has happened before, of course, but given the strength of the dollar over the last few months, it would be quite surprising if it happened again .

With US inflation now down to around 7.7% it would be easy to guess that the US economy is showing signs of restructuring itself and repairing however, those high cost associated with doing business in Europe and Britain no way heavy on big American corporations because they have to pay the continually increasing prices associated with the European size of Atlantic, which has very high inflation so that is likely to bear some extreme cost to American companies and perhaps cause invested in stocks in touch companies to take a conservative view in case the earnings are less than they might otherwise be.

Either way, a major Tier 1 bank stating that the Euro may go back below parity is definitely something to look carefully at.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 20th DEC 2022


BTCUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $16325

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of $18360 on 14th Dec, the price started to decline against the US dollar coming down below the $16500 handle in the early Asian trading session today.

The price of bitcoin has since bounced back from its lows touching $16800 levels in the European Trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $16325 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 16322 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 16846 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of the bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 and MA20 in the 4-hour time frame.

Both the RSI and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 75 indicating an OVERBOUGHT level for bitcoin, and the possibility of an immediate correction in the price towards the $16500 levels.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 200 hourly exponential moving average.

All of the major technical Indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 17000 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating high market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $16325
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $16822
• The short-term range is mildly bullish

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $16325


We can now see that the price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bullish momentum, and we are expecting moves towards the $17000 levels before any market consolidation this week.

Some of the technical indicators are also giving a neutral tone of the markets.

We are now waiting for the next upwards leg above the $17500 handle which will push the prices towards the $18000 level.

The price of bitcoin is expected to enter into a super bullish zone after crossing the $18000 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $16329 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 16862 and Fibonacci resistance level of 16885 after which the path towards 17500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 0.28% by 47.59$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 21.646 billion. We can see an increase of 72.88% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which is due to heavy buying action seen at lower levels.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin’s price is gaining pace above the $16000 handle and might soon break the $17000 level for more gains above $18000.

The price of Bitcoin has failed to clear the resistance at $18360 and we are now again testing the $18000 level soon.

The start of the festive season with Christmas and New Year holidays might dampen the interest of the global investors, and we will have to wait for the New Year 2023.

The daily RSI is printing at 46 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the possibility of a shift towards the consolidation/correction phase for a short term in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone at $17789 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 13 week low.

The weekly outlook is projected at $18000 with a consolidation zone of $17500.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index, ADX (14): is at 36.24 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 58.98 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 1.246 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 144.44 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.