Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Brent Crude Oil is on the up as G7 price cap deals blow


The price of Brent Crude oil is once again on the rise, after a slow and steady decline during early to mid November bottomed out at $76.28 per barrel on November 26.

Since then, the price has been increasing, and today Brent Crude Oil (WTI) is trading at $81.41 per barrel which is a two week high.

This could partly be down to the price cap for oil purchases from Russia having been set by the European Union at $60 per barrel.

This was set late last week in the form of a limit on the price of Russian seaborne crude and therefore constrain revenues the Kremlin makes from the commodity.

However, the market price of crude oil was at the time around $79 per barrel, meaning that the Russian oil companies refused to sell oil to European Union member states which adhered to this price cap, because it is far below the market value.

As a result, demand increased as the potential supply of crude oil to Europe could be affected by the price cap in which European oil purchasers would be expected to adhere to a policy of paying approximately $20 per barrel less than market value for oil imported from Russian oil giants, an offer which of course has been declined by said oil giants as there is no way they will sell oil to commercial clients for three quarters of its real value.

At the end of last week, Russian energy industry had issued a warning that an oil price cap could wreak havoc on the energy markets and push commodity prices even higher. They weren't wrong.

According to an official document from the European Union, this price limit would be subject to regular review in order to monitor its market ramifications. The document stated that the price should be “at least 5% below the average market price" however the $60 that the cap is currently set at is more than 20% less than the average market value of crude oil.

Given that Russia is an OPEC nation and one of its major national industries is the extraction, refinement and export of raw materials for energy generation, there is no likelihood that Russian energy firms would accept this price for oil products.

The raw materials that the Russian economy relies so heavily on are consumable commodities, traded on global exchanges and with the ability to be used as collateral to back economic asset classes and against national debts. These are liquid gold and therefore will be valued and treated as such.

Volatility in the oil market is here once again.

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UK's recession bites again as Pound dives to 1.22 against US Dollar


After a long period of declining values which blighted the British Pound during the course of the late summer and early autumn period, resulting in it plummeting to a low of 1.18 against the US Dollar at one point, the British sovereign currency managed to pick itself up during November.

The economic chaos that has been clearly visible across Britain reached melting point when the shortest ever prime ministerial post, held for just 44 days by Liz Truss, ended with her catastrophic budget having been completely reversed once she left office.

With an unstable government and confidence in the domestic economy which is now encumbered by double-figure inflation, the Pound had been at its lowest point for many years, until November when it began to steadily rise again.

By the end of last week, the British Pound was at 1.24 against the US Dollar, which is not a bad comeback considering that the British economy continues to flounder, however this week it has been plummeting again.

Yesterday, the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) told CNN that the United Kingdom faces a “lost decade” of low growth if action isn’t taken to address slumping business investment and worker shortages.

“Britain is in stagflation — with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment. Firms see potential growth opportunities but a lack of ‘reasons to believe’ in the face of headwinds are causing them to pause investing in 2023,” CBI director general Tony Danker said in a statement.

Energy prices are once again soaring, and the likelihood that interest rates may reach as high as 5% in the real market by early 2023 are indicators that those who are already feeling the pinch may have yet more to come, thus investor confidence remains low and caution is in place.

An interesting metric is that due to the sustained period of high inflation, wage depreciation has been a metric which has been looked at carefully by analysts and economists.

It may well be that the drop in wages in the United Kingdom in the third quarter of 2022 was lower than the previous two quarters of the year, but it has still been one of the largest since this metric began being measured in 2001.

Lower purchasing power due to decreasing wages combined with potentially higher interest rates indicate a possibility of lower spending and therefore potentially lower sales figures in all areas across the entirety of the United Kingdom's consumer markets.

Bearishness is an inevitable byproduct of such dynamics, hence the Pound now languishing once again with a steep decline to 1.22 during the past two days.

Volatility in the major currency market is certainly back.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 06th DEC 2022


BTCUSD: Inverted Hammer Pattern Above $16009

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 16009 on 28th Nov, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $17000 handle on 06th Dec.

We have seen a continued escalation in the prices of bitcoin due to the increasing global demands and buying at lower levels.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the 15-minute time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see a bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving averages, AMA5, in the 15-minute time frame, and AMA20 in the 30-minute time frame.

We can clearly see an inverted hammer pattern above the $16009 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an Intraday low of 16924 and an intraday high of 17098 in the Asian trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 50 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin, and the shift towards the consolidation channel in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 18000 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $16009
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $17093
• Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $16009


We can now see that the price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bullish momentum and we are expecting moves towards the consolidation phase before any upwards rebound this week.

The RSI indicator is back over 50 indicating a bullish scenario in the daily time frame.

The ichimoku – bullish crossover: tenkan & kijun pattern is seen in the daily time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see the formation of an inverted hammer / white gravestone pattern in the weekly time frame.

The price of bitcoin has crossed the $17000 handle today ranging near to a three-week High.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $16716 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 17300 and Fibonacci resistance level of 17627 after which the path towards 18000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has decreased by 1.85% by 320$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 18.733 billion. We can see a decrease of 12.48% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Bitcoin is expected to enter the super bullish zone above the $17000 handle. There is an ascending channel forming with current support at $16395 on the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

We are now preparing to enter the super bullish zone in bitcoin and the prices are expected to gain 100% from the current market levels of $17000 towards $34000 in the starting of next year.

We can see a continuous progression of a bullish trend line formation from $16009 towards the $17169 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 47 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the possibility of a shift towards the consolidation/correction phase for a short term in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone at $17810 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $18500 with a consolidation zone of $18000.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index, ADX (14): is at 27.55 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 84.15 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 4.84 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 410.57 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

EUR/USD Corrects Lower While USD/JPY Aims Fresh Increase


EUR/USD gained pace and tested the 1.0600 resistance zone. USD/JPY is rising and might rally if it clears the 137.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0600 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0490 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY declined sharply after it traded below the 142.00 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 137.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro found support near the 1.0300 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a steady upward move above the 1.0400 and 1.0450 resistance levels.

There was a steady increase above the 1.0500 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.0550 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.0591 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


There was a move below the 1.0550 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0428 swing low to 1.0591 high.

An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0450 level. The first major support is near the 1.04250 level. The main support sits near the 1.0380 zone or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 1.0428 swing low to 1.0591 high, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0490 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0490 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0520 level. An upside break above 1.0520 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might revisit 1.0580. Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0650.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

S&P500 closes lower for fourth day as recession fears bite


The S&P500 index closed yesterday at its lowest point in four days following a steady decline as investors in American stocks concern themselves with the possibilities of a recession.

The prestigious index which contains some of Wall Street's most heralded blue chip giants lost 1.44% to close at 3,941.26, while the Nasdaq Composite sank 2% to finish at 11,014.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to settle at 33,596.34.

The majority of the losses in this week's retraction in US stock values have been caused by bank stocks as well as shares in some media companies, which is perhaps in line with the concern about exposure to unserviceable debt by individuals and businesses should a recession bite.

Investment banks are taking a cautious stance, and Morgan Stanley this week released news that it plans to make redundancies amounting to approximately 2% of its workforce, and whilst inflation in the United States has actually decreased and is now standing at around 7.7%, it is well over 10 in the UK and in some parts of Europe, where many large American corporations have substantial operations and have to fork out more capital to keep pace with the increasing price of everything from materials to logistical costs and wages.

When considering yesterday's declines, the S&P is now down 3.2% this week and the NASDAQ has decreased in value by 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve is still looking at interest rates and has taken a very conservative approach, but it appears that analysts and investors have not ruled out the possibility of a recession taking place across the United States in 2023, even if it is not likely to be to the same extent as the impending recessions in Europe and the United Kingdom.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 08th DEC, 2022


ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $1218

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1211 on 07th Dec, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar moving into a consolidation channel above the $1200 handle today in the European trading session.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The Williams percent range indicator is back over -50 in the 2-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $1218 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1232 and moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1234 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1235 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 53 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Ether and the continuation of the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the daily time frame.

Both the relative strength index and the average directional index are indicating neutral levels, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1300 to $1400 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below its 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1218 mark
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1200 levels
• The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1218


ETHUSD is now moving into a mild bullish channel with the price trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH is now preparing to enter into a consolidation phase above the $1230 handle, after which fresh upside waves are expected.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1234 and an intraday low of 1223 in the Asian trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening in the markets this week.

The daily RSI is printing at 47 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1191, which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%, and $1215 at which price crosses 18 Day Moving Average.

ETH has increased by 0.09% with a price change of 1.07$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 4.698 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 24.01% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be Normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain under mild bullish pressure and the prices are expected to remain in a bullish traction this week.

After the current wave of consolidation gets over, we are expecting fresh buying pressure above the $1200 handle which will push the price above the $1300 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1199 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1350.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index (14): is at 53.20 indicating a NEUTRAL.

The STOCH (9,6): is at 69.01 indicating a BUY

The MACD (12,26): is at 0.350 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 1.498 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye Steady Increase: Here’s Why


AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb further higher above 0.6800. NZD/USD is also rising and might surge above the 0.6440 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6720 and 0.6740 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6780 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 0.6380 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6360 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 0.6660 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace above the 0.6700 level to move into a positive zone.

There was a clear move above the 0.6720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6850 swing high to 0.6668 low.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart


The pair even climbed above the 0.6740 level and traded as high as 0.6778. It is now consolidating gains near the 0.6800 resistance zone.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6810 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6850 swing high to 0.6668 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6850 level.

A close above the 0.6850 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6920.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6780 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6780 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The next support could be the 0.6740 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6740 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6660 level.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's December 5 - 9 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• Brent Crude Oil is on the up as G7 price cap deals blow
• UK's recession bites again as pound dives to 1.22 against US Dollar
• The Pentagon signs a $9 billion contract
• S&P500 closes lower for fourth day as recession fears bite

Watch our short and informative video and stay updated with FXOpen.




FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

GBP/USD Reaches Key Support, USD/CAD Gains Bullish Momentum


GBP/USD started a downside correction below 1.2250. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3700 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound was able to move above the 1.2200 and 1.2250 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD climbed higher above the 1.3600 and 1.3620 resistance levels.
• It cleared a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3660 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.2100, the British Pound started a steady increase against the US Dollar. GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.2150 and 1.2200 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 1.2250 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even moved above the 1.2300 level and traded as high as 1.2322. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 1.2300 level.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


Recently, there was a move below the 1.2280 and 1.2250 support levels. The pair declined below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2105 swing low to 1.2322 high.

It is now trading below the 1.2240 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2220 area. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2105 swing low to 1.2322 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major support is near the 1.2190 level. If there is a break below 1.2190, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.2120 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2100 support.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2250 level. The next resistance is near the 1.2280 level. The main resistance is near the 1.2325 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.2325 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.2400. The next key resistance could be 1.2500.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

Sudden gold price hike attracts speculative attention


Gold prices over the past few weeks have been rising sharply.

In early November, the price of gold was at its lowest point in over 6 months, languishing at $1,628 per ounce, however the sudden rise in value has culminated in gold prices being at their highest since the summer, arriving at over $1,796 per ounce on today's market.

As it stands, the price of gold is aiming to recapture a five-month high at around $1,800.00 as the risk-on profile is regaining traction.

Volatility in a market which is usually not so volatile due to gold being regarded as a physical store of value and therefore the preserve of conservative investors who wish to keep an investment in the precious metal as a safety net against any central bank policy affecting the currency markets, adverse national economic conditions or corporate decisions affecting stock prices when investing in listed companies.

The very dynamic that is currently taking place in that gold is fluctuating significantly in value has led to some attention from analysts and investors, some of which have called it a 'bull run', and others who are making wild speculations that gold could increase dramatically in value to around $3000 per ounce in 2023, a figure which seems outlandish and stratospheric.

There are also a number of conservative views, some of which are that although gold finished last week's trading at almost $1,800 an ounce, there is a high chance for a move lower as the Federal Reserve can still surprise on the hawkish side.

The Federal Reserve Bank is likely to announce another interest rate rise on Wednesday, with markets looking for a slower tightening pace of 50 base points versus 75 base points, and when looking at precious metals being traded on commodities exchanges rather than on an over the counter basis, things are already looking to slow a bit.

On this basis, gold is trading essentially flat during the course of last week, with February Comex gold futures remaining very level at $1,815 an ounce.

It is all very well taking the opinion that people may invest in gold should a recession set in, in order to safeguard their capital against possible economic woes in the currency and stock markets, but in the case in which interest rates rise and recessions bite, there is a tendency toward maintaining cash to pay for increased costs of living during a time when the means of most are stretched, meaning that many people do not have the extra capital to invest and will concentrate on everyday expenses.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.