Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Weak Dollar Despite Strong U.S. Economic Performance



The U.S. economy grew at 6.4% in the first quarter of the year, and it is in line to exceed the pre-pandemic growth level. The good news goes even further, as the growth in the first quarter exceeds the previous quarter’s growth of 4.3%.

However, the U.S. dollar did not rise on the news. In fact, for the entire month of April, the dollar traded with an offered tone. For instance, with the exception of the last trading day of the month, the EURUSD moved only higher, from 1.17 to over 1.21 in less than thirty days.


Fed Keeps the Accommodative Measures

One day before the GDP release, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) announced that it keeps the monetary policy accommodative despite the remarkable economic performance. As such, the Fed continues to buy $120 billion worth of assets every month, putting pressure on the dollar.

The households’ savings rate at the end of the first quarter was 21%, up from 13% in the last quarter of 2021. The uncertainty generated by the pandemic continues, as households keep stashing funds and postpone consumption.

However, the more people get a vaccine, the faster the U.S. economy will come back to normality. As such, the savings rate is expected to decline in the second quarter of the year, pushing the GDP even higher.


It all comes down to the stimulus checks received by households. As the chart above shows, the stimulus checks played an important role during the pandemic, but yet the U.S. consumer is not spending it entirely, as suggested by the high savings rate.

Moving forward, the trading month starts strongly with the Non-Farm Payrolls release scheduled next Friday. The market expects 975k new jobs to have been created in April and that the Unemployment Rate will decline to 5.7% from the previous 6%. However, the risk is that the data will be much better than expected, as suggested by the steady economic growth seen in the first quarter.

As for the dollar, at one point, it should start reflecting the economic reality. Moreover, if the NFP exceeds expectations, the Fed will have a hard time keeping its current monetary policy stance and will be forced to announce the tapering of its asset purchases sooner than expected.

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BTC and XRP – Retracement seen but further upside expected



BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on a decline from yesterday’s high at $59,000 and has made a 6.69% decrease measured to its lowest point today at $55.084. Now it is sitting slightly higher but is again looking like its struggling to keep up the recovery.



On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Bitcoin was on the rise since the 26th of April when an ascending triangle was made. Yesterday, we saw a breakout to the downside from the triangles support, which could imply that this ascending move ended as the five-wave increase. If this is true then the five-wave move was most likely a leading diagonal from the next impulsive move to the upside as the previous correction of the higher degree ended.

Now we could be seeing the 2nd sub-wave of the next move to the upside which would retrace the price of Bitcoin to around $53,000 area most optimally where the 0.5 Fibonacci level is. This Fib level is standing in the vicinity of the significant horizontal support at $53,300 which might hold the price, but we could see the price going further down to the $51,221 area where the next one is.

After this retracement ends, according to the primary count, we are to see further uptrend continuation and new highs for Bitcoin.

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EUR/USD is Facing Hurdles, USD/JPY Remains Elevated



EUR/USD failed to stay above the 1.2100 zone and corrected lower. USD/JPY is trading in a positive zone above 109.00 and it is now approaching a major breakout.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh decline from well above the 1.2100 pivot level.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2040 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY started a decent increase above the 108.50 and 109.00 resistance levels.
• There is a major breakout pattern forming with resistance near 109.38 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After a spike above the 1.2125 level, the Euro faced a fresh round of selling against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.2100 pivot level.

The pair broke a few key supports near 1.2080 and 1.2050. It even spiked below the 1.2000 level and settled well below the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1999 on FXOpen and the pair is correcting higher.



There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2075 high to 1.1999 low. The first major resistance on the upside is near the 1.2035 level.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2040 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2075 high to 1.1999 low.

The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 1.2035 zone to act as a hurdle. If there is an upside break above the 50 hourly simple moving average and the trend line, the pair could rise further towards the 1.2100 pivot level.

If not, there is a risk of more downsides below 1.2010. The main support is near 1.2000. A close below 1.2000 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.1920 support.

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LTC and EOS – New highs ahead



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since the 26th of April when it was being traded at $214. We have seen an increase of 69.8% measured to its highest point of $364 made yesterday. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is now again started moving to the upside again.



On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has made an interaction with the significant ascending trendline which was the upward channel formed from November last year. As the price found resistance a minor pullback was made but the price is now expected to continue increasing further to the upside and make a breakout above the trendline. This means that a higher high would be expected in the vicinity of the $380 which would be the ending wave from the 3r wave of the higher degree count.

If this is true then the retest of the ascending resistance for support would be the 4th wave of the same degree that is going to look out of support before further upside movement potentially to the $440 area. We could see the price going a bit more to the downside if the lower degree 4th wave hasn’t ended fully but this isn’t as likely considering the bullish momentum seen.

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Gold Price Rallies Above $1,800, Oil Price Prepares For Next Move



Gold price started a fresh increase and it cleared the $1,800 resistance zone. Crude oil price is trading nicely above $64.50 and it is likely setting up for the next move.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price gained pace above the $1,790 and $1,800 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher and tested the $66.65 zone before correcting lower.
• There is a crucial contracting triangle forming with support near $64.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a strong support base above the $1,760 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a fresh increase above the $1,780 and $1,800 resistance levels.

The price even settled above the $1,800 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It spiked above the $1,815 level and a high was formed near $1,818 on FXOpen. The price is now consolidating near the $1,815 level.



An initial support on the downside is near the $1,805 zone. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold.

The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $1,770 low to $1,818 high. If there are more losses, the price could decline towards the $1,800 level. The next key support could be near the $1,795 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $1,770 low to $1,818 high is also near the $1,795 zone. Besides, the 50 hourly simple moving average is near the $1,792 level.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $1,818 and $1,820 levels. A clear break above the $1,820 level may possibly open the doors for a move towards the $1,850 level.

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GBP/USD Breaks Key Resistance, USD/CAD Extends Decline



GBP/USD started a fresh rally above the 1.4000 resistance. USD/CAD declined heavily below 1.2250 and it remains at a risk of more downsides.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.3800 support zone.
• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD declined heavily after it broke the 1.2260 and 1.2250 support levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2200 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound consolidated above the 1.3820 and 1.3850 support levels against the US Dollar. Recently, the US NFP report was released, which posted a disappointing result of 266K.

As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a fresh increase and cleared a couple of important hurdles near the 1.3925 level. There was also a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3925 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.



The pair even climbed above the 1.4000 level and settled nicely above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.4045 on FXOpen and it is now consolidating gains.

An initial support on the downside is near the 1.4000 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3856 low to 1.4045 high. If the pair fails to stay above the 1.4000 level, it could correct lower towards the 1.3950 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3856 low to 1.4045 high is also near 1.3950. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3925 support.

On the upside, the 1.4050 zone is an initial barrier for the bulls. A successful close above the 1.4045 and 1.4050 levels could open the doors for a steady increase towards 1.4120 or even 1.4200.

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Ethereum at Record Highs as the Cryptocurrency Traders Diversify from Bitcoin



The cryptocurrency market appears to have reached a point where investors look beyond Bitcoin. Up until recently, Bitcoin was the only game in town, responsible for the overall movements in other crypto coins.

However, things changed dramatically as Ethereum has recovered faster than Bitcoin from last month’s move lower. Investors may remember that Bitcoin dropped from over $60k to $47k in less than 24h, creating a similar move in most altcoins. However, it recovered but was not able to make a new high. Ethereum did and now trades above $4,000 for the first time in history.



Fears of Inflation Drive the Cryptocurrency Market Higher

Inflation in the United States is expected to rise in the months ahead. As such, commodity prices are close to record highs. Lumber, for example, rose over 500% in the last twelve months, and so are basic food commodities such as corn. Gold recovered from below $1,700 and now trades above $1,830, acting as a classic hedge against inflation.

But some investors diverted their attention also to new hedges against inflation. The digital assets are seen as such hedges, and this is why there is such a strong interest in the market.

Why would Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? Also, how about the interest in Dogecoin?

One explanation may come from the carbon footprint that mining Bitcoin has and the negative environmental effects of mining new coins. Natural gas, coal, and oil are still the main sources of electricity used at mining Bitcoin, and many investors want to move away from such investments. If you want, the process resembles, in a small way, sustainable investing.



It is not to say that the price of Bitcoin will not rise anymore or that it will correct from the current levels. This article only points out the fact that investors are willing to have a look at other digital assets in their wish to hedge against inflation.

Should the CPI later this week come out higher than expected, the cryptocurrency market may be the first one to react to such news. In the meantime, Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin, just like Dogecoin did in the past years.

FXOpen Blog

BTC and XRP – Correction likely to continue



The price of Bitcoin reached $59,544 at its highest point yesterday from its prior higher low of $53,170 on the 5th of May. This rise of 12.24% was stopped as the third unsuccessful attempt to surpass the zone above the $60,000 which is why we have seen a decrease of 10% measured to its lowest spike of $53,530. Currently, the price is being traded at around $55,440 as it managed to snap back quickly up above the significant horizontal level.



Now the price is looking for support as the breakout momentum has been seen strong. The descending move is counted as the second sub-wave of the higher degree count out of which further upside would be expected. However, we need to first see the price to hold above the $55,200 area for the scenario to still be valid. If the price goes below it, that would be an early indication that we are seeing further lows before another upward cycle.

The primary count implies that from the 26th of April we have seen another wave to the upside and it is still unclear where this current descending move belongs, but if it’s the part of the higher degree correction it could end below $53,400.

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EUR/USD Faces Key Hurdle, USD/CHF Starts Fresh Increase



EUR/USD seems to be struggling to clear the 1.2180 and 1.2200 resistance levels. USD/CHF is rising and it broke a major hurdle near the 0.9020 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro is struggling to gain pace above the 1.2165 and 1.2180 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2115 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh increase after forming a base above the 0.8990 level.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9032 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a strong support base above the 1.2000 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh increase and it broke many hurdles near the 1.2050 and 1.2100 levels.

The pair even surged above the 1.2150 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed near 1.2181 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains. It seems like the pair is struggling to gain pace above the 1.2165 and 1.2180 levels.



It already corrected lower below the 1.2150 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2052 swing low to 1.2181 high.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.2120 zone. There is also a key connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2115 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2052 swing low to 1.2181 high. A downside break below the trend line and 1.2100 could increase selling pressure in the near term.

On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.2180 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2200 level, above which the pair could start a strong increase.

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LTC and EOS – Consolidation now expected but further decline still a possibility



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on a decline from yesterday’s high of $391 made a decrease of 21.8% as it fell to $306.35 at its lowest point today. It spiked further down buy managed to snap back quickly and is currently being traded at $313.69.



Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that this downfall was the continuation of the descending move from Monday when the price reached $411 at its highest. This was most likely the end of the higher degree 3rd wave from the impulse wave that started at the start of the year. If so, we are now seeing the 4th wave of the same degree developing to the downside. Measured from its last increase from the 26th of April the price fell down to the 0.5 Fib level and found support there. But this only might be a temporary hold before further downside continuation.

We could have seen the completion of the ABC correction in which case now we are to see the start of the next 5th wave to the upside, but there isn’t still any signs of the buyers entering the market. If we are to see the start of the next impulsive move strong confirmation would be needed.

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