Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Gold Price and Oil Price Turn Attractive On Dips



Gold price traded above the $1,900 resistance zone before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it is trading nicely above the $65.00 pivot level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price gained pace above the $1,850 and $1,880 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,898 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher and it cleared the $67.00 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $66.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price started a steady increase above the $1,850 level against the US Dollar. It broke a few key hurdles near $1,880 to move further into a positive zone.

The price even settled above the $1,880 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a clear break above the $1,900 level and a high was formed near $1,912 on FXOpen. The price is now correcting gains and trading below $1,900.



There was a break below $1,890, but downsides were limited. The price traded as low as $1,888 and the price is now consolidating. It seems like there is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,898 on the hourly chart of gold.

The triangle resistance is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,912 high to $1,888 low. The main resistance is now forming near the $1,900 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,912 high to $1,888 low is also near the $1,900 zone. A clear break above the $1,900 level may possibly open the doors for a move towards the $1,920 level or even $1,935.

On the downside, the price is likely to find bids near $1,888. If there is a downside break below $1,888, there are chances of a move towards the $1,870 level in the near term.

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GBP/USD Remains In Uptrend, USD/CAD Could Extend Losses



GBP/USD is holding gains above the 1.4100 and 1.4120 support levels. USD/CAD is struggling and it could decline further if it breaks the 1.2060 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.4100 resistance level.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.4190 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD declined steadily after it failed to clear the 1.2140 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2070 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound remained well bid above the 1.4080 and 1.4100 support levels against the US Dollar. The last swing low was formed near 1.4100 before the GBP/USD started a fresh increase.

The recent low was formed near 1.4136 on FXOpen and the pair is now rising steadily. It broke the 1.4150 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4219 high to 1.4136 low.



There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.4190 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.4180 level.

It is testing the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4219 high to 1.4136 low. A clear break above the 1.4200 resistance level could open the doors for a larger increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise towards the 1.4220 resistance.

The next major resistance is near 1.4235, above which GBP/USD might test the 1.4300 zone. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.4180 level.

The first major support is near the 1.4165 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4120 support zone.

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Gold Breaks Above $1,900 On Inflation Fears



Gold has long played an important role in financial markets. It is the only form of money that survived for millenniums, and investment managers value it as a hedge against inflation.

Inflation is on everyone´s lips nowadays. In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States has grown at the fastest pace since 1981. Both the core and the headline CPI are poised to rise further in the summer, as the US government and the Fed keep the accommodative measures.

Last week, the Personal Core Expenditure (PCE) in the United States rose by 0.7% on expectations of 0.6% and following 0.4% in the previous month. The upbeat data is important because the PCE measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, without counting for energy and food prices, considered too volatile. Also, the PCE is the Fed´s favored way of measuring inflation, and the rise fuels expectations of higher inflation in the months ahead.



Two Different Recessions

A quick comparison of the two last recessions reveals that the CPI had a different path. For example, in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis, inflation fell below zero. In other words, deflation gripped the world´s developed economies, or at least it threatened to do so.

However, it is not the case during the current recession. Instead of falling, inflation is poised to rise further. The Fed in the United States has anticipated higher inflation already since August last year. During the Jackson Hole symposium in 2020, the Fed changed its mandate from targeting 2% to averaging 2% over a certain period.

Higher inflation typically triggers higher gold prices. Only that the price of gold tumbled since last summer, falling from a record high above $2,000 to below $1,700. At the same time, the US dollar continued to weaken, losing ground against its G10 peers.

But the price of gold recovered from its recent lows and now threatens to break to a new all-time high. If the trend in inflation seen in April is set to continue, the bullish trend in the price of gold is likely to continue as well.

Now that the cryptocurrency market lost more than half of its value, as seen by the price of Bitcoin falling by 50% in a couple of weeks, investors seem to favor gold again as a hedge against inflation. If that is the case, the recent rise in the price of gold is just the start of an attempt at a new all-time high. The higher the CPI rises, the bigger the share investors will allocate to gold.

FXOpen Blog

EUR/USD Eyes More Upsides, USD/CHF Could Extend Losses



EUR/USD is trading in a positive zone above the 1.2200 support. USD/CHF is declining and it could extend losses below the 0.8950 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase and it broke the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.2255 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 0.9020 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.8980 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a strong support base above the 1.2120 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh increase and it traded above the main 1.2200 resistance zone.

The pair even surged above the 1.2220 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed near 1.2254 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains. It traded below the 1.2220 support level.



There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2132 swing low to 1.2254 high. It is now trading nicely above the 1.2200 support zone and the 50 hourly SMA.

There is also a key expanding triangle forming with resistance near 1.2255 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.2240 and 1.2250 levels. A clear upside break above 1.2250 could set the pace for a larger increase.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.2200 zone. The next key support is near the 1.2190 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2132 swing low to 1.2254 high.

A downside break below the 1.2190 support could increase selling pressure in the near term. The next major support could be near the 1.2150 level.

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LTC and EOS – Indecision



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has bee on the rise since the 30th of May again after it came down to $157.3 from $207. It reached today $197 at its highest point and is now making a minor pullback.



We have seen the start of the recovery from the 23rd when it fell all the way down to $127 and even lower on the wick to the downside. This is why the recovery seen from there could be the start of the next impulsive move to the upside that is now going to develop in a five-wave manner. On the other hand, this could be another corrective stage with the price making some kind of an ABC correction after further downtrend continuation.

In the first case, we could see a breakout from the currently formed rising flat triangle on the upside which would validate the possibility of the upward momentum. But if the ascending trendline breaks out to the downside it could be an early indication that the price is headed further down below its lowest levels this year.

EOS/USD

The price of EOS has been moving sideways from the 30th of May when it fell to $5.5 area from its high of $7.52. Since then it has recovered to $6.67 at its highest point today but is now sitting again lower as it encountered resistance.



On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has formed a sideways range from the 30th with slight ascending levels. This could be the start of the next impulsive move as a leading diagonal or it could be the 2nd sub-wave of the next move to the downside which is still unclear. This is why it would be safe to say that a breakout beyond its outline levels could provide an early indication of where the price is headed further.

If the price continues increasing and manages to go above the resistance levels this could meant that the price is headed further up, but if its support gets broken we could see further downtrend continuation.

FXOpen Blog

This forecast represents FXOpen Markets Limited opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Markets Limited products and services or as financial advice. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to trade in all jurisdictions.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red, Upsides Capped



AUD/USD started a major decline after it failed to clear the 0.7765 resistance. NZD/USD also declined and it broke a major support near the 0.7200 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.7740 and 0.7700 support levels against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.7730 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also declined heavily below the 0.7200 and 0.7180 support levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7200 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Recently, the Aussie Dollar made a few attempts to clear the 0.7765 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair failed to gain momentum and it started a major decline below 0.7750.

It broke the 0.7700 support level and settled well below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 0.7675 support level and extended its decline. It traded as low as 0.7644 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating losses.



An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7670 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7755 high to 0.7644 low.

The first major resistance is near the 0.7675 level (the recent breakdown zone). The next major resistance is near the 0.7700 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7755 high to 0.7644 low.

Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 0.7715 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Conversely, the pair could further decline below the 0.7650 support zone.

The next major support is near the 0.7640 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7640 level, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7580 level.

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Could Correct Lower



GBP/USD failed to clear the key 1.4200 resistance zone and corrected lower. EUR/GBP is rising and it might continue to rise towards the 0.8650 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound failed to gain pace above the main 1.4200 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.4175 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase after it found a strong support near the 0.8565 zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8590 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.4080 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair climbed above the 1.4150 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

However, the pair failed to gain pace above the 1.4200 resistance. It traded as high as 1.4199 on FXOpen and it is now correcting gains. There was a break below the 1.4165 support level. The bears pushed the pair below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.4083 swing low to 1.4199 high.

The pair is now testing the 1.4140 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.4083 swing low to 1.4199 high.



A downside break below 1.4140 could set the pace for a fresh decline towards the 1.4100 support. The main support is still near 1.4080, below which the pair could dive towards 1.4000.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.4170 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.4175 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.4200 level.

A successful close above 1.4170 and a follow up move above 1.4200 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4250 resistance.

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Weak US Dollar Ahead of Critical Inflation Data



The US dollar reacted strongly to the June NFP report released last Friday and declined across the board. The US economy added fewer than expected jobs in May, but the unemployment rate declined to 5.8%.

The reaction in the dollar may have come as a result of traders and other market participants preparing for the inflation data later this week. On Thursday, right when the European Central Bank is presenting its June decision, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States is released.



Rising Inflation – Bullish or Bearish for the US Dollar

One month ago, the US dollar declined on the CPI release. The April headline and core inflation data showed rising prices, and the dollar took a dive.

However, dollar bears should keep in mind two things. First, it is not the first time in history when higher inflation may lead to a stronger, not a weaker, dollar. A close look at what happened in the 1970s, a period known as one with higher inflation, will show that the dollar may get stronger on rising prices.

Second, the core inflation difference between Europe and the United States suggests we may see a stronger dollar in the second half of the year. The core inflation difference leads five months, and so far it correlated perfectly with the EUR/USD exchange rate. More precisely, it points to a much lower EUR/USD than the current levels, something that dollar bears may want to consider.

This week, the ECB monetary policy decision will trigger volatility on the euro pairs, but the market participants will also look at the tapering message. Next week it is the Fed’s turn to talk about tapering, and the difference between the two statements will be the driver for the EUR/USD exchange rate.

FXOpen Blog

BTC and XRP – Breakout seen with further downside expected



BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on a decline since yesterday and from its high at $36,742 made a decrease of 11.67% measured to its lowest point today at $32,455. Currently, it is sitting at $32,850 as a minor recovery was made but the picture still looks breaking with more downside expected.



Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price has made a continuation of the descending move from the 3rd of June. A breakout was made from the ascending support on the 5th after which a test of prior support for resistance. As resistance was present the price continued moving further to the downside and breaking out from the horizontal levels. This is most likely the development of the 3rd wave out of the higher degree five-wave impulse that started on the 3rd of June.

If this is true then the price of Bitcoin is now headed to the vicinity of the $30,000 area where the next support level is. Recovery of the 4th wave could be seen but the projection takes back Bitcoin even further to the downside at around $27,500 area for the completion of the impulsive move.

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EUR/USD Eyes Upside Break, USD/JPY Faces Uphill Task



EUR/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2150 pivot level. USD/JPY could extend its decline unless it clears the 109.60 resistance zone in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh increase from the 1.2100 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2185 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY declined below the 109.90 and 109.60 support levels.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 109.75 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Recently, the Euro saw a downside correction from well above the 1.2200 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2150 support level and extended its decline.

However, the bulls were active above the 1.2100 level. A low was formed near 1.2103 on FXOpen and the pair is now rising. There was a break above the 1.2120 and 1.2150 resistance levels.



The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2249 high to 1.2103 low. It is now trading above the 1.2165 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now attempting an upside break above 1.2185 and 1.2190.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2185 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The next key resistance is near the 1.2215 level.

The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2249 high to 1.2103 low is also near the 1.2215 level. A clear upside break above the trend line and then 1.2215 could open the doors for a larger increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise towards the 1.2250 level.

An intermediate support is near the 1.2175 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next major support is near the 1.2150 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.2100 support.

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