Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

LTC and EOS – Correction could have ended but further confirmation is needed



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since Tuesday when it fell down to $144.36. From there we have seen an increase of 21.5% measured to its highest point today at $175. A minor pullback was made but again a rise with the price currently sitting slightly lower than its highest point today.



On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin is still in a descending triangle from the 26th of May. Another interaction with its resistance level could be expected during the day as the 5th wave from the starting five-wave impulse from Tuesday. This could be the start of the higher degree upward move after the three-wave correction ended on the 8th in which case after a retracement we are to see a breakout from the upside.

The picture still looks corrective which is why we could be seeing the 4th wave out of the five-wave correction move from the 26th in which case the price of Litecoin could fall back to a lower low compared to the one on the 8th of June. This is why we are going to see from the interaction with the descending resistance if the price gets rejected and the depth of the expected retracement which scenario would be in play.

If it lands on the 0.5 Fib level or slightly lower and finds support there on the expected retracement that could be an early sign for a potential breakout to the upside.

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Gold Price and Oil Price Eye Additional Gains



Gold price is showing positive signs above the $1,880 resistance zone. Crude oil price is holding a major support, but it is facing resistance near $70.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price gained pace above the $1,875 and $1,880 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,894 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher and it even cleared the $70.00 resistance zone.
• There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near $69.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price remained in a positive zone above the $1,865 level against the US Dollar. The bulls were able to push the price above the $1,880 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,885 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,894 on the hourly chart of gold.



A high is formed near $1,900 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,893 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,870 swing low to $1,900 high.

The first major support is near the $1,890 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next key support is near the $1,885 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,870 swing low to $1,900 high is also near the $1,885 level. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the $1,870 low.

An initial resistance is near the $1,905 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,910 level. A clear break above the $1,910 level may possibly open the doors for a move towards the $1,925 level. The next major resistance sits near $1,935.

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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Fresh Increase



GBP/USD is trading nicely above the main 1.4080 support zone. GBP/JPY is recovering and it could rally if there is a clear break above the 155.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound is trading in a range above the 1.4080 support against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4100 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY is showing a few positive signs above the 154.50 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.00 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few sessions, the British Pound mostly traded in a range below the 1.4200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined recently after it failed to settle above 1.4180.

There was break below the 1.4150 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded below 1.4100, but it remained well bid above the 1.4080 level. A low is formed near 1.4086 on FXOpen and the pair is currently consolidating.



There was a break above the 1.4100 level. The pair recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4184 high to 1.4086 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance on the is near the 1.4135 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4184 high to 1.4086 low. The next key resistance is near the 1.4150 level, above which the pair could rise towards the main 1.4200 resistance.

On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4100 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below the trend line support, the pair could test the 1.4080 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.4000 level.

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Core US Inflation – The Highest Two-Months Increase in Three Decades


The US inflation data for the month of May was released last week. The data came out at the same time as the European Central Bank started its monetary policy meeting last Thursday.

Because the two events were the main events of the trading week, the markets did not move in the prior days. In fact, the ranges on most of the FX pairs were so tight that one may have argued that summer trading conditions are already here.

When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released, it showed that the prices of goods and services in May were increasing much faster than expected. As always, the CPI comes in two versions – the headline report and the core report. The latter is the one that matters for the Fed because it is not considering the food and energy prices – too volatile to be included in the report.

The headline CPI data for the month of May was expected to increase by 0.4% – it came out at 0.6% on a month-over-month basis. Also, the core data was expected at 0.5% – it came out at 0.7%.

With both headline and the core CPI beating expectations by a mile, coupled with the inflation data for the previous months, we see the highest two-month increase in inflation in three decades.



What About the Fed?

The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) has a dual mandate. To create jobs and to maintain price stability.

Naturally, inflation refers to the price stability part of the Fed’s mandate, and this one changed during the pandemic. More precisely, the Fed shifted its inflation mandate last August, from targeting 2% to averaging 2%. Out of the two releases, the Fed focuses on the core CPI.

Yet, the Fed did not mention so far what is period it considers when averaging inflation. The longer the period, the more it will allow inflation to rise.

At the start of the 1970s, as inflation escalated, then US President Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods system, shocking financial markets and the international community. At the end of that decade, the Fed’s Chair, Paul Volcker, introduced bold anti-inflationary measures because inflation exceeded 13% on an annualized basis.

Last week’s data means that the core CPI reached 3.8% in the United States on an annualized basis. Central banks like the Fed argue that this is transitory and that the prices will cool down eventually.

While there is a long way to 13%, no one is expecting the Fed to raise the rates as Volker did back in 1979. Instead, all the Fed should do is to signal the tapering of its asset purchases. That might do the trick to stop the upside pressures on the prices of goods and services, and the Fed has the chance to do so this week, at its Wednesday meeting.

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BTC and XRP – Recovery could end soon


BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 8th of June when it fell to the $31,000 zone again. From there we have seen an increase of 31% measured to its highest point yesterday at $40,750. Now it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory overall.



You can see that the price fell for the third time to the $31,000 zone on the 8th of June on the hourly chart. This was done in a three-wave manner from the May 26th high but also from its June 3rd high. This creates a problem in counting waves as there isn’t still a clear sign that the price bottomed out. However for now we can assume that the price found support again on the 8th after which we have seen an impulsive rise. This could be an indication that we have seen the start of a new wave to the upside which is set to recover the price more significantly.

If this is true then the price should now develop a five-wave pattern which is why a higher high from here could be expected to the vicinity of the horizontal range of $42,000. After that the 2nd wave of the higher degree count should retrace the price before a breakout above the zone.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes Fresh Increase



EUR/USD struggled to clear 1.2200 and recently corrected lower. EUR/JPY is trading in a positive zone, but it must clear 133.70 for more upsides.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro declined below the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels, and tested 1.2100.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2142 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY gained pace after it broke the 132.80 and 133.00 resistance levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 132.90 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels to move into a short-term bearish zone.

The pair even settled well below 1.2150 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 1.2092 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.2120 resistance level and the 50 hourly SMA.



There was also a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.2192 high to 1.2092 low. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near the 1.2140 and 1.2150 levels.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2142 on the hourly chart. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.2192 high to 1.2092 low. A proper break above the trend line resistance could pop the pair higher towards the 1.2200 resistance zone.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh high above the 1.2150 level in the near term. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.2100 level.

If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.2060 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.2020 support region.

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LTC and EOS – Was the correction over?



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been in recovery from the 8th of June when it fell to around $146 at its lowest point. From there the price went on to form a higher low and higher high to $180 area, breaking out from the symmetrical triangle in which it was since the 27th of May. Today we have seen a pullback as a retest of the prior resistance for support, and as support was present we have seen a bounce from there. Currently, the price is being traded at $172.5 area and is still moving in an upward trajectory.



Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Litecoin most likely ended its corrective stage on the 8th of June. This could have been an ABC correction from the 27th of May when the first impulsive move was seen. If so, then from the 8th we have seen the start of another impulse wave to the upside. Another possibility in a positive scenario could be that the price made a five-wave correction count ABCDE to the 12th of June from where the next impulse started. In that case the price has made a three-wave increase with the today seen pullback being its 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse.

Now in both of these positive scenarios, the price would be expected to go higher to the upside in an impulsive manner and make a higher high compared to the one on the 27th of May when the price reached $208.89.

However, there is a negative scenario still in play. If the price ended its three-wave ABC correction on the 8th of June the next structure could end as a three-wave correction to the upside before another downfall. In that case, the price could continue its downward trajectory in the short-term and fall back below the triangle’s resistance level and also the starting point of the prior increase at about $154.3.

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Gold Price Slides Below Key Support, Oil Price Trims Gains



Gold price started a major decline below the $1,850 and $1,820 support levels. Crude oil price is also trimming gains and it traded below $70.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh decline from well above the $1,850 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price climbed higher towards $72.75 before correcting lower.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $71.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price faced an increase in selling pressure near $1,900 against the US Dollar. The price started a major decline and it traded below many important supports near $1,880 and $1,850.

The price even settled below the $1,850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the $1,820 support and $1,800. A low is formed near $1,762 on FXOpen and the price is now correcting losses.



An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,790 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,862 swing high to $1,762 low.

The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold. An intermediate resistance is near the $1,815 level and the 50 hourly SMA.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,862 swing high to $1,762 low is also near the $1,815 level. Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,780. An initial support is near the $1,775 level.

The first major support is near the $1,765 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term.

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GBP/USD Nosedives, USD/CAD Starts Major Increase


GBP/USD started a sharp downward move after it failed to clear 1.4200. USD/CAD is surging and it recently cleared the 1.2440 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2350 and 1.2400 resistance levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2410 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made a couple of attempts to settle above 1.4150 and clear 1.4200 against the US Dollar. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to continue higher, and it started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level.

The pair gained bearish momentum below the key 1.4000 support zone. There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.3840 support and traded as low as 1.3790 on FXOpen.



The pair is now consolidating losses above the 1.3800 level. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3840 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The next hurdle is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. The main hurdle is near the 1.3900 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3800 level. The first major support is near the 1.3780 level.

Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the 1.3720 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3650 level.

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The Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish, Sending the US Dollar Higher


Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) took financial markets by surprise. It delivered a hawkish message, as suggested by the dot plot that showed two possible rate hikes in 2023, rather than just one as the market participants expected.

As a reminder to all traders and investors, the Fed has a dual mandate – to maintain price stability and to create jobs. It delivers its monetary decisions based on interpreting the balance between the two parts of its mandate.

While job creation posed challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed had an easier task fulfilling the inflation-targeting mandate.

Like most central banks in the developed world, the Fed targets inflation close to 2%. Or, at least it used to have this target.

It changed it last August. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last August, the Fed shifted its inflation target from reaching close to 2% to averaging 2%. From that moment on, speculations mounted as to what is the period the Fed will consider for averaging inflation.

Based on its recent decision, it appears that inflation, and not employment, is a concern for the Fed.
US Dollar Ripping Higher on Hawkish Fed

One may say that the Fed took markets by surprise, but the staff’s economic projections left no other choice. The US economic growth forecast was lifted higher for both 2021 and 2023, and so was the inflation forecast.

As such, the Fed raised the interest rate on excess reserves by five basis points in a first attempt to normalize rates. Judging by the market’s reaction, they were taken by surprise as the US dollar gained across the board on the Fed’s message.

The EURUSD pair closed the week well below 1.19, after trading with a bid tone above 1.21 for most of the past two months. Also, the AUDUSD or the GBPUSD lost ground, in a piece of further evidence that the US dollar bears were taken by surprise.

Moving forward, it remains to be seen what will other central banks do. Brazil already reacted, by raising the interest rates, in a classic move from an emerging market’s central bank after the Fed turns hawkish.

The big question is – what will other central banks from the developed world do? The first one to watch is the Bank of England, as the Monetary Policy Committee is due to deliver its decision this upcoming Thursday.

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