Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

BTC and XRP – Bearish scenario expected



BTC/USD

From yesterday’s open the price of Bitcoin has increased by 12.44% coming from its lowest point of $31,030 to $34,891 at its highest but has since then made a downfall. The price fell back to the same levels as on yesterday’s low and is now starting to make another recovery attempt. Currently it is sitting at around $32,221.


Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a recovery from the 22nd of January when it fell to $28,785 at its lowest wick. The decrease to those levels was the completion of the 3rd wave from the corrective structure that started developing after the all-time high.

We could have seen the completion of the correction, but the wave structure is still looking more corrective than impulsive on the recovery that followed. This is why more likely, we are seeing the corrective wave continuation in the form of the second wave X from the WXYXZ complex count.

As you can see the price made a descending triangle from its all-time high and since it made interaction with its resistance level, now we are going to have a validation of the assumed scenario as if the price is in a prolonged correction now the Z wave is shortly going to start developing. That means that now a breakout to the downside would be shortly expected.

If this starts developing the price of Bitcoin could fall back to the $24,000 area where the next significant horizontal support level in line with the downside. This would be a downfall of just over 30% which would be a highly significant one.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has been moving sideways from the 22nd of January when it spiked down to $0.24 area from where it made a recovery to $0.28 level. Since the price has been in this horizontal range we have seen further support and resistance testing with the price currently sitting at $0.26645.


As you can see from the hourly chart, the price has previously made a breakout to the upside from the descending triangle in which it was since the 8th of January but failed to continue moving to the upside. The assumed scenario was the five-wave impulse to the upside but since the price spiked inside the territory of the 1st wave this is starting to get invalidated. Instead, more likely we have seen a three-wave upside corrective move before further downside continuation.

However, the quick spike on the 22nd could have been the completion of the 4th wave although unlikely at this point. In the upcoming period, we are going to see if the invalidation gets confirmed and that is going to be indicated from the breakout direction of the current horizontal range.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyeing Upside Break



EUR/USD is holding the 1.2100 support area, but it is also struggling to clear 1.2200. Similarly, EUR/JPY is facing a strong resistance near 126.15, above which it could start a strong increase.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro is consolidating in a range above the 1.2100 support zone.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2170 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• EUR/JPY is facing a major resistance near the 126.15 and 1.2620 levels.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 126.15 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro climbed above the 1.2150 resistance zone against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair faced a major resistance near the 1.2200 and 1.2210 levels.

There were a couple of attempts to clear 1.2200, but the bulls failed to gain strength. As a result, there was a sharp decline below 1.2150. The pair broke the 1.2120 support, but it found a strong support near 1.2100.


A low was formed near 1.2107 before the pair bounced back to 1.2175. A high is formed near 1.2175 on FXOpen and it is currently correcting lower.

The pair is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2107 swing low to 1.2175 high. The first major support on the downside is near the 1.2150 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The next major support is near the 1.2140 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2107 swing low to 1.2175 high. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.2175 level.

There is also a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2170 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A clear break above the triangle resistance could push the pair towards the main 1.2200 resistance zone.

If EUR/USD clears the 1.2200 resistance zone, there could be a strong increase. In the stated case, the pair could easily rise towards 1.2250 or 1.2265.

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro also followed a similar path after it faced seller near 1.2640 against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke the 126.00 support level, but it remained stable above the 125.70 level.

A low is formed near 125.69 and the pair is currently rising. There was a clear break above the 126.00 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair also climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 126.39 high to 125.69 low.


It is now facing resistance near the 126.12 level. It represents the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 126.39 high to 125.69 low.

There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 126.15 on the hourly chart. A clear break above the triangle resistance and 126.20 could open the doors for more upsides. The next major resistance is near 126.40, above which the bulls might aim a test of the 127.00 level.

Conversely, the pair could drop below the 126.00 level and the 50 hourly SMA. In the stated case, it could test the triangle support at 125.90. Any more losses could open the doors for a drop towards the 125.50 level in the near term.

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LTC and EOS – Correction might have ended but downside potential still present



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since yesterday as it came from $118.1 to $132.15 which is an increase of 11.89%. Now it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.


On the hourly chart, we can see that this recovery came after a decline of around 20.35% from its high on January 25th when it reached $147.8. This was the continuation of the descending move that started on the 7th of January and is part of the corrective structure of a higher degree count. The price found support on the 0.618 Fib extension level and is now looking for support on the 0.5.

If the support is present on those levels we could see the recovery continuing to move to the upside. But if the price doesn’t find support further downside movement could be seen. In either way, since this is the part of the higher degree correction we would expect further downside as there is still more room to go. If the price is to make a five-wave impulse that could be the C wave of the ABC correction we could see Litecoin being traded at around $75 area. However, we could be seeing a different correctional count in which case projecting the length of the first descending impulse we come up with the target of around $91.35.

EOS/USD

From yesterday’s low at $2.465 the price of EOS has increased by 13.61% as it came up to the $2.801 level at its highest point today. The price spiked impulsively to the upside but has since made a minor retracement to the $2.7134 level where it’s currently being traded.


Looking at the hourly chart we can see that the price made a higher low yesterday and has attempted to make a higher high but failed to do so on the current rise. However, considering the impulsiveness seen this might change soon. From its high on the 10th of January made at $3.925 a strong descending move was made which could have been the starting point of the correctional higher degree move.

With the price currently testing the prior high which is the horizontal resistance, it might get rejected causing further downside continuation. In that case, we are to see an immediate retracement which will push the price further down breaking the horizontal support of $2.4237. But if it continues increasing from there it could indicate that the correction ended on the 22nd of January in which case yesterday’s low would be the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave impulse to the upside.

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Gold Price Struggles, Oil Price Consolidates Well above $50



Gold price made an attempt to surpass the $1,860 resistance, but there was a major rejection. Crude oil price seems to be consolidating gains above $51.50 and $51.20.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price is still trading below the main $1,860 and $1,880 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,855 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $53.50 and $54.00 levels.
• There is likely an expanding triangle forming with support near $52.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price settled below the main $1,900 pivot level to move into a bearish zone against the US Dollar. The price even settled below the $1,880 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the downside, the price is finding strong bids above the $1,830 and $1,835 levels. Recently, there was a sharp recovery above the $1,850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the price failed to clear the $1,860 resistance level.


A high was formed near $1,863 on FXOpen before there was a fresh decline. A low is formed near $1,835 and the price is currently consolidating losses.

There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,863 swing high to $1,838 low. It is now facing resistance near the $1,845 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The next major resistance is near the $1,850 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,863 swing high to $1,838 low is at $1,850. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,855 on the hourly chart of gold.

On the downside, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $1,838. The first key support is near the $1,830 level. The next major support is at $1,820, below which the price might test the $1,800 support level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price remained in a strong uptrend well above the $50.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price settled nicely above $52.00 and it even made a few attempts to gain strength above the $54.00 level.

The recent high was formed near $53.47 before the price trimmed most gains. It broke the $53.00 support and tested the $52.00 level.


A low is formed near $51.98 and the price is currently consolidating. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $53.47 high to $51.98 low. The first major resistance is near the $52.55 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The next key resistance is near the $52.75 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $53.47 high to $51.98 low.

Moreover, it seems like there is likely an expanding triangle forming with support near $52.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. If there are more downsides below the triangle support, the price could test the $51.50 support.

The next key support is near the $51.20 level. On the upside, the $53.50 and $54.00 levels are major hurdles. A clear break above $54.00 may possibly lead the price towards the $55.00 level.

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GBP/USD Facing Key Resistance, USD/CAD Remains Supported



GBP/USD gained momentum above the 1.3700 resistance, but it struggled near 1.3745. USD/CAD is holding the 1.2750 support, but it is struggling below 1.2820.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound is holding gains above the 1.3650 and 1.3680 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD struggled to stay above 1.2820 and corrected lower.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2770 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.3620 level, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3700 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

There was also a break above 1.3720 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair seems to be facing a strong resistance near the 1.3745 and 1.3750 levels. The recent high was formed near 1.3751 on FXOpen before the pair corrected lower.


A low is formed near 1.3691 and the pair is currently rising. It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3751 high to 1.3691 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3738 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3751 high to 1.3691 low. The main resistance is still near the 1.3750 zone.

To start a strong increase, the pair must clear the 1.3745 and 1.3750 resistance levels. If the bulls succeed, the pair could rise towards the 1.3850 level.

On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.3700 area. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below 1.3700 and 1.3690, the pair could decline towards the 1.3620 support zone in the near term.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar followed a bullish path above the 1.2800 level against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair even broke the 1.2820 and 1.2850 resistance levels, but it struggled near the 1.2880 level.

There were two attempts by the bulls to clear 1.2880, but there was no upside break. A high was formed near 1.2874 and the pair decline below the 1.2820 support level. A low was formed near 1.2737 and the pair corrected higher.


It broke the 1.2800 resistance level, plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2874 high to 1.2737 swing low. However, the pair faced a strong resistance near the 1.2820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It also failed to clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2874 high to 1.2737 swing low. The pair is currently declining and trading near the 1.2780 level.

On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2770 on the hourly chart. If USD/CAD breaks the trend line support, there is a risk of a larger decline in the coming sessions.

The next major support is near the 1.2700 level. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 1.2820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the 1.2880 level. A clear break above the 1.2820 resistance level may possibly increase the chances of a run above 1.2880 in the near term.

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The USD Shows Signs of Strength Ahead of the NFP Report Next Friday



The trading week started on a strong note for the USD. The greenback gained against the Euro and the CHF, despite the fact that the Euro area manufacturing PMI came out way above the 50 level.

It appears that the weakness in the EURUSD pair, the most important pair as it weighs almost 50% in the dollar index, comes more from a weak Euro rather than from a strong dollar. Nevertheless, if the EURUSD pair keeps the bearish trend, the other dollar markets will eventually follow.


Two Central Banks to Release Their Decisions This Week

Last week we saw the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) announcing its interest rate decision. It left the monetary policy unchanged, and at the press conference Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, failed to guide markets as to what comes next. The focus was on forward guidance and on any hint from the Fed of a possible tapering of the quantitative easing program currently running at $120 billion ($80 billion asset purchasing and $40 billion mortgage-backed securities).

But the Fed chose to avoid the subject and thus, the markets moved forward. As the chart above shows, the Fed is not the one with the most aggressive balance sheet expansion. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lead the pack, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the third place. The implications are that the Fed still has room to go, or that the dollar declined too much as if we compare the balance sheet of the four central banks, the dollar should be higher.

This week it is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of England (BOE)’s turn to announce their policy. The British pound (GBP) has been on a strong recovery since the Brexit deal was announced in late December last year. Also, the Australian dollar (AUD) is one of the best-performing currencies during the health crisis.

As always, the first trading week of the month brings the NFP report on Friday. The focus on this week’s report is to see if the U.S. economy continues to lose jobs. If we see a reversal, fueled by the increased vaccination rate, the market may trade in anticipation of a stronger economic recovery than initially expected.

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BTC and XRP – Corrections might have ended but further confirmation still needed



BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoins has been moving sideways in the last couple of days after it made a spike to the upside to $38,637 at its highest point. This increase of around 31.9% came after the price tested the descending triangles support level and was the impulsive move that made a breakout from the triangles on the upside.


As you can see from the hourly chart after a breakout was made the price fell back and retested the triangle’s resistance level for support, which was a pullback to $32,213. Support was present at those levels which is why we have seen further increase but the price didn’t manage to move back up for a higher high compared to the local one.

Even though the breakout was made this increase could still be part of the same correctional structure that started on the 10th of January after the all-time high was made. If this is true then the price is now headed further down for the formation of the Z wave of the complex correction count.

Another possibility would be that the correction ended on the 27th of January in which case this impulse was to be the first wave from the next starting impulse. As the price is now in a downward trajectory we are going to see which count gets validated. If the price continues moving down and enters the territory of the descending triangle then it would be the first bearish one, but if it finds support and continues increasing, further price appreciation would look more likely.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has spiked to the $0.755 level yesterday coming from $0.3895 at its lowest point on Sunday, which was an increase of 93.84%. But after the increase ended the price was set in a downfall of 54%, coming to $0.3465 at its lowest point today. Since then recovery has been seen with the price moving sharply to the upside and is currently being traded just slightly below the $0.4 level.


On the hourly chart, you can see that the price fell below the 0.618 Fibonacci level but now managed to pull back above it. The previous upside move was the ending of the five-wave impulse that started before the new year which is why we have seen a retracement. If this impulse was the first wave after the larger correction ended, the price of Ripple is now headed further to the upside but considering the amount of the decrease we have seen since yesterday we are yet to see if the bullish interest is still present.

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EUR/USD Remains at Risk, USD/CHF Gains Bullish Momentum



EUR/USD failed to continue higher and declined below 1.2100. USD/CHF is gaining bullish momentum and it is trading nicely above 0.8900.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.2120 and 1.2080 support levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a strong increase and climbed above the 0.8900 resistance zone.
• There is a short-term expanding triangle forming with support near 0.8950 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed on many occasions to clear the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels.

The pair even broke the 1.2080 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It cleared the key 1.2055 support zone and traded as low as 1.2011 on FXOpen.


EUR/USD is currently correcting higher and trading above 1.2025. It is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2086 high to 1.2011 low. On the upside, the first resistance is near the 1.2055 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2086 high to 1.2011 low.

A successful break above the 1.2065 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average is must for a steady recovery in the near term.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline from 1.2055. An initial support is near the 1.2025 level. The next major support is near the 1.2000 zone. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.1950 zone.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a steady increase from the 0.8850 support zone against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair broke many important hurdles near 0.8900 to move into a positive zone.

It even cleared the 0.8950 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded close to the 0.9000 level and traded as high as 0.8994. It is currently correcting gains and trading below the 0.8980 level.


USD/CHF is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.8948 swing low to 0.8994 high. The next major support on the downside is near the 0.8960 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a short-term expanding triangle forming with support near 0.8950 on the hourly chart. As long as USD/CHF is above the triangle support, it could climb back towards the 0.9000 resistance level in the near term. The next key resistance could be near the 0.9040 level.

On the downside, the main support is near the 0.8945 level. If the pair fails to stay above the 0.8955 and 0.8945 support levels, there is a risk of a larger decline.

In the stated case, USD/CHF could decline towards the 0.8920 support. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near the 0.8900 on the same chart, where the bulls are likely to take a strong stand.

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LTC and EOS – Pullback or the begging of a downtrend?



LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been in a decline from today’s open at $159 which was its highest point so far. It made a decrease of 9.67% at its lowest today but is currently being traded slightly high at is sitting at around $149.11.


On the hourly chart, you can see that today’s open the high made after a breakout from the descending triangle in which the price was since the 10th of January. The price fell from its high of $185.8 to the horizontal support level at $122 on three occasions and after the third test, a higher high was made and then finally a breakout to the upside on Tuesday. As the price continued making a higher high it exceeded the $155 horizontal level which was the mid-range of the correctional structure in the descending triangle but failed to go above the midpoint high at $166.7 before making a pullback.

If the prior correction ended with the breakout being the continuation of the uptrend of the higher degree, then the current retracement would be only a local one. In that case from the 27th of January when another retest of the significant horizontal level at the $120 zone was made we have seen the start of the next five-wave impulse with the breakout wave being its 3rd. Now as the price is going to the downside it should find support on the ending point of the assumed 1st wave which is at $146. This was tested today with the price action showing a wick on the hourly chart it appears that support is present at those level.

However if the price continues to move further to the downside it could mean that this increase seen with a breakout to the upside was the continuation of the corrective count.

EOS/USD

From its highest point on Monday at $3.2787, the price of EOS has fallen by 11.75% on the same day and enter a recovery since. It reached $3.15 yesterday which could have been the end of the recovery as it started decreasing again and is currently being traded just above $3.


As you can see from the hourly chart the price made a breakout below its ascending trendline that dates from the 27th of January. This ascending trendline is the 3rd wave from the upward move that starts on the 22nd of January, but it is still unclear whether or not it is an impulse or a corrective count. Judging by the wave personality it looks more corrective at this point which is why I’ve labeled it as an ABC. This is soon going to be validated as if the price continued moving to the downside below the $2.88 zone it could very well mean that we have seen the correctional ABC count.

This forecast represents FXOpen Markets Limited opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Markets Limited products and services or as financial advice.

Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to trade in all jurisdictions.

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