Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Turkish Lira crisis lingers with sustained record low against USD


The Turkish economy is a highly diversified one.

Its industry base is by far the most developed in the Middle East, almost resembling European nations with its highly advanced telecommunications, tourism, vehicle manufacturing, computer science, fintech, clothing and consumer white goods sectors.

It’s an industrious society and has been improving tremendously over the years in its modernity.

The main obstacle faced by Turkish businesses and households in recent times has been directly connected to the country’s clearly diversified but somehow troubled economy.

Over the past two days, the Turkish Lira has plummeted even further to the extent that it is now at an all-time low against the US Dollar and other major currencies.

Today, the Turkish Lira is trading at 18.97 against the US Dollar, a value far lower than any time in history.

Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14 are adding to uncertainty, although they are still some two months away. Overall, there is a concern over the possible continuation of current President Tayyip Erdogan's controversial policies which have led to a rapidly depreciating currency and an eye-watering 70% inflation figure, or if monetary policy could perhaps revert to orthodoxy as promised by the opposition should the opposition become elected.

Added to the long-existing fiscal malaise in Turkey, global economists are now looking at the economic impact of the disastrous earthquakes that hit Turkey last month.

The depreciation to new record lows has occurred despite the recent deposit of $5 billion into the Turkish central bank by the Saudi Fund for Development, which was cited at the time to be "a demonstration of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to supporting Turkey’s efforts to strengthen its economy’.

Rather astonishingly, The Turkish Lira has depreciated over the past five years against the British Pound by a staggering 300%, demonstrating that its instability has dented the Turkish economy, but has encouraged British tourists to visit the country even more than they already do - and Turkey is one of the most popular vacation destinations for British tourists.

Also, on the subject of tourism, Turkey has welcomed tens of thousands of tourists from Russia over the past year, as its neutrality has been a boon for business.

Whilst it is good that the tourist industry is booming, the depreciation of revenues from tourist business remains a hard metric to swallow in that 70% inflation has done a lot to wipe out a large proportion of revenue.

Turkey's workforce continues to be industrious and is not showing signs of giving up, so it is an economic region to watch closely.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 14th MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $19552

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum last week and after touching a low of $19552 on 10th March, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar, touching a high of $24800 today in the European trading session.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $19552 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 24800 in the European trading session, and an intraday low of 24005 in the Asian trading session today.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The MACD indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the weekly time frame.

The relative strength index is at 68.46 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term we are expecting targets of 24500 and 25000.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $19552.
• The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold market.
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $24298.
• The short-term range is strongly BULLISH.

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $19552


The price of bitcoin is now moving in a strongly bullish momentum above the $24000 handle. After some market consolidation, we can see fresh upsides in the ranges of $24500 to $25500.

The MACD indicator is back over zero in the weekly time frame indicating a bullish trend.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA 50 in the weekly time frame.

The MACD crosses up its moving average in the daily time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $22460 which is a 14 day RSI at 50%, and at $23557 at which the price crosses the 9 day moving average stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 24381 and Fibonacci resistance level of 24426 after which the path towards 25000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 11.21% by 2462.33$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 46.508 billion. We can see an increase of 21.06% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which is due to the buying seen at lower levels.

The Week Ahead

We have seen a Bullish correction in the prices of bitcoin and the resumption of a bullish trend which is expected to continue towards the $25000 levels.

With an increase in the global investor confidence, we can see an increase in the buying pressure and the trading volumes of bitcoin during the last 24hrs.

We can see the formation of a bullish doji star pattern in the 4-hour time frame.

The daily RSI is printing at 62.03 which indicates a strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $19552 towards the $24780 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $25238 which is a 13-week high and $25814 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $25500 with a consolidation zone of $25000.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Aim More Upsides


EUR/USD is eyeing a steady increase above the 1.0750 resistance. EUR/JPY is rising and might rally further if it clears the 144.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0700 support zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY started a steady increase after it found support near the 141.40.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 143.65 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


The Euro remained well bid above the 1.0550 zone and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0620 resistance.

There was a clear move above the 1.0700 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.0720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as high as 1.0759 on FXOpen and is currently showing positive signs.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0760 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0780 level. The main resistance is near 1.0800.

A clear move above the 1.0800 resistance might send the price towards 1.0880. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.0950 resistance zone in the near term.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0740 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0678 swing low to 1.0759 high.

The next major support sits near the 1.0720 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0678 swing low to 1.0759 high, below which the pair could even test the 1.0680 support zone.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0680 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0620.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 16th MAR, 2023


ETHUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $1369

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of $1369 on 10th Mar, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar touching a high of $1775 on 14th Mar.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

The MACD indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the weekly time frame.

We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $1369 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1660 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1705 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1761 after which the path towards 1800 will get cleared.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame.

The relative strength index is at 55.18 indicating a strong demand for Ether and a shift towards the buying phase in the markets.

The STOCHRSI is giving an overbought signal, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a buy market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a buy signal at the current market level of $1650.

ETH is now trading above both its 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1369 mark.
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish.
• ETH continues to remain above the $1600 level.
• The average true range is indicating high market volatility.

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1369


ETHUSD continues to build upwards momentum and we are now looking to cross the $1700 handle after which the next visible targets are located at the $1800 level.

The parabolic SAR indicator is giving a bullish reversal signal in the weekly time frame.

The MACD indicator is back over zero in the weekly time frame indicating a bullish scenario present in the markets.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in the 4-hour time frame.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1664 and an intraday low of 1634 in the Asian trading session today.

The key support levels to watch are $1559 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls, and at $1587 which is a 14-day RSI at 50%.

ETH has decreased by 2.21% with a price change of 37.60$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 12.639 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 18.80% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs. which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH was successful in crossing the $1700 handle and touched a high of $1775 after which we can see some downwards correction. After the price stabilizes, we are looking for fresh upsides in the range of $1700 to $1800 levels.

We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1369 towards the $1687 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether neutral under present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1710 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point and at $1781 which is a 1-month high.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1850 with a consolidation zone of $1800.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eyes Sustained Move Higher


AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.6680 resistance zone. NZD/USD is rising and might aim a move above the 0.6250 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6650 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6680 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6200 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6180 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6590 and started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 0.6620 resistance.

The pair even moved above the 0.6650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a clear move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6711 swing high to 0.6589 low.

It is now trading above the 0.6700 level, plus above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6711 swing high to 0.6589 low.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6710 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.6740 level. A close above the 0.6740 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6800.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6685 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6680 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

The next support could be the 0.6650 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. If there is a downside break below the 0.6650 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6600 level.

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Watch FXOpen's March 13 -17 Weekly Market Wrap Video

*In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• There will be more bank failures
• Inflation data was not surprising. What will happen next?
• Turkish Lira crisis lingers with sustained record low against USD
• Oil updates the minimums of the year

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.




FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo

GBP/USD Regains Strength While EUR/GBP Faces Many Hurdles


GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is struggling and facing resistance near the 0.8780 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 barrier against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP found support near 0.8715 and is currently recovering higher.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8780 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound steady increase after it settled above the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 1.2080 resistance zone.

During the increase, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance zone and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


A high is formed near 1.2205 and the pair is now consolidating gains. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2160 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to 1.2205 high.

The next major support is near the 1.2120 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2027 swing low to 1.2205 high.

Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2050 support zone. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.2200 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. A clear move above the 1.2220 level could spark a decent increase.

The next major resistance sits near the 1.2320 level. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 1.2400 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

Swiss tsunami rips through global markets: FTSE 100 wipeout noticeable


Last week’s revelations that Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland which is also a global market-maker at Tier 1 interbank level, has got into financial dire straits has had more than an effect on the local banking sector.

As is to be expected, the demise of such as key financial institution has had a major impact on many other markets internationally, one of which is the FTSE 100 index in London.

By Thursday last week, just days after the possibility of a total demise of Credit Suisse had become a real concern, £76 billion was wiped off the value of the index which contains London’s top 100 stock in blue-chip companies.

Over the past five days, the FTSE 100 index has lost 5.8% in value, and is now at its lowest point in over a month, down some 9.8% over the past 30 days.

This morning, as the markets open in London for the first time this week, it was clear that the collapse of Credit Suisse has taken its toll across a whole range of asset classes and company stocks.

One of the reasons for a further tumble in value this morning is that a possible deal between UBS, another Swiss banking giant, and Credit Suisse has not been successful, meaning that even for $1, Credit Suisse was unsaleable.

Bank stocks across the world have depreciated due to the collapse of yet another Tier 1 bank, which has gone the same way as many banks over the past 15 years despite all of the regulatory overhauls and possible lessons learned from the 2008/2009 financial crisis in which a whole host of large commercial banks in Europe and North America collapsed, with some disappearing forever after hundreds of years in business, and some being nationalised at the expense of the taxpayer.

Confidence, therefore is low and added to that are fall-out factors such as the total write-off of US$17 billion worth of Credit Suisse bonds as part of the proposed UBS deal sparked concern about similar debt and sent banking shares down further.

Lloyds Banking Group PLC, HSBC, Standard Chartered and NatWest shares dropped in value by 3.3%. 2.8%, 7.2% and 3.3% respectively and the FTSE 100 is now languishing at 7.335.

It certainly appears that the 8,000 points that analysts were looking at a few weeks ago is now an unfulfilled and distant memory.

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British Pound reaches one-month high against US Dollar despite banking crisis


There has been so much focus on the shock waves that have been sent through the global markets this week as a result of what has now become viewed as a ‘banking crisis’ that only a downward direction in value for stocks and currencies has been considered.

Credit Suisse, the second largest Swiss bank, and one of the world’s largest Tier 1 interbank Forex dealers has collapsed after a few years of serious financial problems and ill-judged decisions such as the 2021 revelation that the bank had helped Bill Hwang, a trader whose activities got him banned in Hong Kong, move his activities to New York and rebrand his high risk hedge fund as Archegos before beginning down the same path that got him banned in New York, costing Credit Suisse $5.5 billion.

There have been other such disasters too, and some loss-making years over the course of the past decade but it is clear that now we are witnessing the end of Credit Suisse in its current form, and even UBS pulled out of a deal to buy it for $1.

The havoc that this has wreaked, including a lack of trust in banks once again – memories are not so short as to forget the credit crunch and banking collapses of the late 2000s, where many banks were either bankrupt after hundreds of years in business, or bailed out by the taxpayers and nationalised – is now noticeable on European stock exchanges as bank stocks have dived, and in currency prices.

However, it is important to note that it is not just the European side of the Atlantic that has been subjected to high value, high profile banking collapses over the past week.

Silicon Valley Bank in the United States collapsed last week, causing a ripple effect which meant that regional banks, of which there are a lot in the United States, lost a lot of value. One particular bank, First Republic, had lost 61% of its stock value by March 13.

Therefore, if malaise is on both sides of the pond, what can traders and investors do, other than pick up the pieces and try to continue their business.

As a result, the British market is resuming its pace, with the British Pound this morning trading at the high 1.22 range against the US Dollar, representing the highest point in over a month.

This is an interesting situation given that the FTSE 100 index lost over £76 billion in value due to the Credit Suisse debacle causing fear among investors and impacting bank stocks, many of which are listed on the London Stock Exchange and included in the FTSE 100 index.

It appears that the overall sentiment is to pick up the pieces and carry on, with an understanding that the banking trepidation is no better on the North American side of the Altantic, and as a result, it’s a good day for the British Pound.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 21st MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Morning Star Pattern Above $23935

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $23935 on 15th March, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar, touching a high of $28439 on 20th Mar.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a morning star pattern above the $23935 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 28180 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday low of 27378 in the European trading session today.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 year.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The RSI indicator is back over 50 in the 2-hourly time frame indicating bullish trends.

The relative strength index is at 63.77 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 28000 and 28500.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $23935.
• The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold market.
• The price is now trading above its pivot level of $27744
• The short-term range is strongly bullish.

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $23935


The price of Bitcoin is now moving in a strongly bullish momentum above the $27000 handle. After some retraction we can see fresh upsides in the ranges of $28000 to $28500.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA 100 in the 2-hourly time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the support of the triangle in the 1-hour time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

We have also detected the formation of a three white soldiers pattern in the 30-minute time frame indicating a bullish outlook.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $24152 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average, and at $25825 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 70%.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 27861 and Fibonacci resistance level of 28072 after which the path towards 28500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 0.88% by 246.91$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 38.608 billion. We can see a decrease of 18.76% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

We can see that bitcoin continues its bullish momentum and the prices continue to remain above the $27000 handle. We are now looking for fresh upsides in the range of $28000 and $29000.

The demand for bitcoin continues and we can say that now crypto winter has ended with the resumption of the long-term bullish trend in the BTCUSD.

The daily RSI is printing at 70.68 which indicates a strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $23935 towards the $28667 Levels.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $28496 which is a 1-month high and at $28796 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $29000 with a consolidation zone of $28500.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.