Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EUR/USD Gains Bullish Momentum While USD/JPY Recovers Steadily


EUR/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.0700 resistance. USD/JPY is also rising and might rally further above the 132.60 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0700 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 131.80 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 131.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro found support near the 1.0530 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair formed a base and recently started a steady increase.

There was a clear move above the 1.0620 and 1.0650 resistance levels. The pair even climbed above the 1.0700 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0780 zone and traded as high as 1.0788 on FXOpen.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


It is now consolidating gains below the 1.0780 level. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0755 level. It is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0703 swing low to 1.0788 high.

The first major support is near the 1.0740 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0740 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0703 swing low to 1.0788 high. The main support sits near the 1.0725 zone, below which the pair could start a major decline. In the stated case, the pair might dive towards the 1.0650 support zone.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0780 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0800 level. An upside break above 1.0800 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might visit 1.0880. Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0950.

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To hike or not to hike? That is the Fed’s question


Today, futures contracts which are related to North American stocks have taken a bit of a downturn in projected value as today is another day in which the United States Federal Reserve Bank – known as The Fed – is set to announce its position on interest rate adjustments.

In advance of the opening session in New York today, futures contracts which related to stocks listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 29 points which equates to a 0.1% drop, S&P 500 futures were down 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.2%.

The Federal Reserve Bank has been holding a policy meeting which has taken place over the past two days, with the final day being today and investors and traders are awaiting the outcome, which may reveal a further increase in the base rate of interest across the United States.

Speculators and analysts have been looking at the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 base point increase in the base rate of interest, as well as a possibility of tightening of monetary policy especially given the recent contagion across the United States banking sector in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

During the past few days, smaller regional banks have been affected and now First Republic is teetering on the brink of collapse resulting in a 61% drop in share price last week and a bank run which meant that many investors withdrew their money, subsequently depositing it with larger Tier 1 banks.

Rather incredibly, a batch of larger banks this week took their customers funds to the tune of $30 billion and deposited it in First Republic to prop it up.

As a result of this turn of events, confidence in the US banking sector is very low once again, and futures contracts on major indices are showing the bearish approach many investors are taking at a time when banks are struggling, and interest rates may rise again.

Fascinatingly, these stocks, usually traded by conservative investors due to their relative stability and long-standing presence on major exchanges are down, and the overall sentiment within the banking and US monetary situation is cautious to say the least, yet a meme stock that was responsible for the infamous market short in January 2021 is soaring.

GameStop, the entertainment firm which appeared in high profile news reports two years ago because of the reddit group WallStreetBets effectively ‘market making’ on social media and shorting the stock, causing a black swan event, is on the up.

The company, listed on the NASDAQ exchange, reported a 22.4% growth in margins and as a result, its stock soared by 43%.

It is an interesting day, when the banks, some of which are hundreds of years old, are causing more fear than a meme stock!

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 23rd MAR, 2023


ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $1612

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of $1612 on 15th Mar, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar touching a high of $1835 on 19th Mar.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

The prices of Ethereum are ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $1612 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1749 and is moving in a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1752 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1754 after which the path towards 1800 will get cleared.

We can see the formation of both bullish harami and bullish harami cross patterns in the daily time frame.

The relative strength index is at 46.05 indicating a neutral demand for Ether and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The STOCHRSI is giving an overbought signal, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a buy market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a buy signal at the current market level of $1650.

ETH is now trading above both the 200 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1612 mark.
• The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish.
• ETH continues to remain above the $1700 level.
• The average true range is indicating less market volatility.

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1612


ETHUSD has been successful in crossing the $1800 barrier after which we have seen some pullback action in the markets due to the US Fed raising the interest rates, but this is temporary and we will again see ETHUSD touching the $1800 level soon.

We can see the formation of the bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA50 in the 4-hour time frame.

The Williams percent range is indicating a neutral level in both the 15- and 30-minute time frame.

ETHUSD touched an intraday low of 1715 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1754 in the European trading session today.

The key support levels to watch are $1696 which is a 3-10-16 day MACD moving average stalls, and $1717 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average.

ETH has decreased by 1.88% with a price change of 33.62$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 12.527 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 18.44% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH was successful in crossing the $1800 handle and touched a high of $1835 after which we can see some downwards correction. After the price stabilizes, we are looking for fresh upsides in the range of $1800 to $1900 levels.

We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1612 towards the $1843 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral under present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1800 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point and at $1845 which is a 1-month high.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1900 with a consolidation zone of $1850.

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Gold Price Extends Rally While Crude Oil Price Might Correct Lower


Gold price is rising and gaining pace above the $1,950 resistance. Crude oil price is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below $70.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,950 resistance against the US Dollar.
• It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,945 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price started a fresh decline below the $70.50 support zone.
• There was a break below a rising channel with support near $70.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a base above the $1,940 support zone against the US Dollar. The price started a decent increase and was able to clear the $1,950 resistance zone.

The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,009 swing high to $1,934 low (formed on FXOpen). There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,945 on the hourly chart of gold.

Gold Price Hourly Chart


The price is now trading above the $1,980 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is also above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,009 swing high to $1,934 low.

The bulls are now facing resistance near the $2,000 zone. The next key hurdle is near the $2,010 level. A clear upside break above the $2,010 resistance could send the price towards $2,040.

If there is no upside break, the price might correct lower. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,980 level. The next major support is near the $1,970 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,950 support zone.

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Watch FXOpen's March 20 -24 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• Swiss tsunami rips through global markets: FTSE 100 wipeout noticeable
• British Pound reaches one-month high against US Dollar despite banking crisis
• EURUSD hits monthly highs ahead of Fed news
• To hike or not to hike? That is the Fed’s question

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.




FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo

GBP/USD Eyes Fresh Increase While USD/CAD Visits Key Support


GBP/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2200 support. USD/CAD corrected gains and now trading near a key support at 1.3720.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a downside correction from the 1.2340 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend lien with support near 1.2280 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD is correcting gains from the 1.3800 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3730 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above 1.2320 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained bearish momentum after there was a break below the 1.2280 support.

The pair even broke the 1.2250 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend lien with support near 1.2280 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart


Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2200 level. A low is formed near 1.2190 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 1.2220 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2343 swing high to 1.2190 low.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2250 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.2265 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2343 swing high to 1.2190 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2300 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.2340 barrier in the near term. If not, the pair could move down and might break the 1.2200 support. The next major support is near 1.2180.

If there is a downside break, GBP/USD might test the 1.2120 support. The next major support sits at 1.2050, where the bulls might take a stand.

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British Pound hits 1-month high against US Dollar


Volatility within the British Pound has been a considerable point of interest recently, especially since the Pound bounced back during the early part of this quarter from a sustained period of decline against the Euro and US Dollar which took place for several months, beginning late last year.

Today, the British Pound is trading at the higher end of the 1.23 range against the US Dollar, which is two whole pence higher than this time one month ago.

The sudden upward movement of the British Pound against the US Dollar and its sustained climb during the course of the past month has been largely down to a lower confidence in the overall United States economy following the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, and some regional banks such as First Republic, demonstrating the contagion of toxicity among the banking sector in the US.

Whilst Credit Suisse is not an American bank, one of the many contributing factors toward its demise is that in 2021, Archegos Capital Management, a family office that managed the personal assets of Bill Hwang, at one time managing over $36 billion in assets, was assisted by Credit Suisse to establish itself in the United States.

Mr Huang had been banned from trading in Hong Kong and regardless of this, Credit Suisse helped him rebrand his hedge fund as Archegos and move it to New York, subsequent to which he lost $20 billion and was arrested on charges of fraud and racketeering. Of this, Credit Suisse was exposed to approximately $5.5 billion.

Whilst that may have taken place two years ago, it was one of the US Dollar-denominated catastrophes that led to the downfall of Credit Suisse, hence memories are long, and the US financial markets economy came under the spotlight during the demise of Credit Suisse, which took place just a short time after the demise of Silicon Valley Bank.

Now, with confidence in banking at a new low across the United States, investment in that sector is being approached with trepidation, and bank stocks listed on US exchanges declined in value.

The bank run which resulted in many people and companies withdrawing their funds from First Republic then escalated in that larger Tier 1 banks then began sending their customers money to the tune of $30 billion to First Republic to try to prop it up.

This is the type of practice which does not instil confidence at all.

Interestingly, the contagion has not reached the United Kingdom and there is no banking crisis on the British side of the Atlantic.

This could be a simple explanation for the Pound’s sudden strong performance against the US Dollar, especially given that all other factors relating to high levels of inflation, and rising interest rates still continue to affect both the British and American monetary policy – neither is out of those woods, but the banking strength appears to be higher in the United Kingdom than it does across the pond.

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Unbelievably, UK banks lead FTSE 100 gains


What a fickle world we live in. Last week, America’s sudden focus on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the contagion that surrounded it in which a run on some smaller banks took place, claiming the existence of First Republic.

This caused some major North American indices to drop as investor confidence in bank stocks waned, and then just a matter of weeks later, when Swiss bank Credit Suisse collapsed, the investors on the European side of the Atlantic began to worry about the stability of the banking system and the FTSE 100 index in London experienced a £76 billion reduction in the value of the stocks listed on it.

This reduction flew in the face of predictions just one month ago which asserted that the FTSE 100 index, which is the basket of stocks of the United Kingdom’s most prestigious blue chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, may reach 8,000 points.

Instead, it dipped to around 7,300, largely due to lack of confidence in bank stocks.

Today, however, a sudden surge in value has taken place this morning as the FTSE 100 suddenly rose from 7,470 to 7,520, with this increase being led by, rather remarkably, bank stocks!

Traditional manufacturing stocks have remained strong on the FTSE 100, such as drinks manufacturer Irn Bru, as well as house building companies such as Bellway Homes which is set to make an earnings announcement imminently, however the banks in the United Kingdom have now demonstrated that they have not been subject to the toxicity that has taken place in some parts of the United States.

In fact, not only have British banks demonstrated their relative stability and have not been affected by any contagion, but the British divisions of struggling or insolvent American banks are on a road to being potentially saved.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to appear before MPs on the rescue of the UK arm of Silicon Valley Bank. The relief rally was also helped by the deal earlier this week for First Citizens bank to rescue Silicon Valley Bank.

Barclays. NatWest, Lloyds Banking Group and HSBC all made further gains, of between 1% and 2% each. Overall, the FTSE 100 added 52 points to 7523.60, a rise of 0.7%.

Since the rally that took place during the early hours, the upward direction has stabilized slightly, however this is a positive position and fears over banking have been quelled.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 28th MAR 2023


BTCUSD: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Below $28781

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week and after touching a high of $28781 on 22nd March, the price started to correct declining against the US dollar, touching a low of $26531 on 27th Mar.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a bearish engulfing pattern below the $28781 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 27238 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday low of 26837 in the European trading session today.

The commodity channel index is giving a bearish divergence signal in the weekly time frame.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The Ichimoku price is under the cloud in the weekly time frame indicating a bearish trend.

The relative strength index is at 38.03 indicating a weak demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a sell signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 26000 and 25500.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $28781.
• The RSI remains below 50 indicating a bearish market.
• The price is now trading below its pivot levels of $26998.
• The short-term range is strongly BEARISH.

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $28781


The price of Bitcoin was unable to cross the $29000 handle and we can see a sharp drop in the price which is now ranging below the $27000 level.

We are expecting more downsides in the range of $26000 and $25500 after which some market consolidation can be seen.

We can see the formation of the moving average bearish crossover pattern with the adaptive moving averages AMA50 and AMA100 in the daily time frame.

We have also detected the formation of a bearish Harami pattern in the 1-hour time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $25261 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4-week high, and at $26013 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 70%.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 26880 and Fibonacci support level of 26966 after which the path towards 26000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 3.75% by 1045.42$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 18.647 billion. We can see an increase of 28.44% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

We can see that bitcoin has changed tracks and is now moving under a continuous bearish pressure below the $27000 level.

The immediate target expected is $26000 after which we can see some consolidation in the zone of $25500 level.

The daily RSI is printing at 57.25 which indicates a neutral demand for bitcoin and the shift towards the consolidation phase in the medium-term range.

We can see the formation of a bearish trend line from $28781 towards the $26647 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $27966 which is a 38.2% retracement from its 52-week low, and at $28029 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $26000 with a consolidation zone of $25500.

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EUR/USD Gains Bullish Momentum While USD/CHF Eyes Recovery


EUR/USD started a major increase above the 1.0800 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim more gains above the 0.9220 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase from the 1.0720 support against the US Dollar.
• There is a key rising channel forming with support near 1.0830 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a fresh increase above the 0.9150 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9175 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After a steady decline, the Euro found support near the 1.0720 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair formed a base above the 1.0720 level and started a fresh increase.

There was a clear move above the 1.0750 and 1.0760 resistance levels. The pair was able to clear the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0929 swing high to 1.0713 low (formed on FXOpen). It is now trading above the 1.0800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart


An immediate resistance is near the 1.0850 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0929 swing high to 1.0713 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0880 level. A clear move above the 1.0880 resistance zone could send the pair further higher towards 1.0920. Any more gains might open the doors for a move towards the 1.1000 level.

If there is no move above 1.0850 recovery, the pair might start a fresh decline. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0830 level. There is also a key rising channel forming with support near 1.0830 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The next major support is near the 1.0800 level. A downside break below the 1.0800 support could start steady decline towards the 1.0750 level.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.