The News / Hottest

Traditional investment advisors point investors to the bond market to generate income, yet that is a dangerous undertaking in these markets. Master trader, Darek Zelek joins Merlin for a look at how he uses options to grow his portfolios and generate the desired rate of return he is looking for. The duo look at several examples of options trades on assets like Oil and Gold.



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Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector grew faster than anticipated in the month of May, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. The ISM said its purchasing managers index climbed to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April.

EURUSD M5: 71 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event :

Attachment 13685

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Greece's manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month in May, but at a slower pace, as declines in output and new orders were less severe, survey figures from Markit Economics showed Tuesday.

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2015-06-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -51.4B
• forecast data is -43.9B
• actual data is -40.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports."

"The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $60.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $19.8 billion."

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EURUSD M5: 44 pips range price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:

Attachment 13754

XAUUSD M5: 362 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:

Attachment 13755

The European Central Bank's asset purchases are proceeding as planned and will continue until there is a sustained shift in the inflation path, the ECB President Mario Draghi said Wednesday. He also reaffirmed the bank's view that Greece should remain in the euro area, as crucial talks between the country's government and creditors are due to take place in Brussels later in the day.

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Merlin welcomes Scott Greer, in a show packed with charts and analysis. The duo covers the US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, Aussie and much more! Scott also offers up a trade set-up he is watching, and may trigger any moment!



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Global food commodity prices dropped to their lowest levels in nearly six years, driven by a significant fall in cereal prices in the backdrop of a positive harvest outlook for the year, the Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.

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Attachment 13799

Goldman Sachs:

• The employment components of various manufacturing surveys have been weak (Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, Chicago PMI & the ISM services report)
• Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag
• GS say that the consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years, by 56,000 on average over the previous 5 years
• Warm weather likely inflated the jobs number in April, but this may have taken from jobs gains in May

Barclays:

• Expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k
• Private payrolls to increase by 220k
• Government payrolls to grow by 5k
• They note initial and continuing claims both fell sharply in May from April

Deutsche Bank:

• Say that jobless claims are hovering near a 15-year low
• The growth rate of employee tax withholding receipts has meaningfully increased from the April to May employment survey periods (up about 5.6% in May compared to less than 4% in April)

RBS:

• Expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y
• Which would equal the largest y/y increase since 2009
• Expect unemployment rate steady at 5.4%
• Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies

the source

2015-06-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 223K
• forecast data is 222K
• actual data is 280K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."

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EURUSD M5: 179 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :

Attachment 13809

USDJPY M5: 102 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :

Attachment 13810

XAUUSD M5: 893 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :

Attachment 13811

Former CME floor trader, Michael Young joins Merlin to discuss how he is trading these sideways markets and finding great trading opportunities.
Mr. Young takes a look at Natural Gas, and walks listeners through how he is trading it, and what his strategies are going forward. The duo stress the importance of knowing the instruments you are trading, and having a plan at all times!!



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