Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

SPX: Fibonacci analysis

The new lowering to the levels of the March minima is possible.

On the 4-hour chart the price rebounded from the level of the minima of the last two months and tried to be corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (2342.5). The further movement is unlikely, as the pair should pass the downward fan. The key “bullish” level is at 2350.0 (correction 38.2%), in case of the breakout here the price can grow to the level of 2359.5 (correction 50.0%) and 2369.0 (correction 61.8%). The new lowering to the area of the levels of 2323.0 and 2319.5 (the March minima) seems more likely to develop. However in this case the price should be set below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the level of 2338.5 (correction 23.6%). The Stochastic is reversing in the overbought area, which confirms the possibility of the lowering.

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%) and now is moving to the area of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (2365.5). The Stochastic has reversed upwards, which confirms the forecast. However the possibility of the lowering is not excluded, as the sequence confirms it. The first target of the movement will be the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%), which has been tested before.

Trading scenario

The short positions seems more preferable, but open ones if the price is set below the level of 2338.5 with the target at 2326.0, 2319.5. Stop loss is at 2343.0.

Alternative scenario

Open long positions if the price is set above the level of 2350.0 with the target at 2365.5, 2369.0 and stop loss at 2346.0.
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NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI keeps showing a Bearish dynamics. The Composite, however, is growing and is about to test its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6992 (local lows), 0.6950 (July 2016 lows), 0.6888 (March lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7072 (local highs), 0.7132 (February lows), 0.7188 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating in a sideways channel. Positions can be opened after a breakout of one of its borders.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6992 with targets at 0.6950, 0.6888 and stop-loss at 0.7020. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7072 with targets at 0.7132, 0.7188 and stop-loss at 0.7048. Validity – 3-5 days.

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last 3 day the AUD/USD pair is growing despite the strengthening of the USD due to the positive commentaries of the USA FRS members Janet Yellen, Steven Kaplan, John Williams and Charles Evans. In addition the USD was supported by the positive fundamental data: Pending Home Sales data (much better than expected) and the Consumer Confidence index (better than expected, renewal of the 5 year maximum). However the pair was supported by the RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech and the HIA New Home Sales data, so the AUD grew faster than the USD.

Today the USA Gross Domestic Product Annualized data (expected to be neutral), Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (expected to be neutral) and the Initial Jobless Claims data (expected to be negative)
The pair is expected to grow further.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7740, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading scenario

Buy the pair at the current price with the target at 0.7740, 0.7780 and stop loss at 0.7580.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7600 with the target at 0.7540 and stop loss at 0.7650.

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XAG/USD: general review

Current trend

After active growth during the week silver was corrected yesterday. The price returned to the level of 18.10 that had been successfully broken through a day earlier. The fall happened in view of strengthening of US dollar supported by positive GDP data and statements of FOMC representatives John Williams and Robert Kaplan. It seems *that the negative correlation between US dollar and precious metals started to work again after not so logical dynamics that has been observed from the end of the previous week.

Today the market is waiting for important US releases, namely personal income and expenses data at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a negative outlook, PMI Business Activity Index Chicago at 15:30 (GMT+2) also with a negative forecast, and Consumer Confidence data by the University of Michigan at 16:00 (GMT+2) with a neutral outlook.
Silver is likely to be corrected on the last trading day of the week and month.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 16.70, 17.05, 17.40, 17.75.
Resistance levels: 18.10, 18.45, 19.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at market price with targets at 17.75 and stop-loss at 18.40.
Alternatively, one may consider buying if the price consolidates above 18.10 with targets at 18.45 and stop-loss at 17.90.

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NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite is falling having broken down its longer MA.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling having failed its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its longer MA having failed its most recent resistance.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6965 (November 2016 lows), 0.6888 (March lows), 0.6875 (December 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7073 (local highs), 0.7132 (February lows), 0.7188 (local highs).

Trading tips

The pair is testing its short-term descending trendline. There is a high chance of a fall continuation.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.6965, 0.6888, 0.6875 and stop-loss at 0.7017. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7073 with targets at 0.7132, 0.7188 and stop-loss at 0.7042. Validity – 3-5 days.

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USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Last week the dynamics of the pair was mainly determined by US dollar. The growth of USD was influenced rather by the rhetorics of FOMC members than be actual fundamental values. As a result, the pair USD/JPY reached the zone of 112.00-112.10. However, it did not manage to break through this level and fell on Friday and Monday despite the growth of USD index. The strengthening of yen was caused by positive data of Japanese labour market and manufacturing industry published on Friday and Tankan Services PMI released yesterday.

No important releases from Japan are due today. US releases today include the data on trading balance at 14:30 (GMT+2) (a positive outlook with reduced deficiency) and manufacturing orders at 16:00 (GMT+2) (negative forecast), and at 22:30 (GMT+2) a statement by FOMC representative Daniel Tarullo.

Due to the absence of important publications from Japan and their small number from the USA, and also in view of the statement of Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda and publication of the minutes of a meeting of FOMC Open Markets Committee, the pair is likely to have steady dynamics within the range between 110.00-110.50 and 112.00.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.25, 107.50, 105.50.
Resistance levels: 109.25, 107.50, 105.50.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price moves from the level of 110.60 with targets at 112.40 and stop-loss at 109.70.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 110.60 with targets at 109.25 and stop-loss at 111.40.

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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

In the end of last week, the Canadian Dollar strengthened after a publication of strong data on the GDP for January in Canada that came out significantly better than the forecasts. In addition, oil prices growth that started last week also provides substantial support to the Canadian Dollar. Yesterday, after the publication of data on the Canadian Trade Balance that showed nearly one billion deficit instead of an anticipated surplus, the CAD despite the data strengthened. As the result, the pair fell to a strong support level – the lower border of the previous channel.
Today attention should be paid to data from the US on the ADP Employment Change (2:15 pm GMT+2), the ISM and Markit Services PMI’s (3:45 pm and 4:00 pm GMT+2) and to the FOMC Minutes (8:00 pm GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3280, 1.3350.
Resistance levels: 1.3440, 1.3540, 1.3600.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.3440, 1.3540 and stop-loss at 1.3350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3440 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3280 and stop-loss at 1.3530. * *

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

After the beginning of the Brexit procedure last week the pound, contrary to the opinions of analysts, showed positive dynamics. In the beginning of the current week in view of negative data from the UK (Construction and Manufacturing PMI) the pair dropped by almost 130 points. Yesterday Retail Prices Index and Services PMI in the UK appeared to be higher than forecast, and the pair grew and regained a number of positions lost in the beginning of the week, despite positive data on the unemployment rate from the USA.

No important releases from the UK are schedulled for today. Today the market is waiting for the following events from the USA: publication of Initial Jobless Claims in the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a positive outlook, statement by FOMC member John Williams at 15:30 (GMT+2), and a meeting between between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping scheduled for 17:00 (GMT+2). This is the first meeting between Trump and Chinese authorities that is likely to shape the policy of relations between two major world economies for the next several years. The expectations about this event are ambiguous, but its results will certainly influence the dynamics of instruments. *

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2510, 1.2570, 1.2700, 1.2770.
Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2340, 1.2250, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2340, 1.2250 and stop-loss at 1.2530.
Alternatively, one may consider opening buy positions from the level of 1.2430 with targets at 1.2510 and stop-loss at 1.2380.

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AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

The fall of the Australian dollar that started last week was caused by important Australian economic indicators such as Manufacturing PMI and retail sales volume that appeared to be worse than forecast. On the other hand, the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at the moderation of AUD strengthening was confirmed by the Tuesday decision to keep the 1.5% interest rate unchanged. Australian trading balance released on the same day appeared to be with proficiency and above outlooks which is a result of weakening of the natonal currency. Last month the national trading balance demonstrated deficiency caused by the strengthening of AUD for almost two months.

A speech by deputy head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle was also published yesterday. The main focus of the statement was on the reduction of the volume of foreign invesments in the industrial and national debt sectors. As a result, the pair AUD/USD continued to fall and reached the zone of 0.7530-0.7550.
No important releases from Australia are due today. Speaking about the USA, the market is waiting for the usual labour market release published in the first Friday of the month, namely on the changes in nonfarm payrolls at 14:30 (GMT+2) with negative outlook, as well as for the weekly report by Baker Hughes on active oil platforms in the USA at 20:00 (GMT+2) with positive forecast. Moreover for the last two days investors have been paying attention to the results of the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping. *

Support and resistance

The correction of the pair is the most likely scenario for today. *
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7420, 0.7310. *
Resistance levels: 0.7540, 0.7600, 0.7660, 0.7740.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7470.
Alternatively, short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7540 with targets at 0.7420 and stop-loss at 0.7640.

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DAX: Fibonacci analysis

On H4 chart the price is at the level of aggregation of Fibonacci corrections (38.2% and 23.6%) and is testing the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 12195.5. If it is broken down, the growth may continue to the marks of 12258.0 (correction 23.6%) and 12360.0 (year maximums). To continue the fall the pair has to break through the aggregation of corrections at the level of 12172.0 and lower Boillinger Band. In this case the fall may continue to the aggregation of corrections (61.8% and 38.2%) 12040.5 and 11975.0 (correction 76.4%).

On D1 chart the price is being corrected from year maximums but fails to break down through the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 12130.0. If the price consolidates below it, it may continue the decrease to the level of 11820.0 (correction 23,6%). Otherwise the price may reverse and update year maximums at 12314.0. Generally, growth seems possible in the short terms, as Stochastic is turned upwards.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 12195.5 with targets at 12258.0, 12360.0 and stop-loss at 12159.0.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 12115.0 with targets at 12040.5, 11975.0 and stop-loss at 12143.0.

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