Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes are traditionally moving upwards along with the growing of geopolitical tension in the world. After the news that the USA plan a tough response to the actions of North Korea, the prices of the metal grew by 1.49% on Tuesday. Today gold tested the resistance level of 1279.68 (a maximum since 10.11.2016) after which correction followed. Due to the absence of important macroeconomic releases today and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation the scenario of further correction development seems likely.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators show the preservation of the growth potential, not excluding the scenario of short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands are directed upwards indicating the preservation of buy activity. However the price broke through the upper line which is a sign of rate correction. The level of 1261.15 (corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger Bands) look like the main target of correction.

MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing. Breaking through the level of 1260.18 and consolidation above it will be a signal of growth continuation. In this case the growth will continue to the level of 1288.67.
Support levels: 1270.90, 1266.00, 1261.15, 1256.00.
Resistance levels: 1279.68, 1288.67, 1296.18.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1270.90 with targets at 1266.00, 1261.15 and stop-loss at 1273.00.
Buy positions may be opened above 1279.68 with targets at 1288.67 and stop-loss at 1276.60.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

After the beginning of the Brexit procedure GBP had unusual dynamics. Since the beginning of this week the British currency has been strengthening. Investors were waiting for the publication of important consumer and manufacturer prices indexes that were released yesterday and appeared to be better than outlook. This increased the possibility that the Bank of England will pursue a "hawkish" monetary policy. Yesterday's statement by the Bank of England head Mark Carney did not cover the policy directly but was generally optimistic. After it the pair GBP/USD decreased from the level of 1.2500. However, yesterday's report on the fulfillment of the US federal budget appeared to be much worse than the forecast which weakened USD, and the pair moved upwards, updating its 2-weeks maximums.
Today's only release from the UK will be the report of the Bank of England on lending terms at 10:30 (GMT+2). However, the news is considered secondary. From the USA the market is waiting for initial jobless claims with a negative outlook at 14:30 (GMT+2) and the manufacturers price index at the same time and with the same forecast.

On Friday the Christian world will abstain from trading, and the market activity is likely to be low. Today one may expect the pair to continue consoliating.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2510, 1.2430, 1.2350, 1.2250.
Resistance levels: 1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2780.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2610, 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2500.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2510 with targets at 1.2430 and stop-loss 1.2610.

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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Current week was characterized by little trust in US dollar and strengthening of commodity assets, including petrochemicals that are the most politically dependent. The growth of oil was supported by an OPEC report published in April 12 that reflected the growing demand expectations for the upcoming year and indicated the reduction of world oil reserves in general (except for the USA). On the same day US Energy Information Adminstration informed about the reduction of oil reserves by 2.2 mln barrels. As a result, after breaking through the zone of 56.00, Brent updated its 5-weeks minimum. Yesterday the growth of the asset was being corrected. It happened after the publication of a report by the US Department of Energy stating that oil production will reach an unprecedented level in 2018. Correction did not exceed the limits of critical values and did not turn into a reversal. IIt is likely it was a result of locking in profits by certain market players in view of long holidays.
Today the market will pay attention to retail sales and consumer prices index from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a negative outlook, as well as to weekly data in the number of active oil platforms at 19:00 (GMT+2). The growth of the latter indicator has a negative impact on oil prices.

Support and resistance

The most likely forecast for today is the continuation of correction at the level of 55.00-57.20.
Support levels: 55.00, 54.40, 53.75.
Resistance levels: 56.15, 57.20, 58.45.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 56.15, 57.20 and stop-loss at 55.50.
Alternatively, one may open sell positions from the level of 55.00 with targets at 54.40, 53.75 and stop-loss at 55.40.

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USD/JPY: the reversal from the support levels is possible

Current trend
From the middle of March the JPY is growing against the USD. As the USD, the EUR and GBP are unstable, the investors’ interest towards the JPY is growing. In addition the Japan main economy sectors data are positive, which also supports the JPY. The USA macroeconomic data are controversial, and the restrained position of the USA FRS members upon the further decreasing of the stimulating program presses the USD significantly, so the pair is lowering during the last 5 trading weeks.
Last week the list of the negative USA issues was published, which weakened the USD. The Japan Industrial Production data and the Machine Tool Orders report, published in the same period, were positive.
Today the volatility is not expected to be high due to the absence of the key macroeconomical issues.

Support and resistance
Today the pair continued to lower, and the decrease can continue to the level of 107.30 in the short term, and then the pair will reverse into the upward correction. The Bank of Japan has stated that the high rate of the JPY is not profitable for the Japan economy, so the reversal is possible in the middle term period. The trend can change at the key support level at 107.30, 106.50, 105.50.
The technical indicators reflect the consolidation of the trend, MACD short positions volumes are growing.
Support levels: 108.10, 107.30, 106.50, 105.50, 104.10
Resistance levels: 108.80, 109.15, 109.85, 110.10, 110.50, 111.45, 112.20, 112.90

Trading scenario
It’s better to increase the volume of the short positions in the current trend with the target at 107.30, 106.50, but remember that the trend can change in the nearest future. Stop loss is at 109.30.

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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair grew due to the slight weakness of the USD. The European markets were closed due to the Easter holidays, which affected the volatility and liquidity in the morning. The EUR began to grow against the USD, when the USA session opened, and the pair reached the level of 1.0670.
The traders wait for the upcoming Elections in France. Despite the fact that one of the major candidates Le Pen, who supports the tight policy, is losing her positions in the opinions pall, the major part of the electorate still didn’t make up its mind. Taking in consideration the election experience in the other countries, the objectivity of the opinion polls is doubtful, so the electing of the right wing candidate is still possible. In this scenario the Eurozone will have a hard time, as Le Pen supports the France leaving the EU.
The Presidential Elections in France are due at Sunday.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is lowering towards the strong resistance level of 1.0700. MACD is below the zero line, but is ready to cross the signal line, its volumes decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral line, pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0590, 1.0550.
Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0770, 1.0830.

Trading scenario
Buy the pair is the price is set above the level of 1.0700 with the target at 1.0770, stop loss is at 1.0670.
Open short positions below the level of 1.0650 and target at 1.0590 and 1.0550, stop loss is at 1.0680.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.


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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
On Tuesday Brent quotes decreased to the level of 55.00. This happened after the statement by Saudi Arabia Minister of Energy Khalid A. Al-Falih that is was early to consider the possibility of extension of OPEC+ agreement. The disappointment of the market was not eliminated even by the weekly report of American Petroleum Institute according to which US oil reserves reduced yet again by 840K barrels. The quotes still remain at the level of 55.00. Today the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo tried to calm down the investors by saying that the cartel was optimistic about the situation and that the measures taken by it would lead to the recovery of the market. Another positive factor for the bulls was the statement by the UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei who pointed out that he was satisfied with the fulfillment of the agreement on the reduction of oil production.
These statement led to the growth of the quotes to 55.40. Upward movement may continue if API data is confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. New weekly reduction of oil reserves may push the quotes to April maximums to the level of 56.60.

Support and resistance
Technically the price is trading within a narrow downward channel. Breaking through its upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 55.55 may lead to further growth to 56.15 and 56.65. Otherwise the downward movement may resume to the level of 54.10 (correction 38.2%).
Support levels: 55.10, 54.10, 53.35.
Resistance levels: 55.55, 56.15, 56.65.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened below 55.10 with targets at 54.10 and stop-loss at 55.30. In case the level of 55.55 is broken out, long positions with targets at 56.15, 56.60 and stop-loss at *55.15 will be relevant.

WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil, D1
On D1 chart the instrument dropped down and corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in positive zone with its volume at the minimum, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from below, which is a signal to open long positions. Stochastic signal line is in the neutral zone and is directed downwards. If the signal line crosses the border between the neutral zone and the oversold zone will indicate possible reversal of the price.
WTI Crude Oil, H4
On H4 chart the instrument reached the lower border of Bollinger Bands and slowed down its fall. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from above, which is a signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, moving along the border with the oversold zone and not giving any clear signal.

Key levels
Support levels: 51.00, 50.50, 50.00, 49.30, 48.00, 47.15.
Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.50, 53.00, 53.50, 54.10, 54.50, 55.00.

Trading tips
In view of technical indicators, opening short positions from the current price with targets at 50.50, 50.00 seems preferable. Stop-loss should be placed on the level of 51.80. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Buy positions may be opened at the level of 52.00 with targets at 52.50, 53.00 and stop-loss at 51.70. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The growth of GBP/USD slowed down today in view of publication of retail sales data from the UK. The indicator appeared to be less than forecast and reduced by 1.8% in monthly terms. On YoY basis it increased oinly by 1.7% against the expected growth by 3.4%. However, after significant growth in the beginning of the week the pound remains quite confident against US dollar and keeps trying to consolidate above 1.2850. The key support level is 1.2700. After breaking through it the "bulls" are likely to take a break which may lead to a correction to the level of 1.2400 in the medium term.
Today traders should pay attention to news from the USA namely changes in Markit Manufacturing PMI as well as compound Markit PMI.

Support and resistance
On D1 chart the price corrected to the upper border of Bollinger Band and slowed growth. MACD histogram is in the positive area and keeps the signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2760.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2690 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2720.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week the pair was traded controversial. In the beginning of the week the AUD was lowering due to the RBA meeting minutes, which confirmed the “dovish” policy and kept the interest rate on the minimum level. On Thursday and Friday the USD was lowering after the publication of the negative employment market and building data.
Yesterday the USD continued to fall due to the negative secondary business activity data. Despite the fact that the AUD/USD trading day closed in the red zone the whole dynamics is positive. The pair strongly consolidated above the level of 0.7500.
Today is ANZAC Day in Australia, so the banks don’t work and there is no news and publications, so the traders should pay attention to the USA Consumer Confidence publication (expected to be negative) and the New Home Sales data (expected to be negative, too).
On Wednesday the Australian Consumer Price Index is worth traders’ attention (expected to be positive). If it meets the expectations and the corresponding RBA decisions follows, the AUD will strengthen in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380, 0.7310.
Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7570, 0.7680, 0.7750.

Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7615, 0.7680, stop loss is at 0.7480.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7490 with the target at 0.7440, 0.7380, stop loss is at 0.7530.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The consolidation of the pair after the rapid growth on last Tuesday reflects the investors’ uncertainty in the further dynamics, as they are waiting for clearer signals. Yesterday in the first half of the day US dollar was strengthening, but the pair managed to keep its positions. Tonight's growth attempts of USD were also followed by the strengthening of GBP/USD which indicates slim chanses of the pair's quick return to monthly or even 2-weeks minimums. On Friday the UK GDP key data (expected to be positive) and the YoY USA GDP data (expected to be negative) are worth traders’ attention.
Today there is no significant news from the UK, and the Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation data (expected to be negative) and the Pending Home Sales data (expected to be negative) are to be published today in the USA.
The consolidation of the pair until Friday is expected.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.3035, 1.3200.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2865.

Trading scenario
Open short positions at the current price with the targets at 1.2780, 1.2700, stop loss is at 1.2930.
Buy the pair at the level of 1.2930 with the target at 1.3035 and stop loss at 1.2890.