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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; XAG/USD: technical analysis 2019-08-14 09:42 (GMT+2) Silver XAG/USD, H4 On a 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within a sideways ...

      
   
  1. #841
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    XAG/USD: technical analysis
    2019-08-14 09:42 (GMT+2) Silver
    XAG/USD, H4

    On a 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within a sideways channel formed by the boundaries of Bollinger bands. The pair was corrected to the midline of the indicator, the formation of a side trend continues. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, keeping a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are reversing upwards.

    XAG/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the uptrend is still in force. The instrument is trading near the upper border of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is narrowing. The MACD histogram is in the positive area, while keeping a confident signal to open buy orders. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are reversing downwards from the border with the overbought zone.

    Key levels

    Resistance levels: 16.98, 17.10, 17.24, 17.37, 17.51.
    Support levels: 16.81, 16.67, 16.57, 16.49, 16.35, 16.25, 16.11, 15.92.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 17.37 and stop loss 16.67.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.65 with the target at 16.25. Stop loss 16.85.
    Implementation period: 1–3 days.

  2. #842
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    Brent Crude Oil: general analysis
    2019-08-16 08:33 (GMT+2) Brent
    Current trend

    Oil prices are falling. One of the reasons for the fall of "black gold" is associated with a slowdown in the global economy. Thus, statistics from China reflected an unexpected record drop in industrial production to 4.8% against the forecast of 5.8%, the last time such data were recorded 17 years ago. Investors were also disappointed with the German GDP, which has declined in the second quarter.

    The second factor, which also negatively affected quotes, was the publication of data on commercial US oil reserves, which grew by 1.58 million barrels against the forecast of –2.78 million barrels. As for the total oil production, it remained at the same level of 12.3 million barrels per day. If the trend continues, it is possible that OPEC may intervene in order to balance the market by reducing energy production.

    Today, traders will focus on data on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.

    Support and resistance

    Stochastic is around 23 points and does not give signals for opening positions.
    Resistance levels: 59.55, 61.40.
    Support levels: 57.71, 56.10.

  3. #843
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-19 08:27 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro closed last week with a steady decline against the US dollar, retreating to new local lows of August 2. The European currency remains pressured amid the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. In addition, investors responded positively to Donald Trump’s recent statements that the US-China trade conflict could still end with the signing of a final agreement. Published on August 16, macroeconomic statistics from the United States was ambiguous. Investors were optimistic about the dynamics in the number of building permits, which reflected an increase of 8.4% MoM in July after a decrease of 5.2% MoM last month. However, the changes in the number of new residential houses in July fell by 4.0% MoM after a decrease of 1.8% MoM last month. The dollar was also pressured by The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. According to preliminary estimates, the index fell from 98.4 to 92.1 points with a forecast of 97.2 points.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound corrected against the US dollar late last week, updating local highs of August 8th. The pound was supported by technical correction factors, while the situation around Brexit continues to put pressure on GBP. UK citizens may face food and drug shortages during the first few months after the UK leaves the EU without an agreement. Meanwhile, the government of Boris Johnson still does not have any noticeable progress on the issue of concluding an agreement, so there is growing talk about a possible vote of no confidence. On the one hand, this supports the position of the British currency, since there is a real chance to avoid the "tough" Brexit. On the other hand, the growth of political competition threatens with a new crisis, which will be extremely painful for the prospects of the British economy in the face of growing uncertainty in world markets.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed uncertain growth against the US one at the end of last week, recovering slightly after a noticeable decline on August 14. The instrument was supported by technical correction factors, as well as by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August fell from 98.4 to 92.1 points with a forecast of 97.2 points. Today, the instrument continues the previous trend. At the beginning of a new week, there are few interesting macroeconomic statistics on the market, so investors expect Tuesday when the minutes of the last RBA meeting will be published.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on August 16, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. It is curious that the growth of the instrument proceeded against the background of the publication of ambiguous US macroeconomic statistics, which, in particular, indicated a drop in consumer confidence in August. Today, the dollar maintains a weak "bullish" mood. The yen is pressured by weak data on the dynamics of the trade balance. In July, the balance reached a deficit of 249.6 billion Japanese yen, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 200.0 billion. Japanese exports in July fell by 1.6% YoY after a decline of 6.6% YoY last month. Imports for the same period declined by 1.2% YoY after declining by 5.2% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, interrupting the development of the "bearish" impulse that formed on August 14. Moderate support for quotes was provided by favorable data on the dynamics of retail sales in the USA, as well as rather optimistic comments by Donald Trump regarding the prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the USA and China. Negative forecasts from OPEC, as well as the published report by Baker Hughes, which reflected the growth of active oil platforms in the USA from 764 to 770 units, restrained more confident price increase.

  4. #844
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-20 08:24 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Monday but returned to growth today. Strengthening of the instrument is largely technical since the macroeconomic background particularly didn't change. The consumer price index in the Eurozone in July showed a decline of 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a decline by 0.4% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from 1.3% to 1.0%, which also turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 1.1%. On Tuesday, investors are focused on a block of statistics on industrial inflation in Germany for July and the dynamics of production in the Eurozone's construction sector in June.

    GBP/USD

    At the beginning of the new week, the British pound returned to decline against the US dollar as fears of a recession in the US economy began to gradually fade. Recall that the market reacted quite sharply to the reversal of the yield curve of US treasury bonds, which is usually considered the first sign of the beginning of a recession. Nevertheless, the Fed representatives and President Donald Trump personally managed to calm the markets, as a result of which the yield curve returned to its "normal" form. In turn, pressure on the pound continues to increase as the Brexit deadline approaches. Investors fear that the British economy will face a shortage of food, medicines, and energy in the first few months after leaving the EU without a deal.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar begins a new week with lateral dynamics against the US currency. A weak decline on August 19 gave way to uncertain growth today. Moderate support for the Australian dollar is provided by the published minutes of the RBA meeting of August 6, given that the meeting itself was neutral. As before, the regulator is ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy but prefers to act with caution. A significant source of uncertainty in the actions of the RBA remains the growth of external tension, in particular, emanating from the US-China conflict. As for internal factors, the Australian regulator relies on positive dynamics in the labor market. According to the Central Bank, inflation will remain slightly below 2% during 2020 and will exceed this psychological level only in 2021.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar is developing an upward trend against the Japanese yen, approaching local highs of August 13 and 15. The "bullish" sentiment on the instrument was strengthened by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published on Monday. In addition, investors calmed somewhat regarding the onset of the recession in the US economy. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. On Tuesday, the macroeconomic background remains fairly neutral, so a significant increase in activity should not be expected so far.

    Oil

    At the beginning of the new week, oil prices rose, having received support due to the aggravation of the conflict in the Middle East. The media got information that one of the Saudi oil fields was attacked by the Yemenite Hussites, although later Saudi Arabia stated that this incident did not affect the dynamics of oil production. In turn, the market welcomed the release of the Iranian oil tanker, which was captured by Gibraltar in July. On August 20, investors are awaiting the publication of an API report on oil reserves for the week of August 16. The previous report reflected growth in stocks by 3.7 million barrels.

  5. #845
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-22 08:28 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on August 21, continuing the development of a flat trend in the short term. Pressure on the European currency was exerted by news of possible aggravation of the US-China trade relations. Donald Trump previously thought about the possibility of introducing import duties on European goods, but the US Presidential Administration then refused this in the face of uncertain relations with China. This time, Trump proposed introducing duties on European cars. Another negative factor for the euro was the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, which threatens another political crisis in the country. Recall that Italy is periodically criticized by the EU because it does not fit into its budget deficit norms (which is fraught with penalties). Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are focused on a block of statistics on business activity in Europe for August. The minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy are also expected to be published.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound weakened against the US dollar on Wednesday, offsetting the uncertain growth of the instrument the day before. The growth of the British currency is restrained by the problems around Brexit, which continue to worry the markets. In the near future, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to hold a series of meetings with European leaders in order to create a coalition that would help him convince the European Commission to reconsider a number of issues in the current agreement. The backstop clause on the Irish border is the cornerstone in the agreement. Additional pressure on the pound on Wednesday was provided by macroeconomic publications from the UK. The volume of net public sector borrowing in July fell by −1.917 billion pounds, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of −2.650 billion.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics on Wednesday, but today returned to an active decline. AUD is pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Commonwealth Bank’s Services PMI fell in August from 52.3 to 49.2 points, with an expected decline to 51.8 points. The composite index fell from 52.1 to 49.5 points, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts of 51.5 points. The Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 51.6 to 51.3 points (forecast 51.0 points). The US currency was supported by data on the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market. According to data for July, sales grew by 2.5% MoM against a decline of 1.3% MoM last month.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on August 21, having received support from good macroeconomic statistics on sales in the secondary housing market. The published minutes of the July meeting of the US Fed were mixed, and, as analysts estimate, are not a "bullish" factor for the dollar. Investors were confused by the big disagreements within the FOMC. Some participants suggested reducing the rate immediately by 50 basis points, while others advocated its preservation at the current level. Today, the pair is trading in a downtrend, ignoring weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in August grew from 49.4 to 49.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 49.8 points. The activity index in all industries collapsed in June by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month (with a forecast of −0.7% MoM).

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a slight increase on Wednesday. Quotes were supported by a published report from the US Department of Energy. Over the week of August 16, crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 437.8 million, which was better than market expectations. At the same time, gasoline inventories rose again by 312K barrels, while investors expected a reduction of 200K. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change and amounted to 12.300 million barrels per day.

  6. #846
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-23 08:25 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on August 22, closing with a slight "bearish" advantage. The European currency was supported by published macroeconomic data on business activity. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in August rose from 46.5 to 47.0 points against the forecast of a decrease to 46.2 points. Markit Services PMI for the same period increased from 53.2 to 53.4 points, which is also above forecasts of 53.0 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 51.5 to 51.8 points (forecast 51.2 points). Today, the euro is trading in a downtrend. Investors are waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. Powell is expected to comment on future monetary policy plans.

    GBP/USD

    The pound has appreciably strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday, but today again returned to decline. Strong support for the British currency was provided by the comments of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who recalled that there is time until the end of October to conclude a deal between the UK and the EU. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed a tougher stance, emphasizing that the EU does not intend to revise the provision on the backstop of the Irish border. He believes that only minor changes are possible in the text of the final agreement. Additional pressure on the pound on Thursday was put by the published CBI report on retail. Sales in August fell by 49% MoM to their lowest levels since December 2008. Analysts had expected a decline of only 11%.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar returned to active decline against the US dollar on August 22, amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on business activity from Australia by Commonwealth Bank. American data on business activity also turned out to be worse than market expectations, however, this did not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. The Markit Manufacturing PMI index in the US fell from 50.4 to 49.9 points, while analysts expected growth to 50.5 points. The Services PMI, according to preliminary estimates, fell from 53.0 to 50.9 points with a forecast of 52.8 points. The composite business activity index over the same period decreased from 52.6 to 50.9 points (forecast 51.7 points).

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on August 22, leveling the slight growth the day before. On Thursday, the macroeconomic background remained negative for both the yen and the dollar. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in August grew from 49.4 to 49.5 points with the forecast of 49.8 points. The activity index in all industries dropped in June by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.5% in May. The US data reflected a sharp decline in the composite PMI from 52.6 to 50.9 points. Today, the yen is trading with moderate growth. Investors analyze macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from Japan and expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. The national consumer price index in July slowed down from 0.7% to 0.5% YoY, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell moderately on Thursday, responding to worsening forecasts for global economic growth. A more confident decline in quotes was hampered by the previously published EIA report, which reflected a strong decline in oil reserves for the week of August 16. On Friday, investors expect the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak in Jackson Hole. Powell is expected to comment on the prospects for further interest rate cuts in the USA. Given the ongoing pressure on the Fed from President Donald Trump, it is likely that Powell will try to carefully hint at possible timing and ways to support the economy. In the evening, market participants are awaiting the Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US.

  7. #847
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-26 08:34 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    Euro rose against US dollar on Friday, returning to the local highs of August 15. The instrument grew sharply due to the rapid weakening of the US currency against the background of the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell noted that the regulator is ready to further reduce the interest rate if the economic situation so requires. According to him, the trade war with China and the threat of starting one with the EU significantly complicate the development of long-term scenarios for the Fed, as well as contribute to a further slowdown in the global economy. Immediately after Powell’s speech, Donald Trump attacked the Fed with criticism on Twitter, accusing the regulator of inaction. During the Asian session on August 26, the instrument is expected to correct. Investors expect publication of statistics from Germany on the dynamics of business sentiment in August.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound closed last week with moderate growth, updating the local highs of July 29. The instrument was supported by not the strongest positions in the American currency, which weakened against the background of the slurred speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole. USD was also under pressure from macroeconomic statistics on new home sales in the US. In July, the index declined by 12.8% MoM after growing by 20.9% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to appear, but counted on only –0.2% MoM decline. The speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at the symposium was neutral. Carney ignored monetary policy issues and concentrated on finding a replacement for the dollar as a global reserve currency.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar remains under pressure and shows mainly negative dynamics against the US currency. The growth of the "bearish" sentiment is due to the further aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Beijing said on Friday that it would introduce new USD 75 billion import duties on US goods in response to similar measures by the United States (new US duties will be imposed on September 1). In addition, China intends to introduce import duties on US cars in the amount of 25%.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Friday, reacting to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Powell signaled that the regulator is ready for further stimulation measures if the situation in the economy so requires. After the symposium ended, the Fed action was heavily criticized by Donald Trump on Twitter. Additional support for the yen on Friday was provided by China's announcement of its intention to introduce reciprocal import duties on US goods in the amount of USD 75 billion from September 1. During the Asian session on August 26, the instrument shows corrective growth, opening with a negative gap. With the opening of the American session, statistics on the dynamics of orders for durable goods in the US for July are expected to be released.

    Oil

    Oil prices fell on Friday, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" impulse formed the day before. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the aggravation of fears regarding a further slowdown in global economic growth. In particular, on Friday, China announced the introduction of reciprocal import duties on US goods in the amount of USD 75 billion, which could significantly postpone the possible signing of a trade agreement between the countries. Moderate support for the instrument on Friday was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. During the week as of August 23, their number decreased by 16 units to 754 units. The previous report indicated an increase by 4 drilling rigs. During the Asian session on August 26, oil quotes showed moderate growth, following the general market trend.

  8. #848
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-28 08:35 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, continuing to develop a powerful "bearish" impulse formed the day before. Some pressure on the instrument yesterday was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Germany's GDP for Q2 2019 showed a decrease of 0.1% QoQ, which coincided with the decline in the previous period. In annual terms, GDP grew by 0.4% YoY, which met the expectations of analysts and coincides with previous growth rates. Europe's leading economy has been declining for the second quarter in a row, which means the proximity of a technical recession and, coupled with a slowdown in the global economy, creates a very pessimistic picture for the euro. During the Asian session on August 28, the pair is trading downwards again. Investors expect publication of August data on consumer confidence in Germany and Italy, as well as statistics on Private Sector Loans in the euro area in July.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed growth against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local highs of July 29. Positive dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by macroeconomic publications from the UK and the USA. Gross Mortgage Approvals in the UK in July increased from 42.8K to 43.3K, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of 42.8K. In turn, American statistics turned out worse than the forecasts. S&P/CaseShiller House Price Index in June slowed down from +2.4% YoY to +2.1% YoY with a forecast of +2.5% YoY. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the BRC Shop Price Index. In July, the indicator crashed by 0.4% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY last month.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar is again trading lower against the US currency, staying close to its record lows, updated on August 7. The pressure on the instrument intensified after the market did not receive confirmation from the PRC of its intention to resume trade negotiations with the United States, as previously stated by Donald Trump. Apparently, the parties will exchange mutual duties in early September, which will push the global economy to a recession. During the Asian session on August 28, the pair is under pressure from the weak macroeconomic statistics of Australia. Construction Work Done for Q2 2019 fell by 3.8% QoQ after a decrease of 2.2% QoQ in the last quarter. Analysts expected a decrease of 1.0% QoQ only.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, returning to decline after strong growth the day before. The increased demand for safe assets was due to growing concerns about a further slowdown in the global economy, after China did not confirm the possibility of a resumption of trade negotiations with the United States. At the beginning of the week, Donald Trump said that he had a telephone conversation with the Chinese side, in which China allegedly expressed a desire to go back to the negotiating table.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed steady growth on Tuesday, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum that formed at the beginning of the week. Quotes were previously supported by hopes for a resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China. However, according to recent data, these hopes may turn out to be false, since the Chinese side has not yet confirmed Donald Trump's statements. Powerful support for the instrument was provided on Tuesday by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock. For the week as of August 23, the indicator fell by 11.1 million barrels after a decrease of 3.5 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

  9. #849
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-29 08:32 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The development of negative dynamics is facilitated by the general pessimistic background in the market. Investors fear the onset of a global recession caused by a further escalation of trade tension and a decline in the world's leading economies. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published on Wednesday turned out to be contradictory. GfK German Consumer Climate remained unchanged at 9.7 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations. At the same time, the Import Price Index continued to decline, decreasing in July by 2.1% YoY after falling by 2.0% YoY last month. Analysts had expected decline by 1.7% YoY only. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a raise. Investors expect the release of European statistics on business sentiment. In addition, Germany will report on the dynamics of consumer prices in August.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound returned to active decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, retreating from the local highs of July 29, updated the day before. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was the news that the government of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to appeal to Queen Elizabeth II with a request to extend the break in the work of the British Parliament until mid-October. If Johnson’s plan is implemented, parliamentarians will have virtually no time to prevent Britain’s exit from the EU under a "hard" scenario. During today's Asian session, the instrument is quite stable, waiting for new drivers to appear in the market. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK will only appear on Friday, so today publications from the USA will be in the spotlight. Among other things, investors expect the release of preliminary data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2019.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar continues to decline moderately against the US currency, approaching its record lows, updated on August 7. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by further escalation of trade tension between the United States and China. This Sunday, countries will exchange mutual import duties, which will only increase the risks of a global economic recession. There is little hope that the United States and China may return to negotiations in the near future. Australian macroeconomic statistics also have a negative effect on the instrument. Construction Work Done for Q2 2019 fell by 3.8% QoQ after a decrease of 2.2% QoQ in the last quarter. Investors had expected a decline of only 1.0% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against the Japanese yen, trying to develop a "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. Attitude to risk in the market is constantly changing, which allows the Japanese currency to periodically show moderate growth. In turn, pressure on the yen is exerted by the further escalation of the trade conflict between Japan and South Korea, while the US currency is under pressure from rising tensions on another front, where the United States and China are opposing parties. During the Asian session on August 29, USD is again trading lower, pending the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. A preliminary estimate of US GDP for Q2 2019 is in the spotlight. In addition, investors are interested in Consumer Spending and Pending Home Sales in July.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a moderate increase in trading on Wednesday, receiving support from a published report from the US Department of Energy, which confirmed the API data published earlier and reflected a decrease in US oil inventories by 10.027 million barrels. In addition, the Department of Energy reported a significant decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories by 2.1 million barrels. In turn, US oil production again showed growth from 12.300 to 12.500 million barrels per day. More confident positive dynamics in the instrument was hampered by concerns about the development of a recession in the global economy amid worsening trade relations between the US and China.

  10. #850
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-09-02 08:40 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency fell significantly against the US dollar on Friday, updating record lows of mid-May 2017. The pressure on the instrument intensified at the end of last week amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Retail sales in Germany showed a decrease of 2.1% MoM in July after rising by 3.0% MoM last month. Analysts expected a decline of –1.3% MoM. The EU Core Consumer Price index in August remained at the previous level of +0.9% YoY, while investors expected it to accelerate to +1.0% YoY. Thus, inflation in Europe continues to remain significantly below the ECB target levels, forcing the latter to act more aggressively. A number of analysts believe that the European regulator may resort to new stimulation measures already at the September meeting. In particular, the market does not exclude the possibility of resuming the quantitative easing program.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a moderate decline against the US dollar at the end of last week, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed on August 28. The pound is still under pressure due to the aggravation of the domestic political situation in the UK amid the approach of the Brexit deadline. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked the Queen for permission to extend the Parliament summer recess until mid-October, so that they would not be able to pass a bill prohibiting the country from leaving the EU without a valid agreement. Members of the opposition parties said they would try to meet the deadlines. However, official statements often contain calls to declare a vote of no confidence in the government. At the end of last week, moderate support to the pound was provided by data on consumer lending. Net Lending to Individuals in July increased from 4.8 to 5.5 billion pounds. Mortgage Approvals in July rose from 66.51K to 66.26K, which also exceeded the market expectations of 66.17K.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar maintains a moderate downtrend against the US currency, again approaching local lows of August 26. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the uncertain situation surrounding the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may resume in September, but, according to many analysts, are unlikely to lead to a noticeable improvement in the situation. Meanwhile, the parties introduced mutual import duties on September 1, which may already negatively affect the growth rate of the global economy. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. US markets are closed due to Labor Day, so the Australian dollar has a chance of correction. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 51.3 to 53.1 points in August. Terms of Trade index in Q2 2019 rose from 1.0% to 1.6%. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.9 to 50.4 points, exceeding the forecast of 49.8 points.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed a moderate decline against the Japanese yen last Friday, interrupting the development of a "bullish" impulse formed in the middle of the week. The yen was supported by macroeconomic data from Japan published on August 30. The unemployment rate in July fell from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the market expected its growth to 2.4%. Industrial production in July grew by 1.3% MoM and 0.7% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations. During today's Asian session, the dollar is trading with an increase. The yen is under pressure from Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, which reflected a further decline in business sentiment. In August, the index fell from 49.5 to 49.3 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a negative trend on Friday after moderate growth throughout the past trading week. The quotes decreased against the background of the corrective growth of the American currency, as well as due to published data from Reuters, which indicated an increase in oil production by OPEC. In August, production increased by 80K barrels, showing growth for the first time in 2019. A more confident negative dynamics in the instrument at the end of the last trading week was hindered by the published Baker Hughes report, which reflected a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs over the week as of August 30 from 754 to 742 units. Additional support for quotes is provided by Hurricane Dorian, which last weekend intensified to the highest category and reached the Bahamas, and this night can reach the coast of Florida.

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