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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review 2019-07-29 08:38 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a moderate decline against USD on July 26, approaching the record ...

          
   
  1. #831
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-07-29 08:38 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a moderate decline against USD on July 26, approaching the record lows of May 2017, updated the day before. The development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by not the strongest macroeconomic data from Europe. The German Import Price Index in June fell by 1.4% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations (–0.8% MoM and –1.5% YoY). In turn, the data published in the US was able to provide moderate support to USD. Preliminary estimates reflected a slowdown in the US economy in Q2 2019 from +3.1% to +2.1% YoY, which turned out to be somewhat better than market expectations of +1.8% YoY. Pressure on EUR is also exerted by the prospect of another monetary policy easing by the ECB, which is not straightforward yet. It is likely that the regulator will decide on new interest rate reductions only in the first half of 2020.

    GBP/USD

    GBP declined significantly against USD on Friday, updating local lows of April 2017. British investors are still focused on Boris Johnson's victory in the elections. The new head of the Conservative Party is still engaged in the selection of the government and has not yet noted any concrete steps in the Brexit issue, but the market is very negative. In particular, investors draw attention to the criticism of Johnson by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ireland. During the Asian session on July 29, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. A large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK is planned to be published today. The first in line will be the data on Nationwide House price index. The statistics on BoE Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals in June are also expected to be released.

    AUD/USD

    AUD closed on Friday with a steady decline against USD, updating local lows of June 21. At the end of last week, there were no interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia; therefore, the movement of the instrument was largely technical. In turn, the data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2019 contributed to the preservation of the "bearish" dynamics. Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown in the US economy to +1.8% YoY, real data indicated an increase of +2.1% YoY, which may be a signal in favor of maintaining the current monetary policy at the Fed meeting at the end of the month. On Wednesday, July 31, investors are also awaiting the publication of important statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in Australia for Q2 2019.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed insignificant growth against JPY on Friday, having updated local highs of July 10. The development of ambiguous trading dynamics was promoted by macroeconomic publications from Japan and the USA, as well as the fact of fixing long profits after the rally of the dollar last week. During the Asian session on July 29, the pair is trading in both directions. The focus of investors is on the retail sales data in Japan. In June, sales volumes showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis, after rising by 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts expected the increase of +0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the increase has slowed from +1.3% YoY to +0.5% YoY, with the forecast of +0.2% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics at the end of last week, as the growth of tensions in the Middle East was held back by signals of a slowdown in US economic growth. Despite the fact that Friday's data on US GDP for Q2 2019 turned out to be better than expected (+2.1% YoY against the forecast of +1.8% YoY), the slowdown rate is quite noticeable, therefore one can still expect steps aimed at stimulating the national economy by the Fed. Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the US published last Friday showed moderate support for quotations, indicating a further reduction in the number of drilling rigs from 779 to 776 units.

  2. #832
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-07-31 08:39 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Tuesday. The controversial macroeconomic releases from Europe contributed to the decline of EUR, while further growth of USD was hampered by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed at its meeting on Wednesday, July 31. Industrial Sentiment in the euro area in July showed a decrease to –7.4 points from –5.6 points last month. Analysts expected a decrease to –7.0 points. Business Climate in the euro area in July fell from 0.17 to –0.12 points, which also turned out to be worse than market forecasts of 0.08 points. The data from France were also disappointing. According to preliminary estimates, French GDP in Q2 2019 slowed down from +0.3% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ. French Consumer Spending in June showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. On Wednesday, in addition to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the data on euro area's GDP for Q2 2019 and Consumer Price Index for July are expected.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed a decrease against USD on Tuesday, having updated the record lows of March 14, 2017. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the instrument was still able to slightly correct, which was caused by the profit taking before the Fed meeting, at which the interest rate can be reduced by 0.25 or 0.50 points. Minor support for the pound on Wednesday is provided by data on Consumer Confidence in the UK. In July, according to the data from Gfk, the index rose from –13 to –11 points, while the forecast did not suggest changes in the indicator. During the day, investors expect the release of Nationwide Housing Price Index for July.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a moderate decline against USD on Tuesday, having updated local lows of June 19. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, caused by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed and the publication of a number of good macroeconomic data from Australia. Australia's Consumer Price Index in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, which was slightly better than market expectations (+0.5% QoQ and +1.5% YoY). In the past quarter the index showed an even more modest growth of +0.0% QoQ and +1.3% YoY.

    USD/JPY

    USD ended the session on Tuesday with a moderate decline against JPY, departing from its local highs of July 10. The correction of the instrument proceeded against the background of disappointing macroeconomic data from Japan on industrial production and the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change interest rates, confirming its previous intentions. The Bank of Japan has not announced any new stimulation measures for the national economy. During the Asian session on July 31, the pair is trading in both directions. Minor support to the yen is provided by the Housing Starts indicator in Japan. In June, it showed an increase of 0.3% YoY after a decline of 8.7% YoY last month. Analysts expected a decline of –3.4% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Tuesday, supported by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed for the first time in 10 years. Moreover, some experts believe that the Fed may decide to cut the rate by 0.50 points, since the economic situation is noticeably worsening, and earlier Donald Trump stated that “a small reduction in the rate will not be enough”. Additional support to prices on Tuesday was provided by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of July 26, the report reflected a decrease in stocks by 6.024 million barrels after a record decline of 10.961 million barrels for the previous period. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

  3. #833
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-01 08:57 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday updating record lows of May 2017. The instrument was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. According to preliminary estimates, euro area's GDP in Q2 2019 slowed down from +0.4% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which coincided with market expectations. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from +1.2% YoY to +1.1% YoY, which turned out to be better than the forecast. Preliminary data on consumer inflation were also disappointed. In July, the Core Consumer Price Index slowed down from +1.1% YoY to +0.9% YoY against the forecast of +1.0% YoY. With the opening of the US session and the publication of the Fed’s decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25 points, the instrument managed to partially recoup; however, during the Asian session on August 1, the market again has strong "bearish" sentiment.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, interrupting the development of a confident downward rally, which brought the instrument to record lows of March 2017. GBP was supported by the expectation of a decrease in the interest rate by the Fed, which was fully justified. The US regulator lowered the rate by 0.25 points, as expected by most experts, while already halting the balance reduction (previously this process was supposed to be completed in September). During the Asian session on August 1, the instrument is trading downwards, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. On Thursday, investors are focused on the Bank of England decision on interest rates and comments by the head of the British regulator Mark Carney. No changes in the monetary policy are expected from the Bank of England, since it is obvious that the regulator will take a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the next Brexit deadline.

    AUD/USD

    AUD fell significantly against USD on Wednesday, continuing to develop a confident downtrend since July 19. However, during yesterday's Asian session, the instrument showed moderate growth caused by the publication of strong statistics on consumer inflation. The Consumer Price Index in Q2 2019 rose by 0.6% QoQ after zero dynamics in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% QoQ. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from +1.3% to +1.6%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by Australia's Manufacturing PMI. In July, according to data from Commonwealth Bank, the index exceeded expectations of 51.4 points and amounted to 51.6 points. Additional support was provided by Chinese statistics. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 49.4 to 49.9 points, exceeding the forecast of 49.6 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed moderate growth against JPY on Wednesday, updating other local highs. The growth of the instrument was not impeded by the fact that the Fed cut interest rates, or by the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from the US. As expected, the regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25 points and announced the suspension of the balance reduction program from the beginning of August. Published data indicated a sharp decline in Chicago's PMI in July from 49.7 to 44.4 points with a forecast of 50.6 points. At the same time, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report in July reflected a steady increase of 156K jobs with an increase of 112K last month. Analysts expected a growth of 150K. On Friday, investors are awaiting the publication of the July report on the US labor market.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a decline on Wednesday, retreating from updated local highs of July 17. The decrease in the interest rate by the Fed by 0.25 points did not provide significant support to the instrument, since the market had already taken a similar outcome into account. At the same time, during the day, oil was supported by the API report published the day before and the EIA report released on Wednesday. A report from the Department of Energy indicated a decrease in US oil inventories by 8.496 million barrels after a decrease of 10.835 million barrels over the past period. Analysts expected a much more modest reduction of 2.588 million barrels. At the same time, the report also reflected an increase in oil production in the United States from 11.300 to 12.200 million barrels per day.

  4. #834
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-05 08:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed active growth against USD at the end of last trading week, correcting after a sharp decline on Wednesday and Thursday, which led to the updating of local lows of May 16, 2017. Strong data on retail sales in the euro area contributed to the development of corrective dynamics last Friday. The indicator grew by 1.1% MoM after the decline by 0.6% MoM a month earlier. In annual terms, sales growth accelerated from +1.0% YoY to +2.6% YoY, while analysts expected only +1.3% YoY. A more confident positive dynamics in the euro was hindered by the release of a moderately optimistic report on the US labor market, which, in particular, indicated an acceleration in Average Hourly Earnings in July from +3.1% YoY to +3.2% YoY. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a raise. At the beginning of the week, Investors are focused on statistics on business activity in Europe and the US.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed moderate growth against USD at the end of last trading week, slightly correcting after a powerful "bearish" rally, which brought the pound to record lows of January 2017. The growth of the instrument on Friday was of a technical nature, since the macroeconomic background did not provide significant support to the British currency, and the previous negative factors associated with Brexit only intensified as the deadline approached. The British Construction PMI published on Friday showed a modest increase in July from 43.1 to 45.3 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 46.0 points. The July US labor market report provided moderate support to the dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls met expectations of 164K jobs. Last month, the figure showed an increase of 193K. Average Hourly Earnings accelerated in July from +3.1% YoY to +3.2% YoY.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Friday. Macroeconomic statistics published in Australia provided moderate support for the instrument. The growth in retail sales in Australia in June accelerated from +0.1% MoM to +0.4% MoM with a forecast of +0.3% MoM. Australia's Producer Price Index in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.4% QoQ and 2.0% YoY, which was better than market expectations of +0.2% QoQ and +1.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a decrease. AiG Services Index went down from 52.2 to 43.9 points in June. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI fell in June from 52.6 to 52.3 points. The Composite Index over the same period increased from 51.8 to 52.1 points, which turned out to be better than average expert estimates.

    USD/JPY

    USD closed last week with a steady decline against JPY, updating local lows of the beginning of the year. Despite the publication of a moderately optimistic report on the US labor market, the dollar is lower than the yen amid a decline in investor interest in risk. The minutes of Bank of Japan meeting published on Friday also contributed to a moderate increase in the Japanese currency, since they did not explicitly indicate a resumption of monetary easing in the foreseeable future. During today's Asian session, USD is trading with a decrease. Even the appearance of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan does not impede the development of the "bearish" trend. Markit Services PMI in July decreased from 51.9 to 51.8 points with the forecast of the increase to 52.3 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics of trading at the end of last week, slightly correcting after a steady decline the day before. The development of the "bearish" trend for the instrument was provoked by the threats of Donald Trump to introduce duties on the remaining Chinese imports. The increase is expected to be implemented in stages, and the first increase of 10% may take place on September 1, if the parties do not come to a consensus. Moderate support for the instrument on Friday was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. For the reporting week, the number of oil rigs decreased from 776 to 770 units.

  5. #835
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-06 08:47 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR rose against USD on Monday, updating local highs of July 23. EUR was supported by the actions of the US administration, which went on softening its position in the trade dispute with the EU. In particular, the parties managed to reach an agreement on increasing the volume of imported meat from the US to the EU countries. At the same time, trade relations between the US and China continue to deteriorate. Following the decision of Donald Trump to introduce an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods worth USD 300 billion, China promised to respond with tit-for-tat measures. In the meantime, the market can observe a sharp depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, which Donald Trump commented on, calling the actions of the Chinese authorities a "serious violation".

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a slight increase against the US dollar on Monday. British Markit Services PMI supported GBP moderately. According to July data, the index rose from 50.2 to 51.4 points, which turned out to be better than neutral forecasts. A more confident growth of the instrument was hindered by increasing market tension as the Brexit date approached and the trade relations between the USA and China worsened. During today's Asian session, GBP is also trading higher, based on the publication of moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics. BRC Retail Sales Monitor in July showed an increase of 0.1% YoY after declining by 1.6% YoY last month.

    AUD/USD

    AUD closed Monday with a steady decline against USD, reacting to another aggravation of trade relations between the US and China, which threatens to further slow down the global economy. The development of the "bearish" dynamics in the instrument was also facilitated by macroeconomic statistics. AiG Services Index in Australia went down from 52.2 to 43.9 points in June. Chinese Caixin Services PMI for the same period retreated from 52.0 to 51.6 points with a forecast of 51.9 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with an increase. The focus of investors is on the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the Australian regulator kept the interest rate unchanged at 1%, maintaining the same rhetoric. The RBA expects moderate growth in Australia's economy at 2.50–2.75% in 2019 and 2020. According to the regulator, inflation will return to the target level of 2% by 2020.

    USD/JPY

    USD continued to decline against JPY at the beginning of the new trading week, updating local lows from the beginning of the year. During today's Asian session, the instrument shows sharp growth, recovering to the levels of last Friday. The market is reacting violently to the aggravation of trade relations between the United States and China, which threatens a new round of deceleration of the global economy. In addition, China began to actively devalue the national currency in order to mitigate the damage from new import duties. Moderate support for the yen on Tuesday is provided by macroeconomic statistics published in Japan. Household Spending in June grew by 2.7% YoY after growth by 4.0% YoY last month. Analysts expected an increase of +1.3% YoY. Average Cash Earnings in June showed an increase of 0.4% YoY after a decline of 0.5% YoY in May. The indicator was better than expected –0.8% YoY.

    Oil

    On Monday, oil prices fell, reacting to the aggravation of the US-China trade conflict: on Friday, Donald Trump threatened to introduce 10% duty on the remaining Chinese imports in the amount of USD 300 billion from September 1. The PRC said that in this case it would go for retaliatory measures but for now, Beijing is actively depreciating the national currency in order to mitigate the potential damage from new restrictions. In addition to the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and a decrease in oil demand, an aggravation of the conflict could threaten the resumption of imports of Iranian “black gold” from China, bypassing US sanctions. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an API report on oil reserves for the week of August 2. The previous report reflected a decrease in reserves of 6.024 million barrels.

  6. #836
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-07 08:34 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Tuesday. The instrument maintained an upward trend only at the opening of the afternoon session and showed a slight increase at the beginning of the American trading session. The technical factors contributed to a reduction in the pair, as the news background did not change much. As before, the market is widely discussing the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, which flows into a full-fledged currency war. The Chinese yuan has fallen against the dollar to its lowest level since 2008, which will significantly weaken the negative effect of Washington's introduction of new import duties from September 1. In addition, the market expects a possible reduction in the interest rate by the Fed in September. Macroeconomic statistics from Germany published on Tuesday did not support EUR. Factory Orders in June increased significantly by 2.5% MoM after the decline by 2.0% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of +0.5% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator decreased by 3.6% YoY, which is much better than the decrease by 8.4% YoY last month.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed a slight increase against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of corrective dynamics, formed on August 2. The instrument is moderately supported by exacerbation of trade relations between the US and China, which could lead to currency confrontation and force the US regulator to ease monetary policy again. In turn, investors are concerned about the approach of another deadline on Brexit, as the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has not yet made any progress in negotiations with the EU. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Halifax House Price Index.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar is showing a steady decline against the US currency during the Asian session on August 7, updating record lows of 2009. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument is facilitated by the aggravation of trade relations between the USA and China, as well as hints of a new currency confrontation between the countries. Additional pressure on the position of the pair is provided by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the fact of a sharp decrease in the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from 1.50 to 1.00%. Commenting on the decision in the follow-up statement, the New Zealand regulator pointed to maintaining inflation below 2%, slowing GDP growth, weak growth in the employment market and exacerbating the risks of a slowdown in the global economy.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed strong growth against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, but again returned to decline during today's Asian session. Investors react rather actively to the aggravation of trade relations between the US and China and fear the start of a currency confrontation amid a significant weakening of the Chinese yuan against the dollar. At the same time, market activity remains quite high, and interest in risk is gradually weakening. Macroeconomic statistics published in Japan yesterday turned out to be moderately optimistic. Average Cash Earnings in June increased by 0.4% YoY after a decline by 0.5% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.8% YoY. Household Spending in June grew by 2.7% YoY after growth by 4.0% YoY last month. Experts expected a slowdown to +1.3% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a decline on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day there was an upward trend caused by a technical correction after a steady decline last week. Pressure on quotes is still exerted by the aggravation of trade relations between the USA and China, which means a further weakening of global demand for "black gold". Support for the prices was provided by Iran’s statements, which threatened to block the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz if it could not trade its own oil. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report on Tuesday also provided moderate support for the quotes. Over the week as of August 2, US inventories decreased by 3.400 million barrels after a decrease of 6.024 million barrels in the previous period.

  7. #837
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-08 08:41 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Wednesday. Powerful pressure on the instrument was exerted by macroeconomic statistics published in Germany. Industrial production in June showed a decrease of 1.5% MoM after an increase of 0.3% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the decline of 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the decrease in the indicator reached –5.2% YoY after –3.7% YoY in May. Experts counted on improving dynamics and reducing production by only 1.8% YoY. USD, in turn, is under pressure from the worsening trade relations between the US and China. The day before, China said it would refuse to purchase American agricultural equipment, and would also consider introducing additional reciprocal import duties. In addition, Donald Trump puts pressure on the Fed and literally demands to continue lowering interest rates.

    GBP/USD

    GBP fell slightly against USD on Wednesday, reacting to weak statistics from the UK. Halifax Housing price Index in July showed a decrease of 0.2% MoM after a decrease of 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts counted on the appearance of positive dynamics (+0.3% MoM). There were few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the USA yesterday, so investors generally adhered to the previous drivers. During the Asian session on August 8, GBP shows corrective growth, despite the continued negative macroeconomic background. RICS House Price Balance in July collapsed by 9% after falling by 1% last month.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday. The instrument updated record lows at the opening of the session, responding to the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia and rather unexpected decision of the RBNZ to lower the rate immediately by 0.50 points. Then, with the opening of European sites, AUD managed to correct, and a further weakening of USD led to the restoration of the pair to the opening levels. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a raise. The instrument is supported by good macroeconomic statistics from China, which indicated an increase in exports and a slower decrease in the trade surplus. In July, China's surplus amounted to 45.06B dollars against 50.98B last month. Analysts had expected a decline to 40.00B.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar maintains an uncertain downward trend against the Japanese yen, still located near local lows since the beginning of the year. The yen is in demand amid growing market turmoil triggered by a sharp deterioration in trade relations between the US and China. In addition, the market fears new steps from the Fed aimed at easing monetary policy, especially given the constant pressure on the regulator from Donald Trump. The Bank of Japan, in turn, took a wait-and-see approach. According to the latest protocols, the Japanese regulator notes the continued upward momentum for inflation and has not yet considered the possibility of additional stimulus at the next meetings. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions, reacting to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks for the week as of August 2 reduced by JPY 339.9B. Foreign Bonds Buying, in turn, increased by JPY 286.2B.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a sharp decline on Wednesday, reaching new seven-month lows against a backdrop of continued deterioration in US-China trade relations. Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted on Wednesday by a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. For a week as of August 2, oil stocks in US warehouses unexpectedly increased by 2.385M barrels, after a decrease of 8.496M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –2.845M barrels. US refining capacity utilization also rose by 3.4% to 96.4%, following an increase in production from 12.200M to 12.300M barrels per day.

  8. #838
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-08-09 08:23 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Thursday. Before the opening of the American session, the euro was trading upwards, receiving support from good statistics from China. In addition, investors continue to evaluate the prospects for a further reduction in the interest rate by the Fed amid a sharp deterioration in US-China trade relations and the CNY devaluation. Chinese data indicated an increase in exports of 3.3% YoY in July after a decline of 1.3% YoY in June. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –2.0% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 5.6% YoY after a decrease of 7.3% YoY. All this led to a slower decrease in the surplus of the trade balance from 50.98 to 45.06 billion dollars with a forecast of a decrease to 40.00 billion.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar on Thursday. In the absence of significant macroeconomic releases, investors continued to take a lead from previous factors. The main "bearish" driver for the instrument remains the prospect of a "tough" Brexit, which could cause significant harm to the UK economy. Already, investors fear a sharp decline in UK trade with EU countries, which could lead to food shortages in the country. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a slight growth. The focus of investors is on a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, a preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the Q2 2019 is expected to be released.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar rose significantly against the US currency on Thursday, continuing the development of the correctional impulse formed the day before. The instrument was supported by Chinese trade statistics, which, despite the continuing tensions between the US and China, showed an increase in July. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the speech of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe and the comments of the Australian regulator on monetary policy. No concrete hints were expected from Lowe's speech on further easing of monetary policy, so the reaction of the market to it was very restrained. The head of the RBA noted the insufficiently rapid increase in inflation in the country, as well as the growth of external economic risks, primarily due to the deterioration of trade relations between China and the United States.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues a moderate decline against the Japanese yen, returning to local lows, updated on August 7. The development of the "bearish" trend is facilitated by the growth of the Japanese currency against the backdrop of worsening trade relations between the US and China and a decline in interest in risk. During today's Asian session, Japanese macroeconomic statistics provides little support for the yen. According to preliminary estimates, Japan's GDP in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.4% QoQ after an increase of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. Investors had expected a slowdown to +0.1% QoQ. Annual GDP data reflected a slowdown from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which also turned out to be better than market expectations.

    Oil

    Oil quotes rose slightly on Thursday, receiving support from the expectation of a decrease in production volumes amid a prolonged decline in prices. In addition, the instrument was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from China, which signals a slight improvement in global demand, despite growing pressure from the US. The market also reacted positively to statements by Saudi Arabia, which, in addition to the current OPEC+ agreement, calls on all oil exporters to discuss an additional reduction in oil prices in order to maintain a balance of supply and demand in the market. Today, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report.

  9. #839
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Bitcoin: technical analysis
    2019-08-12 09:10 (GMT+2) Bitcoin
    Current trend

    Last week, the price of Bitcoin repeatedly tested the level of 12000.00 but failed to consolidate above it and was corrected to the level of 11250.00 (Murrey [5/8]). Consolidation below it will let the correction to develop to the levels of 10625.00 (the middle line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [2/8] H4) and 10000.00 (Murrey [4/8]). Otherwise, the price may grow to the levels of 12500.00 (Murrey [6/8]) and 13125.00 (Murrey [5/8] H4).

    Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the relevance of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards but approaches the oversold zone, which does not exclude a limited correction. In general, in the near future, the instrument may resume its growth from current levels or the middle line of Bollinger Bands (10625.00).

    Support and resistance

    Resistance levels: 12000.00, 12500.00, 13125.00, 13750.00.
    Support levels: 11250.00, 10625.00, 10000.00.

    Trading tips

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 11500.00 or 10625.00 with the targets at 12500.00, 13125.00 and stop loss 10950.00 and 10300.00, respectively.
    Short positions can be opened below the level of 10625.00 with the targets at 10000.00, 9375.00 and stop loss 11000.00.

    Implementation period: 4–5 days.

  10. #840
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    XAU/USD: technical analysis
    2019-08-13 10:06 (GMT+2) Gold
    XAU/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is about to test its strong resistance region.

    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is approaching its strong resistance.

    Key levels

    Support levels: 1468.0 (local lows), 1440.0 (June highs), 1399.0 (local lows).
    Resistance levels: 1532.0 (September 2011 lows), 1560.0 (March 2013 lows), 1584.0 (August 2012 lows).

    Trading tips

    The price is about to test its strong resistance near 1532.0. There is a chance of a short-term downward correction.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1532.0 with targets at 1560.0, 1584.0 and stop-loss at 1510.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1399.0 with the target at 1365.0 and stop-loss at 1412.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

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