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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; LiteForex аналитика. Утренний обзор рынка EUR/USD The European currency is relatively stable against the US dollar during trading at the ...

          
   
  1. #731
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    LiteForex аналитика. Утренний обзор рынка

    EUR/USD

    The European currency is relatively stable against the US dollar during trading at the Asian session on February 8. Investors take profits after a confident euro rally throughout the current trading week.

    The US currency continues to be in demand among investors, despite the publication of poor macroeconomic data. In addition, the market is actively discussing possible postponing of the planned meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping from February to the end of March. In general, optimism around the possible completion of the US-Chinese trade conflict has been declining recently, and the White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the countries are still far from concluding a deal.

    European macroeconomic releases are often weak. The ECB economic bulletin, which had a significant pressure on the euro position, was published the day before. The document notes that growing external negative factors lead to an increase in risks for the European economy. Economic indicators show negative dynamics, therefore, in the near future, the regulator expects a slowdown in economic growth. For 2019, the growth forecast was revised from the previous +1.9% to +1.3%.

    GBP/USD

    The GBP/USD pair is trading in both directions during the Asian session on February 8. The British currency reacted quite actively to the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England the day before, but managed to show a slight increase in the afternoon session, having corrected after a steady decline throughout the week.

    As expected, the Bank of England retained its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, and the decision was unanimous. The regulator also did not change other parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the volume of the bond purchase program at 435B pounds. At the same time, the Bank of England lowered forecasts for economic growth for the current year from 1.7% to 1.2%, noting a significant increase in uncertainty, primarily due to Brexit.

    The market is waiting for the outcome of negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU leaders on additional amendments to the Brexit agreement on the Irish border.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar shows a negative trend during the Asian session on February 8, approaching strong support at the level of 0.7000. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes. The regulator has revised downward its own forecasts for economic growth for 2019-2020. At the end of this year, the RBA expects Australian economy to grow by 2.75% YoY and does not expect a change in this indicator by 2020.

    The regulator also notes a significant reduction in inflation risks. By June 2019, the Consumer Price Index may slow down to +1.25% from the current +1.8%, after which it will gradually recover and reach target level of 2% closer to mid-2020.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues to trade lower against the Japanese yen, but instrument activity remains quite low. Statistics from Japan published during the Asian session on February 8 did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the pair.

    Household Spending in Japan rose by 0.1% YoY in December after declining by 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts had expected a more active growth of 0.8% YoY. Average Cash Earnings indicator, which shows the average pre-tax income of an employee, increased by 1.8% YoY, having accelerated by 0.1% since last month.

    Gold

    Gold prices are consolidating after an attempt to reduce this week. The day before, prices showed an increase, departing from local lows amid increased uncertainty around the trade conflict between the PRC and the US and the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data. In particular, the market reacted negatively to the slowdown in the German economy and the release of updated forecasts from the ECB.

  2. #732
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD

    The European currency shows ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian session on February 11, still under pressure after a confident "bearish" rally last week. At the end of the week, the pair did not show the expected pullback, because the market received information that was able to support the US currency.

    The Administration of US President Donald Trump confirmed his intention to hold official talks with China and announced a meeting in Beijing on February 14-15. Many experts believe that even if the negotiations do not end with the signing of a final agreement, the current import prices will remain at the same levels.

    On Monday, the market does not expect the release of a large amount of interesting macroeconomic data from the euro area and the United States. Investors will focus on statistics on consumer inflation from Switzerland, Norway and Denmark. With the opening of the American session, preliminary data on the dynamics of costs per labor unit for the Q4 2018 will come to the market.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound is trading in both directions, remaining in the area of 1.2900. At the end of the last trading week, the instrument managed to show a "bullish" correction, but no significant growth occurred. During the Asian session on February 11, the trading activity of the British currency remains rather low, as investors expect new drivers to appear in the market.

    Today, the publication of interesting statistics from the UK is expected. The focus will be on preliminary data on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q4 2018. The indicators are expected to decrease: +0.3% QoQ and +1.4% YoY against the previous +0.6% QoQ and +1.5% YoY. Investors will also be interested in December statistics on manufacturing production. Here, analysts expect improvements in dynamics: +0.2% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in November.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during the Asian session on February 11, corrected after a slurred decline at the end of last week. More confident correction of the Australian currency is hampered by the strengthening of the US dollar, which received additional support last Friday, after the administration of Donald Trump announced a meeting with the leaders of the PRC in Beijing.

    On Monday, interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia is not expected, so investors will continue to rely mainly on data from the United States. In the meantime, moderate support for AUD is provided by published data from China. In particular, the rate of new loans issued in January rose sharply from 1080 to 2970 billion yuan.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar shows growth during the Asian session on February 11, correcting after the "bearish" end of the week. The instrument is supported by positive news around the US-PRC trade conflict. As it became known at the end of last week, the final meeting of the heads of the United States and China will be held in Beijing on February 14-15.

    The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument contributes to the fact that the markets of Japan are closed on Monday due to the celebration of the National Foundation Day.

    Oil

    Oil quotes continue to trade in both directions, being under pressure from the fairly strong position of the US currency in the market. Previously, an additional growth factor was the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade conflict, especially after Donald Trump said on Thursday that he did not intend to meet with Xi Jinping before the deadlines for concluding a deal. However, on Friday Trump's administration announced a meeting of heads of the two states in Beijing on February 14-15.

    Additional support for prices is provided by OPEC actions and US sanctions against Venezuela. Last week it became known that in January Saudi Arabia reduced oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day. New sanctions against Venezuela could reduce the total export volume by another 300-500 thousand barrels per day.

  3. #733
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD

    The European currency continues to remain under pressure, updating local lows against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, at the Asian session on February 12, the instrument once again attempts correction. Investors are quite optimistic about the dollar against the background of the emerging progress on the issue of the US-China trade conflict. In turn, the euro is under pressure from disappointing macroeconomic statistics, reflecting a significant slowdown in the region’s major economies, in particular Germany. In addition, the market remains in suspense before Brexit, which will undoubtedly affect the economic situation. Today, investors will focus on speeches by the heads of the German Federal Bank, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound shows sluggish corrective growth at today's Asian session, correcting after a significant decline in the beginning of the week, which led to an update of the local lows of January 21. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics in the instrument, in addition to a fairly strong position of the dollar in the market, was the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in December decreased by 0.5% MoM and 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 0.3% MoM and 1.3% YoY last month. The GDP in December decreased by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.2% in November. In quarterly terms, the growth rate of the economy fell sharply from +0.6% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which, however, coincided with the expectations of analysts.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of 4 January. The growth of AUD takes place against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and is largely technical in nature. NAB Business Confidence rose from 3 to 4 points in January. NAB Business Survey jumped from 2 to 7 points over the same period, while the forecast was 4 points. At the same time, the Home Loans indicator reflected a decline in loans issued in December by 6.1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in November. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to strengthen, but counted on only –2.0% MoM decline.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of December 28, 2018. The markets of Japan were closed on Monday due to a national holiday, so the dynamics of the instrument was subject to external factors. During the Asian session on February 12, investors are awaiting the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Among it, Tertiary Industry Activity Index in January and a preliminary estimate of Machine Tool Orders in January can be highlighted.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a negative trend at the beginning of the week, but managed to correct closer to the end of the afternoon session on February 11. Quotes are falling due to the growth of drilling activity in the United States, as was recorded in the Baker Hughes report at the end of the last trading week. Additional pressure comes from the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China, despite the preliminary agreements reached on the date of commencement of the official meeting of heads of the two states. If negotiations fail, the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1. Similar responses will be taken by China, which will further complicate the situation. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for February 8. The previous report reflected the growth of stocks by 2.514 million barrels.

  4. #734
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD

    In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair rose to the area of 1.1340 (+0.11%). The US currency is weakening, despite the positive comments by US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, made the day before. Trump said he was ready to postpone the expiration of the trade truce from March 2, if there is a serious chance to sign a trade deal. Speaking in Mississippi on Tuesday, Powell noted that the US economy looks strong, resulting in low unemployment and good economic growth. However, the regulator will continue to look for ways to combat poverty.

    During the day the publication of important statistical data is expected. The euro area's December statistics on the volume of industrial production promises to be weak. On an annualized basis, production could be reduced for the second month in a row, by another 3.2%. On a monthly basis, a reduction of 0.4% is possible. In the United States, January inflation data will be released. On an annualized basis, the Consumer Price Index may drop significantly from 1.9% to 1.5%, and the Core Consumer Price Index can decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%. Current forecasts do not contribute to the strengthening of neither the dollar nor the euro.

    GBP/USD

    The pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2920 (+0.24%). Investors were not scared by the pessimistic comments of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Speaking on Tuesday, he called on the British parliament to break the impasse over Brexit, warning that withdrawing from the EU without a deal would be an economic shock for the UK, which is especially dangerous against the backdrop of China’s recession and world trade tensions. Currently, investors are curtailing activity, waiting for the resolution of the situation. Carney noted that a 3% decline in the Chinese economy will lead to a reduction in world GDP by 1%, and the introduction of the US additional 10% export tariffs on leading trading partners could reduce world production by 1%.

    During the day, the market is waiting for the publication of the January data on inflation in the UK. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index on an annualized basis will continue to decline and for the first time since January 2017 it will fall below the target level, reaching 1.9%. The Core Consumer Price Index can remain at the same level of 1.9%. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

    AUD/USD

    In the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the area of 0.7132 (+0.55%) against the background of the positive February data on the Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia. After a decrease by 4.7% in January, the index rose by 4.3% in February, which is encouraging investors. However, the overall situation with the Australian economy remains alarming, helped by the weakening of the Australian construction market and world trade tensions.

    USD/JPY

    Quotes of the USD/JPY pair rose in the Asian session, reaching 110.60 (+0.14%). As there is a lack of key economic releases in Japan, the movement of JPY is of technical nature. Investors are waiting for the results of a new round of trade negotiations between the PRC and the United States, held in Beijing.

    Gold

    Quotes of gold in the Asian session are corrected upwards after a significant fall on Tuesday. Currently, the price has reached the level of 1314.00 (+0.23%) and almost won back the positions lost the day before.

  5. #735
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD

    During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD is corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. The price has reached the level of 1.1282 (gaining 0.24%). Yesterday investors' hopes raised amid the information about the likely meeting of the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping with the leaders of the American trade delegation Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer since both parties can manage to conclude a deal before the end of the truce on March 2. The latest data on inflation in the United States were also positive. In January, the consumer price index fell less than expected by the market and amounted to 1.6%. Core CPI remained at 2.2%.

    During the day, the market awaits the publication of data on the Eurozone GDP in 4Q2018. The indicator is expected to remain at 0.2% QoQ and at 1.2% YoY. In the United States, statistics on sales will be published. According to forecasts, the indicator may reduce from 0.2% to 0.1%, which may cause pressure on USD.

    GBP/USD

    During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD was rising after a significant decline on Wednesday. Quotes have reached the level of 1.2870 (gaining 0.22%). Investors are waiting for the situation around Brexit to develop. Yesterday, there was the information that the European Commission may agree to postpone the withdrawal of Britain from the EU from March 29 this year. However, later, Prime Minister Theresa May said in the Parliament that she intends to complete Brexit by the due date. Today, a new debate on the further steps of the UK regarding the deal with the EU should be held in the House of Commons.

    AUD/USD

    The pair AUD/USD was growing at the Asian session and has now reached the level of 0.7123 (adding 0.29%). Investors are hoping for a possible conclusion of the US-China trade deal, the likelihood of which is indicated by the upcoming meeting of PRC President Xi Jinping and the American representatives Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer. In the evening, the market is waiting for the speech of the assistant to the head of the RBA, Christopher Kent, with the report "Financial Conditions and the Australian Dollar", which may contain hints on the regulator's further policy.

    USD/JPY

    The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to the level of 110.85 was replaced by growth and now the instrument is at 111.10. Statistics released today showed Japanese GDP growth in 4Q2018 by 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which can be considered a good result after the economic contraction in Q3. GDP growth was provided by an increase in capital expenditures of companies by 2.4%. However, further economic growth may be hindered by a new sales tax, which the Japanese government is going to impose this year.

    Gold

    During the Asian session, gold quotes are corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. Now, the price is at the level of 1309.00 (having added 0.31%).

  6. #736
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    EUR/USD

    During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was correcting down after Thursday growth. Currently, the price is at the level of 1.1282, having lost 0.1%. Yesterday, the dollar was pressured by a number of negative factors. Statistics on US retail sales for December was weak. The sales volume unexpectedly fell by 1.2%, and it was even 3.9% in the e-commerce sector. This decline was the biggest in 9 years, it could put pressure on GDP. Fed spokeswoman Lael Brainard said she was concerned about the state of the American economy, as the risks to its growth are increasing. But most of all, the market was alarmed by information that President Donald Trump could sign a draft security agreement between Democrats and Republicans, while simultaneously imposing a state of emergency in several states. Thus, the government will not be closed, but the administration will be able to finance the border wall, bypassing Congress.

    During the day, data on retail sales in the United States will be published. In December, the figure may remain at 0.2%.

    GBP/USD

    During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD traded within the lateral range of 1280.00-1.2788. Yesterday, the pound was pressured due to another defeat of Teresa May in parliament. Deputies of the House of Commons rejected a proposal that would confirm the government’s mandate for further negotiations on Brexit. 258 voted for the proposal, and 303 parliamentarians opposed it. Some representatives of the Conservative Party abstained, which predetermined the defeat of May. This vote did not have legal force, but it showed the instability of positions and raised doubts that the Prime Minister would be able to persuade the parliament to approve the deal with the EU.

    During the day, data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published. In January, the figure may grow by 0.2%, and YoY, from 3.0% to 3.4%. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to GBP.

    AUD/USD

    During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD had an ambiguous dynamic. The decline to 0.7078 was replaced by a corrective growth, as a result of which part of the losses was won back. Now the instrument is at the level of 0.7090, having lost about 0.15%. AUD is pressured by weak Chinese inflation data. In January, the consumer price index in China slowed growth and amounted to 1.7%. In Melbourne, RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, noted that one should not be surprised at some weakening of AUD in view of a reduction in global economic activity and forecasts of deterioration of trade in Australia itself.

    USD/JPY

    The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to 110.25 was replaced by growth to the level of 110.36. As a result, the pair lost 0.1%. JPY is generally pressured by weak data on the volume of industrial production in Japan. In December, it declined for the second consecutive month, this time by 0.1%.

    Gold

    During the Asian session, quotes of gold rose, reaching 1314.00 and adding about 0.6%.

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