Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday dynamics in the USD/CAD pair was substantially influenced by the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting results. The US Dollar fell against the Canadian Dollar after the regulator announced its decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. A fall in the pair continued despite data from the US Energy Information Administration, which showed a drop of 5 million barrels in US crude stockpiles. The price then reversed when Stephen Poloz, Bank of Canada Governor, said that further monetary policy easing was discussed policymakers.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is about to turn up while the price range is widening. MACD is growing and keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic has entered the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3154, 1.3136, 1.3116, 1.3103, 1.3059, 1.3037.
Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3191, 1.3211, 1.3237, 1.3260.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level 1.3180 with the target at 1.3240 and stop-loss at 1.3135. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level 1.3155 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3175. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD^ general analysis

Current trend

A double bottom pattern with the support level at 1.0859 has been formed on the hourly chart. The Euro came under pressure when the ECB decided to hold its key interest rates and quantitative easing programme steady. ECB President Mario Draghi said that there had been no discussion regarding the wind-down of the programme in the nearest future.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Markit US Manufacturing PMI for October.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.0859.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.0911.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0911 with the target at 1.0755 and stop-loss at 1.0955.

XAU/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The price of gold remains in a sideway range. During yesterday’s session, the price of gold fell to the level of 1260.38 but buyers managed to hold the important level.

According to experts, god could gain 15% towards the end of the year as markets have already priced in an upcoming interest rate hike in the US. The pace of monetary policy tightening will remain slow which will smooth the pressure from the strengthening Dollar.
This week investors are waiting for data on the US GDP that could give them clues about the state of the American economy and readiness of the Fed to increase interest rate in December.

Support and resistance

The instrument is still trading above the strong support level at 1260.00. In case of a price consolidation above the level of 1274.00, there is a high chance of a growth continuation towards next resistance levels.
On the 4-hour chart, the indicators do not give clear trading signals. Stochastic line are directed down having left the overbought zone. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 1260.00, 1250.00, 1242.00.
Resistance levels: 1274.00, 1285.15, 1300.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1275.00 with the target at 1285.00 and stop-loss at 1270.00.
Short positons can be opened from the level of 1259.00 with targets at 1250.00, 1242.00 and stop-loss at 1265.00.

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Ahead of the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s appearance, the pair came under pressure when Philip Hammond, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, suggested extension of the BoE’s QE program. The pair, however, then recovered almost all it losses amid the speech of the head of the British regulator. Mark Carney expressed concerns over the depreciation of the national currency. A “fairly substantial” fall in the Pound will be taken into account when deciding on interest rates, he said.

Tomorrow particular attention needs to be paid to data on UK’s third-quarter GDP figures. Experts suggest that Britain’s economic growth slowed down from 0.7% to 0.3% that could pressure the Pound. In the afternoon, the American currency, on its part, could gain support amid the publication of strong data on orders for durable goods in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price has not managed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.2210. Bollinger Bands is moving down while the price range has been showing almost no changes. MACD histogram remains in the region of the zero line. Stochastic is approaching the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2184, 1.2161, 1.2125, 1.2082.
Resistance levels: 1.2210, 1.2244, 1.2259, 1.2283, 1.2310, 1.2330.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2190 with the target at 1.2115 and stop-loss at 1.2230. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2250 with the target at 1.2330 and stop-loss at 1.2230. Validity – 2-4 days.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Euro continues to strengthen slightly against the US dollar. To date, the pair is trading near the resistance level 1.0930, if the level is broken, the next target will be 1.0945. Today, a rise in volatility may occur with the opening of the US market, when unemployment claims and orders for durable goods will be published. According to preliminary estimates, the first indicator will drop to 255 thousand, while the second one will increase by 0.1%.
If the data come out better than the forecast, then we should expect the growth of the US currency as good statistics will be the signal for the Fed to increase the interest rate. According to preliminary estimates, the probability of changes in monetary policy at the November meeting does not exceed 50%.

Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is 1.0930.
The level of support is 1.0911.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at level of 1.0930 with stop-losses around 1.0911 and targets at 1.0945.

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

The US Dollar continues strengthening against all major rivals amid expectations of market participants of an interest rate hike by the Fed in the nearest future. Today, after the publication of positive data on the Producer Price Index in Australia, the pair rose but did not manage to consolidate above a strong resistance at 0.7600 and resumed its fall.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US GDP for the third quarter of the year. According to the forecasts of economists, on a year-to-year basis the index will show a 2.5% growth. At the same time, weak data might significantly pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading at the lower line of Bollinger Bands while bands are directed horizontally and the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is about to leave the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7137, 0.7565, 0.7556, 0.7544, 0.7534.
Resistance levels: 0.7597, 0.7607, 0.7622, 0.7643, 0.7652, 0.7668, 0.7679.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7560 with the target at 0.7530 and stop-loss at 0.7576. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7575 with target at 0.7610, 0.7630 and stop-loss at 0.7555. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Friday the Euro strengthened substantially against the American currency despite strong data on the US economic growth in the third quarter. The US Dollar came under pressure when it became known that the FBI decided to renew its probe of the US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a personal email server.

Today data on the eurozone GDP and consumer prices came out in line with forecasts and had almost no influence on dynamics in the pair.

This week, particular attention needs to be paid to the Fed’s decision on the interest rate, which is announced on Wednesday. Experts suggest that the regulator would keep the rate unchanged at 0.5% this time, but recent favorable macroeconomic statistics have strengthened expectations of monetary policy tightening.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the strong resistance level of 1.0970. Bollinger Bands is directed up while the price range has widened. MACD remains in the positive zone; its volumes are growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has left the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.0936, 1.0924, 1.0913, 1.0900, 1.0883, 1.0870, 1.0859.
Resistance levels: 1.0955, 1.0969, 1.0978, 1.0987, 1.1001.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0940 with targets at 1.0900, 1.0890 and stop-loss at 1.0955. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0960 with the target at 1.0985 and stop-loss at 1.0945. Validity – 1-2 days.

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair GBP/USD continues to move in a sideways channel of 1.2150-1.2250. In recent days the tool has reached the upper border of the channel, but by the morning of November 1st growth slowed down, and soon we can expect the correction of the upward movement.
The main event in the economic calendar today is the news from the US at 17:00 (GMT+2). Experts predict a rise in the acceleration index of inflation to 52 points, and the growth in index of business activity in the manufacturing sector to 51.7 points. These data are positive for the US economy and will most probably strengthen the US currency.

Support and resistance
On the four-hour chart the price is at the upper line of Bollinger bands, the bands themselves begin to expand. In this case, the correction to the middle line of the indicator is most likely, but the continuation of the uptrend is also possible.
Resistance levels: 1.2250, 1.2320, 1.2350, 1.2400, 1.2450.
Support levels: 1.2210, 1.2200, 1.2190, 1.2135, 1.2100.

Trading tips
It is recommended to open long positions at the current price with the target at the level of 1.2200 and a stop-loss at 1.2280. BUY STOP orders should be placed at the level of 1.2280 with the aim of 1.2320 and stop-loss of 1.2250.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The price of gold continues growing slightly. The precious metal gained support after the recent poll found that Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in the US presidential race. A Trump victory would mean a weaker dollar that is aimed at increasing the competitiveness of US goods at the global market.
The Fed announces its decision on the interest rate today and is widely expected to keep it unchanged due to the proximity to the presidential election. However, it should be noted that the US economy was showing strength, thus, monetary policy tightening could follow in the near future.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1283.89.
The nearest resistance level is at 1307.60.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1283.89 and stop-loss at 1307.60.

XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart the pair is testing the support level of 1292.00. The indicator "Bollinger Bands" is moving sideways, while the price range significantly expanded, indicating a continuation of the current trend. Histogram MACD is near zero line, its volumes start to grow, forming a weak buy signal. Stochastic is approaching to the border of the overbought area.

XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. Indicator’s lines are moving upwards, while the price range has increased, pointing to the preservation of the current trend. The MACD histogram is close to its peak in the positive zone, its volumes continue to grow, maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic is close to the oversold area.

Key levels
Support levels: 1241.11, 1245.96, 1256.80, 12.6181, 1267.31, 1271.84, 1282.68, 1288.21.
Resistance Levels: 1296.51, 1303.20, 1308.02, 1313.91, 1318.99, 1328.36.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1300.00 with the targets at 1308.00, 1311.20 and stop loss at the level of 1293.00. Implementation period – 1 day.
Short positions should be opened at the current price with the targets of 1286.50, 1278.70 and stop loss at the level of 1296.55. Implementation period – 1-2 days.