Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

YM: technical analysis

YM, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument slowed down its growth, which had been developing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price range of the indicator remains wide. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are gradually growing and keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic has left the overbought zone with a sell signal.

YM, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading along the meddle line of Bollinger Bands within a narrow price range. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are gradually falling and forming a sell signal. Stochastic turned up in the neutral zone.

Key levels

Support levels: 18802.3, 18645.3, 18439.9, 18319.0, 18059.3, 17884.1, 17654.5, 17479.3.
Resistance levels: 18965.5.

Trading tips

According to the indicators, long positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 18892.0 with the target at 18965.5 and stop-loss at 18850.0. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 18800.0 with the target at 18650.0 and stop-loss at 18850.0. Validity – 1-3 days.

FDAX: general analysis

Current trend

Germany’s DAX is trading slightly up. The European stock markets came under pressure after Mario Draghi, ECB President, said that inflation remained far from the target level and eurozone’s economy was teetering on the edge of deflation. The regulator continues keeping an eye on the situation and can provide additional stimulus if the need arises. It should also be noted that news about Volkswagen’s plans to cut 30,000 jobs has had a negative impact on the German index.

Today amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, no high volatility is expected. Attention needs to be paid to data on consumer confidence in the eurozone, due at 5:00 pm (GMT+2). However, preliminary estimate for November is unlikely to have any strong influence on the market.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 10648.6.
The nearest resistance level is at 10748.4.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 10648.6 with the target at 10582.0 and stop-loss at 10748.4.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

On Tuesday the USD/CAD pair was strengthening amid favorable macroeconomic data from the US. In particular, existing home sales grew 2% in October that was substantially better than economists had expected. In Canada, retail sales, excluding automobiles, were flat in September against expectations for a 0.5% increase suggesting a decline in consumer confidence.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on durable goods orders and jobless claims in the US. Moreover, the EIA releases its crude inventory change report that is likely to result in higher market volatility. The US Dollar can come under pressure as the data is expected to show a drawdown of 0.250 million barrels.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling towards the lower line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are gradually falling. Stochastic is turning down at the border of the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.3415, 1.3385, 1.3360, 1.3325, 1.3295, 1.3265.
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3515, 1.3560, 1.3585.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3415 with the target at 1.3360 and stop-loss at 1.3445.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3470 with the target at 1.3550 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Validity – 1-3 days.

XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During today’s trading session the pair reached the 5-month minimum (16.15) and was corrected up to 16.50. The volatility of silver is low due to the absence of investors in the market because of the holidays in the USA.

US dollar continues to pressure silver. The traders are waiting for the interest rate increase in December. Yesterday the Open Market Committee’s record showed that the Committee majority is sure that the US economy is strong enough for this step.

Support and resistance

XAG/USD is falling within the downward channel. On the daily chart the MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are growing. The %K line of the Stochastic indicator has crossed the %D upwards on the border of the oversold area, showing that the correction is possible.

Support levels: 16.15, 15.80, 15.30.
Resistance levels: 16.50, 16.80, 17.20.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions at the level of 16.10 with the target at 15.80 and 15.30. Stop loss is at 16.20.

It is recommended to open long positions at the level of 16.60 with the target at 17.20. Stop loss is at 16.40. Implementation period: 1 day.

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

After yesterday fall the pair is growing, despite of the favorable to Japan statistics being published. The unemployment rate index didn’t change (3%), overall household spending decreased by 0.4% against the predicted -0.6%, YoY retail trade fell by 0.1%, which has exceed the prediction of -1.2%.

The market is waiting for the USA third quarter GDP data to be published. The indicator is predicted to grow by 0.1%, which reflects positive trend of the economy development. The growth of GDP will assure the investors in the dollar’s strength, and the pair will continue to grow.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the trend is pointed upwards. The pair is trading near the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
The MACD histogram is in positive area, its volumes are rising, the signal line crosses its body upwards, giving a buy signal.

The Stochastic is leaving the overbought area, forming a sell signal.
Support levels: 111.00, 108.50, 107.00, 105.20, 104.00, 103.00, 101.10, 100.00, 98.10.
Resistance levels: 112.90, 113.90.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions at the current level of 112.60 with the target at 113.90. Stop loss is at 112.00.
It is recommended to open short positions at the level of 110.80 with the target at 109.00. Stop loss is at 111.50. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
There are a lot of fundamental factors that will affect the dynamics of the Australian dollar this week. First of all, important data on inflation and unemployment will be published in USA on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, especially Friday. Don’t forget about important releases scheduled on the night from Wednesday to Thursday: leading economic indicators from China, which is known to be one of Australia's major trading partners.

On the daily chart we can see a long-term downward trend, confirming the BOA's policy to reduce AUD rate against US dollar. Such policy is determined by the factor that 75% of the economy of the country is aimed at export.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.7837 (annual maximum), 0.7779 (monthly and weekly maximum), 0.7600, 0.7550, 0.7489.
Support levels: 0.7420, 0.7309.

Trading tips
The reasons for the global downward trend of the Australian currency is still there, so be careful when working in the "bull" corrections. Long position can be opened at the level of 0.7489 with the targets of 0.7550 and 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7430.
Short positions can be set at the level of 0.7600 with the targets of 0.7489 and 0.7420 and stop-loss 0.7750.

Brent: the OPEC agreement pushes the prices up

Current trend

On Wednesday the oil prices have rapidly grown up by 7%. In particular, the Brent price has risen above the level of 52 dollars per barrel. This significant increase is a result of the agreement on the oil production limitation for 1.2 billion barrel per day set by the OPEC. The disagreements of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, that were the main obstacles to the agreement, were overcome. As a result Iraq should cut the production by 310K barrel per day, as Iran can even increase it by 90K barrel per day. This was the first agreement since 2008 year. The petroleum exporting counties that don’t belong to the Organization should also join the agreement. In particular Ministry of Energy of Russia has already declared the intention to cut the oil production. Experts (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) agree that in case of implementation of the agreement by all of its members, which is due at January, 2017, the oil price can rise up to 60 dollars per barrel. But the OPEC members have violated the previous agreements many times, so it’s better to wait until the implementation of the agreement.

Support and resistance

The price is growing up to the level of October maxima (53.00). From this area there is a possibility of correction to the level of 50.82 (Fibonacci correction 76.4%) and 49.43 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), as the Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area. However in the middle term the growth to the level of 54.00, 55.00 is more likely.

Support levels: 50.82, 49.43, 48.29.
Resistance levels: 53.08, 54.00, 55.00.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions when the price is set above 53.08 with the target at 54.00, 55.00 and stop loss at 52.60.
It is recommended to open short positions at the level of 50.82 or 53.00 with the target at 49.43 and stop loss at 53.30.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
All this week the driver for pair’s motion was US dollar. Today is the first Friday of the month, which means that at the beginning of the American session Non-Farm Payrolls will be released. Statistics promise to be positive, which will put pressure on the pair AUD/USD.

From the technical point of view, the pair broke out of long-term downtrend channel last week. Let us consider two basic scenarios. The first is a continuation of the trend down, which is plausible in light of the strengthening of the dollar in recent years. The second scenario will happen if the breakout is the false one and it only serves to close the stop-loss order of players who trades up. It is not difficult to guess that most of the "bull" stops are in a range between the levels of 0.7309 and 0.7132, so the downward movement may continue to these levels.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.7837 (annual maximum), 0.7779 (monthly and weekly maximum), 07600, 0.7545, 0.7489, 0.7420.
Support levels: 0.7309, 0.7132 (the level of accumulation of stop-losses).

Trading tips
The reasons for the global downward trend of the Australian currency are still in force, so be careful when working in the "bull" corrections. Buy the pair from the level of 0.7420 with the targets at 0.7489, 0.7545 and 0.7600 and stop loss at 0.7370.
If the alternative scenario develops, the pending orders to buy can be set at the level of 0.7309 with the target at 0.7132 and stop loss at 0.7360.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Tonight a number of macroeconomic data from Japan and China, major trading partners of Australia, was released, as well as data on the trade balance, exports and imports of Australia. Statistics proved to be worse than expected, but this has not led to significant changes in the movement of the pair, which is being corrected now upward after the recent fall. Correction is due to decrease of the US dollar amid supersaturated expectations on raising interest rates. Today, it is worth paying attention to the US unemployment data. The release is expected to be positive and can put pressure on the pair.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7837 (annual maximum), 0.7779 (month and week high), 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7489.
Support levels: 0.7309, 0.7143, 0.7420.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7489, stop loss 0.7430, target 0.7600 and then 0.7779.
Sell orders should be placed at the bottom border of the channel (0.7450), stop loss 0.7510, the goal of 0.7309.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Gold has been falling against the USD during the last five weeks. During the trading session on Friday the pair was at the level of 1176.70 — close to the year minimum reached in March. The market is under pressure due to USD growing in anticipation of the possible FRS interest rate increase on December, 14. The stable growth of the American stock market which became more attractive to the investors, also pressures the gold.

Key levels

On the daily chart the pair is lowering towards the lower border of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volumes are the same on the level of -23.640. Stochastic is in neutral zone, lines are pointed downwards, if it crosses the border of the oversold area, the sell signal will appear.
Support levels: 1147.30, 1130.75.
Resistance levels: 1176.30, 1187.70, 1229.70.

Trading tips

It’s recommended to open short positions from the current level 1155.00 with the target at 1147.00 and stop loss at 1160.00.
It’s recommended to open long positions from the level of 1177.00 with the target at 1187.00 and stop loss at 1172.00.