Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the EUR/USD pair grew amid weak US labour market data. In particular, the Nonfarm payrolls came in at 38 thousands. However, there still a good chance of the Federal Reserve tightening its monetary policy this summer that may strengthen the US Dollar.

The Euro remains under pressure from a fall in German bond yields. Moreover, as long as there is still uncertainty around Brexit vote, the American currency may get support.

Support and resistance
RSI is below 70 suggesting the possibility of a price fall in the short term.
The nearest support level is at 1.1322.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1379.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1360 with the target at 1.1322 and stop-loss at 1.1380.

AUD/USD

Current trend
On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair strengthened to its new local high being supported by results of the RBA monetary policy meeting.

RBA’s assessment of economic prospects was quite optimistic, and interest rates were left unchanged at 1.75%. The Regulator believes that the current monetary policy would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy. However, inflation in Australia is expected to remain quite low for some time, but some signs of improvement are seen here as well.

The US Dollar, in its turn, is still under pressure from weak US labour market data and due to uncertainty regarding Fed’s tightening of monetary policy in the coming months.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a strong growth while the price range is widening actively. However, the price remains above the upper MA that indicates a downward correction possibility. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has reached its highs in the overbought zoned and turned horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.7426, 0.7400, 0.7369 (7 June level), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (near 2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low).
Resistance levels: 0.7463 (7 June high), 0.7500 (5 May level), 0.7533, 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 (3 May level).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7463 and 0.7500 are broken out with targets at 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 and stop-loss at 0.7426, 0.7400. Validity – 2-4 days.

Short positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7426, 0.7400 are broken down with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7463. Validity – 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Today the pair significantly fell after ECB President Draghi speech, in which he pointed out to long-term risks for the economy of the eurozone from a prolonged low pace of its growth. He also asserted that the regulator would do everything that is necessary in order to return inflation to its target levels.

In addition, the pair is pressured by approaching referendum in the UK. The country’s exit from the EU could lead to a crisis in the eurozone.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. Weak data might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators suggest a fall continuation. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger bands turned horizontally. Stochastic is moving down.
Support levels: 1.1340, 1.1280, 1.1225.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1415, 1.1480.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1375 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1400, and after the price consolidation below the level of 1.1330 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1360.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1415 with targets at 1.1480, 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1400.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar remains under pressure

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair substantially declined amid some strengthening in the US Dollar, which was supported by strong data on the US labour market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 264 thousands, while economists predicted their growth to 270 thousands.

At the same time, today the Australian Dollar was supported by strong data on the Industrial Production in China. In May, the index grew by 6.0% that was 0.1% better than expectations of experts.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling having left the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7538 (local low), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low), 0.7100 (psychologically important level).
Resistance levels: 0.7400 (local high), 0.7426, 0.7463, 0.7500 (9 June high), 0.7533, 0.7567 (3 May high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7358 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7463, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7327. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7327 with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7375. Validity – 2-3 days.

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
On Monday the GBP/USD pair after a short upward correction resumed its downward trend. During the past week, the pair was falling but probably has not reached its lows yet and might continue moving further down. Today attention needs to be paid to statistics on key indices which have been released in the UK and data on retail sales due in the US.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs. Further decline in the pair seems a likelier scenario.
Support levels: 1.4140, 1.4070.
Resistance levels: 1.4190, 1.4240, 1.4280, 1.4330, 1.4580.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the current level with the target at 1.4070 and stop-loss at 1.4190.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4280 with the target at 1.4330 and stop-loss at 1.4190.

EUR/USD: general review


Current trend
Today the pair is growing amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% due to the publication of very weak data on the US labour market. Just to remind, the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 38 thousands that was significantly worse than the forecasts.

At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7%, which signals that in the medium-term inflation is likely to accelerate and that would lead to tightening in monetary policy.

Support and resistance
On the hourly chart, the pair is trading in a narrow sideways channel between the levels of 1.1237 and 1.1189.
The RSI does not give a clear trading signal.
The nearest support levels is at 1.1189.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1240 with the target at 1.1303 and stop-loss at 1.1189.

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair continues growing despite results of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The Regulator decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged and noted in the Monetary Policy Statement that only one more rate increase should be expected this year. The Canadian Dollar came under pressure, as Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz expressed concerns regarding the pace of economic growth in the country.
It should be noted that oil prices have a strong impact on dynamics in the pair, and if a downward correction in the oil market continues, the pair might get support.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD is hovering around the zero line. Stochastic is in the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3002, 1.2978, 1.2951, 1.2909, 1.2871, 1.2834, 1.2786, 1.2730, 1.2692, 1.2663.
Resistance levels: 1.3093, 1.3122, 1.3168, 1.3186, 1.3237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3093 and stop-loss at 1.2951. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3122 with the target at 1.3002 and stop-loss at 1.3168. Validity – 1-2 days.

USD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid increasing anxiety on the market due to an upcoming referendum on UK’s membership in the EU, which is forcing investors to switch into safe-haven assets, such as the Yen. In addition, the Yen was supported by the decision by the Bank of Japan not to expand its stimulus program despite low inflation and weak growth of the world economy.

The pair was also pressured by poor data from the US, where the Consumer Price Index in May grew by only 0.2% that was worse than expectations, while Initial Jobless Claims increased from 264 to 277 thousands, against forecasted 270 thousands.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 104.34 (local low), 104.00, 103.74, 103.54 (local low).
Resistance levels: 104.82 (local high), 105.19, 105.54, 106.00, 106.39 (15 June high), 106.71, 107.25 (10 June high), 107.89 (7 June high), 108.22.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 104.82 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 106.00, 106.39, 106.71 and stop-loss at 104.34. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 104.00 with the target at 103.00 and stop-loss at 104.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: pair continues growing

Current trend
At the end of the previous week, the Euro was gaining positions against the US Dollar, and today the pair opened with a substantial gap up.

Current dynamics is caused by weakness in the US Dollar coupled with growing demand for risky assets. In the UK, all Brexit referendum campaigns were suspended due to the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. As a result, new polling data showed a certain decline in chances of the UK’s exit from the EU.

On Friday the American currency came under pressure from macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the number of housing starts fell from 1.167 to 1.164 million in May that was, however, better than the forecast of 1.150 million. The number of building permits grew from 1.130 to 1.138 million in May against an expected rise to 1.150 million.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a moderate growth while the price range is still narrowing quite actively. MACD has turned up and started growing with a buy signal. Stochastic has reached the border of the overbought zone that suggests a downward correction might develop in the short term.
According to the indicators, long positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.1348, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1231, 1.1200, 1.1179, 1.1128 (16 June low), 1.1100 (near 30 May low), 1.1057, 1.1000 (10 March level), 1.0966.
Resistance levels: 1.1400 (near 9 June highs), 1.1449, 1.1500 (4 May level), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 may high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.1400 is broken out (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541, 1.1577 and stop-loss at 1.1340. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price turns down near the level of 1.1400 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/JPY: продолжение снижения цены

Current trend

Demand for the Yen remains high amid difficulties and risks the global economy is facing. The American Dollar does not manage to show a strong growth being under pressure from mixed macroeconomic data, released in the US. As a result, the USD/JPY pair reached the key support level of 103.50.
Today market participants are following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony, and later this week, attention needs to be paid to US labour market statistics and data on the Durable Goods Orders.

Support and resistance
Despite of an upward correction today, the price is likely to remain within a descending channel and head towards the key support at 101.00, which is the lowest level since 2013. It also should be noted that the price might start moving sideways within the range of 101.00-107.50.

According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue its downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing. Bollinger Bands is directed up. The price remains above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of Ichimoku clouds.

Support levels: 104.15, 103.50, 102.65, 102.05, 101.00, 100.30, 100.00, 99.70.
Resistance levels: 105.05, 105.90, 107.00, 107.50, 108.75, 109.30.

Trading tips
It is recommended to build up on your short position from the levels of 105.05, 107.00 with the target at 101.00 and stop-loss at 107.90.