Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: pair is growing

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid a significant strengthening in the US Dollar. The American currency was supported by the publication of April FOMC Minutes that substantially increased the probability of an interest rate hike in the US at June’s meeting of the regulator. According to the Federal Funds futures, at present the probability stands at more than 30%.
At the same time, the pair was slightly pressured amid expectations of the release of inflation data in Canada, which is due later today.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is turning horizontally as it reached the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3037 (local low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2900, 1.2844, 1.2800 (12 May low), 1.2757.
Resistance levels: 1.3100 (local high), 1.3153 (local high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300, 1.3370 (16 March high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3218, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3037. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3000 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
Today the Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair was pressured by the publication of data on the Trade Balance in Japan. The balance surplus increased from 755 to 824 billion Yen, while experts expected it to fall to 492.8 billion.
Today attention needs to be paid to preliminary data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the US.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed horizontally and the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and forming a weak buy signal. Stochastic left the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 109.16, 108.67, 107.87, 106.22, 105.72.
Resistance levels: 110.14, 110.63, 111.61, 112.28, 113.71.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 108.67 and stop-loss at 110.14. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 108.67 with targets at 110.14, 111.61 and stop-loss at 107.87. Validity – 2-4 days.

Brent: general review

Current trend
The price of Brent crude oil tested the level of 49.00 several times but could not consolidate above it yet. Since the end of last week, the price has been trading in a narrow range of 47.55-49.34 while market volatility remains low.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing, which suggests the downward movement is forming.
Support levels: 47.55, 46.77, 45.90.
Resistance levels: 48.50, 49.34, 50.00.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 47.55 with targets at 46.77, 45.90 and stop-loss at 48.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 48.50 with targets at 49.34, 50.00 and stop-loss at 48.00.

NZD/USD: pair is growing

Current trend
Today the pair is growing amid the publication of strong data in New Zealand. In April, Exports from the country grew from 4.2 billion to 4.3 billion New Zealand Dollars that was slightly better than forecasts of economists. In addition, the Trade Balance surplus increased to 292 million NZD, while exports expected the surplus to decline to 60 million NZD. At the same time, Imports slightly fell, from 4.09 billion to 4.01 billion NZD.

The pair, however, is still pressured by the strengthening US Dollar, which is supported by the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is trying to turn up having formed a buy signal. Stochastic turned up as well.
Support levels: 0.6746 (local low), 0.6715, 0.6700 (local low), 0.6667 (28 March low).
Resistance levels: 0.6780 (local high), 0.6800 (23 May high), 0.6823, 0.6847 (12 May high), 0.6873, 0.6900 (5 May high), 0.6934, 0.6965.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6800 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.6873, 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.6750. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6800 with the target at 0.6700 and stop-loss at 0.6830. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/CHF: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell amid the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Switzerland, where the UBS Consumption Indicator grew from 1.40 to 1.47 points. In addition, the Dollar was pressured by weak data on the Markit Services PMI in the US. In May, the index fell from 52.8 to 51.2 points.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims in the US. Forecasts realisation could pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price bounced off the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and formed a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is falling, after it turned down near the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 0.9896, 0.9886, 0.9879, 0.9871, 0.9862.
Resistance levels: 0.9906, 0.9910, 0.9915, 0.9921, 0.9924, 0.9929, 0.9934.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 0.9886 and stop-loss at 0.9910. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.9910 with the target at 0.9934 and stop-loss at 0.9896. Validity – 1-2 days.

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid weakening in the GBP. The Pound was pressured by poor data on the GDP for the first quarter of the year in the UK. On a year-to-year basis, the index came out at 2.0%, which was 0.1% worse than forecasts. In addition, the Total Business Investment in the country in the previous quarter declined by 0.5%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data from the US, where the first quarter of the year GDP is due. Experts predict growth in the index to 0.9%.

Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in the ascending channel. In case of a price consolidation below the level of 1.4610, the fall is likely to continue towards the lower border of the channel.

Support levels: 1.4610, 1.4540, 1.4485. *
Resistance levels: 1.4680, 1.4740, 1.4780.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 1.4610 with targets at 1.4540, 1.4490 and stop-loss at 1.4640.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4680 with the target at 1.4740 and stop-loss at 1.4650.

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Today the pair significantly grew amid a publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia. Building Permits in April increased by 3% instead of a forecasted decline of 2.8%, while the Private Sector Credit rose from 6.4% to 6.7%.
Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Confidence in the US. Growth in the index will pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band, while bands are directed down and the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and signalling sales. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 0.7216, 0.7182, 0.7137, 0.7107, 0.7067, 0.7054, 0.7004.
Resistance levels: 0.7288, 0.7334, 0.7364, 0.7406, 0.7451.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 0.7288 and stop-loss at 0.7216. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7288 with targets at 0.7182, 0.7107 and stop-loss at 0.7334. Validity – 1-3 days.

GBP/JPY: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair continues falling. The Pound was pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK where the Consumer Credit shrank from 1.822 to 1.298 million Pounds, against a forecasted decline to 1.6 million. In addition, Mortgage Approvals fell from 70.31 to 66.25 thousands.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the PMI Construction and BOE’s Governor Carney speech in the UK.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is falling after broking down the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and keeping a sell signal.

The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 156.56, 155.56, 154.44, 153.38.
Resistance levels: 158.08, 158.87, 159.60, 160.33, 161.25, 163.10, 163.83, 165.02.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 154.44 and stop-loss at 159.60. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 158.87 with targets at 160.33, 163.10 and stop-loss at 156.56. Validity – 1-2 days.

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
During the week, the USD/CAD pair has been gradually growing. Yesterday the Canadian Dollar was under pressure, as results of the OPEC meeting in Vienna accelerated a fall in oil prices. Though the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada said Canada’s economic prospects are seen as generally favorable, the national currency did not managed to gain due support. At the same time, the US Dollar strengthened amid macroeconomic statistics on US labour market and commentaries of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.
Today precise attention needs to be paid to data on the Unemployment Rate and the Nonfarm Payrolls, released in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally, the price range has narrowed that suggests the possibility of a trend reversal. MACD histogram is slightly growing and remains near the zero line. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3084, 1.3076, 1.3065, 1.3055, 1.3041.
Resistance levels: 1.3094, 1.3103, 1.3112, 1.3119, 1.3132, 1.3142, 1.3153.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.312 and stop-loss at 1.3065. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.3084 is broken down with targets at 1.3065, 1.3055 and stop-loss at 1.3103. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics in the US, where the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at only 38 thousands, while economists predicted 164 thousands. The data lowered the probability of an interest rate hike at June’s meeting of the Fed to 4% that lead to a drop in the US against all major currencies.
Today attention needs to be paid to Fed’s Yellen speech that could determine Dollar’s dynamics for the nearest future.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair bounced off the lower border of the ascending channel and broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which indicates further growth potential.
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1130, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1540.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1380 with targets at 1.1450, 1.1540 and stop-loss at 1.1350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1220 and stop-loss at 1.1330.