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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; USD/CAD: consolidation near local lows Current trend At the end of the week, the Canadian Dollar has been trading mixed ...

      
   
  1. #121
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    USD/CAD: consolidation near local lows

    Current trend
    At the end of the week, the Canadian Dollar has been trading mixed against the US Dollar. Having reached new local lows on Wednesday, the pair has started correcting up amid the statements made by the Federal Reserve officials.
    The results of the recent Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting had a high impact on the market. However, it should be noted the Canadian currency started strengthening some time after the results were released.
    As expected, interest rates were kept unchanged at 0.5% as commodity markets instability affects the process of Canada’s economic recovery. At the same time, the regulator revised up its forecast for 2016 that can be explained by the recent growth in oil prices.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down while the price range is getting narrower. MACD is slightly growing and still keeping its sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up indicating the possibility of an upward correction in the short term.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2744 (13 April low), 1.2700 (mid-July 2015 level), 1.2650.
    Resistance levels: 1.2857, 1.2897 (14 April high), 1.2952, 1.3000 (11 April level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3180 (7 April high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the price rebounds at the level of 1.2800 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.2740.
    Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.2744 is broken down with targets at 1.2650, 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2800.



  2. #122
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    GBP/JPY: general analysis

    Current trend
    At the beginning of the trading week, the GBP/JPY pair has been correcting amid expectations of important macroeconomic releases.
    Data on adjusted merchandise trade balance is due in Japan on Wednesday. Analysts predict the indicator will grow from 242.8 billion to 834.6 billion. Thus, Japan is expected to post a trade surplus of almost 600 billion that will have a positive impact on the economy and the national currency. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to data on unemployment in the UK. An expected decline in the Claimant Count Change will support the country’s economy and strengthen the Pound. If the indicator remains unchanged or grows, the Pound is likely to come under pressure, and the GBP/JPY pair can substantially weaken.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and is giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is falling in the middle of its range.
    In general, the indicators are giving a weak sell signal.
    Support levels: 151.81, 149.92, 147.93, 145.08.
    Resistance levels: 153.45, 155.74, 157.21, 159.34, 162.29, 163.60, 165.40.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 157.21 with targets at 162.29, 163.60 and stop-loss at 153.45. Validity – 3-5 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 151.81 with targets at 147.93, 145.08 and stop-loss at 157.21. Validity – 2-4 days.


  3. #123
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    XAU/USD: general analysis

    Current trend
    Despite unsuccessful negotiations in Doha, the price of gold has been growing since the opening of the trading session today. The growth is supported by weak data on the US economy, released last week, and uncertainty over future rate increases in the country. The uncertainty has risen due to recent statement made by the Fed representative William Dudley. Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits for March, published in the US.

    Support and resistance
    On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD histogram remains in the positive zone and is keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is moving in the middle of its range.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 1233.23, 1223.81, 1215.29, 1209.17, 1201.53, 1194.97, 1190.38.
    Resistance levels: 1248.06, 1256.58, 1261.50, 1267.31, 1278.95, 1282.59.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the level of 1233.23 is broken down with the target at 1209.17 and stop-loss at 1248.06. Validity – 1-3 days.
    Long positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1256.58, 1261.50 and stop-loss at 1233.23. Validity – 1-3 days.



  4. #124
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    AUD/USD: review and forecast

    Current trend
    The pair continues growing amid strengthening in oil prices and the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia at the beginning of the week. The New Motor Vehicle Sales grew by 2.2% against the previous month that indicates that the consumer confidence is increasing.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US. A lower reading could support the pair.

    Support and resistance
    The pair is consolidating near the level of 0.7820. In the nearest term, the price could decline to the level of 0.7730, but the main upward trend will remain. A trend change would be possible after a price consolidation below the lower border of the ascending channel.
    Support levels: 0.7730, 0.7640, 0.7590.
    Resistance levels: 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7930.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 0.7790 с with the target at 0.7735 and stop-loss at 0.7810.
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7800 with targets at 0.7850, 0.7900 and stop-loss at 0.7740.


  5. #125
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    USD/CAD: general review

    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair substantially strengthened amid the publication of labour market data in the US. Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 247 thousands while economists predicted a growth to 263 thousands. In addition, the number of Continuous Claims shrank by almost 40 thousands.
    Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Price Index in Canada and Markit PMI’s in the US.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band while the price range narrowed, which indicates that the trend will likely change in the nearest future. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic has left the overbought zone suggesting a fall continuation.
    The indicators recommend short positions.
    Support levels: 1.2691, 1.2644, 1.2619, 1.2591.
    Resistance levels: 1.2752, 1.2764, 1.2794, 1.2855, 1.2889, 1.2944, 1.2993.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2764 with the target at 1.2855 and stop-loss at 1.2691. Validity – 1-2 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2691 with the target at 1.2619 and stop-loss at 1.2752. Validity – 1-2 days.


  6. #126
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    GBP/USD: review and forecast

    Current trend

    On Monday the GBP/USD pair opened with a gap up at 1.4462 and then corrected down to the level of 1.4420.

    Support and resistance
    The price range of Bollinger Bands is widening. The pair broke out the upper MA but then returned into the range and may continue moving down towards the middle MA of the indicator.

    Support levels: 1.4420, 1.4370, 1.4330, 1.4280.
    Resistance levels: 1.4490, 1.4550.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1.4370, 1.4280 and stop-loss at 1.4490.

    Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 1.4490 with the target at 1.4550 and stop-loss at 1.4220.


  7. #127
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    EUR/JPY: fall resumed

    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair resumed its fall after some strengthening in the previous week.
    The Euro was pressured by weak data from Germany where the IFO Business Climate in April fell from 106.7 to 106.6 points, while experts predicted a growth to 107.0 points. Furthermore, the IFO Expectations came out worse than forecasts as well amounting to 100.4 points. *
    At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure prior to the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. According to expectations, the Japanese regulator could proceed with further monetary policy easing.

    Support and resistance
    Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. However, the price is trading above its upper border thus indicating the possibility of a downward correction. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic continues growing while in the overbought zone.
    The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
    Support levels: 125.00 (local low), 124.22, 123.57 (21 April low), 123.06, 122.54, 122.07, 121.71 (18 April low).
    Resistance levels: 125.53 (local high), 126.16, 126.62, 127.30, 128.21 (31 March high), 128.75.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 125.53 with targets at 126.16, 126.62 and stop-loss at 124.70. Validity – 2-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 125.00 with the target at 123.00 and stop-loss at 125.53. Validity – 2-3 days.



  8. #128
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    USD/CAD: general review

    Current trend
    Yesterday the pair continued falling amid the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics in the US. Durable Goods Orders grew by 0.8% while economists forecasted a 1.8% growth, while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices grew by 5.4% that was also worse than forecasts. In addition, the Consumer Confidence fell to 64.2 points, against the forecasted 96.0 points.

    Today extra attention needs to be paid to the US Fed Interest Rate Decision. According to forecasts, there will be no changes in monetary policy.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band, while bands are directed down and widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, giving a sell signal. Stochastic is giving a buy signal.

    Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2548.
    Resistance levels: 1.2633, 1.2656, 1.2717, 1.2742, 1.2779, 1.2822, 1.2896.

    Trading tips
    Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.2574, 1.2548 and stop-loss at 1.2633. Validity – 1-2 days.

    Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2656 with targets at 1.2742, 1.2779 and stop-loss at 1.2633. Validity – 1-2 days.


  9. #129
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    EUR/USD: general review

    Current trend
    The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which was slightly pressured by yesterday’s Fed Interest Rate Decision.

    As was expected, the rate remained unchanged. The statement, however, did not contain any hints on its possible increase at the July meeting. At the same time, employment in the US keeps growing that will later accelerate wages and inflation growth. In addition, strengthening oil prices will increase inflationary pressures as well. Therefore, the possibility of the next interest rate hike in the nearest term is quite high.

    Support and resistance
    The pair continues trading in the ascending channel.
    The nearest support level is at 1.1295.
    The nearest resistance level is at 1.1342.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1342 with the target at 1.1386 and stop-loss at 1.1325.


  10. #130
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    NZD/USD: general review

    Current trend
    The New Zealand Dollar was significantly supported by the RBNZ decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged at the current 2.25%, which allowed the pair to strengthen by more than 180 points. In addition, the pair was supported by today’s data on the ANZ Business Confidence. In March, the index grew from 3.2 to 6.2 points.

    Today attention also needs to be paid to data on Personal Income and Personal Spending in the US. According to forecasts, indices will grow that might support the US Dollar.

    Support and resistance
    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is growing along the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling after it has left the overbought zone.

    Support levels: 0.6960, 0.6930, 0.6915, 0.6885, 0.6850, 0.6820, 0.6800.
    Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7070.

    Trading tips
    Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7000 with targets at 0.7040, 0.7070 and stop-loss at 0.6980. Validity – 1-3 days.
    Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6960 with targets at 0.6915, 0.6885 and stop-loss at 0.6980. Validity – 1-3 days.


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