Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Since the beginning of the week, the GBP/US D pair has been trading down. Having reached its month high at 1.4435, the price turned down and lost more than 250 points.

Today, market volatility remains low. The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision tomorrow. As for today, market participants are waiting for the Fed’s interest rate decision. The regulator is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to data on inflation and industrial production, due in the US today as well.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price range of Bollinger Bands is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4105, 1.4043, 1.3990.
Resistance levels: 1.4159, 1.4197, 1.4240, 1.4284.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.4105 with targets at 1.4043, 1.3990 and stop-loss at 1.4130.

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above the level of 1.4197 with targets at 1.4284, 1.4346 and stop-loss at 1.4166.

USD/CAD: pair is falling

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly declined after the US Fed made its Interest Rate Decision. As was expected, the rate remained unchanged at the current 0.5% but the regulator lowered its own forecasts of the pace of further monetary policy tightening. In addition, the regulator acknowledged the existence of substantial risks for the growth of the US and world economies.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to the speeches by Fed officials and to data on inflation in Canada.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening, but the price currently remains outside of its borders. MACD turned down and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is near the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3100 (local low), 1.3037 (3 November 2015 low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2951, 1.2900.
Resistance levels: 1.3164 (local high), 1.3224, 1.3265, 1.3300 (psychologically important level), 1.3370, 1.3404 (local high), 1.3457, 1.3500, 1.3586 (29 February high), 1.3650.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3200, 1.3265 and stop-loss at 1.3030. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3165. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair continued falling amid weakness of the US Dollar and the publication of mixed macroeconomic data in the US. The Current Account deficit amounted to 125.3 billion, while economists predicted it at 118.9 billion USD. At the same time, the number of Initial Jobless Claims grew to 265 thousands that was yet better than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core. According to forecast, the index will grow that might add to pressure on the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is near the oversold zone.
Support levels: 1.2965, 1.2940.
Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3165, 1.3210, 1.3265, 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3365, 1.3400, 1.3465, 1.3530.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2965 with targets at 1.2940, 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2990. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3030 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3000. Validity – 1-3 days.

NZD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the NZD/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range. Market participants are waiting for new drivers which will determine further dynamics in the pair. However, as no macroeconomic releases are due in New Zealand and not so much important data is expected to be released in the US, the pair is likely to keep trading flat.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators suggest the pair tends to trade within the sideways range. Bollinger Bands are narrowing down while the price remains near the middle MA. Later, a slight decline is possible after which a correction can be expected.
Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6630, 0.6610.
Resistance levels: 0.6795, 0.6860.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 0.6730 and stop-loss at 0.6795.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6795 with the target at 0.6860.

AUD/USD: pair moving sideways

Current trend
This week, the AUD/USD pair has been trading within a sideways range of about 100 points (0.7648-0.7550). At present, the Australian currency gains support from a slow growth in commodity prices (CRB index has been has been growing for two months already). Moreover, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens in his speech delivered to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said he has a favorable outlook for Australia’s economy. Economic and financial conditions in the country are improving and the Regulator is experienced enough in dealing with difficulties. Nevertheless, these factors have not given enough support for the pair to strengthen to 0.7700.

Support and resistance
The pair is likely to remain within the range in the short term. Though technical indicators suggest a fall (MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling; Stochastic lines are directed downward), the pair can start moving down only if it manages to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci fan line and the level of 0.7535. The level of 0.7665 is seen as the key one for the Bulls.
Support levels: 0.7550, 0.7535, 0.7456 and 0.7391.
Resistance levels: 0.7648, 0.7665, 0.7700 and 0.7770.

Trading tips
At present, positions should be placed within the sideways range. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7535 with targets at 0.7456, 0.7391 and stop-loss at 0.7580.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7600 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands) with the target at 0.7650. Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 0.7665 with targets at 0.7700, 0.7770 and stop-loss at 0.7620.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Due to the lack of macroeconomic drivers, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.1143-1.1187. Today is the Good Friday holiday in Europe, so market volatility is expected to remain low. Out of macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the data on US Gross Domestic Product Annualized and Personal Consumption Expenditures for the fourth quarter. Both indicators are expected to remain unchanged, GDP at 1% and Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.4%.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed down, suggesting the pair is likely to continue its downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are insignificant indicating low trading activity.
Support levels: 1.1143, 1.1093, 1.1056.
Resistance levels: 1.1187, 1.1222, 1.1259.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1143 with the target at 1.1093 and stop-loss at 1.1163.
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.1187 with the target at 1.1222 and, possibly, 1.1259 and stop-loss at 1.1170.

EUR/USD: pair is falling

Current trend
Last week, the EUR/USD pair corrected down to new local lows from its six-week highs. The US currency was supported by Fed officials’ statements which has left a more positive impression than the results of the monetary policy meeting did. Moreover, further tightening of US monetary policy seems likelier amid recent macroeconomic publications.
In particular, strong data on US GDP for the fourth quarter was released on Friday. The indicator was revised up to 1.4% from 1.0%.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is trying to turn horizontally while the price range has outlined the borders of a possible sideways channel. MACD is still keeping its downward trend. Stochastic in the oversold zone and trying to turn up suggesting an upward correction is possible in the short term.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.1160, 1.1100, 1.1067 (near 16 March low), 1.1000, 1.0966, 1.0939.
Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1246, 1.1300, 1.1342 (17 March high), 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1459.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price turns up near the level of 1.1160 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.1300 and stop-loss at 1.1100. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened is the price breaks down the levels of 1.1150, 1.1100 with the target at 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.1200. Validity – 2-4 days.

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The GBP/USD pair strengthened by more than 100 points on Monday. The pair was supported by macroeconomic data, released in the US. In particular, the PCE price index for February was down to 0.1% from 0.3%, and the indicator of personal income declined from 0.5% to 0.2%. As a result, the pair reached the level of 1.4282 but did not manage to consolidate above it and corrected slightly down.
Out of macroeconomic statistics, which can have an impact on the pair, attention needs to be paid to data on Consumer Confidence and the Fed's Chair Janet Yellen Speech.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed up. At the same time, the price has broken out the upper border of the price range indicating a downward correction can start towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, to the level of 1.4162. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4194, 1.4157, 1.4111, 1.4086.
Resistance levels: 1.4247, 1.4282, 1.4311, 1.4345.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.4282 with targets at 1.4311, 1.4345 and stop-loss at 1.4261.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.4194 with targets at 1.4157, 1.4111 and stop-loss at 1.4221.

EUR/JPY: pair is growing

Current trend
Yesterday the pair strengthened amid Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech, in which she pointed out to the existence of substantial risks to world economy growth and the need to remain cautious with further monetary policy tightening in the US. Her comments significantly pressured the Dollar that allowed the Euro to strengthen.
In addition, the pair was supported by poor data from Japan. In February, the Unemployment Rate grew from 3.2% to 3.3%, while Retail Sales fell by 2.3%.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. However, the price remains above the upper border of the range. MACD is growing and giving a moderate buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 126.62 (local low), 126.16, 125.77 (24 March low), 125.00 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 124.22, 123.57, 123.05 (9 March low), 122.45.
Resistance levels: 127.30 (11 and 29 March highs), 128.17 (16 February high), 128.75, 129.13, 129.80 (10 February high), 130.26, 130.63.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 127.30 with targets at 128.75, 129.00 and stop-loss at 126.60. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 126.60 with the target at 125.00 and stop-loss at 127.50. Validity – 2-4 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar.
At the same time, data published by Standard & Poor’s ratings services firm showed that the pace of growth of the eurozone economy could be lower than forecasted 1.8%, and reach only 1.5%. To some extent, this is the result of recent terrorist attacks that substantially decreased tourist trips to the Union, while tourism makes up nearly 10% of the EU GDP.

Support and resistance
Yesterday the pair retested the resistance level at 1.1375 but failed to overcome it again.
The nearest support level is at 1.1244.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1337.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1247 and stop-loss at 1.1337.