Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair significantly fell having lost around 400 points and reached its March 2009 lows.
The pair was substantially pressured by strong data from the US on the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015 and Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index. Furthermore, UK’s data on the Total Business Investment and Consumer Confidence came out worse than expectations, which added to the pressure on the pair.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Pending Home Sales for January from the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are barely changing. ADX indicates a fall in the price, while DI lines are crossing each other and heading in opposite directions.
Support levels: 1.3841.
Resistance levels: 1.3878, 1.3923, 1.3965, 1.4025, 1.4070, 1.4107.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3840 with targets at 1.3800, 1.3760 and stop-loss at 1.3870. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positons can be opened from the level of 1.3920 with the target at 1.3960 and stop-loss at 1.3900. Validity- 1-2 days.

XAG/USD: growth resumed

Current trend
On Monday, the price of silver grew slightly, having moved up from its recent lows reached at the end of the previous week. Presently, the price is growing within an upward correction, but analysts keep positive outlook. Negative dynamics in stock markets and not so strong positions of the US currency allow prices of commodity assets to grow.
In particular, Chicago purchasing managers' index was down to 47.6 points in February from 55.6 points, while analysts forecasted a decline to only 53.0 points.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is turning down while the price range is narrowing down again. MACD keeps its strong upward trend. Stochastic has reached the border of the oversold zone and is trying to turn horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 14.78, 14.60 (29 February low), 14.48, 14.40, 14.30, 14.18, 14.00 (22 January low), 13.90.
Resistance levels: 14.92, 15.07, 15.15, 15.29, 15.44, 15.57 (24 February high), 15.84, 16.00, 16.10, 16.34.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the levels of 15.00, 15.07 (with appropriate indicator signals) with targets at 15.44, 15.57, 15.84 and stop-loss at 14.75. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened if the price turns down near the level of 15.00 with the target at 14.60 stop-loss at 15.30, 15.40. Validity – 2-3 days.

AUD/USD: pair is growing

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is growing amid positive commentaries by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens. According to the head of the regulator, the Australian economy is likely to be on the rise at present. Furthermore, inflation in the country remains near its targets thus allowing for additional stimulation measures should they be required.
The pair was also supported by strong GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2015 from Australia. The index showed a 3.0% growth, which was significantly better than expectations.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range remains unchanged. MACD resumed its growth and formed a buy signal. Stochastic is growing as it bounced off the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 0.7200 (local low), 0.7186, 0.7158, 0.7128, 0.7100, 0.7068 (19 February low), 0.7045, 0.7000, 0.6973 (9 February low).
Resistance levels: 0.7242 (local high), 0.7258 (23 February high), 0.7282, 0.7300, 0.7327 (31 December high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.7258 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7350, 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7220. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7258 with targets at 0.7150, 0.7100 and stop-loss at 0.7300. Validity – 2-4 days.

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
The AUD/USD pair continues growing. The pair was supported by strong data from Australia that came out better than forecasts. The Trade Balance deficit shrank to 2.94 billion, while the AiG Performance of Services Index grew to 51.8 points.
Today pair’s dynamics can influenced by data on Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders from the US. Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in Australia and the Unemployment Rate in the US.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are horizontal. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. ADX is moving up, while DI lines are crossing each other and heading in opposite directions.
Support levels: 0.7296, 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7127, 0.7070, 0.7000, 0.6953, 0.6906, 0.6830.
Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7380.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7340, 0.7380 and stop-loss at 0.7320. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7290 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7310. Validity – 1-2 days.

USD/CAD: review and forecast

Current trend
This week, the USD/CAD pair has been falling like it did in the previous month. At present, the price remains near the level of the beginning of December 2015.
Today, series of macroeconomic publications are due both in the US and Canada. At 3:30 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to statistics on US labour market, including data on unemployment rate. It is hard to predict what impact these releases will have on the American currency. At the same time, analysts’ forecasts for Canada’s data are generally negative.

Support and resistance
According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue moving down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3060, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3700, 1.3900, 1.4070.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.3300 with the target at 1.3060.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3540 with the target at 1.3700.

USD/JPY: pair trades flat

Current trend
The USD/JPY pair ended the previous trading week near the opening levels.
On Friday, the Yen was growing moderately during the morning session supported by the statements of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the central bank is not considering any further cuts in interest rates. More support for the currency came from favorable data on labour cash earning which were up by 0.4% in January after the previous 0.2% growth.
Then, the pair gained back its losses amid US macroeconomic data but did not manage to strengthen further, as the US Dollar came under pressure due to a fall in the indicators of average hourly earnings and average weekly hours.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is directed horizontally while the price range is trying to remain within the current borders. MACD is slowing down its growth but is still keeping a relatively strong buy signal. Stochastic has left the overbought zone and moving up-and-down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 113.50, 113.00, 112.50, 112.00, 110.97 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 113.85, 114.54 (2 March high), 115.00, 115.56, 116.00 (8 February level), 116.50, 117.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 113.85 with targets at 115.00, 115.60 and stop-loss at 113.00. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 113.00 with targets at 112.00, 111.50, 111.00 and stop-loss at 113.70. Validity – 2-4 days.

USD/CAD: review and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly grew amid some decline in oil prices and the strengthening US Dollar.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and the regulator’s Rate Statement. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at the current 0.5%. High volatility is expected on the market during the news releases.

Support and resistance
The pair is trading near the strong resistance level at 1.3470 that the price has tested three times since the beginning of the month.
The likeliest scenario seems a price rebound from the level of 1.3470 that coincides with the upper MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, and its further fall towards the middle MA of the indicator at the level of 1.3364.
Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3585.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3470 with the target at 1.3364 and stop-loss at 1.3495.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3495 with the target at 1.3585 and stop-loss at 1.3470.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair showed a volatile trade amid the monetary policy ECB meeting. As soon as the decision to cut the refinance rate to zero and the deposit rate to -0.4% was made, the pair significantly fell. However, later comments by Mario Draghi that in the near future more monetary policy easing in unlikely sent the pair in the opposite direction. At the same time, pair’s growth was limited by strong data on Initial Jobless Claims form the US that fell to 259 thousands that was better than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Imports and Exports from the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price broke out the upper MA of Bollinger Bands suggesting a downward correction possibility towards the level of 1.1038. MACD histogram is in the positive zone but its volumes are falling indicating a correction possibility as well.
Support levels: 1.1158, 1.1038, 1.1000, 1.0990.
Resistance levels: 1.1217, 1.1250, 1.1286.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 1.1100 with targets at 1.1038, 1.0990 and stop-loss at 1.1125.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1217 with targets at 1.1250, 1.1286 and stop-loss at 1.1242.

USD/JPY: pair shows flat

Current trend

In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of strong data in the US and the ECB decision to expand its QE program.
At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure prior to the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy that is due tomorrow. Investors worry that the regulator can apply fresh measures aimed at limiting growth in the Yen and stimulating inflation growth.
In addition, tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Industrial Production in Japan.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range significantly narrowed. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 113.50 (local low), 113.00, 112.50 (9 and 10 March lows), 112.00, 110.97 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 114.00 (local high), 114.54 (2 March high), 115.00, 115.56, 116.00, 116.50, 117.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 114.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 115.00, 115.56 and stop-loss at 113.50. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 114.00 with targets at 113.00, 112.50 and stop-loss at 114.60. Validity – 2-4 days.

AUD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is showing a significant decline. The pair was substantially pressured by the Bank of Japan statement. As was expected, the regulator left monetary policy unchanged. However, in its Monetary Policy Statement it noted that prospects for the world economy growth remain gloom.
In addition, according to today’s RBA Meeting Minutes, the Australian GDP continues growing but labour market conditions are still poor. In particular, wages growth remain low.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD turned down and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is near the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend considering correctional sales.
Support levels: 85.00 (local low), 84.46, 83.69 (10 March low), 83.00, 82.41, 82.06.
Resistance levels: 85.69 (local high), 86.00, 86.39 (local high), 87.00, 87.30 (4 January high), 88.00, 88.60.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 83.00, 82.00 and stop-loss at 85.00. Validity – 2-4 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 85.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 86.39, 87.00 and stop-loss at 84.00. Validity – 2-3 days.