Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues consolidating near the level of 101.10. Yesterday, the Yen strengthened against the Dollar amid the publication of data on the Nonfarm Productivity in the US. In the second quarter of the year, the index fell by 0.5% while experts predicted a growth of 0.4%. In the first quarter, the index declined by 0.6%.
Today attention needs to be paid to the Monthly Budget Statement in the US. According to forecasts, the budget deficit will amount to $129.9 billion, which could pressure the Dollar.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues moving along the descending channel. Trade volumes remain low.
Technical indicators do not give a clear trading signal. Bollinger bands are directed horizontally. Stochastic is in the oversold zone.
Support levels: 101.10, 100.65, 100.00.
Resistance levels: 101.70, 102.10, 102.60.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 101.70 with targets at 102.10, 102.60 and stop-loss at 101.50.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 101.10 with the target at 100.65 and stop-loss at 101.00.

EUR/USD: growth possibility remains

Current trend
This week, the pair recovered the losses it incurred last Friday when the US released strong data on the labour market. At present, the price corrected to the region of the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and attempts to resume its growth. Critical for Bulls seems to be the level of 1.1166 that coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci correction. Its breakout would lead to a growth continuation to the levels of 1.1200, 1.1233, and possibly 1.1270. For Bears, crucial would be the level of 1.1125 that coincides with the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, a breakdown of which would open the way towards the levels of 1.1090, 1.1058 and 1.1015.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall that might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators give contradicting signals. Bollinger bands are directed up. Stochastic lines turned down. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 1.1125, 1.1090, 1.1058, 1.1015.
Resistance levels: 1.1166, 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1166 with targets at 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270 and stop-loss at 1.1130. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1125 with targets at 1.1090, 1.1058 and stop-loss at 1.1155. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the USD/CAD pair was under pressure amid a growth in oil prices. The Canadian Dollar gained strong support when Saudi Energy Minister said the country would discuss measures aimed at stabilizing prices with other oil producers during a meeting in late September.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia boosted its oil output in July to a record 10.67 million barrels a day and lowered the pricing terms for Asian clients that is seen as a negative factor for the Canadian Dollar.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is moving down. MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, its volumes are falling and keeping. Stochastic is heading towards the border of the overbought zone.
Short positions seem preferable, but it is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals before placing your orders.
Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2935, 1.2922, 1.2912, 1.2901.
Resistance levels: 1.2974, 1.2988, 1.3199, 1.3002, 1.3016, 1.3061.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current levels with targets at 1.2925, 1.2915 and stop-loss at 1.2980. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2980 with the target at 1.3010 and stop-loss at 1.2960. Validity – 2-4 days.

NZD/USD: growth continues

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid significant weakening in the US Dollar. The American currency was pressured by poor data on Retail Sales and the GDP for the second quarter of the year. In addition, today’s data on the Consumer Price Index showed a zero inflation growth in July, which increased pressure on the Dollar due to falling probability of monetary policy tightening by the Fed until the end of the year.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the labour market and Producer Price Indices in New Zealand, and to the FOMC Minutes in the US.

Support and resistance
In the medium-term, the pair is expected to continue growing towards the key resistance level at 0.7330, a breakout of which would open the way towards the levels of 0.7600, 0.7625.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Bollinger bands are directed up.
Support levels: 0.7230, 0.7175, 0.7150, 0.7020, 0.7000, 0.6955, 0.6900, 0.6750.
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7415, 0.7450, 0.7500, 0.7565, 0.7600, 0.7625.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the levels of 0.7230, 0.7175 with the target at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7135.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Today the pair is consolidating after a significant growth yesterday amid the publication of weak data in the US.
The Consumer Price Index in July grew by only 0.8%, which was worse than forecasts and increased doubts on the market regarding the possibility of monetary policy tightening by the Fed this year. In addition, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in the eurozone increased from -14.7 to 4.6 points, substantially exceeding forecasts, while the trade balance surplus rose from 24.6 billion to 29.9 billion Euro.

Support and resistance
On the hourly chart, the pair has formed a “triangle” patter, with the upper border at the level of 1.1283 and the lower at 1.1254.
RSI is trying to turn down in approximately the middle of its range.
The nearest support level is at 1.1254.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1283.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1254 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1283.

EUR/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
In the Asian trading session, the Yen grew moderately against the Euro amid strong data on Japan’s trade balance. The country recorded a 513.5 billion surplus in July that is substantially above consensus of a 283.7 billion surplus.
Today the eurozone’s Consumer Price Index came out below market forecasts. The data showed that the index fell 0.6% in July after a 0.2% growth in June. This afternoon, dynamics in the pair can also be influenced by the publication of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, due at 1:30 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD remains at the zero line. Stochastic turned up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 112.99, 112.87, 112.74, 112.58.
Resistance levels: 113.27, 113.44, 113.62, 113.92, 114.01.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.25 with targets at 113.62, 113.90 and stop-loss at 112.95. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 112.90 with the target at 112.40 and stop-loss at 113.20. Validity – 1 day.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid weakening in the US Dollar. The American currency is pressured by a low probability of an interest rate increase by the Fed this year as the latest FOMC Minutes showed a unanimous opinion of key committee members to leave the rate unchanged.
Today no important macroeconomic data that could affect dynamics in the pair is expected to be published.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling and approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1303, 1.1296, 1.1289, 1.1279, 1.1266, 1.1251.
Resistance levels: 1.1328, 1.1339, 1.1348, 1.1355, 1.1364, 1.1370.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.1350 and stop-loss at 1.1310. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1295 with the target at 1.1240 and stop-loss at 1.1315. Validity – 1-3 days.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
In the long term, the price of gold tends to grow due to several causes. Amid a fall in bond yields, the largest pension funds are seeking for alternative assets to invest in.
It should also be noted that a growth in US stock markets towards new highs raises concerns among investors and results in their decision to diversify risks.
The price of gold gains support from the Fed wait-and-see attitude regarding interest rate hikes. At the same time, political risk should not be underestimated as well. US presidential election is due in November, and now there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding that.

Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1097.66.
The nearest resistance level is at 1112.97.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1340.00 with the target at 1350.00 and stop-loss at 1333.00.

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which remains under pressure due to a fallen probability of monetary policy tightening by the American regulator in the nearest future. In addition, the pair was supported by today’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand President Graeme Wheeler speech in which he noted the effectiveness of pursued monetary policy and suggested it would be reasonable to tighten it in the near term.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on the US GDP that is due on Friday. An expected fall in the index from 1.2% to 1.1% might substantially support the pair.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is testing a strong resistance level at 0.7325.
Bollinger Bands is directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic turned up near the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 0.7278, 0.7240, 0.7201, 0.7179, 0.7143, 0.7110, 0.7064.
Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7339, 0.7367, 0.7401.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.7370, 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7240. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7200 with the target at 0.7140 and stop-loss at 0.7220. Validity – 2-4 days.

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The GBP/USD pair was growing, but did not manage to break out the resistance level of 1.3272, and started correcting down amid the lack of support from macroeconomic statistics.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders, due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). Both indicators are expected to show growth.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price range of Bollinger Bands is narrowing. MACD histogram remains in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling gradually. Stochastic lines are directed down.
According to the indicators, short positions seem preferable.
Support levels: 1.3175, 1.3131, 1.3091, 1.3034.
Resistance levels: 1.3272, 1.3340, 1.3374, 1.3400.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3175 with targets at 1.3131 and 1.3091.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3272 with targets at 1.3340 and 1.3374.