Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined on Tuesday, updating local lows of November 15.

Investors are still focused on the US-Chinese trade conflict. In anticipation of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, US President Donald Trump gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal; he said he is ready to impose increased tariffs on remaining Chinese imports totaling USD 267 billion if negotiations with Xi Jinping fail. The rate may be 10% or 25% but is yet to be confirmed. These comments may be an element of pressure to persuade the PRC to sign a treaty with the US. Trump also spoke about the Brexit deal, the text of which was approved by EU representatives on Sunday. According to Trump, the deal is excellent for the EU; however, accepting it, the UK will not be able to conduct bilateral trade with the US.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range consolidated, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down keeping a sell signal (located under the signal line). Besides, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps downward direction but is approaching minimum levels, which reflects the oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1216.62, 1220.12, 1226.11, 1229.84.
Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1196.10.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1216.62. Take profit — 1226.11 or 1229.84. Stop loss — 1212.00.
The rebound from 1216.62 with the subsequent breakdown of 1211.80 can become a signal to return to sales with target at 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1216.62.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair strengthened by 65 points after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

In general, the speech was neutral. USD was under pressure due to the mentioned necessity of balancing the current monetary policy in order to avoid "overheating" of the economy. Nevertheless, the Fed chief continues to insist on a gradual increase in the key rate, since US macroeconomic indicators of the labor market and inflation corresponded with a policy of tightening. Meanwhile, the New Zealand regulator has published negative data on the business optimism index. According to the report, business investment in the country is at a low level, which is a negative signal when assessing the state of the economy as a whole.

Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the US labor market and inflation data will be published. The release of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes is due at 21:00 (GMT+2). Both news releases can create strong market volatility. Most investors expect USD to grow.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the upper border of Bollinger bands, which is the key resistance level. The indicator is directed sideways, and the price range has expanded significantly, which is the basis for further growth. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes continue to grow, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic reversed downwards at the border of the overbought area.

Resistance levels: 0.6855, 0.6907, 0.6956, 0.7022.
Support levels: 0.6822, 0.6790, 0.6737, 0.6701, 0.6663, 0.6629.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.6765 and stop loss 0.6900.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6905 with the target at 0.6960 and stop loss 0.6885.
Implementation period: 1–2 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

EUR strengthened against USD on Thursday amid a refutation regarding the introduction of US tariffs on cars from the EU before Christmas made by the European Commission.

The single currency was also supported by positive labor market statistics from Germany. Macroeconomic data from the US was mixed and did not support the USD. Private spending increased to 0.6% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. Personal income also showed a positive trend and amounted to 0.5% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. The FOMC protocol published last night confirmed the Fed’s intention to raise the key rate in December. At the same time, the regulator believes that in the future it is necessary to carefully approach the issue of tightening monetary policy after the December round of rate hikes. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency.

Today, the publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone (12:00 GMT+3) may influence the pair; high volatility is expected in the market.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, there is an upward correction, the instrument is traded near the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded, which indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement. MACD histogram is in the positive area, gradually increasing volumes, the signal line crosses the zero mark and the body of the histogram from the bottom up, which is a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.1362, 1.1348, 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1265.
Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1433, 1.1460, 1.1491.

Trading tips

Long position may be opened from 1.1400 with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Short positions may be opened from 1.1330 with the target at 1.1265 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: price restores

Current trend

Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are steadily growing, opened the trading of the new week with a significant upward gap. Investors are reacting to the results of the G20 summit held at the weekend, at which a key agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to lower production volumes was reached. December 6, a meeting of OPEC+ in Vienna will be held, to which market participants will come up with well-formed expectations for next year.

Also noteworthy is the Friday report from Baker Hughes, which reflected the growth in the number of active oil platforms from 885 to 887 units.

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on US business activity. It is predicted that in November, ISM Manufacturing PMI may increase from 57.7 to 57.8 points, and ISM Manufacturing Prices over the same period may drop from 71.6 to 68.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are reversing horizontally. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in direction of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing almost vertically, rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought soon.

The development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term is possible.

Resistance levels: 54.72, 55.64, 57.00, 58.64.
Support levels: 52.38, 51.32, 50.00, 49.00, 48.09.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 54.72 with the targets at 58.64 or 60.00. Stop loss is 53.40.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 52.38 or 51.32 with the target at 48.09. Stop loss is 52.40 or 53.50.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Brent quotes are moderately growing and reached the area of ​​62.50 in anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC representatives meeting. On Wednesday in Vienna, a meeting of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee will be held to assess the implementation of the limitation of the oil production agreement. On Thursday, a meeting of OPEC ministers will be held, at which, as predicted, a new agreement on reducing the level of production of "black gold" will be announced. Also, the price is supported by news about the agreement reached between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia during the G20 summit to extend the agreement on oil production reducing.

Today, investors will pay attention to the preliminary data from the API about the weekly change in US oil reserves at 23:30 (GMT+2). If the rate rises, the instrument will be affected negatively in the short term. Official data from the US Department of Energy will be published tomorrow.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflex the development of growth potential. Bollinger bands and Stochastic lines are directed upwards. MACD volumes are actively growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 62.50, 64.06, 65.62.
Support levels: 60.93, 59.37, 57.18.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 62.50 with the targets near 64.06 and stop loss 62.00.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 60.93 with the targets around ​​59.37 and stop loss 61.40

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: USD strengthens

Current trend

USD showed strong growth against CAD on December 4, recovering from the "bearish" dynamics of the beginning of the week.

The euphoria of the market after a meeting of the US President Donald Trump and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping begins to calm down. The trade conflict was not resolved, its escalation was only postponed for three months. Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow is counting on a quick breakthrough, primarily on the issue of protecting American intellectual property in the PRC; however, the market does not believe these comments.

Published yesterday, data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI was above market expectations. In November, it rose from 57.7 to 59.3 points, which provided short-term support to USD.

Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 1.75%.

Support and resistance

The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading last days. MACD indicator is growing trying to form a new buy signal (the histogram has to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic is gradually reversing up, located in the middle of its area. The showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3317, 1.3358.
Support levels: 1.3264, 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3158.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking out 1.3300 with take profit at 1.3358 and stop loss at 1.3270. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
After the rebound from 1.3300 and a breakdown of 1.3264, corrective sales may start with the target at 1.3200 or 1.3158. Stop loss – 1.3300. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the upward momentum maintains

Current trend

Since the beginning of this week, the USD/CAD pair has grown by more than 250 points due to a decrease in demand for CAD and a moderate growth of USD. The price easily broke the local maximum of the end of June at 1.3390, which was a strong resistance level. CAD is under pressure of a rapid decline in oil prices and a drop in the activity of the energy sector. The US dollar, in turn, gradually strengthens its position.

Today and tomorrow, in the United States a number of key releases that may affect the pair, will be released: labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, statistics on Production Orders, as well as key indices.

Support and resistance

In the short term, the upward momentum will raise the instrument to key resistance levels. If the US releases on the labor market are positive, the price may grow significantly. Now, the pair has almost reached the next serious resistance at the level of 1.3450. From this level, the pair may drop and move under the influence of trading sentiment and macroeconomic statistics. The long-term and medium-term trends remain upward, which means it is worth opening long positions, perhaps just after the downward correction.

Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast, the volumes of long MACD positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

The Resistance levels are 1.3450, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3650.
Support levels: 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

Trading tips

It is relevant to open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290 with the target at 1.3530 and stop loss 1.3240.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Last week, Brent crude oil was traded in both directions. The long-term pressure on the market persists, but the instrument has kept from falling below the important psychological level of 60.00.

On Friday, quotes strengthened amid OPEC+ agreements to reduce total production by 1.2 million barrels per day. In addition, crude oil stocks in the US domestic market have declined for the first time in 11 weeks. However, on Friday at 21:00 (GMT+2), Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms had a significant but short-term pressure on the instrument, reflecting growth in drilling activity in the United States. Most experts say that the volume of OPEC reduction is insufficient to return the market to a deficit.

Tomorrow (at 23:30 GMT+2), API will publish data on the weekly change in reserves of commercial oil in the US.

Support and resistance

On H4 chart, the instrument is trying to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger Bands, which is the key support level. The indicator is directed horizontally, and the price range expands, indicating a further fall in the instrument. MACD histogram is correcting in the neutral zone, the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic does not give a clear signal to open positions.

Support levels: 60.90, 58.95, 57.50.
Resistance levels: 62.88, 65.04, 66.85, 68.39, 70.50.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 60.50 with the target at 58.80 and stop loss at 61.35.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 61.35 with the target at 62.90 and stop loss at 60.80.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. YM: general review

Current trend

The Dow Jones index is slightly recovering and trading above support level of 24218.8 (Murrey [2/8]). Demand in the markets was caused by the news that the Vice-Premier of China and a representative of the US Treasury discussed the next stage of negotiations.

The US dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of political risks that are associated with Brexit. On the other hand, economists at Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank, predict that the Fed may delay the further tightening of monetary policy next year, which in turn will support the stock market and reduce USD exchange rate. However, this is only a preliminary assessment and the regulator will make its decisions based on economic data.

The second important event for the market is the political crisis in the United States. It became known that the former lawyer of Donald Trump may be sentenced to prison because of tax evasion and various frauds during the election campaign. As a result, Democrats can begin hearings about the impeachment of the current US president.

Today, data on producer price index in the United States will be published.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at the level of 80 points and indicates the possible correction.
Resistance levels: 24609.4, 24722.0.
Support levels: 24218.8, 23982.0.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 24609.4 with take-profit at 24218.8 and stop loss at 24722.0.

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the D1 chart, the instrument is trading above the upper line of Bollinger Bands; the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and has minimum volume, the signal line is about to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral area, and the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On H4 chart the instrument is growing along the upper border of Bollinger Bands, and the price range is widened. MACD histogram is in the positive area keeping a signal for opening buy orders. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the overbought zone; the oscillator lines are directed horizontally.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 14.76, 14.90, 15.09, 15.23.
Support levels: 14.65, 14.59, 14.44, 14.37, 14.31, 14.22, 14.16, 14.08, 14.03, 13.93, 13.88.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 14.90, 15.09 and stop loss at 14.65.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 14.59 with targets at 14.44, 14.37, 14.31. Stop loss – 14.65.
Implementation time: 1-3 days.