Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning up, and on the level with the EMA130, which is horizontal. The RSI is testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1212.0 (September highs), 1195.0 (local lows), 1182.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1240.0 (local highs), 1246.0 (October 2016 lows), 1262.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of a downward correction, after which the growth will resume.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1212.0 with targets at 1240.0, 1246.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with the target at 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On D1 chart, the instrument broke through the middle line of Bollinger Bands, and after that, the decline slowed down. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal, the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are pointing downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument declines along the lower border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in negative zone with its volumes gradually growing; the signal line is crossing its body from above, keeping the signal for the opening of short orders. Stochastic crossed the border of the oversold zone from above, the oscillator lines are reversing up.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.39, 14.33, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.
Resistance levels: 14.43, 14.49, 14.60, 14.70, 14.77, 14.82, 14.89.

Trading tips

According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with the target at 14.22 and stop loss at 14.50.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 14.60 with the target at 14.82 and stop loss at 14.49.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined significantly on Tuesday, responding to the strengthening USD across the entire spectrum of the market and the decline in traders' interest in safe-haven assets due to a rise in stock markets.

Traders are focused on US-China trade conflict. According to Bloomberg, the US government is preparing to impose duties on the remaining Chinese imports, the amount of which is about USD 257B. The new duties will come into force if the November meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit ends without result. In this case, the growth of Chinese GDP next year may slow down to 1.5% (this year the figure is expected to be higher than 6.0%). However, the Chinese authorities are unlikely to allow such a decline in the economy, so they are already trying to level out the threat.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range keeps the flat dynamics remaining too narrow for the current activity at the market. MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the oversold instrument in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08, 1237.60, 1243.21.
Support levels: 1215.28, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1195.28.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1215.28 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1220.45. Take profit — 1237.60 or 1243.21. Stop loss — 1210.00.
A breakdown of 1215.28 may become a signal to further sales with target at 1208.14, 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1220.45.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the lows ​​of the current year. USD strengthened against EUR due to ADP Nonfarm Employment Change release: in October, the value increased by 227K, exceeding the forecast by 189K. Its growth has a positive effect on the level of consumption, stimulating the economy and strengthening the currency.

In September, Retail Sales in Germany rose by only 0.1% instead of the expected 0.5%, while on an annualized basis the figure fell by 2.6%. However, EU inflation’s growth exceeded market expectations. In October, CPI increased from 2.1% to 2.2%, and Core Consumer Price Index grew from 0.9% to 1.1%.

US Manufacturing PMI release is due 15:45 (GMT+2) today. It is predicted that October indicator may fall for the second month in a row, from 59.8 to 59.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the downward movement is in the correction towards the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to open short positions.

Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490.
Support levels: 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1330 with the target at 1.1280 and stop loss 1.1360.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1375 with the target at 1.1430 and stop loss 1.1340.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: prices are falling

Current trend

Yesterday, oil prices dropped significantly and renewed the lows since April 10 due to traders' concerns about the growing imbalance of supply and demand in the market.

The weekly EIA data released in the middle of the week reflected the growth of US oil reserves by 3.217 million barrels, which is less than the forecast of 4.110 million. However, gasoline inventories fell by 3.161 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 4.954 million. The main pressure on the quotes had an increase in American oil production. In August, it grew to 11.246 million barrels per day, which made the country the world leader in the field.

On Friday, investors will focus on the block of US labor market data and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count release.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is tending to wide, but not as fast as the “bearish” trend is developing in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards but is close to its lows, which indicates that the instrument can become is oversold in the short and/or ultra-short term.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.74, 67.00.
Support levels: 63.13, 62.67, 61.71, 61.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from 63.13 and the breakout of the level of 64.00 with the target at 67.00. Stop loss is 63.00 or 62.70. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels 63.13–63.00 with the target at 61.00. Stop loss is 64.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR strengthened against USD, despite macroeconomic data favorable to the American economy. October Markit Service PMI rose to 54.8 points, exceeding the forecast of 54.7 points. ISM Service PMI also outperformed the forecast, reaching 54.9 points against the forecast of 54.8. Composite Markit PMI fell by 1.3 points against the previous value but was better than expected, reaching 60.3 points.

Market participants are preparing for the upcoming Congressional midterm elections. If the Republicans fail to hold the House of Representatives, then President Trump’s position may deteriorate. Probably, representatives of the Democratic Party will impede the implementation of the economic plans of the current administration, as well as be able to raise the issue of impeachment. The investors are also focused on the trade conflict between the United States and China.

Today, traders are waiting for the EU Service PMI release. According to forecasts, in October the indicator will remain at the same level of 53.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving sideways within a corridor formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, generating a signal to open long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490, 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1630.
Support levels: 1.1410, 1.1395, 1.1380, 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1300 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the D1 chart, the instrument corrected to the center line of Bollinger Bands; the pair shows lateral movement in the corridor formed by the boundaries of the indicator. MACD histogram is at the zero level, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the signal line of the oscillator is directed horizontally.

XAG/USD, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument returned to growth after a downward correction, the pair is trading between the bottom and center lines of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is directed downwards. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the oversold zone, the oscillator lines are reversing upwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 14.59, 14.69, 14.77, 14.81, 14.90.
Support levels: 14.45, 14.36, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 14.90 and stop loss at 14.36.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 14.22 with target at 13.92. Stop loss — 14.36.

Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. FDAX: technical analysis

FDAX, D1

On the D1 chart, a descending movement correction is observed; the instrument is trading between the center and upper lines of Bollinger Bands, and the indicator borders are narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for opening short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

FDAX, H4

On the H4 chart, the uptrend is still in force; the instrument is trading near the upper line of Bollinger Bands; the indicator borders are widened, which may indicate a likely continuation of growth in the short term. MACD histogram is in the positive area forming a signal for opening long positions. Stochastic is on the border with the overbought zone, the signal line is directed upwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 11689.2, 11792.7, 11860.0.
Support levels: 11526.3, 11425.4, 11347.8, 11228.8, 11151.2, 11047.7.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 11689.2 with target at 11860.0 and stop loss at 11600.0. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 11526.3 with target at 11425.4. Stop loss — 11580.0. Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

USD strengthened against EUR after the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision: as expected, the rate was kept at the level of 2.25%. In the accompanying statement, the regulator focused on the strength of the country's economy, confirming its intentions to gradually tighten the policy, which will inevitably lead to higher interest rates. In response, investors began to buy USD actively. In turn, EUR was under pressure of the decline in the trade surplus in Germany.

As for the macroeconomic events today, US October Producer Price Index will be released. It is predicted that the value of the indicator will remain unchanged at 0.2%.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading near the lower border of Bollinger bands, the price range is widened, indicating a possible continuation of the downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative area, gradually increasing its volumes, the signal line is directed downwards.

Resistance levels: 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1395, 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490.
Support Levels: 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1268.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1280 and stop loss 1.1360. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1430 with the target at 1.1490 and stop loss 1.1400. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. SX5E: technical analysis

SX5E, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

SX5E, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains slightly below the SMA200, and on the level with the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that turned horizontally. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is showing Bearish dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 3205.0 (local lows), 3180.0 (local lows), 3100.0 (October lows).
Resistance levels: 3268.0 (local highs), 3315.0 (local highs), 3340.0 (June lows).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating below a strong resistance near 3268.0. There is a chance of a downward correction, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3268.0 with targets at 3315.0, 3340.0 and stop-loss at 3235.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3180.0 with the target at 3100.0 and stop-loss at 3205.0. Validity – 3-5 days.