Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose markedly against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of March 26. The development of "bullish" dynamics was supported by good macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and China, as well as a disappointing consumer confidence index from the USA. Exports from China in March showed a sharp increase of 14.2% YoY after a decline by 20.8% YoY in February. Analysts were expecting the growth of 7.3% YoY. Imports for the same period declined by 7.6% YoY after declining by 5.2% in February. Thanks to that, the trade surplus sharply increased in March and amounted to USD 32.64 billion, while the forecasts suggested an increase from USD 4.08 to 7.05 billion. European data showed a decline in industrial output in February by 0.2% MoM after rising by 1.9% MoM last month. The market expected a more rapid decline of 0.6% MoM.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading against the US dollar in a positive trend, trying to recover from the ambiguous dynamics of the week before last. Despite the postponement, Brexit, of course, remains one of the main topics among investors. Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to fulfill her previous promises to form a coalition with the Labor Party in order to achieve a final agreement on the deal. Moderate support for the pound on Monday is provided by the Rightmove index on the dynamics of housing prices in the UK. In March, the index rose by 1.1% MoM after rising by 0.4% MoM last month. YoY, the indicator still shows negative dynamics, decreasing by 0.1%. On Monday, a speech of Jonathan Haskell, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, is expected, and on Tuesday, the February data on the UK labor market will be released.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar steadily strengthened against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of February 27. The Australian currency was supported by Chinese macroeconomic statistics, as well as the rather voluminous report of the RBA on financial stability. The latter, although showed the lowering of growth prospects for the Australian economy, contained words about stabilized external risks and the improved situation on the labor market. Today the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. Investors are focused on the New York FRB index on business activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the presentation of the Fed representative Charles Evans. Interesting statistics from Australia will appear on April 16, when the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Friday, marking new local highs since March 5. There were no interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan, so investors concentrated on optimistic Chinese publications and were disappointed by data from the United States. According to preliminary estimates, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in April fell from 98.4 to 96.9 points, while the forecast was for a decline only to 98.0 points. At the beginning of the week, traders are focused on the trade negotiations of Japan and the United States, which will be held in Washington.

Oil

Oil prices resumed moderate growth on April 12, receiving support from the continued supply cuts from Venezuela and Iran. The armed conflict in Libya provides additional support for quotes. On Friday, the head of the Libyan National Oil Corporation warned against the further escalation of the conflict, which, in his opinion, could completely destroy the production in the country. More confident growth on Friday was hindered by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA, reflecting their growth from 831 to 833 units.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR declined against USD, continuing the development of a poor “bearish” impulse formed at the beginning of the week, due to technical factors. In addition, investors are disappointed with the growth rate of the European economy, which is unable to reach the forecasted levels, despite the extremely soft monetary policy of the regulator. Moderate support was provided by macroeconomic statistics from the ZEW Institute. April’s German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 3.6 to 3.1 points, while the growth only to 0.8 points was expected. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period decreased from 11.1 to 5.5 points, which was worse than market expectations of 8.0 points. April’s ZEW EU Economic Sentiment also grew steadily –2.5 to 4.5 points, with a forecast of 1.2 points. Today, investors are focused on March EU data on consumer inflation and the publication of the Fed’s economic review Beige Book.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP fell against USD, receiving no significant support from the UK labor market report. The Unemployment Rate in February remained at 3.9% 3m/Yr, which coincided with market forecasts. Average Earnings without bonus decreased slightly by 0.1% to 3.4% 3m/Yr in February, as expected. March Claimant Count Change increased from 26.7 to 28.3K, while analysts had expected a decline to 20.0K. Today, during the Asian session, the pair is trading upwards, receiving minor support from Chinese publications. Investors are awaiting the release of March statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. It is predicted that the CPI will rise by 0.3% MoM, slowing down against the previous +0.5% MoM, and grow by +2.0% YoY. The market also expects the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who can tell about the plans of monetary policy in the context of new terms for Brexit.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD moved in different directions against USD, ending the day session with almost zero results. In the morning, the price was under pressure by the published RBA protocols, which focused on growing external risks and a slowdown in the growth rate of the Australian economy. With the opening of the American session, the instrument was able to quickly recoup, as USD was under pressure from industrial production statistics. In March, the index fell by 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were counting on acceleration to +0.2% MoM. Capacity Utilization fell from 79.0% to 78.8% in March, which also was worse than market forecasts of 79.1%. Today, during the Asian session, AUD is supported by strong statistics from China. March Retail Sales increased by 8.7% YoY after rising by 8.2% YoY in February. Industrial production for the same period rose by 8.5% YoY after rising by 5.3% YoY in February.

USD/JPY

USD is moving horizontally against JPY, remaining around ​​local highs since March 5. The positions of USD are under pressure, as there is a lack of strong US macroeconomic statistics on the market, and investors are awaiting the resolution of the US-China trade negotiations. In addition, the market fears harsh statements by Donald Trump, who accuses the regulator of slowing economic growth and extremely weak inflation. The President urges the Fed to resume quantitative easing. Meanwhile, traders are following US and Japanese trade negotiations. While the parties are very optimistic but no specific decisions have yet been made. Japanese exports fell by 2.4% YoY in March, which was twice as bad as the decline in February. Imports, in contrast, rose by 1.1% YoY after a decrease of 6.6% YoY in February. Due to a sharp decline in exports, the overall March trade balance increased from 334.9 to 528.5 billion JPY.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices resumed moderate growth, responding to new exacerbations in Libya and a decline in exports of petroleum products from Venezuela and Iran. The quotes, in turn, are under pressure from uncertain prospects of the OPEC+ transaction. In particular, Russia may decide to increase the rate of oil production in order to compete with the ever-increasing supplies from the United States. The further fate of the current transaction will be decided in June when the cartel gathers for the next summit. Published on the eve of the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves reflected the decline in stocks for the week of April 12 to 3.096 million barrels after rising by 4.091 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report on production and reserves from the US Department of Energy.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of April 12. However, by the close of the day session, the instrument lost most of the positions it had won. Investors were focused on European consumer inflation statistics, which managed to provide tangible support for the euro. In March, the consumer price index rose by 1.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY after rising by 0.3% MoM and 1.4% YoY in February. The core CPI in March rose by 0.8% YoY, which coincided with market expectations. Investors were also optimistic about the statistics for the Eurozone trade balance. The surplus in February rose from 17.4 to 19.5 billion euros, while analysts expected a decline to 14.7 billion. Today the instrument is relatively stable and expects new drivers to appear. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of European data on business activity in April.

GBP/USD

The pound slightly declined against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of April 8. The British currency was pressured by an uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In March, the consumer price index slowed down from 0.5% MoM to 0.2% MoM, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 0.3% MoM. YoY, inflation remained at 1.9%, while the market expected an acceleration of up to 2.0%. The retail price index was also disappointing. In March, it showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.7% MoM last month. The forecast for the indicator was 0.2% MoM. YoY, the retail price index slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.4% in March, with a forecast of 2.6% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday, having managed to update local highs of February 21. The "Australian" was supported by strong macroeconomic data from China. In March, retail sales increased by 8.7% YoY after rising by 8.2% YoY in February. Industrial production rose by 8.5% YoY against February growth of 5.3% YoY. GDP growth in Q1 2019 remained at 6.4% YoY, with the forecasts of a slowdown to 6.3% YoY. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the report on the Australian labor market in March. The unemployment rate in March rose from 4.9% to 5.0%, while the employment rate jumped sharply by 25.7K jobs, while the forecast suggested an increase of only 12K. The total employment rate in March was 48.3K after a decrease of 7.3K last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is relatively stable against the Japanese yen and has been trading near local highs since March 5. A certain pressure on the US currency on Wednesday was provided by a published economic review of the Fed, the Beige Book. The regulator again noted weak economic growth, however, some US districts reporting of accelerated growth. The labor market remains fairly stable, but there is still an acute shortage of highly skilled workers in industrial production and construction. Today, the yen shows moderate growth, receiving support from publications from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.2 to 49.5 points in April which was above average forecasts. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of data on the US retail sales for March and a block of preliminary statistics on business activity in April.

Oil

Oil prices showed an increase on April 17, but failed to consolidate on new highs and declined by the end of the day session. The quotes were supported by strong data on industrial production from China and by an unexpected decline in US oil reserves. According to a published EIA report, during the week of April 12, oil and petroleum products in the US warehouses decreased by 1.396 million barrels, while investors expected growth of 1.711 million. A slight decrease in production in the USA from 12.200 to 12.100 million barrels per day was also a positive signal.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR declined significantly against USD, renewing the local lows since April 8. The negative dynamics is due to disappointing statistics on EU business activity. April Markit Service PMI decreased from 53.3 to 52.5 points, against the expected decrease only to 53.2 points. April Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.3 points against the forecast of 51.8 points. German data were better than expected. Markit Service PMI rose from 55.4 to 55.6 points, while the market expected a decline to 55.1 points. The only exception was Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 44.1 to 44.5 points while the forecast was 45.0 points. In addition to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics, EUR was under pressure from the prospects of a new trade war between the US and the EU. Yesterday, Brussels announced the possibility of introducing response import duties on American goods worth more than $20 billion.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP fell against USD, renewing local lows since March 29. Mostly, the decline in GBP was of a technical nature, since the UK was able to support investor sentiment in the market after the publication of strong Retail Sales statistics. In March, it increased by 1.1% MoM and 6.7% YoY, which was significantly better than the February data: + 0.6% MoM and + 4.0% YoY. Analysts expected a decline by 0.3% MoM and growth by 4.6% YoY. The indicator excluding fuel sales in March increased by 1.2% MoM and 6.2% YoY, while the forecast was –0.3% MoM and + 4.0% YoY. Today, during the Asian session, GBP is trading in different directions, waiting for new drivers in the market. Trading on the last day of the week is likely to be fairly calm, as European markets are closed on the occasion of Good Friday.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD fell against USD within the correction, departing from local highs since April 17. Despite the publication of a moderately optimistic report on the Australian labor market, investors found no reason to buy AUD with the opening of European and American trading sessions. USD was supported by strong data on Retail Sales. In March, it increased by 1.6% MoM after falling by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts expected a gain of +0.9% MoM. Sales excluding cars for the same period rose by 1.2% MoM with a forecast of +0.7% MoM. The cumulative retail sales from the US Census Bureau increased in March by 1.0% MoM, after falling 0.3% MoM last month. The market expected a much more modest growth of +0.4% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD maintains the same momentum against JPY, remaining close to the local highs since December 20, 2018 and the level of 112.00. Yesterday’s US PMI data did not support USD significantly, however, it grew against the most currencies. Markit Manufacturing PMI in April did not change against the March one, remaining at the level of 52.4 points, with the forecast of growth to 52.8 points. Service PMI significantly declined from 55.3 to 52.9 points against the forecast of 55.0 points. April Composite PMI fell from 54.6 to 52.8 points.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices rose, supported by the same factors on the market. The report by the US Department of Energy reflected a steady decline in US oil reserves by 1.4 million barrels, and also recorded a slight decrease in the volume of “black gold” production in the country. The decline in supply by OPEC+ is also observed, although the market fears uncertain prospects around the extension of the deal in the current year. The price is positively affected by the news from Libya, where the internal military conflict is going, which threatens to completely stop oil production in the country. On Thursday, one day earlier than usual, Baker Hughes published a report on active oil platforms in the United States. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs fell from 833 to 825 units.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on April 19, slightly correcting after a significant decline on Thursday. The strengthening of the single currency at the end of the week is fully determined by the technical correction since the markets in Europe were closed on the occasion of the Easter holidays. The development of upward dynamics was also caused by weak macroeconomic indicators from the United States. The number of new residential houses in the United States showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM in March after a decrease of 12.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the growth by 6.5% MoM. The number of issued construction permits for the same period showed a decline of 1.7% MoM after a decrease of 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting the growth by 0.3% MoM. Today, the instrument is again trading in a downtrend, but market activity remains low.

GBP/USD

The pound shows ambiguous dynamics, remaining near local minima of March 29. Investors expect new drivers to appear on the market, as the activity of recent days remained low due to the celebration of Catholic Easter. The market still fears the development of a political crisis in the UK. After receiving a postponement from the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May had enough time to win opposition parties to her side, but not everyone in the UK Parliament is satisfied with the current situation. As it became known last weekend, the head of the Conservative Party, Graham Brady intends to seek the voluntary resignation of May. Otherwise, some parliamentarians may introduce a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is weakening against the US dollar, retreating from local highs of February 21, updated in the middle of last week. The Australian labor market report published last week did not provide any significant support for the instrument, despite the fact that a number of indicators turned out to be above analysts' forecasts. In particular, despite the expected increase in the unemployment rate in March from 4.9% to 5.0%, total employment showed an increase from 4.6K to 25.7K, which turned out to be much better than forecast (12.0K). Today, the instrument again shows a moderate decline, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Due to the Easter holidays, activity in the market will begin to recover only on Tuesday, and interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia will be published on Wednesday when data on consumer inflation for Q1 2019 will be released.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is weakening moderately against the Japanese yen, remaining near local maxima of December 20. The development of negative dynamics is supported by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In turn, the yen is stable on good data from Japan but does not receive adequate support due to moderate growth in demand for risk. Last Friday's consumer inflation data provided moderate support for the Japanese currency. The Tokyo consumer price index excluding the price of fresh food accelerated in March from 0.7% YoY to 0.8% YoY, with a stable forecast. A similar index excluding food and energy in March remained at 0.4% YoY.

Oil

Oil quotes showed strong growth on April 22. At the opening of trading, Brent crude oil jumped to USD 74 per barrel, above which the instrument was last traded in November. The reason for such an active beginning of the week were the reports that the United States will begin to impose sanctions on all countries that are still buying oil from Iran. These countries include the largest consumers, India and China. Earlier, they got a postponement, which ends on May 2. It is not yet clear exactly how the US will impose new sanctions, given the protracted trade negotiations with China, but prices may receive a powerful impetus to further growth.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a slight growth against the US dollar on April 22, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Market activity remains low due to the Easter holidays, but investors are gradually returning. They are focused on the US-EU trade conflict, which faces new risks for both economies. In addition, investors are awaiting the signing of the US-China final trade agreement, which will somewhat balance the risks in the market. On Tuesday, the market is not expecting a large amount of interesting macroeconomic statistics. Investors will be focused on the level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone in April, as well as the dynamics of housing prices and sales of new homes in the USA in March.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight decline on Monday, updating the local minima of March 11. In the absence of new drivers in the market, investors are discussing the prospects for the development of a political crisis in the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May does not leave attempts to attract parliamentarians to her side, in order to achieve approval of the current version of the agreement with the EU. It is possible that opponents of May will try to achieve a new referendum in agreement with the European Union or a repeated referendum on the country's withdrawal.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is declining against the US dollar at the beginning of the week, updating local lows of April 12. Investor activity remains quite low, so the instrument is influenced by technical factors. Published on Monday, data from the United States was mostly negative, which, however, did not prevent the pair from continuing the downward movement. Sales in the secondary housing market in the USA declined in March by 4.9% MoM after rising by 11.2% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.3% MoM. In absolute terms, sales fell from 5.48 to 5.21 million, with a forecast of 5.30 million. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the United States. Interesting data from Australia will appear on Wednesday when the RBA will publish statistics on consumer inflation for Q1 2019.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to show ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen, slightly tending down. Published at the beginning of the week, weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA does not strengthen the dollar, while the yen gets support in the thin market as "safe haven". Today, investors expect releases on retail sales and sales of new homes from the USA. Japan will publish statistics only on Wednesday, when the activity index in all sectors will be released, as well as data on leading and coincident indicators for February. On Thursday, a meeting of the Bank of Japan at an interest rate with an accompanying press conference will be held.

Oil

Oil prices rose markedly on April 22, supported by the US intention to impose sanctions on countries that import oil from Iran. Now for a number of countries, there is an exception that allows them to buy Iranian oil, but starting from May 2, this possibility will disappear, which threatens with an acute shortage in the market or new trade conflicts. Among countries that import Iranian oil, there is also China, which still cannot agree on all the details on a trade dispute with the United States. Today, investors will focus on the API report on oil reserves. The last report reflected a sharp reduction of 3.096 million barrels.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a noticeable decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of April 2. The reason for the strengthening of the "bearish" dynamics was the US decision to cancel the preferential conditions for a number of countries when buying Iranian oil. In addition, investors fear the development of a large-scale US-EU trade conflict. Today, the euro has managed to significantly strengthen, despite the fact that there was little interesting macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, the dollar received moderate support from data on the dynamics of sales of new houses. In March, the figure rose by 4.5% MoM from 0.662 to 0.692 million, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts, expecting -2.5% MoM. Preliminary statistics on the level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone turned out to be worse than expected. In April, the indicator dropped from -7.2 to -7.9 points, with an expected recovery to 7.0 points.

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar updating local lows of February 19. Market activity is gradually recovering after the Easter holidays, but investors tend to avoid risk in the face of growing uncertainty. There's still not much of macroeconomic statistics, so investors are focused on the same drivers, which for the pound is, of course, Brexit. Currently, British Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to find a compromise with Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbin, who could help May get approval for an agreement in parliament. However, there is a scenario for a new referendum on the current version of the agreement with the EU, which threatens to substantially change its conditions, which will have to be reconciled.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar weakens sharply against the US one, updating local lows of March 11. The decline in the instrument today is due to the publication of disappointing statistics on consumer inflation in Australia for Q1 2019. The index showed zero dynamics in quarterly terms and grew by 1.3% YoY, which was noticeably worse than market expectations of 0.2% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. In Q4 2018, the indicator showed a growth of 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. The RBA core CPI for the same period increased by 0.3% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, while the forecast was 0.4% QoQ and 1.7% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to develop flat dynamics with the Japanese yen, remaining close to the level of 112.00. The yen is supported by generally low demand for risk in the market. The dollar, in turn, is playing on ambiguous statistics from the construction market in March, which was marked by a sharp decline in sales of secondary housing, but signaled an increase in sales of new buildings. Investors expect new drivers to appear; one of which may be the Bank of Japan meeting on April 25.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on April 23, which was the expected market response to a sharp increase in quotes at the beginning of the week. Currently, the instrument is supported by US statements on the abolition of favorable conditions for a number of countries importing Iranian oil. Among such countries, there is China, which has already criticized the United States for such a decision. On Tuesday, the instrument was pressured by a published report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which indicated a sharp increase in stocks by 6.900 million barrels. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of the report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro finished trading on April 24 with a steady decline against the US dollar, having updated record lows since June 2017. The European currency was pressured by a weak macroeconomic publications from Germany, as well as the general strengthening of the dollar. According to the data from the IFO, the Indicator of Business Optimism in Germany in April fell from 99.6 to 99.2 points, while the forecast was 99.9 points. The Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the same period fell from 95.6 to 95.2 points, while analysts expected growth to 96.1 points. The Current Assessment Index rolled back from 103.8 to 103.3 points while the forecast was 103.6 points. Negative is added to the market from the development of the US-EU trade conflict after Trump announced the introduction of import duties, and the EU responded with symmetrical measures. However, the focus of attention is on the US-China trade conflict; in the near future, the parties should hold two new rounds of negotiations, which may end with the signing of a final agreement.

GBP/USD

The pound declined against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of February 15. The development of "bearish" dynamics was supported by macroeconomic publications from the UK. The volume of public sector net borrowings in March increased by 0.840 billion pounds, whereas previously they decreased by 0.514 billion. Analysts were expecting a decrease of -0.400 billion pounds. Yesterday, the media got information that the British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to once again seek a review of the agreement with the EU. The European Commission did not take long to respond: Jean-Claude Juncker stated that the EU would not review the deal. In his opinion, the current version of the agreement is the "best" option for both parties.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly against the US one on Wednesday, updating local lows of March 8 and again approaching a strong support level of 0.7000. The Australian currency position was strongly pressured by consumer inflation data for Q1 2019, published the day before, which was worse than analysts' expectations. Today, the instrument is expectedly traded in a flat. In Australia, markets are closed on the occasion of the celebration of the national holiday, so all investors will be focused on statistics from the United States. With the opening of the American session, data on the dynamics of orders for durable goods in March is expected to be published.

USD/JPY

The US dollar appreciably strengthened against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, interrupting the flat series since April 15. The growth of the instrument on April 24 was caused by the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan. The activity index in all industries in February showed a decline of 0.2% MoM after the zero dynamics last month. The indicator was slightly worse than market expectations of -0.1% MoM. At the same time, the index of coinciding indicators in February rose from 99.6 to 100.4 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts (98.8 points). The index of leading indicators strengthened from 96.3 to 97.1 points while the forecast was 97.4 points. Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, emphasizing the persistence of significant risks for the Japanese economy. The BoJ also slightly revised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2019 and 2020. In 2019, the Bank expects the economy to grow by 0.9% YoY, and in 2020 - by 1.0% YoY. Earlier, forecasts suggested a rise of 0.8% YoY and 0.9% YoY, respectively.

Oil

Oil prices showed a slight increase on April 24, continuing to trade at record highs. The data of a report from the US Department of Energy, which reflected a sharp increase in oil reserves for the week of April 19 by 5.5 million barrels to 460.6 million barrels, prevented a more confident strengthening yesterday. Analysts had expected the emergence of positive dynamics but hoped for growth of only 1.255 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency finished trading on Thursday with a confident decline against the US dollar, updating its record lows of May 30, 2017. The euro is still pressured by an unstable economic situation in the region. Published yesterday, the ECB bulletin pointed to a further slowdown in the economy, exacerbated by the risks of new trade wars and a general decline in world trade. Inflation in the region is also slowing down, which postpones the possible tightening of monetary policy for an indefinite period. Moreover, the regulator is now quite ready for new quantitative easing, as was mentioned on Thursday by Vice-President of the Bank, Luis de Guindos. Today, the euro is trading in an uptrend, developing a correction. On Friday, investors are focused on the annual statistics on US GDP for Q1 2019.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar updating local lows of February 15. However, by the end of the daily session, the pound managed to recover, despite the publication of optimistic macroeconomic statistics on durable goods orders in the United States. Confident support for the instrument was provided by the CBI Retail Report, which indicated a sharp increase in sales volumes in April by 13% MoM after a decline of 18% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. On Friday, investors expect the publication of BBA statistics on the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK from, as well as a CBI report on changes in the volume of industrial orders in April.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a flat dynamics on April 25, despite the fact that during the day the instrument updated local minima of January 3. On Thursday, the stock exchanges in Australia were closed due to a national holiday, so the focus was on statistics from the USA on the dynamics of orders for durable goods, which provided moderate support to USD. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. The "Australian" is slightly supported by data on the export price index. In Q1 2019, the index rose by 4.5% QoQ after rising by 4.4% QoQ, while analysts had forecast a sharp decline of 0.8% QoQ. The producer price index over the same period slowed down from 0.5% QoQ to 0.4% QoQ, which turned out to be worse than investors' expectations of 0.6% QoQ.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Thursday, leveling out all the growth attempts that had been demonstrated the day before. The yen managed to strengthen against the background of the publication of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on an interest rate. As expected, the regulator kept rates at -0.1% and signaled the preservation of a soft policy at least until the spring of 2020. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. The yen is pressured by weak data on unemployment and the dynamics of industrial output in March. In March, the unemployment rate rose from 2.3% to 2.5%, which turned out to be below market expectations of 2.4%. According to preliminary estimates, industrial output decreased by 0.9% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which was dramatically worse than the average forecast of -0.1% MoM and -0.6% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices updated local highs on April 25 but returned to the opening marks by the end of the daily session. The quotes were moderately supported by interruptions in the supply of Russian oil to Europe due to quality problems. At the same time, investors expect tougher US sanctions on Iranian oil. In particular, since May 1, a number of countries will no longer apply preferential terms that allowed them to import oil from Iran. However, Saudi Arabia has already stated that it is able to compensate for the decline in supply. On Friday, a Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US is expected.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency has updated local lows against the US dollar last Friday, but managed to finish the afternoon session with growth. The instrument was under pressure from strong macroeconomic statistics on the US GDP for Q1 2019. According to preliminary estimates, the US economy showed an increase of 3.2% YoY against the growth of 2.2% YoY over the past period. Analysts' forecasts were very modest and assumed growth of only 2.0% YoY. On the other hand, the GDP price index for the same period showed an increase of only 0.6% YoY, with a forecast of 1.3% YoY, which indicates that the country's low inflation rates remain. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, developing corrective dynamics. Investors are focused on statistics on business sentiment in the euro area. After American session starts, Personal Income and Personal Spending data for February and March will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight increase against the US dollar on Friday and maintains a weak upward trend during today's Asian session. The growth of the instrument is largely technical in nature, since the factors putting pressure on the British currency are still strong. Theresa May is negotiating with the Labor Party, but so far there has been no noticeable progress. The dialogue will continue this week, but the British Prime Minister has to hurry, as the level of political pressure is growing steadily. Today, investors do not expect the publication of significant data from the UK, so they will focus on statistics from the US and the euro area instead.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows rather active correctional growth, offsetting a strong decline of the pair at the beginning of the last trading week. Last Friday, the growth of the instrument was ambiguous, which was caused by the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia. The Export Price Index in Q1 2019 rose by 4.5% QoQ after rising by 4.4% QoQ in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index slowed down from 2.0% YoY to 1.9% YoY over the same period. On a quarterly basis, the indicator rose by 0.4% QoQ, while the forecast was 0.6% QoQ. During today's Asian session, the Australian dollar is also traded with an upward trend, despite the fact that there are no new growth drivers at the market. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on Personal Spending and Income in the US for March.

USD/JPY

The Japanese currency returned to the flat dynamics against the US dollar, noticeably departing from the local highs, updated on April 24. Pressure on the yen was caused by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan last Friday. The Unemployment Rate in March unexpectedly rose from 2.3% to 2.5%, while analysts expected growth to only 2.4%. The data on industrial production were also disappointing. According to preliminary data, in March, production volumes decreased by 0.9% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations (–0.1% MoM and –0.6% YoY). Tokyo Core CPI supported the yen moderately. The index grew by 1.3% YoY in April, although investors did not expect any changes in the previous value of +1.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices fell sharply on April 26, retreating from record highs updated the day before. The decrease in the instrument proceeded against the background of interruptions in the oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which caused an increase in concerns about the shortage of raw materials in the market earlier. Analytical comments helped the instrument, convincing investors that refining companies have enough oil reserves to avoid any distortions. In addition, Russia is set to restore supplies of "black gold" today. Last Friday, the report by Baker Hughes, which reflected a sharp reduction in the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US from 825 to 805, also supported the quotes.