Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, retreating to its lows since March 12, under pressure from technical factors and a further decline in investor interest in risk amid growing uncertainty in the market. In particular, traders have ambiguously reacted to the situation with Brexit in the UK after the British parliament adopted the amendment and took control of the country's exit from the EU. It is expected that today, in the parliament a vote on a number of issues with a discussion of possible options for the development of the situation will be held. Meanwhile, April GfK German Consumer Climate fell from 10.7 to 10.4 points against the forecasts of growth to 10.8 points, which was the lowest level since May 2017. During the Asian session on March 27, EUR is also weakening. Today, the investors are focused on the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and a number of other regulator’s representatives, such as Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschlager, Yves Mersch, and Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

GBP continues to trade ambiguously, sharply reacting to any changes around Brexit. Earlier this week, British parliamentarians adopted an amendment to the law, which allowed parliament to take control of the Brexit process (previously it was held by the government of Theresa May). Now the parliament can feel lighter and discuss the most varied exit scenarios. However, this can only help to clarify the preferences of parliamentarians, while there is no time and possibilities left to coordinate new changes with the EU. The UK must approve a version of the agreement by the end of the week; otherwise, on April 12 it will have to leave the EU without a deal.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD rose steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 21, after the publication of poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Building Permits decreased by 1.6% MoM in February after decreasing by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.6% MoM. Housing Starts index also fell from 1.273 million to 1.162 million in February, which was worse than the forecast of 1.213 million. March Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased from 16 to 10 points, while the forecast was 12 points. However, today during the Asian session, AUD is weakening, quickly losing positions gained yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from statistics from China, indicating a sharp decline in profits of a number of large Chinese enterprises in January-February by 14%. The profit of large industrial enterprises decreased by 24.2% over the same period.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, partially balancing a sharp decline at the end of last week. The emergence of poor US macroeconomic statistics and the overall low level of traders’ interest in risk did not support JPY. Instead, investors focused on a summary of updated forecasts from the Bank of Japan. The document is of a generalizing nature and is published once a year after the next meeting of the regulator on interest rate issues. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a target inflation rate of 2%, which is one of the key parameters in choosing the vector of monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator devoted a significant part of the report to external economic risks, noting the slowdown in China’s economy and the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Oil

This week, oil prices are rising and approaching local highs, renewed a week ago, supported by market uncertainty, as well as interruptions in oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and several other countries. Yesterday’s weekly report of the American Institute of oil reserves in the United States reflected the growth of reserves by 1.927 million barrels at March 22. The previous report indicated a reduction in reserves by 2.133 million barrels. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on energy reserves from the US Department of Energy. If the official statistic confirms the growth of the indicator, the quotes may be slightly corrected downwards.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Friday, EUR declined steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 8. The tense situation around Brexit and the protracted US-China trade negotiations continue to exert considerable pressure on the EUR. However, the course is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Retail sales rose by 0.9% MoM in February after rising by 2.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, sales growth accelerated to 4.7% YoY from the previous +3.1% YoY, which was significantly better than market forecasts +2.8% YoY. March Unemployment Rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% as expected, while the Unemployed Number fell by 7K after falling by 20K in February. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is trading upwards, and investors are awaiting the publication of statistics on EU March Consumer Inflation. The instrument is also supported by data from China. March Caixin PMI index strengthened from 49.9 to 50.8 points, which was noticeably better than analysts' expectations.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading in different directions, renewing the lows since March 11. On Friday, UK macroeconomic statistics provided some support for the course, while tensions around Brexit did not allow the instrument to grow more confidently. 2018 Q4 GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which was slightly better than the market forecast +0.2% QoQ and +1.3% YoY. On March 29, another vote on Brexit deal was taken in the country's parliament. Despite all the efforts of Theresa May and the proximity of the deadlines set by the EU, the parliamentarians rejected the document again, which increases the risks of exit under the “hard” scenario. The country will have to leave the EU on April 12 if the agreement is not approved.

AUD/USD

On Friday, AUD rose moderately against USD, being corrected after a steady decline in the middle of the week. The course was supported by poor macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as the expectation of a positive outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. Today, during the Asian session, which opened with an upward gap, the instrument is trading in different directions. A positive gap was due to the PRC decision to postpone the introduction of new import duties on a number of American goods and strong data from China. Thus, March Service PMI rose from 54.3 to 54.8 points, while the forecast was 54.1 points. The March NBS Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 49.2 to 50.5 points. Analysts predicted growth only to 49.5 points.

USD/JPY

USD continues to grow moderately against JPY, renewing its highs since March 20. Last Friday, the market received a fairly large number of key macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the United States. Japanese data pleased traders with a confident increase in the Tokyo CPI from +0.6% YoY to +0.9% YoY but disappointed with a slowdown in the growth of Retail Sales and Industrial Production in annual terms. Statistics from the United States reflected the continued growth in New Home Sales in February and an increase in Consumer Confidence in March. Among the negative aspects are poor statistics on Personal Income and Expenditures of citizens in January-February, which was worse than market forecasts. Today, during the Asian session, JPY is moderately supported by statistics on the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. In March, the figure rose from 48.9 to 49.2 points, with the forecast of the preservation of the value.

Oil

On Friday, oil prices rose, renewing record highs since November 13, 2018. US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the policy of OPEC+, aimed at a systematic reduction in oil production, significantly support the instrument. US pressure on the Venezuelan energy source leads to a gradual abandonment of it in a number of other countries, in particular, in Japan. Baker Hughes report on the active oil platforms also had a positive effect on quotes. During the week, the number of drilling rigs in the United States of America decreased from 824 to 816 units, which was the sixth decline in a row.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR continues to decline against USD, renewing its lows since March 8. The instrument is under pressure from poor macroeconomic statistics from Europe and uncertain prospects around the Brexit process. Yesterday, investors were disappointed by March Markit manufacturing PMI, which fell sharply from 49.3 to 47.5 points, almost coinciding with analysts' forecasts of 47.6 points. According to preliminary estimates, CPI slowed down from +1.5% YoY to +1.4% YoY for the same period, while the forecasts did not suggest any changes. Core CPI rose by only 0.8% YoY in March after rising 1.0% YoY last month. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is also trading within a downtrend, and investors are awaiting the publication of European PPI statistics and a speech by ECB representative Peter Praet.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP rose, being corrected after a steady decline last week, due macroeconomic statistics from the UK and the United States of America, in addition, investors continued to monitor the situation around Brexit. March Markit manufacturing PMI rose from 52.1 to 55.1 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 51.0 points. US index data were not so straightforward. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 54.2 to 55.3 points but Markit PMI indicated a decline from 53.0 to 52.4 points, which was worse than market expectations of 52.5 points. As for the situation around Brexit, there is no progress here. On Monday, the British parliament rejected all four alternatives, and earlier, on Friday, rejected the current version of the agreement with the EU for the third time. The situation leads to the fact that Britain will have to leave the EU on April 12 without a deal but some analysts expect that if the final transaction is not agreed, the government will have to ask for a significant postponement of the deadlines.

AUD/USD

AUD started trading a new week on Forex with a slight upward gap, which was caused by optimistic macroeconomic publications from China. In addition, Beijing has suspended the introduction of new import duties on a number of American goods, which indicates that in the process of trade negotiations with the United States there has been some progress. At the moment, the parties are preparing for the next round of talks to be held in Washington. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is declining after the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting on interest rates. As expected, the regulator left the rate at 1.5%, noting that the current level is optimal for maintaining the economic situation in the country. The RBA complained about the growing external economic risks affecting the growth dynamics of the national economy again. The regulator has practically achieved the planned results on inflation, and in 2020, it expects consumer price growth over the target level of 2%.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, renewing its highs since March 20, with the support of poor macroeconomic data from Japan. Thus, 2019 Q1 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index decreased from 24 to 21 points, while Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index fell from 15 to 8 points over the same period, while investors expected a decline only to 12 points. At the same time, March Nikkei manufacturing PMI rose from 48.9 to 49.2 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts but still indicates negative trends in production. American statistics also was ambiguous. In particular, investors were disappointed with the data on Retail Sales. In February, the indicator fell by 0.2% MoM after rising 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts predicted growth by +0.3% MoM.

Oil

At the beginning of the new week, oil prices rose steadily, renewing its highs since November 2018. The quotes are still supported by a significant reduction in production, which was achieved thanks to the efforts of OPEC+ and, in particular, Saudi Arabia, which has noticeably exceeded its supply reduction plan. The development of "bullish" dynamics was also due to US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil. Today, the focus of investors is the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves for the week of March 25.

LiteForex. Morning Market Review


EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, having corrected upwards after a 6-day downward rally, which led to the update of the local lows of March 7. EUR was supported by macroeconomic data from the Eurozone published on Wednesday. The Markit Services PMI in March rose from 52.8 to 53.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 52.7 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 51.9 to 51.6 points, which nevertheless turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.3 points. Retail sales in the Eurozone in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, which is higher than market expectations (0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY). In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the release of the ADP report on employment. According to it, in March the figure increased by only 129K against the expected growth of 170K and growth of 198K last month. Today, traders are focused on the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, updating local highs of March 28. Despite the serious problems around the Brexit process, investors are optimistic about the prospects for a new delay. Yesterday, Teresa May announced her readiness to hold a series of negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to agree on a joint action plan. This decision has already caused criticism from the Conservative party members, which could potentially lead to an exacerbation of the political situation. However, May now cares only about the Brexit, and she is trying hard to prevent the country from leaving without a deal. Yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the EU would not agree to a new postponement for the UK and that the agreement must be approved by April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an increase against the US dollar on April 3, offsetting the decrease in the instrument the day before. Growth was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as improved prospects for concluding the US-China trade agreement. Retail sales in Australia in February showed a growth of 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.2% MoM. AUD was supported by an unexpected increase in the trade surplus. In February, it reached 4.801 billion Australian dollars against the previous 4.351 billion. Analysts had expected a decline to 3.800 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow uncertainly against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 20. The development of "bullish" dynamics in the instrument is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk amid optimistic prospects for concluding the US-China trade deal. The macroeconomic background from the United States is often quite weak, but Japan cannot boast of strong publications. Markit Services PMI was published yesterday. In March, the indicator fell stronger than forecast, from 52.3 to 52.0 points. Disappointing statistics on employment in the private sector and business activity indices came from the USA. The ISM Services index in March fell from 59.7 to 56.1 points, while the forecast was 58.0 points. A similar index from Markit slowed down from 56.0 to 55.3 points, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 54.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices slightly corrected on Wednesday, departing from local maxima amid the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. According to it, the US crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week of March 29 rose from 2.800 million barrels to 7.238 million, while analysts expected a decline by about 0.5 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on April 4, breaking the correctional growth that was formed the day before. The negative dynamics was supported by weak macroeconomic data on the volume of orders in the production sector from Germany, as well as published minutes of the ECB meeting. In February, the volume of orders collapsed by 4.2% MoM and by 8.4% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations + 0.3% MoM and -5.4% YoY. In January, the indicator decreased by 2.1% MoM and 3.9% YoY. The published protocols once again reflected the "dovish" position of the ECB. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi, decided to postpone a possible rate hike for next year, noting that a long period of low interest rates could adversely affect the stability of the region’s banking system, but at present these risks are acceptable. Additional pressure on the euro has an uncertain situation around Brexit and the proximity of the EU summit on April 10, at which the fate of the postponement for the UK will be decided.

GBP/USD

The British pound dropped significantly on Thursday, offsetting almost all of the growth since the beginning of the week. The instrument correction is largely due to technical factors, since the situation with Brexit, which is the main source of uncertainty, has changed slightly. Yesterday, the Parliament approved a bill on a new postponement, but there is still no consensus on this issue within the EU. Moreover, earlier the head of the European Commission announced that the UK would not receive new deferments and would have to leave the European Union on April 12 if the current version of the agreement was not approved. The fate of Britain is likely to be decided at the EU summit on April 10. Until that time, Theresa May has the opportunity to create a coalition with the opposition Labor Party to work out joint decisions on Brexit and to get approval for an agreement in parliament.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to grow moderately against the US one, supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from China and Australia. Optimistic signals from the US-China trade negotiations also make a positive impact. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said at a meeting with Vice Premier of the PRC State Council Liu He that the final agreement could be signed within a month. Both participants noted that the negotiations are very optimistic and at the current time have managed to achieve "tremendous progress". Today, the Australian currency is supported by the previously published AiG activity index in the construction sector. In March its value increased rapidly from 43.8 to 57.2 points. Also, investors are awaiting the publication of the March report on the US labor market.

USD/JPY

The US dollar maintains an upward trend against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 15. The dollar is supported by data on applications for unemployment benefits published on Thursday. For the week of March 29, the number of Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 212K to 202K, with a forecast of growth to 216K. The number of secondary applications for the week of March 22 also decreased from 1.755 million to 1.717 million. The forecast assumed a decline only to 1.750 million. Today, the development of "bullish" dynamics is due to weak statistics from Japan. The index of wage changes in February dropped sharply by 0.8% YoY after falling by 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.8% YoY. Household expenses in February slowed from 2.0% YoY to 1.7% YoY, while the forecast was 2.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices are consolidating at the end of the week, but remain close to USD 70 per barrel. Quotes are pressured by published statistics from the United States, which indicated a sharp increase in stocks. In addition, production in the USA continues to increase. However, the actions of OPEC+ and the improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade dispute provide significant support to the instrument. Today, investors are focused on the March report on the US labor market, which may not meet all market expectations. In addition, the Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US is to be published.

LiteForex. Morning Market Review


EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, having corrected upwards after a 6-day downward rally, which led to the update of the local lows of March 7. EUR was supported by macroeconomic data from the Eurozone published on Wednesday. The Markit Services PMI in March rose from 52.8 to 53.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 52.7 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 51.9 to 51.6 points, which nevertheless turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.3 points. Retail sales in the Eurozone in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, which is higher than market expectations (0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY). In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the release of the ADP report on employment. According to it, in March the figure increased by only 129K against the expected growth of 170K and growth of 198K last month. Today, traders are focused on the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, updating local highs of March 28. Despite the serious problems around the Brexit process, investors are optimistic about the prospects for a new delay. Yesterday, Teresa May announced her readiness to hold a series of negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to agree on a joint action plan. This decision has already caused criticism from the Conservative party members, which could potentially lead to an exacerbation of the political situation. However, May now cares only about the Brexit, and she is trying hard to prevent the country from leaving without a deal. Yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the EU would not agree to a new postponement for the UK and that the agreement must be approved by April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an increase against the US dollar on April 3, offsetting the decrease in the instrument the day before. Growth was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as improved prospects for concluding the US-China trade agreement. Retail sales in Australia in February showed a growth of 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.2% MoM. AUD was supported by an unexpected increase in the trade surplus. In February, it reached 4.801 billion Australian dollars against the previous 4.351 billion. Analysts had expected a decline to 3.800 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow uncertainly against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 20. The development of "bullish" dynamics in the instrument is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk amid optimistic prospects for concluding the US-China trade deal. The macroeconomic background from the United States is often quite weak, but Japan cannot boast of strong publications. Markit Services PMI was published yesterday. In March, the indicator fell stronger than forecast, from 52.3 to 52.0 points. Disappointing statistics on employment in the private sector and business activity indices came from the USA. The ISM Services index in March fell from 59.7 to 56.1 points, while the forecast was 58.0 points. A similar index from Markit slowed down from 56.0 to 55.3 points, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 54.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices slightly corrected on Wednesday, departing from local maxima amid the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. According to it, the US crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week of March 29 rose from 2.800 million barrels to 7.238 million, while analysts expected a decline by about 0.5 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose significantly against the US dollar on Monday, marking a new local maximum since March 27. The growth was mainly due to technical factors, while macroeconomic statistics from Europe remained ambiguous. February data from Germany indicated a sharp decline in imports and exports. Imports slowed down by 1.6% MoM after rising by 1.4% MoM last month. Exports collapsed by 1.3% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM. However, due to a sharp decline in imports, it was possible to achieve an increase in the trade surplus from 18.6 billion to 18.7 billion euros, while analysts expected a decline to EUR 17.0 billion. Today, the euro is trading with a slight "bullish" margin. It is likely that the dynamics of trading on Tuesday will remain moderate, since interesting macroeconomic publications are not planned. Investors are focused on Wednesday when the ECB’s interest rate decision is published and the EU Brexit summit begins.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, awaiting positive outcomes of the EU summit, which will be held on April 10. To date, Teresa May has not been able to get closer to the approval of the current agreement in Parliament, so everyone is only betting on the postponement of the terms of Brexit. Yesterday, the House of Commons approved a bill that bans the "tough" Brexit, that is, the country's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. Previously, this bill was approved in the House of Lords. However, in the matter of postponement, everything will depend on the EU, and not on the UK, since the consent of all the member countries is necessary to change the deadlines. On Tuesday, Teresa May will hold a series of meetings with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron and try to convince them to give a longer respite.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened markedly against the US dollar on Monday, receiving support against the background of the development of corrective sentiment on the US currency. The macroeconomic statistics published yesterday did not significantly support any of the currencies. The ANZ job vacancy rate in Australia in March fell sharply by 1.7% MoM after falling by 0.8% MoM last month. American statistics pointed to a reduction in production orders by 0.5% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Today, AUD is trading in an uptrend, receiving support from macroeconomic statistics. The volume of mortgage loans in February rose by 2.0% after declining by 2.5% last month. Analysts expected -2.0%. Investment borrowing for home construction in February also rose by 2.6% MoM after a decrease of 2.3% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is falling against the Japanese yen, retreating from local highs of March 15. At the same time, publications from Japan strengthen the yen a little. On Monday, investors were disappointed with data on the consumer confidence index, which fell in March from 41.5 to 40.5 points, while the forecast was for growth to 42.3 points. The Eco Watchers current situation index in March fell from 47.5 to 44.8 points, which was worse than market expectations of 46.7 points. The development index for the same period adjusted from 48.9 to 48.6 points (forecast 49.3 points).

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow steadily, updating record highs. Brent crude updated its highs on November 12, receiving support from the escalation of the conflict in Libya and a confident reduction in oil supplies under the leadership of OPEC+. Additional support for the instrument is provided by continued US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil. Today, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of April 5. Recall that the last API report reflected growth of 2.963 million barrels, which was later confirmed by steady growth in stocks according to the US Department of Energy.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, retreating from local highs of March 27. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics were the statements of US President Donald Trump about the readiness to impose duties on goods from the EU worth USD 11 billion. In his speech, Trump referred to the WTO report, according to which European Union subsidies to Airbus caused damage to the US economy. Immediately after the speech, it became known that the European Commission had begun to develop a response, which may cause a new trade war. The US trade dispute with China has not yet been crowned with the signing of a final agreement, but, according to Trump's assurances, this may take place by the end of April. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, and investors are awaiting the publication of the ECB's interest rate decision with the accompanying press conference of Mario Draghi. Also, on Wednesday, an extraordinary EU summit on Brexit will be held.

GBP/USD

The pound is trading ambiguously against the US dollar, remaining close to the level of 1.3000. Investors are waiting for a resolution of the impasse with Brexit on Wednesday, at an EU summit devoted entirely to this problem. The UK will receive a delay either until June 30, as requested by Teresa May, or till the end of the year, as suggested by the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk. Also on Wednesday, a block of interesting macroeconomic statistics is expected, namely data on industrial output, the index of services, and the growth rate of the UK economy in February (on a monthly basis).

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a decline against the US on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day updated local maxima of March 21. Moderate support was provided by strong data on the housing market. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in February rose by 2.6% MoM after declining by 2.3% MoM last month. The volume of mortgage loans issued in February rose by 2.0% MoM, contrary to forecasts of a decline by 2.0% MoM. Today, AUD began with a decline but managed to recover after the publication of Westpac consumer sentiment and the speech of the RBA Deputy Head, Guy Debelle. In April, the confidence index rose sharply by 1.9% MoM after falling by 4.8% MoM last month. Debelle's speech was of a general nature and did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. However, the official again complained about external economic risks, in particular, at the slowdown of the Chinese economy and noted a weaker growth of the Australian economy, which does not correspond to forecasts of the second half of 2018.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The yen is supported by the risks of the US-EU trade conflict, despite the fact that the conflict with China has not been finally resolved. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions due to the emergence of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and the expectation of a speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. The volume of bank lending in Japan in March increased by 2.4% YoY, which was better than forecasts, suggesting a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.0% YoY. The demand for machine-building products in February showed an increase of 1.8% MoM against expectations of 2.5% MoM. In annual terms, orders accelerated the decline from -2.9% to -5.5% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of -5.2% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed correctional dynamics on April 9, retreating from the five-month highs amid Russia's statements about the further decline in production. In particular, Russia may consider the possibility of increasing production after the next OPEC meeting, as circumstances require further reduction of reserves. Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country does not support an uncontrolled rise in oil prices and that the current prices for commodities are quite acceptable. Quotes were also pressured by the American Petroleum Institute report, published yesterday. For the week of April 5, oil reserves in the United States increased by 4.091 million barrels after rising by 2.963 million over the previous period.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR showed growth against USD on Wednesday, reaching a new local maximum since March 26. However, the trading was ambiguous, which was caused by the publication of the ECB decision and the subsequent press conference of Mario Draghi. As expected, the rates were left unchanged and would not change until the end of the year. Draghi’s comments turned out to be full of negativity, which provoked a sharp decline in the euro immediately after the speech. However, the head of the ECB focused only on the growth of external risks, which do not allow recovery in economic growth in the region in the near future. The euro was supported on Wednesday by the successful completion of an emergency EU summit, at which the leaders of the European Union and the United Kingdom managed to agree on a new postponement for Brexit.

GBP/USD

The British currency showed moderate growth on April 10, receiving support from macroeconomic publications from the UK. But the main "bullish" news for the pound was the approval of a new postponement for Brexit at an emergency EU summit. Now the deadline is October 31, and the UK has the right to both ratify the withdrawal agreement and refuse Brexit altogether. Macroeconomic publications showed growth in the UK industrial output in February by 0.6% MoM and 0.1% YoY, which was significantly better than analysts' forecasts of 0.1% MoM and -0.9% YoY. Manufacturing production increased by 0.9% MoM and 0.6% YoY, which also exceeded market expectations of 0.2% MoM and -0.7% YoY. UK GDP growth in February slowed from 0.5% MoM to 0.2% MoM, with the forecast of 0.0% MoM.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth against the US one on Wednesday, updating local highs of February 27. It was supported by strong macroeconomic data from Australia on consumer confidence, as well as the agreement on a new postponement for Brexit. Westpac Consumer Sentiment showed an increase of 1.9% in April against a decrease of 4.8% last month, which was significantly better than the average forecast. In turn, the macroeconomic statistics from the United States was ambiguous. Consumer price index excluding food and energy in March increased by 0.1% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY. The general inflation rate in March, according to the consumer price index, increased from 1.5% to 1.9% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar closed Wednesday's trading with a decline against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of April 1. The "bearish" dynamics is promoted by not very strong macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as by the general decline in risk investors. However, publications from Japan also were ambiguous. In particular, investors were disappointed with the release of data on the demand for machine-building products. In February, orders rose by 1.8% MoM against the expected growth of 2.5% MoM. YoY, stagnation is still observed: -5.5% against -2.9% last month. Today, the instrument shows a long-awaited correction, partly due to the new postponement for Brexit.

Oil

Oil prices showed an increase on Wednesday, having updated record highs since November 8. Curiously, the growth of quotes was observed amid a sharp increase in oil and petroleum stocks in the United States. According to a report from the Department of Energy, reserves for the week of April 5 rose by 7.029 million barrels after rising by 7.238 million over the previous period. Analysts were counting on a much more modest increase of 2.294 million barrels. The negative effect of such an increase in oil reserves was offset by a significant decrease in gasoline stocks by 7.7 million barrels to 229.1 million, which turned out to be noticeably better than market expectations. Quotes were also supported by the published OPEC report, which, among other things, indicated a sharp decline in production volumes in Venezuela amid power outages and the US sanctions.

LiteForex. Morning Market Review


EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, returning to the levels of the opening of the trading session on April 10, under pressure from technical factors. In addition, the “bullish” impulse associated with the extension of the Brexit terms is noticeably reduced. The course was also negatively affected by poor Chinese consumer inflation data. In March, CPI fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 1.0% MoM in February. Analysts had expected a decrease of only 0.2% MoM. Statistics from Germany did not have a noticeable effect on the EUR, as it fully met market expectations. Inflation rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY in March, which also coincided with the data of the previous month. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is steadily growing. Traders are focused on EU February statistics on industrial production, as well as a block of March statistics on imports and exports from China.

GBP/USD

GBP against USD is consolidating near the level of 1.3000 under pressure of ambiguous macroeconomic publications and the risks of a political crisis in the UK. Yesterday, the EU and the UK managed to agree on a new long-term delay, which should help London achieve a final agreement in parliament. However, Teresa May quickly loses her supporters. In addition, the EU has given Britain a certain amount of freedom in the matter of the possible abolition of Brexit. May’s political opponents of May, who are in favor of holding a second referendum, may take advantage of it.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD dropped significantly against USD, retreating from its highs since February 27, renewed the day before. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was promoted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as a number of positive data from the United States of America. Investors were optimistic about the American data block on producer price dynamics. Excluding food products and energy, PPI rose by 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY in March against expected growth of +0.3% MoM and +1.9% YoY. Additional support for USD was provided by Initial Jobless Claims. As of April 5, the figure dropped from 204K to 196K, contrary to forecasts of growth to 211K.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose significantly against the JPY, balancing the decline since the beginning of the week, with the support of US optimistic macroeconomic statistics on industrial inflation and jobless claims data. Also on the market, there is some growth in investor interest in risk, since at least one negative factor was eliminated. EU granted the UK with a new delay, which allowed the Kingdom to avoid secession from the EU under the “hard” scenario. Today, the investors are focused on Chinese import and export statistics, as well as the American University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April. It is predicted that the indicator can be corrected from 98.4 to 98.0 points, which will have a noticeable pressure on USD.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices fell, retreating from record highs. The dynamic was caused by a technical correction at the end of the week; however, there are enough fundamental reasons for the decline. In particular, investors are concerned about a sharp increase in the volume of crude oil reserves in the United States, which, coupled with a record volume of oil production of 12.2 million barrels per day, creates significant risks for quotations. A more confident downward correction is currently hampered by an active OPEC+ policy and US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. Today, investors will wait for Baker Hughes' report on active oil platforms.