Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR rose against USD on Monday, continuing to develop the correctional momentum that was formed at the end of the last trading week. The growth of the euro proceeded against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. Business and Consumer Survey in April showed the decrease from 105.6 to 104.0 points, with the forecast of a decline only to 105.0 points. Business Climate indicator decreased from 0.54 to 0.42 points for the same period, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts of 0.49 points. Industrial Sentiment indicator decreased from –1.6 to –4.1 points, with the forecast of –2.0 points. Only Services Sentiment exceeded the expectations. In April, the indicator remained at the same level of 11.5 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 11.1 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading in different directions, feeling the pressure of weak macroeconomic statistics from China and awaiting the publication of preliminary data on euro area's GDP for Q1 2019.

GBP/USD

The British pound has been trading with a moderate increase, gradually recovering from a downward rally since April 16. The growth of the pair relies mainly on technical factors, while the fundamental reasons for its further weakening remain. Theresa May cannot yet reach a compromise in negotiations with the Labor Party, but the market does not lose optimism. Meanwhile, the media got the information that the majority of Scotland residents can stand for independence if Great Britain has to leave the EU without an agreement. However, "hard" Brexit is still perceived as an extreme measure, and the British Parliament recently approved a bill completely prohibiting the state from leaving the EU without a deal. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a moderate growth. The pound reacted negatively to the publication of Gfk Consumer Confidence index and the release of Chinese statistics, but remains fairly stable.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar finished trading on Monday with moderate growth, which, however, did not lead to an update of the local highs of last Friday. The controversial macroeconomic statistics from the United States contributed to the growth of the instrument, as well as the general correctional sentiment with which investors approached the new week in the market. Today, the pair is trading in different directions, reacting to the publication of weak data from China. Non-Manufacturing PMI in China fell from 54.8 to 54.3 points in April, with the forecast of 54.5 points. Manufacturing PMI of NBS in April decreased from 50.5 to 50.1 points, with the forecast of increase to 50.7 points. Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell in April from 50.8 to 50.2 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 51.0 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen on Monday, but returned to a decline during the Asian session on April 30. Yesterday's statistics from the US failed to provide significant support to the USD. Personal Income of US citizens indicator in March increased by only 0.1% MoM, slowing down from the previous 0.2% MoM, while analysts expected growth of 0.4% MoM. Personal Spending for the same period accelerated from 0.1% MoM to 0.9% MoM with the forecast of 0.7% MoM. The increase in spending may have a positive effect on inflationary dynamics; however, investors are not inclined to consider a one-time increase in the indicator as a trend.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, having regained part of the lost positions after a sharp decline last Friday. More confident correction is hampered by the pressure that US President Donald Trump puts on OPEC. On Friday, he said that he personally turned to OPEC with a demand to reduce prices and increase oil supplies to the market. It is not yet clear how the cartel will respond to the repeated demands of the US President, but there are still plans to increase the total production. A number of analysts believe that Saudi Arabia may increase the production of "black gold" in May to compensate for the deficit from Iranian oil. At the same time, the OPEC+ agreement is still in force and allows maintaining an approximate balance of supply and demand in the market.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session on May 6, the European currency is trading with a rise against the US dollar, trying to develop a "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Euro growth on Friday was facilitated by strong statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. CPI rose in April by 1.7% YoY against a growth of 1.4% YoY last month. Analysts had expected growth by 1.6% YoY only. Core CPI for the same period strengthened by 1.2% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY. The indicator was better than expected +1.0% YoY. Minor support for the European currency today is provided by statistics from China. Caixin Non-Manufacturing PMI index rose from 54.4 to 54.5 points in April, while experts expected it to decline to 54.3 points. On Monday, the market is waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on business activity and retail sales in the euro area. Interesting statistics from the US are expected to be few, so investors will follow the development of trade negotiations with China, a new round of which is scheduled for May 8 in Washington.

GBP/USD

GBP grew sharply against USD on Friday updating local highs of April 4. The growth of the British currency was facilitated by the correctional sentiment towards USD against the backdrop of publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. April report on the labor market, published on May 3, pointed to an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.6%. Nonfarm Payrolls were better than expectations as well. Outside of agriculture, the US economy created 263K new jobs after growth of the figure to 189K in March. The forecast assumed growth by only 185K. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings in April showed an increase of 3.2% YoY against the forecast of +3.3% YoY. Participation Rate declined from 63.0% to 62.8%, with the forecast of 62.9%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in April declined from 56.1 to 55.5 points with the forecast of 57.2 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is growing moderately during the Asian session on May 6 after the opening with a negative gap. Last Friday, the pair managed to show quite active growth, despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics from Australia remained disappointing. The published data reflected a sharp decline in the number of building approvals issued in March by 15.5% MoM. In annual terms, the index was –27.3% YoY. Today, the Australian dollar receives moderate support from the Chinese statistics on business activity, but again is under pressure from weak data from Australia. TD Securities inflation rate in April increased by 0.2% MoM, slowing down from the previous +0.4% MoM. ANZ Job Advertisements in April fell by 0.1% MoM after declining by 1.7% MoM in March. Investors are focused on tomorrow's RBA meeting on the interest rate, as well as a block of statistics on imports/exports and retail sales in March.

USD/JPY

The US dollar opened with a confident downward gap against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of March 28. Instrument activity remains low due to public holidays in Japan; therefore, the main focus of attention is on data from the United States. A report published on Friday on the US labor market failed to provide significant support to the dollar, despite a number of strong publications that turned out to be better than expected. The alarming news around the US-China trade negotiations, which are currently at the final stage, is contributing to the growth in demand for a "safe" yen. The next round of talks should be held on May 8 in Washington, but investors fear that China may refuse to participate in them because of the harsh remarks of Donald Trump, who promised to increase import duties on a number of Chinese goods from 10 to 25% from May 10.

Oil

Oil prices weaken at the beginning of the new week. Brent crude oil opened with a confident downward gap, updating the local lows of April 4. The negative reaction of the market is associated with growing fears about the progress of the US-China negotiations, which are again under threat after the harsh statements of Donald Trump. Additional pressure on Friday came from the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs increased from 805 to 807 units, which is especially alarming, given the continued growth in oil production in the United States. Last week, the figure reached a record 12.3 million barrels per day.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-07 08:51 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR showed a moderate increase against USD on Monday, having developed a correctional impetus formed at the end of the previous trading week. Moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Europe supported the instrument. Markit Services PMI in April rose from 52.5 to 52.8 points, although analysts did not expect any changes in the value of the indicator. Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.9 to 52.8 points. Retail sales also turned out better than expected. In March, sales showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and strengthened by 1.9% in annual terms (with a forecast of –0.1% MoM and +1.8% YoY). On Tuesday, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on factory orders in Germany for March. In addition, on May 8, the market will closely monitor the US-PRC trade negotiations, which are in jeopardy following the harsh statements by Donald Trump.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell against the US dollar on Monday, having corrected after active growth last Friday. On Monday, the UK markets were closed due to bank holidays, so investors focused on the failure of Theresa May's negotiations with the Labor Party, as well as on the aggravation of the situation in US-China trade relations. Last weekend, Donald Trump threatened to introduce additional import duties on Chinese goods, hoping in this way to speed up the process of concluding a final agreement. Experts believe that being under pressure, China may completely cancel the next stage of negotiations, which threatens a new round of deterioration in the global economy. On Tuesday, two representatives of the Bank of England, Jon Cunliffe and Andy Haldane, are expected to speak in the UK.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows strong growth against the US currency during the Asian session on May 7, updating local highs of the beginning of the month. Macroeconomic statistics published in Australia provides moderate support for the instrument. The volume of retail sales in March increased by 0.3% MoM, which is 0.1% MoM higher than expectations. At the same time, the indicator showed a slowdown, since in February sales growth was +0.9% MoM. Exports and imports in March decreased by the same amount, –2.0% MoM, which led to a higher trade balance surplus than expected. In March, the trade balance surplus was 4.949B Australian dollars, with a forecast of 4.490B. The follow-up RBA statement also supported the Australian dollar. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, noting the strong position of the labor market. While maintaining external risks, the RBA expects further economic growth in 2019 and 2020 by 2.75-3.00%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues trading ambiguously against the Japanese yen. After opening with the gap down on Monday, the US currency slightly corrected, but again tends to decline during the Asian session on May 7. The yen is supported by Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. In April, the figure rose from 49.5 to 50.2 points, returning to the February values. Investors today will focus on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as a speech by Fed representative, Randal Quarles. On Wednesday, the market is waiting for the publication of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee minutes.

Oil

Oil prices rose on Monday, despite the fact that during the day, they traded mainly with a decrease. The quotes were pressured by the disruption of the US-China trade negotiations after the harsh statements by Donald Trump. The market also reacts negatively to new signs of further increase in US oil production. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report from API on oil reserves for the week as of April 26.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-08 08:52 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency on Tuesday traded in both directions, closing with a slight decrease. Factory orders data published in Germany put pressure on the euro. In March, the index rose by 0.6% MoM against a decrease of 4.0% MoM last month, but analysts expected a more confident increase of 1.6% MoM. In annual terms, orders showed a negative trend at the level of –6.0% YoY against the expected –6.2% YoY. In February, the decline was –8.1% YoY. An economic report of the European Commission put additional pressure on the instrument. According to published data, GDP growth in the euro area in 2019 is expected to be 1.2% against the previous value of 1.3%. For 2020, the growth rate of the regional economy was also revised downward from 1.6% to 1.5%. In turn, the European Commission has noticeably improved its forecasts for the labor market, which can also have a positive effect on inflation expectations.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed an uncertain decline against the US dollar on Tuesday. The pound continues to correct paired with the US currency after an aggressive growth on May 3. The pressure on the British currency is exerted by the threat of disruption of the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the lack of visible progress in attempts to reach an agreement within the British parliament. The Minister for the Cabinet Office, David Lidington, confirmed that the UK will take part in the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held on May 23. According to the official, the Parliament of Great Britain simply will not have time to agree on a deal. During the Asian session on May 8, the pair is trading in both directions, and trading activity remains extremely low. Moderate support for the pound is provided by BRC data on retail sales in the UK. The indicator grew by 3.7% YoY in April after the decline by 1.1% YoY in the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 2.4% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar increases moderately against the US currency, developing corrective growth since the beginning of the week. The Australian dollar received some support from data on retail sales in Australia. The indicator grew by 0.3% MoM with the forecast for growth of 0.2% MoM In March. The market reaction to the decision of the RBA and the publication of the follow-up minutes was quite restrained. The regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, while noting the growing risks of a slowdown in the global economy. However, the RBA noted some improvements in the labor market. During the Asian session on May 8, the pair is trading with a raise. More confident growth of the instrument is hampered by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from China. Chinese exports unexpectedly went down by 2.7% YoY in April after growth by 14.2% YoY in the previous month. At the same time, imports showed an increase of 4.0% YoY, with a forecast of –3.6% YoY and a decrease of 7.6% YoY last month. The strong divergence of imports and exports led to a noticeable decrease in the trade surplus, which collapsed in April from USD 32.67 billion to USD 13.84 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen in trading on Tuesday. "Bearish" activity can also be traced during today's Asian session, against the background of which the instrument updates local lows of March 26. The yen is supported by a sharply increased threat of disrupting the US-China trade negotiations after Donald Trump's statements. However, there is information that the Chinese delegation made a decision to arrive at the talks in Washington, which gives hope for a favorable outcome of the process. Today, the instrument maintains a downward direction. The yen responds to the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan and China, but interest in the risk remains low, which gives the Japanese currency considerable support.

Oil

Oil prices again showed an aggressive decline on Tuesday, offsetting the results of the growth of quotations at the beginning of the week. The instrument is still under pressure from the potential disruption of the US-China trade negotiations, which could worsen the situation with the balance of supply and demand of oil in the market. More confident reduction of quotes is hampered by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. A report published by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday pointed to an increase in oil reserves for the week as of May 3 by 2.806 million barrels after rising by 6.810 million barrels over the previous reporting week. Today, investors are waiting for the statistics on crude oil stocks from the US EIA.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-13 09:00 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency ended last week trading with moderate growth against the US dollar, updating local highs of 1 May. The euro was supported by data from Germany. Exports from the country in March increased by 1.5% MoM after falling by 1.2% MoM in February, with a forecast of a decline of 0.3% MoM. Imports for the same period increased by 0.4% MoM after declining by 1.6% MoM last month. Experts predicted growth by +0.5% MoM. Due to a sharp increase in exports, Germany’s trade balance in March rose from EUR 18.7 billion to EUR 20.0 billion, which turned out to be better than market expectations. More confident growth of the instrument is currently hampered by complications in the US-China trade negotiations. On Friday, the United States raised import duties on Chinese goods, as Donald Trump promised. China responded by raising duties on US goods for USD 110 billion total. At the same time, the parties intend to continue negotiations, the results of which are able to cancel the restrictions imposed.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar last Friday. In the first half of the day, the instrument was trading upwards, supported by strong UK publications. UK GDP showed growth in Q1 2019 by 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY, which fully coincided with expectations. Over the past period, the UK economy showed growth of +0.2% QoQ and +1.4% YoY. The pound was also supported by industrial production data. In March, they showed an increase of 0.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which was significantly better than forecasts of +0.1% MoM and +0.5% YoY. During the Asian session on May 13, the instrument is trading upwards, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. Interesting macroeconomic statistics is not expected to be published today, so the activity in the market will remain restrained.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows flat trading paired with the US currency, consolidating near local lows of January 3, updated last Monday. A certain pressure on the position of the Australian dollar is exerted by the RBA comments on monetary policy published on Friday. Investors are somewhat disappointed with the extremely soft position of the regulator and fear the possible easing of interest rates if the economic situation in the country continues to deteriorate. In particular, the RBA lowered its GDP forecasts for 2020 from +3.00% YoY to +2.75% YoY. During the Asian session on May 13, the instrument is trading downwards. The development of "bearish" sentiment is facilitated by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Home Loans issued in Australia in March decreased by 2.5% MoM after rising by 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a growth rate of + 2.3% MoM. The volume of investment loans for home construction in March also decreased by 2.7% MoM after rising by 0.9% MoM in February.

USD/JPY

The US dollar maintains a downward trend paired with the Japanese yen, but the "bearish" activity is gradually weakening. The situation around the US-China trade negotiations is not changing much, despite the fact that the US increased import duties on Chinese goods on Friday. The Bank of Japan, in turn, is still not satisfied with the growth rate of the Japanese economy and inflation. Last week, the head of the regulator, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the Bank could go for an additional easing of monetary policy, if inflation continues to remain weak. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. At the end of March, Household Spending increased by 2.1% YoY after rising 1.7% YoY in February. In turn, the indicator of Average Cash Earnings for the same period dropped sharply by 1.9% YoY after falling by 0.8% YoY in February. Experts expected a decrease of only 0.5% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices show moderate growth, recovering after a decline at the beginning of the month. Tensions around the US-China trade negotiations, which escalated after Washington increased import duties on Chinese goods to 25%, continues to put pressure on the instrument. At the same time, both parties intend to continue trade negotiations. Donald Trump argues for the increase in import duties due to the violations from Beijing, so at the moment it is not entirely clear how the parties will be able to come to a consensus. Baker Hughes report on oil rigs number in the United States published last Friday showed a decrease in the number of drilling rigs from 807 to 805 units, which provided moderate support to prices.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-14 08:56 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency finished Monday's trading with a decrease against the US dollar, despite the fact that during the day the euro updated the local highs of the beginning of the month. Pressure on the instrument is exacerbated by trade relations between the United States and China against the background of ineffective negotiations and the exchange of threats. Last Friday, Donald Trump raised import duties on a number of Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of disrupting negotiations. The Minister of Finance of China also announced introduction of higher tariffs on imports of goods from the United States in the amount of USD 60 billion starting from June 1. The possibility of exacerbation of trade relations between the US and the EU also adds to the negative sentiment at the market. Donald Trump has repeatedly advocated the introduction of import duties on European goods after the case of subsidizing the Boeing Company. On May 18, the United States may announce increased tariffs on the import of European cars, which will force the EU to respond with mirror measures.

GBP/USD

The British pound declined significantly at the beginning of the current trading week, updating local lows of April 30. The aggravation of the trade conflict between the US and the PRC, as well as the possible start of a trade war between the US and the EU, contributes to the development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument. During the Asian session on May 14, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics on the UK labor market in March. It is expected that while maintaining the previous unemployment rate of 3.9%, the average earnings may slow down, which will put pressure on the pound.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly paired with the US currency on Monday, updating the local lows of the beginning of the year. The pressure on the Australian currency was put by exacerbated trade relations between the US and China, which threatens with a new round of slowdown in the global economy. Experts fear that the introduction of new import duties by the conflict parties will have a negative impact on the dynamics of Australian exports, which have recently been experiencing certain difficulties. During the Asian session on May 14, the Australian dollar is under moderate pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the NAB Business Survey in April collapsed from 7 to 3 points, which turned out to be worse than expected decline to 4 points. NAB Business Confidence index for the same period showed a moderate increase from –1 to 0 points, which, however, also turned out to be worse than market expectations of an increase to 1 point.

USD/JPY

The US dollar dropped significantly against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local lows of February 1. The market still shows an increased demand for the Japanese currency against the background of the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, which are ready to mutually increase import duties. In turn, Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Monday failed to provide any support to the yen. The Leading Index in March fell from 97.1 to 96.3 points, with the forecast of 96.4 points.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on Monday, supported by reports of a sabotage attack on ships near Fujairah. According to preliminary information, 4 vessels including two Saudi tankers were damaged, which could cause disruptions in oil supplies. Anyway, by the end of yesterday's trading session, the prices for the instrument had been noticeably corrected, and the focus of investor attention shifted to the development of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report from API on oil reserves for the week as of May 10.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-15 09:13 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of a correctional impetus formed the day before. The euro is still under pressure from the prospect of an open trade conflict between the US and the EU after the introduction of US import duties on European cars planned for May 18. In addition, investors monitor the development of the US-China trade negotiations. Yesterday, the euro was supported by data from Germany. CPI in April increased by 1% MoM and 2% YoY, which coincided with the last month data and the forecast. Wholesale Price Index for the same period accelerated from +0.3% MoM to +0.6% MoM with the forecast of growth to +0.4% MoM. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from +1.8% to +2.1%. In turn, published statistics on industrial production in the euro area failed to support the euro. Industrial production in March decreased by 0.3% MoM and 0.6% YoY after a decrease of 0.2% MoM and 0.3% YoY in February. Today, European investors focus on GDP statistics from Germany and the euro area for Q1 2019.

GBP/USD

GBP weakens against USD, updating local lows of April 26. The development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument is facilitated by the uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK, as well as the risks associated with the US-China trade negotiations, and the difficulty in forming a coalition within the British parliament. Statistics released in the UK on Tuesday showed a slowdown in Average Earnings + Bonus in March from +3.5% 3MoY to +3.2% 3MoY, while the forecast was +3.4% 3MoY. Claimant Count Change in April rose from 22.6K to 24.7K, with a forecast of 24.2K. At the same time, the overall unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 3.9% to 3.8%.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remains under pressure and is developing a downward trend against the US currency, updating local lows of the beginning of the year. The weakening of the instrument is facilitated by the tense situation around the US-China trade negotiations, which has noticeably deteriorated after the parties entered import duties against each other. The export-oriented Australian economy is very sensitive to changes in the dynamics of China's imports, so the risks for the Australian dollar also increased. During the Asian session on May 15, the pair is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of Australia and China. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in May slowed from +1.9% MoM to +0.6% MoM. Wage Price Index in Q1 2019 remained at the previous level of +0.5% QoQ, contrary to forecasts of growth to +0.6% QoQ. China reported a sharp slowdown in industrial production in April from +8.5 YoY to +5.4% YoY, while the forecast was +6.5% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, interrupting the five-day "bearish" rally and departing from local lows of early February. The emergence of an upward trend in the instrument is due to the development of corrective sentiment on the dollar in the market. At the same time, the demand for yen remains quite high, since the former risks associated with the aggravation of trade relations between the United States and China are still in force. Tuesday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook in April fell from 48.6 to 48.4 points, with a forecast of growth to 49.4 points.

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow moderately, despite the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. The day before, Saudi Arabia reported on the armed drone attack on oil production facilities owned by the state oil company Aramco. Previously, oil tankers off the coast of the UAE were also attacked, which heightened concerns about possible supply disruptions. However, Saudi Arabia claims that production and export volumes remain at the same levels. Additional pressure on prices on Tuesday was put by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of May 10, US Crude Oil Stock increased sharply by 8.600M barrels after an increase of 2.806M barrels in the previous period.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-16 08:53 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Wednesday. The euro was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from China, as well as ambiguous data from Europe. Industrial production in China in April slowed from +8.5% YoY to +5.4% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of +6.5% YoY. Retail sales for the same period increased by 7.2% YoY after rising by 8.7% YoY last month. Data from the euro area indicated GDP growth in Q1 2019 by 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with expectations. Employment index for the same period remained unchanged. With the opening of the US session, the euro was supported by news that Donald Trump might postpone the decision to raise import duties on European cars.

GBP/USD

GBP declined significantly against USD on Wednesday, updating local lows of February 15. There was no interesting macroeconomic statistics in the UK yesterday, so investors focused on the prospects for the development of a trade conflict between the US and China, as well as on the situation around Brexit. Teresa May has not yet managed to reach a compromise with the Labor Party, so there is no hope for an early approval of the agreement on leaving the EU. However, it became known that the British Prime Minister is preparing to submit the existing version of the agreement to a vote in Parliament around the beginning of June.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a downtrend against the US currency, updating local lows of the beginning of the year. The day before, instrument was pressured by the weak macroeconomic statistics from China, which once again reminded of the difficulties in the Chinese economy. During the Asian session on May 16, the instrument shows ambiguous dynamic in response to the publication of the April report on the Australian labor market on Thursday. Employment in April rose from 27.7K to 28.4K, which turned out to be noticeably better than market expectations of 14.0K. Unemployment Rate grew from 5.1% to 5.2%. The Employment rate rose due to a significant increase in private employment, while Full time employment in April showed a decline of 6.3K, after rising by 49.2K last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is trading in both directions against the Japanese yen, staying close to the local lows updated at the beginning of the week. The demand for yen is supported by the low interest in risk-taking, but overall trading activity remains low. Pressure on the Japanese currency yesterday was put by data on the Machine tool orders. According to preliminary estimates, in April, the figure fell by 33.4% after declining by 28.5% in March. During the Asian session, the yen is trading in both directions again. Investors are focused on a block of statistics from Japan. Stock investments by foreigners for the week as of May 10 reduced from 640.1B to 282.5B yen. Foreign bond investments increased from –257.0B to 20.8B yen.

Oil

Oil prices are rising moderately, recovering to local highs of the end of April. The quotes are supported by tensions in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia’s statements about the attacks on their oil production sites and tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. A more confident increase in prices on Wednesday was hampered by the report of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves. For a week as of May 10, oil stocks in US warehouses increased by 5.431M barrels, after a decrease of 3.963M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.800M barrels. At the same time, the report again reflected a decline in oil production from 12.200M to 12.100M barrels per day.

Brent Crude Oil: general review

2019-05-21 09:04 (GMT+2) Brent

Current trend

Brent crude oil is traded in an upward channel with a resistance level at 73.60 and support level at 70.30.

Significant demand for "black gold" is provided by the possibility of new attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The second positive moment for the energy market is the decision of OPEC to adhere to a balanced market and not to increase current production. At the same time, representatives of the organization said they would focus on demand and monitor global reserves in order to be able to influence the situation in a timely manner. Under the current agreement, the countries of the oil cartel have agreed to reduce total production by 1.2M barrels per day. It is also worth noting that last week a report on drilling activity in the United States was published, showing that the number of active oil rigs fell from 805 to 802 units in a week. The slowdown of this indicator indicates a possible decrease in production growth in the United States: over the past two weeks, the rate of oil refining fell by 100K barrels per day. At the same time, in Canada the activity indicator remained at the same level: the number of drilling rigs was 22 units.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 35 points and does not provide any signals for the opening of transactions.
Resistance levels: 73.60, 74.50.
Support levels: 72.00, 71.20.

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of 73.60 with take profit at 74.50 and stop loss at 73.25.

Bitcoin Cash: technical analysis

2019-05-23 10:00 (GMT+2) Bitcoin Cash

Current trend

BCH quotes failed to consolidate above 437.50 (Murrey [7/8]), although over the past two weeks they have made such attempts several times. Currently, the price stepped back to the level of 375.00 (Murrey [6/8]). The correction to the levels of 312.50 (Murrey [5/8]) and 250.00 (Murrey [4/8]) will be possible after the consolidation below the middle line of Bollinger bands around 350.00. The key “bullish” level is 437.50 (Murrey [7/8]). Fixing above it will give the prospect of growth to the upper border of the Murrey trading range around 500.00 (Murrey [8/8]) and to the level of 562.50 (Murrey [+1/8]).

Technical indicators do not give clear signals. Bollinger bands reversed upwards, confirming the preservation of the uptrend. Stochastic reverses downwards. The MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone and maintains a divergence with the price chart.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 437.50, 500.00, 562.50.
Support levels: 375.00, 312.50, 250.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 350.00 with the targets at 312.50, 250.00 and stop loss 385.00.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 437.50 with the targets at 500.00, 562.50 and stop loss 400.00.
Implementation period: 3–4 days.