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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review 2019-06-11 08:42 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a slight decrease against USD on Monday, correcting after a strong ...

          
   
  1. #801
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-11 08:42 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a slight decrease against USD on Monday, correcting after a strong growth of the instrument at the end of last week, when the euro updated local highs of March 22. The development of the "bearish" dynamics was due to the strengthening of USD in response to progress in the US-Mexico trade negotiations. Under the influence of a rather tough ultimatum on the part of Donald Trump, Mexico announced a number of measures against illegal migration, which ultimately made it possible to avoid an increase in import duties. Analysts are optimistic about this news, because they extrapolate this experience with Mexico to a situation with China, where a compromise has not yet been reached. Earlier, Donald Trump noted that he plans to discuss trade relations with Xi Jinping at the sites of the G20 Summit, which will be held on June 28 in Osaka.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed active decline against USD on Monday, almost completely offsetting the strong growth of the end of last week. Significant pressure on GBP was put by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in April decreased sharply by 2.7% MoM and 1.0% YoY after the increase by 0.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Analysts counted on –0.7% MoM and +1.0% YoY. During the same period, Manufacturing Production decreased by 3.9% MoM and 0.8% YoY, which also turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts (–1.1% MoM and +2.2% YoY). Index of Services in April showed an increase of 0.2% QoQ, slowing down from the previous +0.3% QoQ. GDP in April showed a sharp decline of 0.4% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM in March. During the Asian session on June 11, the instrument shows flat trading, and investors are awaiting publication of data on the UK labor market.

    AUD/USD

    AUD dropped significantly against USD at the beginning of this week, departing from its local highs. Australian markets were closed on Monday due to the national holiday, so the focus was on the optimistic news about the signing of an agreement between the US and Mexico, which allowed to avoid a new trade war. Some support for AUD on Monday is provided by news from China. Exports in May showed an increase of 1.1% YoY after a decrease of 2.7% YoY last month. Analysts counted on aggravating negative dynamics and reducing the index by 3.8% YoY. Imports, in contrast, fell sharply by 8.5% YoY after rising by 4.0% YoY in April. All this led to a sharp increase in the trade surplus, which reached USD 41.65 billion in May against the previous value of USD 13.84 billion.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Monday, ending the day session with almost zero result. The dollar was supported by optimistic news about the signing of an agreement between the USA and Mexico, which made it possible to avoid imposing import duties on Mexican goods from June 10. Investors also hoped that the US would be able to make some progress in trade negotiations with China. In turn, the yen received strong support from macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ after a growth of 0.5% QoQ over the previous period. In annual terms, the growth of the Japanese economy in Q1 2019 reached +2.2% YoY after rising by 2.1% YoY in the previous period.

    Oil

    Oil prices returned to decline on Monday, retreating from the new local highs of the beginning of the month. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by Russia's uncertain position on the issue of extending the current OPEC+ deal, which ends at the end of the month. A negative factor is still the low demand for petroleum products against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global economy. Trade tensions between the US and China have not gone away, and after the G20 Summit at the end of the month, a new round of increase in duties is quite possible if the parties do not reach any agreement. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock. The previous report reflected increase in volumes of 3.545M barrels.

  2. #802
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-12 08:56 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed growth against USD again on Tuesday, returning to an uptrend after some decline at the beginning of the week. EUR remains heavily overbought in the nearest time intervals, as it shows an active growth since May 31, but this does not particularly disturb investors. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published yesterday was contradictory. Investors welcomed the growth of NFIB Small Business Optimism index in May from 103.5 to 105.0 points. At the same time, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index for June dropped sharply from 58.6 to 53.2 points, while analysts predicted its growth to 59.2 points. The May Producer Price Index in the USA also slowed down a bit. PPI in May showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM in April. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +2.0% YoY. It is also worth noting that European statistics on Tuesday turned out worse than market forecasts. Sentix Investor Confidence in June decreased from 5.3 to –3.3 points, while the forecast predicted a decline only to 2.3 points.

    GBP/USD

    GBP rebounded against USD on Tuesday, offsetting a decline of the previous day. The instrument was supported by moderately strong data on the labor market in the UK, as well as a general negative attitude towards the US currency. Average Earnings ex. Bonus showed an increase in April by 3.4% 3MoY, which turned out to be better than last month data (+3.3% 3MoY) and forecasts (+3.1% 3MoY). Average Earnings Index + Bonus for the same period slowed down from +3.3% 3MoY to +3.1% 3MoY, but turned out to be better than expectations of +2.9% 3MoY. The Unemployment Rate remained at the same level of 3.8%.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a slight decline against USD on Tuesday, retaining the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. Yesterday, the instrument was moderately supported by the data from Australia, as well as rising pessimism about the prospects for the American economy. During the Asian session on June 12, the pair is trading downwards. Investors take a lead from ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and so far ignore the optimism of Chinese data. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in June showed a decline of 0.6% MoM after rising by 0.6% MoM over the previous period. Chinese statistics showed a rapid rise in the Consumer Price Index in May from 2.5% YoY to 2.7% YoY, which coincided with forecasts. The soft position of the RBA remains a negative factor for the instrument. Last week, the Australian regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, noting the negative impact of external factors. By the end of the year, the RBA plans to reduce the rate to 1%.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows ambiguous trading in pair with the Japanese yen, remaining close to the local lows, updated on June 5. The yen is still under pressure from uncertain news background and the threat of a possible easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. In addition, investors are currently not very interested in safe assets, although the situation remains rather unstable. During today's Asian session, statistics from Japan provide moderate support to the yen. Thus, the Japanese Core Machinery Orders in April increased by 5.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which was significantly better than the forecast of –0.8% MoM and –5.3% YoY. In turn, Producer Price Index in May showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM in April. YoY, the indicator slowed from +1.2% to +0.7%.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a slight decrease on Tuesday, continuing the development of a negative trend, re-formed at the beginning of the current trading week. Investors are focused on a program to reduce oil supply to the market under the OPEC+ deal. The main participants of the cartel have already agreed to extend the agreement after its termination in late June. Russia also announced the possible support of such a decision, which improved the prospects for maintaining a balance of supply and demand in the market. Yesterday's API report on Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed the growth rate for the week as of June 7 from 3.545 million to 4.850 million barrels. On Wednesday, investors expect the publication of similar statistics from the US Department of Energy.

  3. #803
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-13 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday, departing from local highs of March 22, updated late last week. The reduction of the instrument was largely technical in nature, while the news background did not change much. EUR was under pressure after the speech by the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, who focused on the vulnerability of the Central European countries to new threats of global trade war. With the opening of the American session, investors focused on the statistics on consumer inflation from the US. In May, CPI showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.8% YoY, slowing from the previous +0.3% MoM and +2.0% YoY. Core CPI showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was slightly worse than market expectations. During the Asian session on June 13, the instrument is trading in both directions, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. The focus is on the German statistics on consumer inflation in May, as well as the dynamics of industrial production in the euro area in April.

    GBP/USD

    GBP continues trading in both directions against USD. On Wednesday, the instrument returned to decline, despite the publication of weak statistics on consumer inflation from the US. GBP remains under pressure from an uncertain position on Brexit and weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Market participants fear that the new Prime Minister may destroy all the fragile agreements that Theresa May has been able to reach with the EU, and will eventually choose Brexit without a deal. In particular, one of the candidates for the post of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, does not exclude such an option. At the same time, British Treasury Secretary Philip Hammond said earlier that the UK’s exit from the EU on October 31 is an almost impossible task.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday, responding to the overall strengthening of USD across the entire market. The US dollar is growing despite the publication of disappointing statistics on the US consumer inflation, which has heightened fears of a speedy reduction in the interest rate by the Fed. During the Asian session on June 13, the instrument is trading downwards. At the same time, AUD is supported by a moderately optimistic report on the labor market in Australia in May. The level of employment in May grew by 42.3K workplaces against 28.4K last month. Analysts expected a growth of only 17.5K. Participation Rate in May reached 66.0%, while the forecast assumed that the figure would remain unchanged at 65.8%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in May remained at the previous level of 5.2%, while experts counted on reducing it to 5.1%.

    USD/JPY

    USD was almost unchanged paired with JPY on Wednesday. The market almost ignored the publication of a weak report on US consumer inflation, while the demand for yen remained quite low amid growing interest in risk. In turn, yesterday's macroeconomic statistics released in Japan managed to provide slight support to JPY. Japanese Core Machinery Orders in April increased by 5.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which was significantly better than the forecast of –0.8% MoM and –5.3% YoY. During today's Asian session, statistics from Japan provide support to the yen. Tertiary Industry Activity Index in May showed an increase of 0.8% YoY after a decrease of 0.4% YoY last month.

    Oil

    Oil prices declined significantly during Wednesday trading, reacting to the disappointing statistics on stocks from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of oil and petroleum products in the United States for the week as of June 7 rose by 2.206 million barrels after rising by 6.771 million barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline in stocks of 0.481 million barrels. Production volumes in the United States during the reporting period decreased from 12.400 to 12.300 million barrels per day. The report also pointed to lower forecasts for growth in demand for oil for the second half of 2019. In turn, the quotes are supported by the expectation of an extension of the OPEC+ deal on limiting oil production. In addition, investors are optimistic about the development of the US-Chinese trade conflict and expect positive changes after the G20 summit, which will take place in late June.

  4. #804
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-14 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR continues to weaken paired with USD, developing a correction impulse formed on Wednesday. USD is rising due to the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US, but investors are also worried about the growing uncertainty around Brexit. It became known that the IMF negatively assesses the prospects for the EU to achieve target levels for economic growth; therefore, it is likely that the Fund will revise its forecasts in the near future. Yesterday, EUR was under pressure from the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The volume of industrial production in April fell by 0.5% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM last month. In annual terms, the decline has decreased from –0.7% YoY to –0.4% YoY, with the forecast of –0.5% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading in both directions against USD, mainly with a decrease since the middle of this week. Brexit remains the main driver for the pound. After the announcement of the resignation of the current British Prime Minister Theresa May, the volatility around Brexit has increased significantly, and the market has again started talking about the possibility of a country leaving the EU without a deal. One of the leaders of the pre-election race, Boris Johnson, is also considering the hard Brexit scenario. On Friday, investors are focused on the US macroeconomic statistics on retail sales and consumer confidence. In the UK, the speech by the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is expected.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is declining against USD, updating local lows of May 24. The decrease in the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of USD practically throughout the entire market, while the macroeconomic statistics from the USA and Australia remain ambiguous. The report on the Australian labor market reflected a steady growth in Employment by 42.3K jobs, which was significantly better than expectations of 17.5K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at the same level of 5.2%, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 5.1%. During the Asian session on June 14, there are no interesting statistics from Australia, so investors are awaiting the publication of data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production from China. In addition, the press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics will be held.

    USD/JPY

    USD fell against JPY on Thursday, being under pressure from weak statistics from the US. In addition, a high level of market uncertainty provides significant support to the yen. Thursday's data from the US indicated an increase in Initial Jobless Claims by 222K, which turned out to be worse than the data for the previous period (219K) and the forecast of 216K. Import Price Index in May decreased by –0.3% MoM and –1.5% YoY, with the forecast of –0.2% MoM and –1.4% YoY. Export Price Index showed a decrease of –0.2% MoM and –0.7% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts of –0.1% MoM and –0.5% YoY. During the Asian session on June 14, the instrument is relatively stable. Some support for JPY has been provided by macroeconomic statistics on Industrial Production published in Japan. In April production volumes increased by 0.6% MoM, which coincided with the forecasts. Capacity Utilization in April increased by 1.6% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in the previous month.

    Oil

    Oil prices increased significantly on Thursday, responding to information about the attack on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Such news signals not only interruptions in the oil supply, but also exacerbates tensions in the market from the possible tightening of US sanctions. Analysts believe that the US can once again blame Iran for attacks, regardless of whether the state bears any real responsibility for the incident. A certain pressure on the quotes was put by the OPEC monthly report, which among other things reflected the decline in the forecast for oil demand growth in 2019 by 70 thousand barrels per day. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count in the United States.

  5. #805
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-17 08:43 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a decline against USD on Friday, retreating to local lows of June 6. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was the strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the general corrective sentiment at the market. The volume of industrial production in the US in May increased by 0.4% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts had expected positive trend to recover, but counted on 0.2% MoM growth. Capacity Utilization Rate in May rose from 77.9% to 78.1%, which turned out to be better than the market forecast of 78.0%. Statistics from the euro area published on Friday turned out to be noticeably worse. France Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices slowed down in May from +0.3% MoM to +0.1% MoM, and from +1.3% YoY to +0.9% YoY. In Italy, the volume of industrial orders fell sharply. In April, the indicator fell by 2.4% MoM after rising by 2.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by +2.4% MoM.

    GBP/USD

    GBP returned to an active decline against USD at the end of the last trading week, updating local lows of May 31. The negative dynamics of the instrument is taking place against the background of further growing uncertainty in the market, which forces investors to look for safer assets. At the same time, concerns about a rate cut by the US Fed have now faded into insignificance, since the market has partially involved this scenario in current quotes. The speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Friday did not provide any support for GBP, since it was not devoted to the prospects of monetary policy. Brexit remains a powerful negative factor for the instrument, as well as the election of a new British Prime Minister. Markets fear that the UK will leave the EU without a deal, which will cause more harm to the national economy.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a decline against USD on Friday, having updated local lows of the beginning of 2019. The development of negative dynamics of the instrument on Friday was due to strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, coupled with increased uncertainty in the market. Macroeconomic statistics from China also put certain pressure on the instrument. Industrial Production in May slowed down from +5.4% to +5.0% YoY, while analysts predicted growth of the rate to +5.5% YoY. Fixed Asset Investment decreased from +6.1% YoY to +5.6% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than forecast of 6.1%. During the Asian session on June 17, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. The macroeconomic background is relatively poor today, so an increase in volatility is expected from Tuesday, when the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed a slight increase against JPY on Friday, but still maintains the flat corridor, which has existed since June 3. Support for the US currency is provided by strong macroeconomic data from the US, as well as a reduction in concerns about the development of a recession in the US economy. Published on Friday, statistics from Japan could not provide any substantial support to JPY. Industrial production in Japan in April showed an increase of 0.6% MoM and decreased by 1.1% YoY. The data coincided with forecasts and with the dynamics of last month. Capacity Utilization in April increased by 1.6% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of +0.2% MoM.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Friday, continuing the development of a corrective impulse. Technical factors contributed to the development of "bullish" dynamics of the instrument, while the former negative background remained. Last week, the International Energy Agency lowered its demand forecast for the current year by 100K barrels to 1.2M barrels per day. A similar forecast was published by OPEC, lowering the forecast of demand to 1.14M barrels per day. The quotes are still supported by growing tensions in the Middle East: last week two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The US has already blamed Iran for these attacks, which could lead to a new round of sanctions pressure on Tehran.

  6. #806
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-18 08:59 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    On Monday, EUR against USD rose within the correction, recovering from a sharp decline at the end of the last trading week. The strengthening of the instrument is due to technical factors since investors are in no hurry to open new positions until the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. Traders are waiting for comments regarding monetary easing in the near future. During the June meeting, the rate cut is doubtful but in July it looks quite likely. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is also trading in an upward manner. On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of a block of EU statistics on consumer inflation and economic sentiment. The market will also pay attention to the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and comments from other representatives of the Central Bank.

    GBP/USD

    Yesterday, GBP actively declined against USD, renewing its lows from the beginning of the year. The development of negative dynamics was due to the growing concern about the "hard" Brexit. Talk about leaving the UK from the EU without a deal resumed after Teresa May announced her resignation, and candidates who intend to withdraw the country from the EU unambiguously joined the election race. The current leader of the race is Boris Johnson. Monday’s British statistics also did not support GBP. Thus, the housing price index from Rightmove in May slowed down from +0.9% MoM to +0.3% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator did not change after a growth of 0.1% YoY in April. Today, traders are waiting for the speech of the Bank of England’s CEO Mark Carney.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is falling against USD, renewing the lows from January 3 of the current year. The demand for commodity assets remains low, as investors fear a further slowdown in the global economy and the expansion of trade conflicts. In addition, traders won’t change the previous trends, preferring to wait for a key Fed meeting, when the terms of interest rate reductions may be announced. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is declining due to poor statistics on housing prices. An additional “bearish” factor for the instrument is the publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes of June 4, when the regulator decreased the interest rate by 25 basis points. Q1 housing price index fell by 3.0% QoQ after falling 2.4% QoQ last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of only 1.6% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    USD is relatively stable against JPY, trading ambiguously. On Monday, few key macroeconomic statistics from the United States entered the market, so investors continued to discuss the prospects for easing the Fed's monetary policy. Published data on the market value of housing from the NAHB reflected the decline in the index in June from 66 to 64 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 67 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Federal Reserve Bank dropped sharply from 17.8 to –8.6 points in June against the forecast of a decline only to 10 points.

    Oil

    Yesterday, oil prices fell slightly, as investors focused on the prospects for a slowdown in the global economy and a further decline in demand for petroleum products. Industrial production in China is falling at a record pace and is already at its lowest level of 17 years. Prospects for the normalization of trade relations between the United States and China remain vague, although investors are optimistic about the beginning of the G20 summit in late June. Interruptions in oil supplies due to the tense situation in the Middle East, as well as OPEC+ policies aimed at curbing the growth of oil and oil products, continue to support the prices moderately. Today, investors are focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves for the week of June 14.

  7. #807
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-19 08:38 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a noticeable decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of June 3. The reason for the resumption of active "bearish" dynamics was the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who did not rule out the use of broad incentives if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. He was talking about both additional interest rate cuts and expansion of the quantitative easing program. The published macroeconomic statistics from Europe also did not support EUR. Investors were greatly disappointed with the statistics on the ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany. In June, the indicator dropped sharply from -2.1 to -21.1 points, with a forecast of a decline to -5.9 points. In the Eurozone, the index fell from -18.6 to -20.2 points. The Eurozone consumer price index in May showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.2% YoY, slowing down from the previous 0.7% MoM and 1.7% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed moderate growth against the US dollar on June 18, which allowed it to partially win back Monday's losses. However, the pound managed to update the local minima of January 3, since the position of the US currency continues to be quite strong. The main driver for GBP growth were technical factors, while there was no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK. The speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, also failed to provide significant support to the instrument, since it did not concern the monetary policy outlook. On Thursday, the BoE will publish its decision on rates. Analysts believe that the decision to maintain rates at the current level will be taken unanimously.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday, recovering from a 6-day "bearish" rally. The instrument was supported by the rise in correction sentiment in anticipation of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, as the market fears a quick decline in interest rates in USA. In addition, the demand for the Australian dollar has increased after the optimistic Donald Trump publications on Twitter, where he announced his meeting with PRC President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. AUD is slightly pressured by statistics from Australia. The Westpac index of leading economic indicators in May showed a decline of 0.1% MoM while maintaining a negative trend.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed a noticeable decline against the Japanese yen on June 18 but managed to recover by the close of the day session. The instrument was supported by optimistic comments from Donald Trump on Twitter, which announced a meeting with PRC leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. The US and Chinese teams should start meeting in the near future to discuss the trade conflict. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, and investors expect new drivers and a significant increase in volatility at the end of the week. The Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will meet, too. On Wednesday, the yen is pressured by the statistics from Japan. Exports in May collapsed by 7.8% YoY after falling by 2.4% YoY last month. Imports decreased from 6.5% YoY to -1.5% YoY with a forecast of 0.2% YoY. In May, Japan’s trade balance was again in deficit of -967.1 billion yen.

    Oil

    Oil prices rose on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump announced a meeting with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in late June. Investors are still hoping for a favorable resolution of the trade conflict, which significantly increases the risks in the market. Some support for quotes was provided by API report on oil reserves. For the week of June 14, oil reserves fell by 0.812 million barrels after rising by 4.850 million over the previous period. On Wednesday, investors will focus on the Fed's interest rate decision with an accompanying press conference, as well as the publication of a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

  8. #808
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-20 08:53 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, departing from local minima, updated as a result of a confident downward rally since June 12. Today, the instrument also grows actively. The reason for the appearance of "bullish" dynamics was the outcome of the US Fed meeting; half of the representatives of the regulator were in favor of lowering the interest rate by the end of the year. Also, the growth in demand for the euro was due to Donald Trump's intentions to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. More confident growth of EUR on Wednesday was hampered by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German producer price index in May fell by 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.5% MoM last month. YoY, the index slowed down from 2.5% to 1.9%.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound is trading upwards against the US dollar, quickly regaining the losses of the end of last week. The reason for the strengthening of corrective moods became quite pessimistic comments by the Fed after the meeting on June 19. As expected, the regulator did not change the course of monetary policy but signaled the possibility of such changes in the near future. GBP, in turn, quite coldly reacted to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on Wednesday. The consumer price index in May slowed down from 0.6% MoM to 0.3%MoM, which coincided with market expectations. YoY, the index slowed down from 2.1% to 2.0%. A report by CBI reflected a sharp decline in industrial orders in June: -15 points against the previous -10. Today, the instrument is also trading upwards, but investors are awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England meeting. It is expected that the regulator will unanimously vote to maintain the current monetary policy.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on June 19. The instrument was moderately supported by corrective sentiment on the US currency that strengthened amid the "dovish" Fed rhetoric. In turn, macroeconomic statistics from Australia continued to put moderate pressure on the pair. The Westpac index of leading economic indicators in May showed a decline of 0.08% MoM after a decrease of 0.05% MoM in April. Today, the instrument is trading upwards, and investors play on the publication of the RBA bulletin and the speech of the head of the regulator Philip Lowe. However, the speech of the RBA head had only a moderate impact on the AUD, since it was almost entirely devoted to the situation on the labor market and did not touch upon aspects of future monetary policy.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar declined markedly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, interrupting the flat tendency formed since June 3. The yen was supported by the results of the US Fed meeting, after which the market concentrated on discussing the prospects for easing monetary policy at the next meeting of the regulator. Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. As expected, the key rate was kept at -0.1%. The regulator again complained about the slowdown in exports and production in view of the deteriorating situation in the global economy and the growth of protectionist sentiment. The main forecasts and target levels of the BoJ remained unchanged.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on June 19, despite the publication of optimistic data on the dynamics of oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. According to the report, oil reserves for the week of June 14 decreased by 3.106 million barrels after rising by 2.206 million over the previous period. The report also indicated a reduction in production from 12.300 to 12.200 million barrels per day. Quotes have additional support from hopes for the conclusion of the US-China trade agreement. Earlier, Donald Trump announced a meeting with the PRC leader at the G20 summit, which caused a noticeable enthusiasm in the market.

  9. #809
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-24 08:44 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed a sharp rise against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of March 22. The reason for the further weakening of the US currency is the decline in the yield of treasury bonds, the pigeon position of the Fed, and the growing risks of currency interventions in addition to lowering the interest rate. The euro was supported by macroeconomic statistics published at the end of the week. In June, according to preliminary estimates, the composite Markit Manufacturing PMI showed an increase from 51.8 to 52.1 points with a "no change" forecast. Markit Services PMI for the same period increased from 52.9 to 53.4 points, which is also above expectations. In turn, US indices showed a decline. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.5 to 50.1 points while the forecast was 50.4 points. Services PMI dropped from 50.9 to 50.7 points, with a forecast of growth to 51.0 points.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound is trading upwards against the US currency, updating local highs of June 12. The instrument is supported by the weak dollar position, which expects monetary policy easing at the Fed meeting in July. Also, investors are waiting for the start of the G20 summit at the end of the week and are hoping for positive results from a possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. In turn, the pound is pressured by the increased uncertainty around Brexit. Last week, the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, noted that he was looking forward to working with the new British Prime Minister, but stressed that the agreements reached under the agreement are not subject to revision. This is a rather alarming signal since practically all candidates for the post of prime minister in one way or another support the revision of certain points of the agreement. The alternative is still the "no deal" Brexit.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on June 21, but today it is actively growing again. The strengthening of the instrument is largely due to technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from Australia and the United States remains controversial. The market headed for the weakening of the USD amid the upcoming easing of the Fed's monetary policy, however, in many ways the possible decision of the regulator has already influenced the current level of quotes.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the yen at the end of the week, reversing near the updated local lows of the beginning of the year. The reason for the slowdown in the "bearish" dynamics was the technical correction, as well as the relatively weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.8 to 49.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 50.0 points. The growth of the national consumer price index in May slowed down from 0.9% YoY to 0.7% YoY, coinciding with analysts' forecasts. Today, investors are focused on the publication of indexes of leading and coincident indicators in Japan in April. On June 25, the market is waiting for the publication of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a moderate increase on June 21, responding to increased tensions in the Middle East after the incident with the US drone shot down by Iran. On Friday, Donald Trump canceled a strike on Iran noting that this could cause a disproportionate loss of lives, so the market is now waiting for the current sanctions to strengthen. In any case, the prospects for US-Iranian relations have noticeably deteriorated and it is obviously not necessary to count on normalizing the situation in the near future. On Friday, slight pressure on quotes was provided by the published Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States. During the week, the number

  10. #810
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-06-25 08:35 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on Monday, updating local highs of March 21. The strengthening the single currency is caused by the weakness of the dollar, which reacts negatively to the prospects for reducing the interest rate by the Fed. However, the threat of easing monetary policy exists in Europe, too. Some analysts believe that before leaving, the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will try to convince the board members of the need for new incentives amid low inflation expectations. The macroeconomic statistics published on Monday showed no significant support for the euro. The German Ifo index of economic expectations in June showed a decline from 95.3 to 94.2 points, with a forecast of a decline to 94.5 points. The business optimism index for the same period decreased from 97.9 to 97.4 points (better than analysts' forecasts of 97.3 points).

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Monday, updating local highs of 21 May. The news background of the beginning of the week remained fairly calm, so investors were focused on the former drivers. The dollar is still pressured by the greatly increased tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the uncertainty in trade relations with China in anticipation of the G20 summit, at which Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can meet. The pound is pressured by uncertainty with Brexit. Investors fear that changing the prime minister will not help the approval process of the current agreement, and the country will be forced to leave the EU without an agreement at all, which threatens another slowdown in the global economy.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar strengthened against the US one on Monday, rising to new local highs of 10 June. Amid the lack of new drivers in the market, USD is noticeably losing to AUD due to increased tensions. This is due to several factors, including the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, as well as the upcoming meeting of the heads of the United States and China. Despite the optimistic mood of the market, analysts fear that, if the June negotiations of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping come to a standstill, the next chance to normalize trade relations between the countries will not appear soon. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from the United States was ambiguous. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in May rose from -0.48 to -0.05 points, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts (-0.37 points). The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in June fell from -5.3 to -12.1 points, against the forecasts of growth to 4.8 points.

    USD/JPY

    At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed ambiguous and inactive trading dynamic against the Japanese yen. In the absence of significant news factors, investors continued to play on existing drivers. The yen was moderately supported by indices from Japan. The index of leading indicators in April rose from 95.7 to 95.9 points, with a forecast of 95.5 points. The index of coincident indicators for the same period strengthened from 101.1 to 102.1 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 101.9 points. Today, the yen is showing aggressive growth, despite the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan. Prices for corporate services in March showed an increase of 0.8% YoY, slowing down from the previous value of 1.0% YoY. Investors are also focused on the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy from April 24-25. However, the document did not reflect anything new and reaffirmed the commitment of the regulator to the soft policy. Probably, the rates will remain unchanged at least until the spring of 2020.

    Oil

    Oil prices returned to decline at the beginning of the week, departing from local highs, updated on Friday. The reason for the decline in quotes was the existing factors of low demand for petroleum products against the background of a slowdown in the global economy and an increase in tensions in certain regions. In particular, the attention is focused on the conflict between the USA and Iran, aggravated after the US drone was shot down in the Persian Gulf. The conflict between the USA and China remains unresolved. However, investors have high hopes for meeting Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meeting at the G20 summit, which will be held at the end of the week in Japan. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and on the publication of the API report on oil reserves for the week of June 21.

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