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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review 2019-11-14 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, updating local lows of October ...

      
   
  1. #901
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-14 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, updating local lows of October 15. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the EU failed to provide significant support to EUR. German Consumer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY, which fully coincided with market expectations. Harmonized Consumer Price Index for the same period increased by 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which also agrees with expert estimates. In turn, Industrial Production in the euro area in September rose from –2.8% YoY to –1.7% YoY with a forecast of growth to –2.3% YoY. In monthly terms, production volumes, on the contrary, slowed down from 0.4% MoM to 0.1% MoM, which turned out to be better than market expectations of –0.3% MoM. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors will focus on the EU GDP for Q3 2019 and a quarterly report on the Employment Rate.

    GBP/USD

    GBP ended Wednesday trading with multi-directional dynamics against USD. Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer Price Index in October showed a decrease of 0.2% MoM after an increase of 0.1% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to appear, but counted on only –0.1% MoM decline. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 1.7% YoY to 1.5% YoY, with the forecast of 1.6% YoY. Retail Price Index in October showed a negative trend of –0.2% MoM, which coincided with the data of the previous month. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 2.4% YoY to 2.1% YoY, with the forecast of 2.2% YoY. Today, the pair maintains its previous dynamics, waiting for the release of new data. British investors are interested in the publication of October statistics on retail sales. Moderately optimistic data is expected to appear, which may provide some support for the British currency.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, closing the session with almost zero result. The reason for the development of flat trading was controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the United States, as well as recent comments by Donald Trump, who did not shed light on the prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. Moreover, many investors considered the speech of the American president a signal for their possible complication, since Trump again accused China of "manipulation" and noted that the deal would be signed only on condition that it would be "useful" for the US economy. Today, the instrument is steadily declining in response to the publication of disappointing statistics from Australia and China. Australia's Employment Change in October showed a decline of 19K after an increase of 12.5K in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 15K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%.

    USD/JPY

    USD fell against JPY on Wednesday, updating local lows of November 7. USD continues to decline amid growing demand for safe assets after a speech by Donald Trump left questions about the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China unanswered. In addition, in his speech, the American president also accused the leadership of the EU of manipulation, which could complicate consultations on this issue and lead to an additional increase in world trade tension. Today, the instrument maintains a moderate downtrend, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of only 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed moderate growth on Wednesday, receiving support from optimistic OPEC statements. Cartel Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo noted that there are no signs of a global recession in the world economy, so an increase in demand is quite possible as economic growth resumes. In addition, OPEC expects a slowdown in shale oil production, which should also have a beneficial effect on the balance of supply and demand in the market. Finally, quotes were supported by API Crude Oil Stock Report, according to which oil reserves fell by 0.5M barrels over the week ending November 8, after rising by 4.26M barrels in the previous reporting period.

  2. #902
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-15 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Thursday, interrupting the development of a downward rally since November 4. The appearance of correctional dynamics was facilitated by moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. German GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, accelerating from the previous value of –0.2% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.1% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP increased by 1.0% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY in Q2 2019. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.9% YoY. In the euro area, economic growth was less noticeable. In quarterly terms, the EU GDP added the previous 0.2% QoQ, and in annual terms it accelerated from +1.1% YoY to +1.2% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    GBP rose against USD on Thursday, rising to local highs, updated earlier this week. The growth of the instrument was largely determined by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remained negative. UK Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM, despite an expected increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator strengthened by 3.1% YoY, which coincided with the data for the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 3.7% YoY. Core Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in September. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY against a forecast of 3.4% YoY.

    AUD/USD

    AUD closed Thursday trading with a steady decline against USD, updating local lows of October 17. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by disappointing macroeconomic statistics on employment from Australia. October Employment Rate fell by 19.0K after rising by 14.7K in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 15.0K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%. Additional negative impact on the instrument had Chinese data. In October, China's Industrial Production slowed down from 5.8% YoY to 4.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 5.4% YoY. Retail Sales in China over the same period decreased from 7.8% YoY to 7.2% YoY, which also turned out to be weaker than market forecasts of 7.9% YoY.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed a decline against JPY on Thursday, updating local lows of November 4. The growth of the Japanese currency proceeded against the background of the publication of extremely weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ after growing by 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed from 1.8% YoY to 0.2% YoY, with the forecast of 0.8% YoY. Given such weak data, investors fear that the Bank of Japan will take new measures to stimulate the economy, which will put additional pressure on the yen. Anyway, as long as the market remains at a high degree of uncertainty caused by the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the Japanese currency will be in demand.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, but could not stay at new levels and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. Pressure on quotes was exerted by the report from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of crude oil in the United States for the week ending November 8 rose by 2.219M barrels after rising by 7.929M barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase in stocks of 1.649M barrels. The report also indicated a further increase in US oil production from 12.600M barrels to 12.800M barrels.

  3. #903
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    2019-11-18 09:00 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR grew moderately against USD on Friday, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The growth of the instrument was largely technical in nature, since there were almost no fundamental factors at the market. Friday's macroeconomic inflation statistics from the euro area turned out to be ambiguous, but, in general, met the expectations of the market. Consumer Price Index in October slowed down from +0.2% MoM to +0.1% MoM with a neutral outlook. In annual terms, growth in consumer inflation amounted to the previous +0.7% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index in October increased by 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY, which fully coincided with preliminary estimates by experts. Today, the euro remains growing against the dollar. During the day, investors are awaiting speeches by ECB representatives Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is growing moderately against USD, updating local highs of November 4. The growth of the British currency at the end of last week was contributed by not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the US, which prompted investors to further sales of the dollar. In turn, the pound remains under pressure from uncertainty around Brexit and the upcoming early parliamentary elections in December. Analysts fear that the election results will not clarify the process of negotiating a deal with the EU, since none of the parties will be able to take over the vast majority in parliament. Today, the pound continues its active upward trend, despite the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from the UK. The Rightmove House Price Index in November decreased by 1.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM in October. YoY, the index rose from –0.2% to +0.3%.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed strong growth against USD on Friday, which allowed the instrument to partially recoup its losses after a sharp decline the day before. The appearance of correctional dynamics was largely due to technical factors, as well as the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Industrial Production in the USA in October decreased by 0.8% MoM after a decrease of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected reduction by 0.4% MoM. Capacity Utilization Rate in October decreased from 77.5% to 76.7%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 77.1%. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in November fell from 4 to 2.9 points, while analysts expected a growth rate of up to 5 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed corrective growth against JPY on Friday, retreating from local lows of November 4. The growth of the instrument was due to the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from Japan and weak data from the USA. Japan's Industrial Production in September increased by 1.3% YoY after rising by 1.1% YoY in the previous month. In monthly terms, production grew by 1.7% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM in the previous month and with a forecast of +1.4% MoM. Capacity Utilization in September increased by 1% after a decrease of 2.9% in August. Analysts expected a negative trend to remain at the level of –0.6%. Similar statistics on Industrial Production from the United States turned out to be weaker than their forecasts, and the position of the US currency was supported only by data on Retail Sales. In October, Retail Sales grew by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected increase by 0.2% MoM.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed moderate growth on Friday, reacting to the appearance of optimistic signals regarding the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. On Thursday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow noted that the parties are close to signing the final document. Last weekend, a telephone conversation took place between the head of the Chinese delegation, Liu He, with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The results of the conversation were positive, and the parties agreed to continue negotiations during the current week. Finally, quotes were supported by the published Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report, according to which the number of operating drilling rigs in the US decreased from 684 to 674 units during the reporting week.

  4. #904
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-19 08:34 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed strong growth against USD on Monday, updating local highs of November 7. The euro was supported by optimistic statements by American officials who again spoke out for the early conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. However, disagreements between the parties remain. The main requirement of Beijing, the cancellation of previously introduced tariffs, remains unfulfilled, and it is unlikely that Donald Trump will decide to change his position on this issue. In turn, China is in no hurry to include the exact volumes of US agricultural imports into the agreement. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on statistics on Construction Output in the euro area. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to data on US Housing Starts in October.

    GBP/USD

    GBP rose against USD on Monday, noting new local highs since October 22. The growth of the British currency, in addition to the technical factors of the dollar correction, was facilitated by optimistic news after opinion polls, which strengthened the belief in the victory of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In addition, some of the seats in parliament may go to candidates from the Brexit party, led by Nigel Farage. Of course, when voting for a deal in parliament, Farage will support Johnson, which significantly increases the chances of a favorable outcome with the situation with Brexit in December-January.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed flat dynamics against USD on Monday, reacting to the weak macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week. The instrument was slightly supported by data on Foreign Direct Investment in the Chinese economy. In October, investment volumes grew by 6.6% YoY after an increase of 6.5% YoY in the previous month. Today, the pair is falling again, smoothly returning to the local lows updated last week. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes from November 5. Despite the fact that the RBA kept the interest rate unchanged last time, investors fear that the difficult economic situation will force the regulator to take new stimulation measures. The published protocols do not talk about this directly, but they signal a persistent low inflation rate.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed growth against JPY on Monday, but could not stay at the occupied highs and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the appearance of a number of optimistic signals regarding trade negotiations between the US and China; however, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of a possible signing of the agreement. Today, the instrument is declining again, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The market is focused on the publication of US statistics on Housing Starts in the United States, as well as a new round of negotiations between Japan and South Korea in the WTO.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a decline on Monday, responding to the emergence of contradictory signals regarding the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the United States and China. In addition, the OPEC+ meeting in early December remains in the spotlight of investors. It is expected that the cartel will decide to extend the current deal to reduce oil production amid continued low demand for oil products. Last week, OPEC announced that it expects a decline in oil demand in 2020 due to ongoing trade wars and a slowdown in the global economy. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending November 15.

  5. #905
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-20 08:54 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, halting the development of an active "bullish" impulse, which remained since last Thursday. The development of flat dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Construction Output in September decreased by 0.7% YoY after an increase of 0.8% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 2.7% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator grew by 0.74% MoM after a decline of 0.82% MoM in August. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Investors are also focused on an uncertain situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Despite the continued optimistic sentiment of some politicians, the situation seems to have come to a standstill, and so far it seems that Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed a correctional decline on Tuesday, retreating from the local highs of October 22, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by moderately optimistic macroeconomic indicators from the US. At the same time, GBP was supported by hopes for a positive outcome for the Brexit deal in the upcoming British parliamentary elections in December. According to recent opinion polls, the Conservative party has good chances of winning, which theoretically allows it to get the majority of seats in Parliament and ratify the current version of the agreement with the EU. American statistics indicated a moderate growth in the construction market. Building Permits increased from 1.391M to 1.461M in October with a forecast of 1.385M. Housing Starts in October rose from 1.266M to 1.314M, which only slightly fell short of forecasts of 1.320M.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of November 14. During the day, the instrument mainly declined, remaining under pressure after the publication of controversial minutes of the RBA meeting. In addition, the uncertain situation around the trade negotiations between the US and China, which has been noticeably complicated lately, is also putting pressure on AUD. Today, the instrument has returned to decline. Investors are focusing on publications from Australia, as well as the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate. Westpac Leading Index fell by 0.07% in October, after falling by 0.12% last month. The Chinese regulator, in turn, unexpectedly lowered its interest rate from 4.2% to 4.15%, apparently trying to support an economy that is showing a slowing trend.

    USD/JPY

    USD maintains a moderate downward trend, paired with JPY, updating local lows of November 14. Demand for a "safe" yen is growing again as the next local crisis develops in US-China trade negotiations. Donald Trump is still not going to abolish previously imposed import duties, and China is in no hurry to clarify the exact volume of imports of American agricultural products in the agreement. Today, the instrument continues to develop a "bearish" trend, ignoring uncertain macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –16% YoY. As a result, the overall Trade Balance in October turned out to be surplus at 17.3B Japanese yen. In the previous month, the trade balance showed a deficit of 124.8B Japanese yen.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a noticeable decline on Tuesday, responding to negative forecasts by analysts regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by news about an increase in oil production in Norway, as the country managed to start developing the Johan Sverdrup field ahead of schedule. Finally, the American Petroleum Institute report, published on Tuesday, turned out to be a negative factor, showing that in the week ending November 15, US oil reserves rose sharply by 5.954M barrels after a decrease of 0.5M barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report from the US Department of Energy.

  6. #906
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-21 08:55 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a flat dynamics of trading against USD on Wednesday, locating near the local highs, updated on November 18. Further development of the "bullish" trend was hindered by the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. The markets reacted negatively to the release of the report on financial stability in the euro area, which, among other things, pointed to the growing risks of a slowdown in the European economy against the backdrop of continuing uncertainty in world markets. German Producer Price Index in October fell by 0.2% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. In annual terms, the indicator decreased by 0.6% YoY after the decrease by 0.1% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% YoY. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions. Investors are awaiting speeches by ECB representatives, Yves Mersch and Luis de Guindos, as well as the publication of information on the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

    GBP/USD

    GBP ended Wednesday trading with flat dynamics against USD. During the day, the instrument was moderately reduced, but by the end of the afternoon session, it managed to fully recoup. Wednesday's macroeconomic background remained fairly calm, so the previous drivers were in the spotlight of investors. Markets are following the election campaign in the UK, responding positively to a series of opinion polls that revealed a slight conservative advantage. The election to the British Parliament should be held in mid-December. If Boris Johnson's party wins the election, the Parliament will probably have time to ratify the agreement with the EU, and the UK will be able to leave the union, bypassing the so-called hard Brexit.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a moderate decline against USD on Wednesday, reversing downwards after quite active growth the day before. The pressure on the instrument again comes from the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which seem to be at an impasse. Donald Trump said that if the signing of the deal breaks, then in December, import duties on Chinese goods may be raised even higher than previously planned values. In addition, the complication of relations between the countries was facilitated by the meeting of the US Senate, which approved bills supporting civil unrest in Hong Kong. Beijing has already commented on the decisions taken by the Senate, calling them "interference in China's domestic policy".

    USD/JPY

    USD showed a slight increase against JPY on Wednesday, but again returned to decline during today's Asian session. The emergence of the uptrend yesterday was due to weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 16% YoY. Support for the Japanese currency, in turn, is provided by an increase in demand for safe assets amid worsening prospects for trade negotiations between the US and China, a breakdown of which can lead to a further decline in the global economy.

    Oil

    Oil prices rose significantly on Wednesday, reacting to the publication of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, according to which, the volume of oil reserves for the week ending November 15 increased by 1.379 million barrels after an increase of 2.219 million barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.543 million barrels. At the same time, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 44.2 million barrels, while gasoline reserves increased by 1.8 million barrels to 220.8 million barrels. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change compared to last week and amounted to 12.800 million barrels per day. Additional support for oil quotes was provided by another aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. Another attack on oil tankers occurred in the Persian Gulf, after which the US Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group sailed through the Strait of Hormuz.

  7. #907
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-22 08:51 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during the Asian session, having added 0.06% till the present moment. Insignificant support for the instrument is provided by rather weak positions of the American currency, which came under pressure after the publication of ambiguous data from the USA the day before. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15 remained at the level of 227K, with a forecast of a decline to 219K. Continuing Jobless Claims rose from 1.692M to 1.695M, while analysts expected a reduction to 1.685M. During the day, European investors expect the publication of statistics from Germany and the euro area on GDP dynamics and levels of business activity. In addition, the market is waiting for the speech of the new ECB Governor Christine Lagarde, who can make significant changes to the policy of the European regulator.

    GBP/USD

    During the Asian session, the pair is showing weak growth, slightly strengthening by 0.08%. The focus on investors remains on the situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may end in failure. The day before, the PRC noticeably increased criticism of the US after the approval of a bill in the US Senate on the possible restriction of China’s trade preferences in the USA in case of violation of human rights and freedoms in Hong Kong. Negative forecasts on trade negotiations suggest that in mid-December, the United States will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods, which will contribute to the escalation of tension. In the afternoon, investors expect publication of statistics from the UK on the Manufacturing and Services PMI for November.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is trying to correct after an active decline for two consecutive sessions; however, the Australian dollar has little fundamental support. Investors are focused on Friday's statistics on business activity indexes. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in November showed a decrease from 50.1 to 49.5 points. The indicator turned out significantly worse than its forecasts, which assumed its growth to 53.5 points. Manufacturing PMI over the same period fell from 50 to 49.9 points, which was 0.1 points better than market expectations. Composite PMI in November corrected down from 50 to 49.5 points, entering the stagnation zone.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during the Asian session. The instrument practically did not depart from its opening level at around 108.62. The yen ignored moderately optimistic macroeconomic data from Japan. Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy rose in October by 0.7% YoY, accelerating from the previous 0.5% YoY. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.5% YoY. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 48.4 to 48.6 points, slightly not reaching the expected values of 48.7 points.

    XAU/USD

    Gold is stable during the Asian session and is trading at the level of opening at 1463.72. The day before, quotations showed moderate negative dynamics, which was caused by the appearance of optimistic news around the process of trade negotiations between China and the United States. It became known that Beijing invited a team of American negotiators to a new round of discussion of the agreement, despite continuing disagreements. Meanwhile, quotes are supported by the situation surrounding ongoing protests in Hong Kong. The United States have passed a series of bills that support civil protest and seek to exert pressure on China, recalling the need to respect human rights.

  8. #908
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-25 08:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, slightly correcting after a sharp decline at the end of last week. The reason for the negative dynamics was the weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Markit Composite PMI in the euro area fell from 50.6 to 50.3 points in November, while investors expected the indicator to rise to 50.9 points. At the same time, Services PMI decreased from 52.2 to 51.5 points, while Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.9 to 46.6 points, which was better than market expectations of 46.4 points. In addition, the market responded to Christine Lagarde's first appearance as the new ECB President. Lagarde avoided any details in her speech, but noted the need for a "revision of European monetary policy". In addition to applying traditional measures, the head of the European regulator plans to bet on stimulating investment in business and increasing productivity.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is growing slightly against USD today, opening with a small gap upwards after a sharp decline last Friday. Currently, the pound is trading near 1.2844, adding about 0.07%. GBP is still under pressure from the macroeconomic statistics from Great Britain published on Friday. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 to 48.3 points in November against a forecast of a decline of only to 49 points. Markit Services PMI corrected from 50 to 48.6 points with a neutral outlook. Meanwhile, investors were optimistic about the statement by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who presented the Conservative Party’s election manifesto over the weekend. In addition, Johnson plans to send a draft agreement with the EU to Parliament by December 25. Early parliamentary elections are to be held in the country on December 12.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is showing moderate growth against USD, correcting after the "bearish" end of the past week. To date, the pair has reached 0.6794, adding about 0.13%. The instrument is supported once again by a changing trend in sentiments around US-Chinese trade negotiations. The market was inspired after a series of optimistic comments by Donald Trump that the parties are close to concluding an agreement. However, the date and place of signing the final agreement are still not defined, and differences remain between Washington and Beijing. A more confident growth of the instrument is hindered by rather weak macroeconomic statistics published in Australia. The data on the PMI published last Friday turned out to be worse than the average market forecasts. In particular, Commonwealth Services PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.5 points in November, with a very optimistic forecast for growth to 53.5 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD is growing paired with JPY, updating local highs of November 19 at 108.79 (+0.1%). The growth of the instrument is due to the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from the US last Friday, as well as the growth of optimistic sentiment regarding the possible conclusion of a trade agreement between the US and China. The US Markit Manufacturing PMI grew from 51.3 to 52.2 points in November against the forecast of increase to 51.5 points. Services PMI rose from 50.6 to 51.6 points with the forecast of 51 points. During the day, investors expect publication from Japan of data on the dynamics of coinciding and leading indicators, but it is unlikely that these indicators will noticeably affect the dynamics of the instrument.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, trading near 1461.24 (–0.04%). Reduction in quotes was due to the growth of optimism regarding the possibility of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. Commenting on the current situation, Donald Trump noted that countries are "very close" to the conclusion of the agreement, but there are still no approximate dates. Strengthening the position of the American currency also contributes to the development of corrective moods in the instrument against the background of the publication of good macroeconomic statistics on PMI in the USA in November.

  9. #909
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-26 08:38 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR again shows ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 1.1012. The euro remains under pressure against the backdrop of a growing dollar, which finds support among the improved prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. It became known that the PRC will nevertheless raise fines for violating the law on intellectual property rights, which previously served as a very significant obstacle to the dialogue between the two countries. However, this does not mean that the parties are ready to sign the final agreement, although there is not much time left before the date of a possible increase in import duties on the part of the United States. During the day, investors expect speeches by representatives of the ECB, who will comment on the results of the first speech by Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB.

    GBP/USD

    GBP remains relatively stable during the Asian session, slightly correcting (–0.05%) after moderate growth the day before. Support for the pound, as before, is provided by forecasts regarding the upcoming elections to the British Parliament. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party has good chances to get an overwhelming number of seats in Parliament, which will allow it to ratify the existing agreement with the EU. Currently, more than 40% of voters support Boris Johnson, while slightly less than 30% are ready to vote for the Labor Party. CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided slight support to the instrument yesterday. In November, sales fell by 3% MoM after a decline of 10% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.10% MoM.

    NZD/USD

    NZD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6420, adding about 0.21%. At the opening of the session, there was a decline to 0.6404, caused by the growth of correctional sentiment in favor of the US currency. Active support for NZD is provided by statistics from New Zealand. In Q3 2019, Retail Sales grew by 1.6% QoQ after growing by 0.2% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator also turned out better than its forecasts (+1.2% QoQ). Core Retail Sales rose by 1.8% QoQ with a forecast of +1.5% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    USD showed strong growth against JPY at the opening of today's Asian session, rising to 109.19 and updating the local highs of November 12. The "bullish" activity on the instrument has significantly decreased, but the dollar retains its advantage, adding about 0.04%. The US currency is supported by news regarding US-Chinese trade negotiations. Investors believe that the parties will have time to agree before the deadline for the next increase in import duties. China is expected to increase fines for violation of intellectual property rights. In turn, support for the yen during the Asian session was provided by the data on Corporate Services Price Index in Japan. In October, prices rose sharply by 2.1% YoY after a slight increase of 0.5% YoY a month earlier, which may indicate a gradual acceleration of inflation in the country.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are located near local lows of November 12 (at 1451.34). In general, the instrument maintains a moderate downtrend that has formed in the middle of last week. Pressure on gold quotes is exerted by growing optimism about the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. According to the media, Washington and Beijing are "very close" to the conclusion of a preliminary agreement, but there is still little information. In addition, the situation with the upcoming UK parliamentary elections, which are expected to contribute to the early conclusion of a trade deal with the EU, also contributes to increased demand for risky assets.

  10. #910
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-27 08:53 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR is moderately declining against USD in today's Asian session, testing the level of 1.1010 (–0.11%). Some pressure on the euro is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published the day before. However, it is worth noting that the market is currently quite thin, and investors are in no hurry to open new positions due to the upcoming Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday. During the day, traders expect publication of German Import Price Index for October, as well as statements by ECB representative Philip Lane. The main attention of the market will be focused on American data on the annual GDP growth rates for Q3 2019 and the dynamics of Personal Income and Expenses for October.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is slightly declining during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is trading at 1.2854, losing about 0.05%. The pound is retreating amid a rising dollar; however, a more confident downtrend is hindered by positive expectations about the December parliamentary elections. According to a public opinion poll, the Conservative party, led by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has good chances of winning, which will allow it to ratify the existing deal with the EU with minimal resistance in the future. Slight pressure on the pound during today's Asian session is exerted by Retail Prices data from the UK. BRC Shop Price Index in October fell by 0.5% YoY, accelerating the fall from the previous –0.4% YoY.

    NZD/USD

    NZD is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near its weekly local high at 0.6432. The development of the "bullish" trend was supported by good macroeconomic data on the dynamics of Retail Sales from New Zealand. During the Asian session, moderate support for the pair is provided by data on New Zealand Exports. At the end of October, Exports grew from 4.36B to 5.03B dollars, which turned out to be better than the average market expectations. Imports for the same period also increased from 5.68B to 6.05B dollars. The Trade Deficit in October amounted to –1.013B dollars compared to the previous –1.319B dollars, while the forecast assumed the deficit to increase to the level of –1.621B.

    USD/JPY

    USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.08%. The dollar is supported by optimistic news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China, which contribute to increased demand for risky assets. The day before, the Ministry of Commerce of China reiterated that telephone calls between the parties "have made progress in resolving a number of issues". However, as before, no specific information was received, and the market can only guess when exactly Washington and Beijing plan to sign a preliminary trade agreement. With the opening of the American session, investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Among other things, the market expects the release of data on the dynamics of Personal Consumption, Pending Home Sales, annual data on GDP for Q3 2019, and statistics on Personal Expense and Income for October.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session, correcting slightly after moderate growth the day before. Quotes are located at around 1458.83, losing about 0.22%. The instrument was supported by uncertain prospects around the US-Chinese trade negotiations, despite restrained optimistic comments by officials. In addition, gold rose in response to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on Consumer Confidence in the United States. The market also reacted to Jerome Powell's speech at the Chamber of Commerce. During the annual dinner, the head of the Fed was rather optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States, which was perceived by investors as a refusal to further raise rates in the near future.

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