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This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review 2019-11-28 08:47 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.02%. ...

      
   
  1. #911
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-28 08:47 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.02%. The instrument continues trading near 1.1000, which was actively tested for a breakdown the day before. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the USA, published on Wednesday, continue to exert moderate pressure on the euro. Annual data on US GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 2.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous 1.9% YoY. Analysts had expected the same growth dynamics to maintain (+1.9% YoY). Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air in October rose sharply by 1.2% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.3% MoM. Chicago PMI in November rose from 43.2 to 46.3 points, which turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts about growth to 47 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the euro area on the level of business sentiment. Special attention should be paid to the data from Germany on the November dynamics of Consumer Prices.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is growing during the Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The instrument develops an upward momentum formed the day before under the influence of the expectations of the publication of an updated opinion poll from YouGov. Traditionally, forecasts of this kind have a strong influence on the markets, since they enjoy a fairly high trust. According to a published forecast, in the upcoming elections to the British Parliament, 43% of the seats may be taken by candidates from the Conservative Party. The Labor Party can tentatively only get 32% of the seats, which provides Prime Minister Boris Johnson with a confident majority in parliament.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is showing an active decline during today's Asian session, trading near local lows of October 17 (0.6758). The instrument continues to develop a "bearish" impulse, formed yesterday when the Australian dollar was under pressure from publications from Westpac. According to Westpac Banking Corp. representative, the RBA may lower its interest rate twice until mid-2020, and is also very likely to initiate a quantitative easing program. Slight pressure on the instrument during the Asian session is exerted by data from Australia. Private New Capital Expenditure in Q3 2019 decreased by 0.2% QoQ after a decrease of 0.5% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator turned out to be worse than its forecast, which assumed a decrease of only 0.1% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, losing about 0.09%. The instrument is corrected from local highs at 109.59, updated the day before (highs of May 31). The development of correctional dynamics for the instrument is facilitated by technical factors that are exacerbated by closed markets in the United States due to Thanksgiving. At the same time, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan hinder the development of a more confident decline. Japanese Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 14.4% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth last month. Analysts had expected zero dynamics. In annual terms, the decline in sales was –7.1% YoY after an increase of 9.2% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 4.4% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.09%. The instrument is recovering after a moderate decline yesterday, which was due to the publication of a number of good macroeconomic indicators from the United States. In particular, investors were optimistic about the data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q3 2019, which showed an increase from the previous 1.9% YoY to 2.1% YoY. Optimistic forecasts regarding the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the UK also provide additional pressure on gold. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain is gaining a confident majority of seats in parliament, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the existing agreement with the EU with minimal resistance and hold Brexit before the next deadline.

  2. #912
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-11-29 08:40 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a slight increase against USD during the Asian session, adding about 0.02%. Market activity remains low due to stock exchanges closed in the United States due to Thanksgiving. Investors remain focused on the situation around US-China trade negotiations, as well as the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Europe on Thursday. European data had a mixed effect on the position of the instrument. Business Climate indicator in November fell by 0.23 points after falling by 0.2 points in the previous month. Analysts expected the decline of 0.14 points. At the same time, Business and Consumer Survey for the same period increased from 100.8 to 101.3 points against the forecast of growth to 101.0 points. The euro was under pressure from the German data. German Consumer Price Index in November showed a sharp decrease of 0.8% MoM after an increase of 0.1% MoM a month earlier. Experts expected the appearance of negative dynamics at the level of –0.6% MoM.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near 1.2910. The instrument receives support from optimistic forecasts regarding the outcome of the December parliamentary elections; however, market activity remains low. According to a number of opinion polls, the Conservative Party can win the most confident victory in the last 30 years, ensuring unhindered ratification of the agreement with the EU. Some pressure on the pound during the Asian session is exerted by weak data from the UK. GfK Consumer Confidence index in November showed a decrease of 14 points, which coincided with the forecasts. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals for October.

    NZD/USD

    NZD is trading slightly upwards during today's Asian session, adding about 0.1%. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by technical factors that are exacerbated by closed due to Thanksgiving markets in the United States. At the same time, the news from the USA turns out to be alarming. Donald trump signed two new laws aimed at supporting civil protest in Hong Kong. The first law limits the supply of weapons to disperse the protesters, and the second one gives the United States the right to evaluate and confirm China's observance of Hong Kong's special status. Investors fear that these steps may complicate the already tense situation with the negotiations. In addition, Washington may introduce new import duties against China in December if the deal is not signed. Slight support for the instrument on Friday is provided by the data on Consumer Confidence from New Zealand. According to data from Roy Morgan, November Consumer Confidence index rose from 118 to 121 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD is declining during today's Asian session, losing about 0.05% and trading around 109.45. Conflicting macroeconomic statistics from Japan has influence on the instrument on Friday. Tokyo Core CPI rose in November from 0.5% YoY to 0.6% YoY, which was in line with expectations. At the same time, Tokyo CPI accelerated in November from 0.4% YoY to 0.8% YoY. Meanwhile, investors are disappointed with the dynamics of industrial production. In October, Industrial Production fell by 4.2% MoM after rising by 1.7% MoM in September. Analysts had expected the decline by 2.1% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in production was –7.4% YoY after an increase of 1.3% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 1.9% YoY.

    Gold

    Gold prices show moderate growth during the Asian session, adding about 0.17% and testing level of 1459.00 for the breakdown. The instrument receives moderate support amid the adoption of new bills in the United States aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. Investors fear that Donald Trump’s new steps in this direction could significantly complicate the process of signing a trade agreement, which the parties have been unsuccessfully trying to conclude for several months.

  3. #913
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-12-02 08:43 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR is weakening against USD during the Asian session, losing about 0.02%. The instrument is slightly correcting after growth at the end of last week, which allowed the euro to consolidate at a local high since November 25 at 1.1027. The strengthening of EUR last Friday was facilitated by the moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index rose by 1.3% YoY in November after rising by 1.1% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 1.2% YoY. Consumer Price Index for the same period accelerated from +0.7% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which also exceeded expectations of +0.9% YoY. Unemployment Rate in October expectedly decreased from 7.6% to 7.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of data on the EU Manufacturing PMI for November, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

    GBP/USD

    GBP opened today with a moderate downward gap against USD and is currently trading near 1.2910, losing about 0.16%. The opening shifts were caused by investors returning to the market after the holidays in the USA and the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from China on Saturday, while the general news background did not change much. The pound remains under pressure from uncertainty over the upcoming British parliamentary elections, despite quite clear forecasts. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain can get a confident majority, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and put an end to the fairly protracted history with Brexit. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on the UK Markit Manufacturing PMI in November. After the opening of the American session, similar indices will be released in the United States.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is showing moderate growth against USD, gaining 0.2%. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the publication of strong data from China, while Australian statistics are contradictory. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 51.7 to 51.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 51.4 points. Australian data, by contrast, indicated a decrease in Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI from 50 to 49.9 points. AiG Manufacturing PMI in November fell sharply from 51.6 to 48.1 points. Building Approvals issued in October fell by 8.1% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from –17% YoY in September to –23.6% YoY in October. Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of the RBA decision on the interest rate. It is predicted that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy and will keep the rate at the same level of 0.75%.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.19% and updating local highs of May 30 (109.71). The growth of the dollar is facilitated by a good demand for risk, as well as moderately optimistic signals from the US economy. In addition, investors are responding to the situation around US-Chinese trade negotiations. After Trump signed bills to support protesters in Hong Kong last Wednesday, markets expected a response from Beijing, but there was no reaction, which may indirectly indicate China’s interest in signing the first stage of the agreement in the near future. Additional pressure on the yen on Friday was exerted by data on industrial production. In October, the indicator crashed by 4.2% MoM and 7.4% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –2.1% MoM and +1.9% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, losing 0.3%. The instrument is correcting after active growth at the end of last week, due to the correction of the US currency. Moderate support for gold continues to be provided by the uncertain situation surrounding US and Chinese trade negotiations, especially after the adoption of a number of bills in the US aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. However, to date, China has not taken any retaliatory measures that could significantly worsen the prospects for signing a preliminary trade agreement.

  4. #914
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-12-03 08:37 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR is stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1.1088), updated the day before, when the instrument managed to show steady growth. The positive dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by strong data on business activity in Europe, as well as positive statistics from China, which somewhat eased concerns about a further slowdown in the global economy. Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in November rose from 46.6 to 46.9 points with a neutral forecast. German Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 43.8 to 44.1 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of European Producer Price Indices for October and a speech by ECB representative Benoit Coeure.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, being located near its local highs, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by macroeconomic statistics released on Monday. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK in November rose from 48.3 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecast. At the same time, US data turned out worse than expected. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November declined from 48.3 to 48.1 points with the forecast of growth to 49.2 points. ISM Manufacturing Prices in November rose from 45.5 to 46.7 points, not reaching the forecast of 47 points.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is showing strong growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.22%. The instrument is supported by the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the rate at 0.75%. AUD is also supported by strong data from China and the rather vulnerable position of USD, which is again under pressure from uncertain prospects. The day before, Donald trump introduced import duties on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, and also made harsh criticism of the Fed, urging to adjust the high exchange rate of the national currency.

    USD/JPY

    USD is correcting against JPY during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.23%. The growth of the instrument replaced the confident correction yesterday, as a result of which the dollar retreated from the local highs of May 30. Contradictory macroeconomic statistics published in the USA continue to exert pressure on the pair. Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.2 to 52.6 points in November with a neutral forecast. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November declined from 48.3 to 48.1 points with the forecast of growth to 49.2 points.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are located near the opening level of 1463.84. The instrument is supported by weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA, as well as the continuing uncertainty surrounding US-Chinese trade relations. The PRC took retaliatory sanctions against the American Human Rights Watch, which actively supports civil protests in Hong Kong. In addition, Beijing has banned the mooring of US ships in Hong Kong. It is highly likely that the parties will not be able to resume full-scale trade negotiations before the end of this year. In December, markets also fear a possible increase in import duties on Chinese goods, which could offset all the progress already achieved in the negotiations.

  5. #915
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-12-04 08:42 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR shows a slight decline against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.04%. The pair continues to consolidate near local highs at the level of 1.1092, updated the day before amid conflicting external factors. Moderate support for the euro is provided by positive macroeconomic indicators on Manufacturing PMIs, which were released on Monday. Tuesday's data turned out to be significantly more restrained. Producer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM, which coincided with the dynamics of the previous month. In annual terms, production inflation fell by 1.9% YoY after falling by 1.2% YoY in September. During the day, investors expect the publication of European Services PMI, which will later be compared with similar statistics from the United States.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, located near the opening level of 1.2990. Moderate support for the instrument is still provided by the expectation of parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12, where, according to opinion polls, the Conservative Party should win a landslide victory. The victory of the conservatives will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and close the urgent issue once and for all. However, analysts are already discussing the future of Great Britain outside the European Union. In particular, it is noted that if London is unable to agree with the EU on free trade, the UK economy will suffer significantly, and the rate may adjust to 1.15 dollars per pound.

    AUD/USD

    AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, correcting by about 0.26%. The decline in the instrument proceeds amid the publication of conflicting macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.4% QoQ after a growth of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator came out worse than its forecast for growth of 0.5% QoQ. In annual terms, the Australian economy accelerated from 1.4% YoY to 1.7% YoY, meeting the expectations of investors. Commonwealth Services PMI rose in November from 49.5 to 49.7 points with a neutral outlook. AiG Services PMI in November fell from 54.2 to 53.7 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD continues to develop a downward trend in trading against JPY, retreating to new local lows since November 22. The pair has been losing about 0.07% since the opening of today's trading session, retreating amid the publication of moderately optimistic data from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 49.7 to 50.3 points, returning to the surplus zone after a sharp decline in October. Investors had expected growth to 50.4 points. Additional support for the Japanese currency is provided by the deteriorating prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China, after Donald Trump noted that the agreement could be signed closer to the presidential election in 2020. In addition, the US president still intends to raise import duties on Chinese imports for USD 160 billion in total from December 15.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1481.44), updated the day before. The growth of quotations yesterday was facilitated by investors' flight from risks, after the United States introduced higher tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the possible postponement of the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China to November 2020, when the US presidential election will be held. Obviously, this is too long for such an issue, especially considering the speed of change of events in the modern world. Moreover, on December 15, Donald Trump again threatened to increase import duties on Chinese goods, which could put an end to all the progress that had been achieved over a long time.

  6. #916
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-12-05 09:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.04%. The instrument is recovering somewhat after the ambiguous dynamics yesterday, which, at the same time, led to the updating of local highs from November 5. The euro was supported by strong data from the euro area. Markit Services PMI in the euro area rose in November from 51.5 to 51.9 points with a neutral forecast. Markit Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.3 to 50.6 points, which also turned out to be higher than the projected values of 50.3 points. Separately, it is worth highlighting data from Germany. Services PMI rose from 51.3 to 51.7 points in November (with a forecast of 51.3 points), while the Composite PMI rose from 49.2 to 49.4 points, which also turned out to be better than forecasts of 49.2 points.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed noticeable growth against USD yesterday, updating record highs of May 7. "Bullish" trend can be traced during today's Asian session; however, its activity is noticeably lower. GBP adds about 0.07%. The growth of the British currency is supported by the expectations of the Conservative Party winning the upcoming early parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12. Additional support for the instrument on Wednesday was provided by optimistic data on business activity in the UK services sector. November Markit PMI rose from 48.6 to 49.3 points with a neutral forecast.

    AUD/USD

    AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, declining by about 0.24%. The instrument responds to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australia's Retail Sales in October showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.2% MoM in September. Analysts had expected acceleration of the increase to 0.3% MoM. Exports from Australia in October showed a 5% decline after rising by 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant drop in exports led to a marked decrease in the surplus of the trade balance. In October, the balance amounted to 4.5B Australian dollars after 7.2B in September. Analysts had expected a balance surplus of AUD 6.1B.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after corrective growth the day before, thanks to which the US currency managed to retreat from its local lows of November 21. USD strengthened its position, despite the appearance of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US on Wednesday. ISM Services PMI in November fell from 54.7 to 53.9 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 54.5 points. At the same time, the Composite PMI for the same period increased from 51.9 to 52 points. An additional negative point was the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. In November, the figure rose by 67K new jobs after an increase of 121K in the previous month. Analysts had expected a much more significant increase of 140K.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is slightly corrected after predominantly negative trading yesterday, which formed in response to the news about US-Chinese trade negotiations. Bloomberg reported that the parties are close to agreeing on the volumes of tariffs that are proposed to be canceled as part of the first phase of the trade agreement. The deal itself, according to Bloomberg, may be concluded before December 15.

  7. #917
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-12-06 08:46 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after strong growth, which, however, failed to lead to the renewal of previous local highs at 1.1115. The European statistics published on Thursday, which turned out to be not the most successful, remain in the spotlight of investors. The EU GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with the data of the previous period and the forecasts. At the same time, Retail Sales in October fell by 0.6% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in September. Investors expected a reduction of 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, sales slowed down from 2.7% YoY to 1.4% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 2.2% YoY. Employment Change in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, which coincided with the dynamics in the previous quarter.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of May 6. The pound confidently strengthened during the last three trading sessions, which was caused by not the strongest positions of the American currency, and also by the growth of confidence in the Conservative Party's victory in the British parliamentary elections on 12 December. This will allow the Parliament to ratify the deal with the EU and implement Brexit, meeting the new deadlines by the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of the November report on the US labor market, which could trigger the appearance of correctional dynamics in favor of the US currency.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.14%. The instrument is recovering after the decline yesterday caused by the publication of contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian Exports fell by 5% in October after rising 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant decline in exports led to a decrease in the trade surplus in October from 6.85B to 4.50B Australian dollars with a forecast of 6.10B. The correctional growth of the instrument during the Asian session is not hindered by the publication of weak AiG Construction Index, which continued to decline in November and fell from 43.9 to 40 points, which turned out to be worse than the average expectations.

    USD/JPY

    USD is declining against JPY during the Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The yen is again in demand amid growing uncertainty around US-Chinese trade negotiations. Donald Trump’s restrained statements that “the negotiations are proceeding well” weakly support the market, which is waiting for December 15, when the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods, which can offset all the progress achieved by the parties. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Friday does not support the yen. Average Cash Earnings in October increased by 0.5% YoY, coinciding with the data for the previous month. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 1.1% YoY. Household Spending in October fell sharply by 5.1% YoY after growth by 9.5% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 3% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, trading near 1475.00. Gold quotes have changed little recently since investors expect the situation to develop in a trade conflict between the United States and China. Earlier this week, information appeared that the conclusion of the agreement may have to be postponed to November 2020, when the next presidential election will be held in the United States. Trump later reiterated that “negotiations are going well,” and moderate optimism gradually began to return to the markets. However, there is little time left until December 15, and new import duties, if they are introduced by the USA, will almost certainly put an end to the current progress in the negotiations and everything will have to be started from scratch.

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