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Morning Market Review
2019-11-28 08:47 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.02%. The instrument continues trading near 1.1000, which was actively tested for a breakdown the day before. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the USA, published on Wednesday, continue to exert moderate pressure on the euro. Annual data on US GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 2.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous 1.9% YoY. Analysts had expected the same growth dynamics to maintain (+1.9% YoY). Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air in October rose sharply by 1.2% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.3% MoM. Chicago PMI in November rose from 43.2 to 46.3 points, which turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts about growth to 47 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the euro area on the level of business sentiment. Special attention should be paid to the data from Germany on the November dynamics of Consumer Prices.
GBP/USD
GBP is growing during the Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The instrument develops an upward momentum formed the day before under the influence of the expectations of the publication of an updated opinion poll from YouGov. Traditionally, forecasts of this kind have a strong influence on the markets, since they enjoy a fairly high trust. According to a published forecast, in the upcoming elections to the British Parliament, 43% of the seats may be taken by candidates from the Conservative Party. The Labor Party can tentatively only get 32% of the seats, which provides Prime Minister Boris Johnson with a confident majority in parliament.
AUD/USD
AUD is showing an active decline during today's Asian session, trading near local lows of October 17 (0.6758). The instrument continues to develop a "bearish" impulse, formed yesterday when the Australian dollar was under pressure from publications from Westpac. According to Westpac Banking Corp. representative, the RBA may lower its interest rate twice until mid-2020, and is also very likely to initiate a quantitative easing program. Slight pressure on the instrument during the Asian session is exerted by data from Australia. Private New Capital Expenditure in Q3 2019 decreased by 0.2% QoQ after a decrease of 0.5% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator turned out to be worse than its forecast, which assumed a decrease of only 0.1% QoQ.
USD/JPY
USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, losing about 0.09%. The instrument is corrected from local highs at 109.59, updated the day before (highs of May 31). The development of correctional dynamics for the instrument is facilitated by technical factors that are exacerbated by closed markets in the United States due to Thanksgiving. At the same time, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan hinder the development of a more confident decline. Japanese Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 14.4% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth last month. Analysts had expected zero dynamics. In annual terms, the decline in sales was –7.1% YoY after an increase of 9.2% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 4.4% YoY.
XAU/USD
Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.09%. The instrument is recovering after a moderate decline yesterday, which was due to the publication of a number of good macroeconomic indicators from the United States. In particular, investors were optimistic about the data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q3 2019, which showed an increase from the previous 1.9% YoY to 2.1% YoY. Optimistic forecasts regarding the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the UK also provide additional pressure on gold. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain is gaining a confident majority of seats in parliament, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the existing agreement with the EU with minimal resistance and hold Brexit before the next deadline.
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Morning Market Review
2019-11-29 08:40 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR showed a slight increase against USD during the Asian session, adding about 0.02%. Market activity remains low due to stock exchanges closed in the United States due to Thanksgiving. Investors remain focused on the situation around US-China trade negotiations, as well as the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Europe on Thursday. European data had a mixed effect on the position of the instrument. Business Climate indicator in November fell by 0.23 points after falling by 0.2 points in the previous month. Analysts expected the decline of 0.14 points. At the same time, Business and Consumer Survey for the same period increased from 100.8 to 101.3 points against the forecast of growth to 101.0 points. The euro was under pressure from the German data. German Consumer Price Index in November showed a sharp decrease of 0.8% MoM after an increase of 0.1% MoM a month earlier. Experts expected the appearance of negative dynamics at the level of –0.6% MoM.
GBP/USD
GBP shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near 1.2910. The instrument receives support from optimistic forecasts regarding the outcome of the December parliamentary elections; however, market activity remains low. According to a number of opinion polls, the Conservative Party can win the most confident victory in the last 30 years, ensuring unhindered ratification of the agreement with the EU. Some pressure on the pound during the Asian session is exerted by weak data from the UK. GfK Consumer Confidence index in November showed a decrease of 14 points, which coincided with the forecasts. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals for October.
NZD/USD
NZD is trading slightly upwards during today's Asian session, adding about 0.1%. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by technical factors that are exacerbated by closed due to Thanksgiving markets in the United States. At the same time, the news from the USA turns out to be alarming. Donald trump signed two new laws aimed at supporting civil protest in Hong Kong. The first law limits the supply of weapons to disperse the protesters, and the second one gives the United States the right to evaluate and confirm China's observance of Hong Kong's special status. Investors fear that these steps may complicate the already tense situation with the negotiations. In addition, Washington may introduce new import duties against China in December if the deal is not signed. Slight support for the instrument on Friday is provided by the data on Consumer Confidence from New Zealand. According to data from Roy Morgan, November Consumer Confidence index rose from 118 to 121 points.
USD/JPY
USD is declining during today's Asian session, losing about 0.05% and trading around 109.45. Conflicting macroeconomic statistics from Japan has influence on the instrument on Friday. Tokyo Core CPI rose in November from 0.5% YoY to 0.6% YoY, which was in line with expectations. At the same time, Tokyo CPI accelerated in November from 0.4% YoY to 0.8% YoY. Meanwhile, investors are disappointed with the dynamics of industrial production. In October, Industrial Production fell by 4.2% MoM after rising by 1.7% MoM in September. Analysts had expected the decline by 2.1% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in production was –7.4% YoY after an increase of 1.3% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 1.9% YoY.
Gold
Gold prices show moderate growth during the Asian session, adding about 0.17% and testing level of 1459.00 for the breakdown. The instrument receives moderate support amid the adoption of new bills in the United States aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. Investors fear that Donald Trump’s new steps in this direction could significantly complicate the process of signing a trade agreement, which the parties have been unsuccessfully trying to conclude for several months.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-02 08:43 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR is weakening against USD during the Asian session, losing about 0.02%. The instrument is slightly correcting after growth at the end of last week, which allowed the euro to consolidate at a local high since November 25 at 1.1027. The strengthening of EUR last Friday was facilitated by the moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index rose by 1.3% YoY in November after rising by 1.1% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 1.2% YoY. Consumer Price Index for the same period accelerated from +0.7% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which also exceeded expectations of +0.9% YoY. Unemployment Rate in October expectedly decreased from 7.6% to 7.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of data on the EU Manufacturing PMI for November, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
GBP/USD
GBP opened today with a moderate downward gap against USD and is currently trading near 1.2910, losing about 0.16%. The opening shifts were caused by investors returning to the market after the holidays in the USA and the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from China on Saturday, while the general news background did not change much. The pound remains under pressure from uncertainty over the upcoming British parliamentary elections, despite quite clear forecasts. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain can get a confident majority, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and put an end to the fairly protracted history with Brexit. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on the UK Markit Manufacturing PMI in November. After the opening of the American session, similar indices will be released in the United States.
AUD/USD
AUD is showing moderate growth against USD, gaining 0.2%. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the publication of strong data from China, while Australian statistics are contradictory. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 51.7 to 51.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 51.4 points. Australian data, by contrast, indicated a decrease in Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI from 50 to 49.9 points. AiG Manufacturing PMI in November fell sharply from 51.6 to 48.1 points. Building Approvals issued in October fell by 8.1% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from –17% YoY in September to –23.6% YoY in October. Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of the RBA decision on the interest rate. It is predicted that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy and will keep the rate at the same level of 0.75%.
USD/JPY
USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.19% and updating local highs of May 30 (109.71). The growth of the dollar is facilitated by a good demand for risk, as well as moderately optimistic signals from the US economy. In addition, investors are responding to the situation around US-Chinese trade negotiations. After Trump signed bills to support protesters in Hong Kong last Wednesday, markets expected a response from Beijing, but there was no reaction, which may indirectly indicate China’s interest in signing the first stage of the agreement in the near future. Additional pressure on the yen on Friday was exerted by data on industrial production. In October, the indicator crashed by 4.2% MoM and 7.4% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –2.1% MoM and +1.9% YoY.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, losing 0.3%. The instrument is correcting after active growth at the end of last week, due to the correction of the US currency. Moderate support for gold continues to be provided by the uncertain situation surrounding US and Chinese trade negotiations, especially after the adoption of a number of bills in the US aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. However, to date, China has not taken any retaliatory measures that could significantly worsen the prospects for signing a preliminary trade agreement.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-03 08:37 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR is stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1.1088), updated the day before, when the instrument managed to show steady growth. The positive dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by strong data on business activity in Europe, as well as positive statistics from China, which somewhat eased concerns about a further slowdown in the global economy. Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in November rose from 46.6 to 46.9 points with a neutral forecast. German Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 43.8 to 44.1 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of European Producer Price Indices for October and a speech by ECB representative Benoit Coeure.
GBP/USD
GBP shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, being located near its local highs, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by macroeconomic statistics released on Monday. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK in November rose from 48.3 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecast. At the same time, US data turned out worse than expected. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November declined from 48.3 to 48.1 points with the forecast of growth to 49.2 points. ISM Manufacturing Prices in November rose from 45.5 to 46.7 points, not reaching the forecast of 47 points.
AUD/USD
AUD is showing strong growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.22%. The instrument is supported by the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the rate at 0.75%. AUD is also supported by strong data from China and the rather vulnerable position of USD, which is again under pressure from uncertain prospects. The day before, Donald trump introduced import duties on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, and also made harsh criticism of the Fed, urging to adjust the high exchange rate of the national currency.
USD/JPY
USD is correcting against JPY during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.23%. The growth of the instrument replaced the confident correction yesterday, as a result of which the dollar retreated from the local highs of May 30. Contradictory macroeconomic statistics published in the USA continue to exert pressure on the pair. Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.2 to 52.6 points in November with a neutral forecast. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November declined from 48.3 to 48.1 points with the forecast of growth to 49.2 points.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are located near the opening level of 1463.84. The instrument is supported by weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA, as well as the continuing uncertainty surrounding US-Chinese trade relations. The PRC took retaliatory sanctions against the American Human Rights Watch, which actively supports civil protests in Hong Kong. In addition, Beijing has banned the mooring of US ships in Hong Kong. It is highly likely that the parties will not be able to resume full-scale trade negotiations before the end of this year. In December, markets also fear a possible increase in import duties on Chinese goods, which could offset all the progress already achieved in the negotiations.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-04 08:42 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR shows a slight decline against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.04%. The pair continues to consolidate near local highs at the level of 1.1092, updated the day before amid conflicting external factors. Moderate support for the euro is provided by positive macroeconomic indicators on Manufacturing PMIs, which were released on Monday. Tuesday's data turned out to be significantly more restrained. Producer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM, which coincided with the dynamics of the previous month. In annual terms, production inflation fell by 1.9% YoY after falling by 1.2% YoY in September. During the day, investors expect the publication of European Services PMI, which will later be compared with similar statistics from the United States.
GBP/USD
GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, located near the opening level of 1.2990. Moderate support for the instrument is still provided by the expectation of parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12, where, according to opinion polls, the Conservative Party should win a landslide victory. The victory of the conservatives will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and close the urgent issue once and for all. However, analysts are already discussing the future of Great Britain outside the European Union. In particular, it is noted that if London is unable to agree with the EU on free trade, the UK economy will suffer significantly, and the rate may adjust to 1.15 dollars per pound.
AUD/USD
AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, correcting by about 0.26%. The decline in the instrument proceeds amid the publication of conflicting macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.4% QoQ after a growth of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator came out worse than its forecast for growth of 0.5% QoQ. In annual terms, the Australian economy accelerated from 1.4% YoY to 1.7% YoY, meeting the expectations of investors. Commonwealth Services PMI rose in November from 49.5 to 49.7 points with a neutral outlook. AiG Services PMI in November fell from 54.2 to 53.7 points.
USD/JPY
USD continues to develop a downward trend in trading against JPY, retreating to new local lows since November 22. The pair has been losing about 0.07% since the opening of today's trading session, retreating amid the publication of moderately optimistic data from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 49.7 to 50.3 points, returning to the surplus zone after a sharp decline in October. Investors had expected growth to 50.4 points. Additional support for the Japanese currency is provided by the deteriorating prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China, after Donald Trump noted that the agreement could be signed closer to the presidential election in 2020. In addition, the US president still intends to raise import duties on Chinese imports for USD 160 billion in total from December 15.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1481.44), updated the day before. The growth of quotations yesterday was facilitated by investors' flight from risks, after the United States introduced higher tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the possible postponement of the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China to November 2020, when the US presidential election will be held. Obviously, this is too long for such an issue, especially considering the speed of change of events in the modern world. Moreover, on December 15, Donald Trump again threatened to increase import duties on Chinese goods, which could put an end to all the progress that had been achieved over a long time.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-05 09:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.04%. The instrument is recovering somewhat after the ambiguous dynamics yesterday, which, at the same time, led to the updating of local highs from November 5. The euro was supported by strong data from the euro area. Markit Services PMI in the euro area rose in November from 51.5 to 51.9 points with a neutral forecast. Markit Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.3 to 50.6 points, which also turned out to be higher than the projected values of 50.3 points. Separately, it is worth highlighting data from Germany. Services PMI rose from 51.3 to 51.7 points in November (with a forecast of 51.3 points), while the Composite PMI rose from 49.2 to 49.4 points, which also turned out to be better than forecasts of 49.2 points.
GBP/USD
GBP showed noticeable growth against USD yesterday, updating record highs of May 7. "Bullish" trend can be traced during today's Asian session; however, its activity is noticeably lower. GBP adds about 0.07%. The growth of the British currency is supported by the expectations of the Conservative Party winning the upcoming early parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12. Additional support for the instrument on Wednesday was provided by optimistic data on business activity in the UK services sector. November Markit PMI rose from 48.6 to 49.3 points with a neutral forecast.
AUD/USD
AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, declining by about 0.24%. The instrument responds to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australia's Retail Sales in October showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.2% MoM in September. Analysts had expected acceleration of the increase to 0.3% MoM. Exports from Australia in October showed a 5% decline after rising by 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant drop in exports led to a marked decrease in the surplus of the trade balance. In October, the balance amounted to 4.5B Australian dollars after 7.2B in September. Analysts had expected a balance surplus of AUD 6.1B.
USD/JPY
USD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after corrective growth the day before, thanks to which the US currency managed to retreat from its local lows of November 21. USD strengthened its position, despite the appearance of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US on Wednesday. ISM Services PMI in November fell from 54.7 to 53.9 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 54.5 points. At the same time, the Composite PMI for the same period increased from 51.9 to 52 points. An additional negative point was the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. In November, the figure rose by 67K new jobs after an increase of 121K in the previous month. Analysts had expected a much more significant increase of 140K.
XAU/USD
Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is slightly corrected after predominantly negative trading yesterday, which formed in response to the news about US-Chinese trade negotiations. Bloomberg reported that the parties are close to agreeing on the volumes of tariffs that are proposed to be canceled as part of the first phase of the trade agreement. The deal itself, according to Bloomberg, may be concluded before December 15.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-06 08:46 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after strong growth, which, however, failed to lead to the renewal of previous local highs at 1.1115. The European statistics published on Thursday, which turned out to be not the most successful, remain in the spotlight of investors. The EU GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with the data of the previous period and the forecasts. At the same time, Retail Sales in October fell by 0.6% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in September. Investors expected a reduction of 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, sales slowed down from 2.7% YoY to 1.4% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 2.2% YoY. Employment Change in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, which coincided with the dynamics in the previous quarter.
GBP/USD
GBP is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of May 6. The pound confidently strengthened during the last three trading sessions, which was caused by not the strongest positions of the American currency, and also by the growth of confidence in the Conservative Party's victory in the British parliamentary elections on 12 December. This will allow the Parliament to ratify the deal with the EU and implement Brexit, meeting the new deadlines by the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of the November report on the US labor market, which could trigger the appearance of correctional dynamics in favor of the US currency.
AUD/USD
AUD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.14%. The instrument is recovering after the decline yesterday caused by the publication of contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian Exports fell by 5% in October after rising 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant decline in exports led to a decrease in the trade surplus in October from 6.85B to 4.50B Australian dollars with a forecast of 6.10B. The correctional growth of the instrument during the Asian session is not hindered by the publication of weak AiG Construction Index, which continued to decline in November and fell from 43.9 to 40 points, which turned out to be worse than the average expectations.
USD/JPY
USD is declining against JPY during the Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The yen is again in demand amid growing uncertainty around US-Chinese trade negotiations. Donald Trump’s restrained statements that “the negotiations are proceeding well” weakly support the market, which is waiting for December 15, when the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods, which can offset all the progress achieved by the parties. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Friday does not support the yen. Average Cash Earnings in October increased by 0.5% YoY, coinciding with the data for the previous month. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 1.1% YoY. Household Spending in October fell sharply by 5.1% YoY after growth by 9.5% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 3% YoY.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, trading near 1475.00. Gold quotes have changed little recently since investors expect the situation to develop in a trade conflict between the United States and China. Earlier this week, information appeared that the conclusion of the agreement may have to be postponed to November 2020, when the next presidential election will be held in the United States. Trump later reiterated that “negotiations are going well,” and moderate optimism gradually began to return to the markets. However, there is little time left until December 15, and new import duties, if they are introduced by the USA, will almost certainly put an end to the current progress in the negotiations and everything will have to be started from scratch.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-09 08:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR is stable (–0.03%) against USD on Monday, consolidating after a sharp decline last Friday. EUR showed an active decline on Friday, retreating from its local highs and the level of 1.1115, after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market, which in many respects exceeded expectations. In November, the US economy created 266K new jobs with a forecast of growth of only 180K. Last month, the growth rate was 156K (revised upwards from the previous 128K). Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.1% YoY, which is slightly worse than previous data of 3.2% YoY (revised from +3% YoY). November Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on Imports and Exports from Germany for October.
GBP/USD
GBP is trading with a slight increase (+0.02%) against USD during today's Asian session, located not far from its local highs (1.3165), updated last Thursday. Trading activity in the British currency remains restrained, as traders are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of early parliamentary elections, which will be held at the end of this week. These elections are expected to decide the fate of Brexit, as the market is confident in the victory of the Conservative Party. In addition, investors are waiting for news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Next Sunday, according to Donald Trump, import duties on Chinese goods can be raised again if an agreement between the countries is not signed.
AUD/USD
AUD is trading near the opening level (0.6829) against USD during today's Asian session. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for new drivers to appear at the market. Monday's macroeconomic background is rather scarce, but on Tuesday there will be a lot of interesting statistics from Australia and China. On Wednesday, the United States will be in the spotlight with the publication of November statistics on Consumer Inflation and the Fed meeting. In the meantime, investors are taking a lead from the publication of a strong US labor market report for November last Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls in November increased by 266K after the growth by 156K in the previous month. Analysts had expected an increase of 180K.
USD/JPY
USD is trading flat against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating after falling last week. The optimism from the November report on the labor market, which was released last Friday, today is offset by positive macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Bank Lending in November increased by 2.1% YoY after growth by 2% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a slowdown to +1.9% YoY. Japan's GDP for Q3 2019 grew by 0.4% QoQ after a 0.1% QoQ increase over the previous period. The indicator came out twice as good as its forecasts. On an annual basis, the Japanese economy grew by 1.8% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of 0.7% YoY.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, losing about 0.03% and developing a "bearish" momentum formed at the end of last trading week. Reduction of gold quotes is due to a strong report on the US labor market, published last Friday. The American economy showed a sharp increase in the number of Nonfarm Payrolls at the most significant pace in the last 10 months. This allows investors to expect the Fed to continue taking a wait-and-see attitude and abandon the idea of additional stimulation of the economy.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-10 08:39 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. At the same time, buying activity for the instrument in the market remains reduced, as investors expect the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday. The euro is adding only 0.03%. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from Europe provides the pair with moderate support. German Exports in October grew by 1.2% MoM after rising by 1.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.3% MoM. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 1.2% MoM in September. Due to strong export growth, the Trade Surplus in October rose from 19.2 billion to 20.6 billion euros, which was better than forecasts expecting a correction to 19 billion.
GBP/USD
GBP is relatively stable against USD during the Asian session on Tuesday, consolidating near the record high of April 4 (1.3179), updated the day before. As before, the pound is supported by positive expectations regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections, which can decide the outcome of Brexit. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservative Party has good chances of victory, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and withdraw Great Britain from the European Union by the end of January 2020. During Tuesday, investors expect the publication of interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Among other things, market participants are interested in data on Manufacturing Production dynamics and GDP growth rates (in monthly terms) for October.
NZD/USD
NZD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a decline earlier this week. At the moment, the growth of the instrument is about 0.14%, and NZD itself is again approaching local highs of this August at around 0.6575. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by statistics on Consumer Inflation from China. CPI rose by 4.5% YoY in November after rising by 3.8% YoY in October. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 4.2% YoY. Additional support for the New Zealand dollar is provided by optimistic news regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA).
USD/JPY
USD shows a slight increase against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.03%. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the meetings of the Fed and the ECB in the middle of the week, and the yen, in turn, is stable against the backdrop of market uncertainty. First of all, investors are concerned about the possible introduction of new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15, since the administration of Donald Trump did not report anything new on this subject, and the parties obviously have not time to sign a trade agreement until that moment. In addition, strong macroeconomic statistics on GDP published at the beginning of the week provide additional support for the yen. In Q3 2019, the Japanese economy grew by 0.4% QoQ after growing by 0.1% QoQ a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ.
XAU/USD
Gold prices show a slight increase during today's Asian session, developing a weak "bullish" momentum formed earlier. Gold is supported by continued uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations. Earlier, the Chinese Assistant Minister of Commerce Ren Hongbin said that Beijing was counting on an agreement in the near future, but there were very few specifics, as always. Meanwhile, markets fear that on December 15, Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods, which may erase all progress in negotiations during this time. As for the upcoming meetings of the Fed and the ECB in the middle of the week, investors do not expect any changes in the monetary policy vector from regulators; however, the comments of officials will be very important, especially considering that Christine Lagarde will deliver her first speech as President of the ECB.
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Morning Market Review
2019-12-11 08:42 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD
EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near the level of 1.1096, a local high of December 6, updated the day before. Moderate growth of the instrument on Tuesday was facilitated by rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Europe. ZEW Economic Sentiment index in December showed an increase from –1 to 11.2 points, which turned out to be much better than expectations (–17.7 points). Investors were pleased with the data from ZEW for Germany. German ZEW Current Conditions in December rose from –24.7 to –19.9 points, which turned out to be better than the forecasts at –22.3 points. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for the same period rose from –2.1 to 10.7 points, while the growth forecast was only to zero. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US on consumer inflation. However, the key event on Wednesday will be the Fed meeting on interest rates, followed by a press conference.
GBP/USD
GBP showed a rather active decline against USD during today's Asian session, falling by 0.35%. Later, the pound managed to return most of the lost positions, and the pair is in the red by only 15 points. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK, published the day before. The UK GDP growth rate in October showed zero dynamics after a decline of 0.1% MoM in September. Analysts had expected growth by 0.1% MoM. Industrial Production in October increased by 0.1% MoM, accelerating from the previous decline of 0.3% MoM. At the same time, the indicator was worse than market expectations of 0.2% MoM. On an annualized basis, production is still in the red (–1.3% YoY) and has only slightly improved compared to the data for the previous period (–1.4% YoY).
AUD/USD
AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a moderate decline of the instrument at the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows of December 2. The Australian dollar is adding about 0.19%. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China released on Tuesday provided little support to the instrument. Australia's House Price Index in Q3 2019 increased by 2.4% QoQ after a decline of 0.7% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ only. NAB Business Survey in November remained at the same level of 4 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 2 points. Chinese statistics showed growth in annual dynamics of consumer prices. In November, CPI accelerated from 3.8% YoY to 4.5% YoY, being better than its forecast of 4.2% YoY.
USD/JPY
USD strengthens against JPY during today's Asian session, updating local highs of December 6 (108.84). "Bullish" activity on the instrument slightly decreased, and the dollar showed a correction to the level of 108.73, expecting the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on consumer inflation with the opening of an American session at the market. In particular, it is expected that the Consumer Price Index in November will accelerate from 1.8% YoY to 2.0% YoY. In addition, traders are waiting for the Fed decision on the interest rate. It is unlikely that the US regulator will change monetary policy, but official comments are still important.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. Support for the instrument is provided by corrective sentiment in the American currency ahead of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. In addition, investors fear the approach of December 15, the day when Donald Trump may introduce higher import duties on Chinese goods. There was information in the media that the US plan to postpone the introduction of new duties, but officials have not yet commented on this.
