Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review
2019-10-30 08:45 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed an increase against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of a "bullish" impetus formed the day before. Moderate support for the euro is provided by the newly improved prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Earlier this week, Donald Trump confirmed his intention to discuss all the final details of the agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in November. In addition, it became known that the US is preparing an expanded list of Chinese goods that will be exempted from high import duties. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on the Fed meeting on the interest rate followed by a press conference. The US regulator is expected to reduce rates from 2% to 1.75%.

GBP/USD

GBP showed multi-directional dynamics of trading against USD on Tuesday, ending the session with almost zero result. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the fact that the British parliament expectedly rejected the idea of Boris Johnson to hold early elections in December. However, today the Prime Minister will try to push his initiative again. Another negative factor was uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. BoE Consumer Credit in September fell more than predicted from 0.969B to 0.828B pounds, while analysts expected a decrease to 0.9B. Net Lending to Individuals for the same period fell from 4.8B to 4.6B pounds.

AUD/USD

AUD rose significantly against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of October 22. The "bullish" trend strengthened due to the optimistic comments by officials regarding the process of working out a trade agreement between the United States and China. In addition, USD is under pressure from the upcoming US Fed meeting, at which, as expected, the rate will be reduced by 0.25%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions due to the uncertain statistics from Australia. HIA New Home Sales in Australia in September slowed down from +7.3% MoM to +5.7% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the average forecasts. Australia's Consumer Price Index in Q3 2019 expectedly slowed down its growth from +0.6% QoQ to +0.5% QoQ. Trimmed Mean CPI for the same period remained at the previous level of +0.4% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD showed a slight decline against JPY on Tuesday, after updating local highs of August 1. Investors do not rush to buy USD, waiting for the upcoming Fed meeting, at which, most likely, the key interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%. On the other hand, investor interest in risk is supported by optimistic signals from US and PRC officials regarding a trade deal. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The Japanese currency is supported by good data from Japan on the dynamics of retail sales. In monthly terms, sales in September accelerated from +4.6% MoM to +7.1% MoM. In annual terms, the growth was even more significant: from +1.8% YoY to +9.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, but managed to recover closer to the end of the afternoon session. The quotes were pressured by the comments of officials, which led to an increase in doubts about the continuation of the OPEC+ policy aimed at limiting oil production in 2020. In addition, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of October 25 again reflected growth in stocks by 0.592 million barrels after growth by 4.45 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-31 08:54 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR rose significantly against USD on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The development of the uptrend was due to the weak position of the US currency, which retreated before the Fed meeting, while the macroeconomic background from Europe remained ambiguous. Industrial Sentiment Index in euro area in October fell from –8.9 to –9.5 points with a forecast of –8.9 points. Business and Consumer Survey fell from 101.7 to 100.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations. At the same time, Business Climate indicator increased from –0.23 to –0.19 points for the same period against the forecast of –0.24 points. The data on inflation from Germany were not much better. Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which was better than market expectations of 0.0% MoM and 0.8% YoY, but still worse than target levels of the ECB.

GBP/USD

GBP rose against USD on Wednesday and continues to develop upward momentum during today's Asian session. The pound is supported by the fact that the British Parliament approved early elections in the UK in December. These elections will be the third ones in the last four years, which characterizes the instability of the British political system on the Brexit issue. Also, this opportunity will be the last one for parties that oppose Brexit. The pound grew on Wednesday also due to the results of the Fed meeting. As expected, the US regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25%. The Fed officials noted that this reduction does not mean the beginning of a large-scale period of reduction in rates, although President Trump would like it to happen. The regulator acts "according to the situation", which, however, still shows few signs of improvement.

AUD/USD

AUD showed strong growth against USD on Wednesday, updating local highs of July 30. The main reason for the growth of the instrument was the weakening of the US currency against the backdrop of another decrease in the interest rate by the Fed. In turn, Wednesday's statistics on consumer inflation from Australia were ambiguous. In Q3 2019, Consumer Price Index slowed from +0.6% QoQ to +0.5% QoQ, which coincided with market expectations. In annual terms, inflation remained positive, and the rate rose from +1.6% YoY to +1.7% YoY. Today, the instrument also is trading with a raise. Moderate support for the Australian dollar is provided by Building Approvals indicator. In September, it sharply increased from –1.1% MoM to 7.6% MoM, with a forecast of +0.5% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Wednesday. During the day, the instrument was trading higher, despite the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on retail sales in Japan. Closer to the opening of the American session, the "bullish" activity began to decline significantly, as investors expected the outcome of the Fed meeting. The regulator lowered the key interest rate from 2% to 1.75%, which coincided with market expectations. During the Asian session, the dollar is losing ground again. Support for the yen is provided by the data on industrial production in Japan. In September, Industrial Production showed an increase of 1.4% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the increase of 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator grew by 1.1% YoY, being much better than the forecast of –4.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices fell markedly on Wednesday, reacting to the emergence of negative news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Washington noted that the parties continue to work on a joint agreement, which is expected to be signed at the APEC summit in November. However, there are risks that the parties will not have time to agree on all the necessary details before the start of the summit, and the US will continue to increase pressure on China by raising import duties. Another negative factor for the quotes was the published report from the US Department of Energy, according to which over the week as of October 25, oil reserves unexpectedly rose by 5.702 million barrels, while analysts expected them to increase by only 0.494 million barrels. The previous report reflected the reduction of stocks by 1.699 million barrels.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-01 08:49 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Thursday. At the same time, the instrument managed to update the local highs of October 21, since the position of the American currency remains unstable. Investors were focused on the results of the Fed meeting, where the interest rate was expectedly reduced. Macroeconomic data from Europe also had a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The eurozone Core Consumer Price Index rose slightly from 1% YoY to 1.1% YoY in October, which was better than the neutral forecast. Eurozone GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and by 1.1% YoY, which roughly coincided with market expectations: +0.1% QoQ and +1.1% YoY. The Unemployment Rate in the euro area in September remained unchanged at 7.5%, while analysts had expected it to decline to 7.4%.

GBP/USD

GBP showed uncertain growth against USD on Thursday, updating local highs of October 22. The decline in purchasing activity on GBP was contributed by not the strongest macroeconomic publications from the UK, as well as by a decrease in optimistic sentiments regarding the trade deal between the US and China. Earlier the parties prepared the final version of the preliminary agreement, which was to be signed at the highest level during the APEC summit in Chile. The day before, the Chilean authorities had to cancel the summit due to ongoing civil unrest, so the new date for the possible signing of the agreement is not yet known. Today, the pound is trading with an increase. The US dollar is under pressure in anticipation of the publication of the October labor market report. In addition, investors expect speeches by representatives of the Fed (John Williams, Richard Clarida and others).

AUD/USD

AUD showed a decline against USD on Thursday, retreating from its local highs of July 26. Pressure on the Australian dollar was exerted by deteriorating prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China against the backdrop of the cancellation of the APEC summit in Chile, as well as uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. Non-Manufacturing PMI in China fell from 53.7 to 52.8 points in October, with the forecast of 53.9 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI in October also showed a negative trend from 49.8 to 49.3 points with a neutral forecast. Today, the instrument is growing, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. AiG Manufacturing index went down from 54.7 to 51.6 points in October. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 50 points in October with a neutral forecast.

USD/JPY

USD fell significantly against JPY on Thursday, updating local lows of October 11. The development of correctional dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic indicators from the United States, as well as by deterioration in market sentiment regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Earlier, investors were counting on signing the final document at the APEC summit in Chile, which was canceled the day before due to ongoing protests in the country. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, as well as comments by the Bank of Japan on the interest rate, had a noticeable impact on the instrument on Thursday. As expected, the Japanese regulator left the rate at the same negative level of –0.1%. At the same time, the head of the Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, emphasized that the regulator can continue its further reduction if the impetus to inflation does not recover. Today, the yen is relatively stable. Further growth of the Japanese currency is hindered by weak data from Japan. Unemployment Rate in Japan in September unexpectedly increased from 2.2% to 2.4% with a forecast of 2.3%. Manufacturing PMI from the Jibun Bank in October fell from 48.9 to 48.4 points against the forecast of 48.5 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed negative dynamics on Thursday, responding to the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from China and remained under pressure from data indicating a sharp increase in US crude oil inventories. Chinese Manufacturing PMI showed a decline in October for the sixth time in a row, which casts doubt on the hope of an early recovery in demand for oil. The market also reacted negatively to the cancellation of the APEC summit in Chile, at which it was planned to sign the final agreement between the United States and China. Today, investors will be focused on the October report on the US labor market. In addition, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-05 08:39 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Monday, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Pressure on the euro was exerted by moderate growth in the US currency amid improved prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, support to the dollar is still provided by strong data from the October labor market report published last Friday. Macroeconomic statistics released on Monday provided little support to the euro. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October rose from 45.7 to 45.9 points with a neutral forecast. German Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 41.9 to 42.1 points, which, however, is still far from the 50-point mark. Sentix Investor Confidence indicator rose from –16.8 to –4.5 points in November against a forecast of –13.8 points.

GBP/USD

GBP showed a slight decline against USD on Monday, falling after an increase of last week. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the strengthening of the American currency across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of strong statistics on business conditions from ISM and the growth of investor expectations regarding the successful conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The British currency, in turn, remains under pressure from the development of the political crisis in the country preparing for the early elections on December 12. There is still no unity of opinion among the political forces, and therefore there is no reason to count on a favorable outcome for Boris Johnson. UK macroeconomic statistics released today are worse than market expectations. BRC Retail Sales Monitor in October showed an increase of 0.1% YoY after declining by 1.7% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% MoM.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Monday, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Today, the instrument is growing moderately, responding to improved prospects for a US trade partnership with China and Europe. The focus of investors is also on the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator left it at the level of 0.75%. Australian statistics published today is contradictory. Commonwealth Bank's Composite PMI in October fell from 50.7 to 50 points. Services PMI fell from 50.8 to 50.1 points. AiG Services index went up from 51.5 to 54.2 points in October.

USD/JPY

USD rose against JPY on Monday, continuing to develop a weak "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Japanese markets were closed on Monday to celebrate Culture Day, so investors focused on official statements of last week and the publication of recent macroeconomic statistics. Declining demand for a safe yen was facilitated by statements by US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, who noted that US companies would soon be able to resume cooperation with the Chinese Huawei. In addition, Washington said it was considering freezing the growth of import duties on European and Japanese cars. Today the pair is also growing. Investors expect macroeconomic statistics from the United States on business activity and economic optimism in October-November.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Monday, responding to positive statements about the process of working out a trade agreement between the US and China. It is expected that a preliminary version of the deal will be signed in mid-November. In addition, the market is optimistic about the statements of US officials about the possibility of an early resumption of cooperation between US enterprises and the Chinese Huawei. An additional factor in the growth of oil quotes was Iran’s statements about its intention to support the idea of further reducing oil production at the OPEC+ meeting in December. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of November 1. The previous report reflected an insignificant increase in volumes of 0.592M barrels.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-06 08:56 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Tuesday, updating local lows of October 16. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics, as well as the general growth of the American currency across the entire spectrum of the market. The strongest support for the dollar was provided by data on ISM Services PMI. In October, the indicator rose from 52.6 to 54.7 points, exceeding its forecast of 53.5 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on business activity indices in Europe for October. Separately, traders expect publication of the dynamics of Factory Orders in Germany for September.

GBP/USD

GBP showed flat dynamics on Tuesday, ending the session with almost zero result. Moderate support for the pound was provided by Markit Services PMI in the UK. In October, the indicator rose from 49.5 to 50.0 points, which was slightly better than the forecasts of 49.7 points. In turn, BRC Retail Sales Monitor data came out worse than expected. In October, retail sales rose by 0.1% YoY after a 1.7% YoY decline in September and a forecast of 0.5% YoY growth.

AUD/USD

AUD showed strong growth on Tuesday, updating local highs of October 31. However, the instrument failed to consolidate at new highs, and by the time the US trading session opened, it had lost most of its gains. Australian currency was supported by the results of the RBA meeting and the comments of the head of the regulator. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at 0.75%. At the same time, investors hope that in the near future the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy significantly. RBA head Philip Lowe supported such sentiments, noting that the period of low interest rates will be quite long. Correction of the instrument was facilitated by the publication of ISM Services PMI with the opening of the American trading session. In October, the index showed growth from 52.6 to 54.7 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 53.5 points.

USD/JPY

USD strengthened against JPY on Tuesday, rising to local highs of October 30. The growth of the US currency was due to the publication of a number of positive macroeconomic indicators from the United States, as well as a decrease in market demand for safe-haven currencies, as investors are still optimistic about the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Jibun Bank Services PMI in October showed a decrease from 52.8 to 49.7 points against the forecast of 50.3 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Tuesday, receiving support from increased optimism regarding a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, since China continues to insist on the abolition of the planned increase in import duties on December 15 as well as the tariffs introduced in September, investors expect Washington to make concessions in this issue, which will significantly reduce the degree of trade tension in the market. OPEC's updated forecasts for production volumes over the next few years also provided moderate support for quotes on Tuesday: by 2024, oil production should be reduced to 32.8M barrels per day. In addition, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week ending November 1 reflected sharp growth in stocks by 4.26M barrels after a decline of 0.708M barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-07 08:50 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed an insignificant decline against USD on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The euro returned to decline closer to the opening of the American trading session, while the morning was characterized by growth, which was supported by good macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German Factory Orders rose by 1.3% MoM in September, after falling by 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of 0.1% MoM. Markit Composite PMI in Germany in October rose from 48.6 to 48.9 points, which also exceeded neutral market forecasts. The EU Services PMI in October increased from 51.6 to 52.2 points with the forecast of 51.8 points. Retail sales in September showed an increase of 3.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous +2.7% YoY and with a forecast of +2.5% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP keeps downward direction, updating local lows of October 29. The development of negative trend is facilitated by the newly arisen uncertainty regarding the process of trade negotiations between the USA and China. The parties still have not agreed on the time and place for signing the preliminary agreement, while China continues to insist on the abolition of both previously introduced import duties and the planned tariff increase in December. The US are in no hurry to make concessions to the PRC on this issue, considering the December increase in duties as a guarantee that China will be forced to make a deal. Brexit and the upcoming early parliamentary elections in December remain as negative factors for the pound. Today, investors expect the Bank of England meeting on the interest rate. It is expected that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy in the face of significant uncertainty. Nevertheless, investors will be interested in updated forecasts of the BoE, as well as in a quarterly report on inflation.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD, updating close local lows of October 30. The development of negative trend is facilitated by a moderate growth of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market, while investors expect new drivers to appear. Today, the Australian currency is declining, despite the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. AiG Construction Index went up from 42.6 to 43.9 points in October. Exports from Australia increased by 3% in September after falling by 3% in the previous month. Imports also increased by 3% after zero dynamics in August. Due to strong export growth, Australia's Trade Surplus in September rose significantly from AUD 5.926B to 7.180B. Analysts had expected a decline to AUD 5B.

USD/JPY

USD showed a slight decline against JPY on Wednesday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. Pressure on the yen was exerted by the published minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy, as well as by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. As expected, the protocols reflected the regulator’s commitment to low interest rates, which stimulate weak inflation in the country. It is expected that rates will remain unchanged until Q2 2020 (while the head of regulator Haruhiko Kuroda does not deny the possibility of a new stimulation of inflation in case of urgent need). Wednesday's statistics on Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank reflected a decline in October from 52.8 to 49.7 points against the forecast of 50.3 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed an active decline on Wednesday, retreating from local highs. Pressure on the quotes was exerted by the results of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, according to which, over the week ending November 1, oil reserves increased by 7.929M barrels after an increase of 5.702M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected an increase of only 1.515M barrels. US oil production remained unchanged at 12.600M barrels per day. Additional pressure on the quotes was also exerted by the news that some OPEC+ participants are more interested in following all the regulations of the current agreement to limit production, rather than expanding the volume of restrictions in the future.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-08 08:45 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a decline against USD on Thursday, updating local lows of October 16. Pressure on the euro was exerted by moderate growth in the US currency amid improved prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. There was information in the media that the parties are ready to mutually cancel part of the previously imposed higher import duties, which indicates some progress in the negotiations. However, the timing and venue of signing the agreement are still unknown. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from Germany had an additional negative impact on the euro. Industrial Production in September decreased by 0.6% MoM after an increase of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the decline has accelerated from –3.9% YoY to –4.3% YoY, with the forecast of –2.9% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP fell against USD on Thursday, noting a new local low since October 24. The results of the Bank of England meeting, as well as the continued moderate growth of the dollar against the backdrop of improving prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China, contributed to the decrease in the instrument. As expected, the British regulator kept the key interest rate at 0.75%, and the volume of the quantitative easing program remained at 435B pounds. At the same time, the vote to maintain the rate was not unanimous. Two representatives of the regulator spoke out for its decline due to the high level of uncertainty in the global economy and the risks that Brexit brings.

AUD/USD

AUD rose slightly against USD on Thursday, but again returned to decline during today's Asian session. The Australian currency was boosted yesterday by positive data from Australia on September export dynamics, which allowed for a stronger trade surplus. Additional support for the instrument was provided by positive news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the USA and China. Today, the instrument is again declining, despite the publication of moderately optimistic statistics on exports from China. In October, exports fell by 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected further deterioration in the dynamics of the indicator to –3.9% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 6.4% YoY after a decrease of 8.5% YoY in September. The trade surplus in October increased from 39.65B to 42.81B dollars, which exceeded market forecasts of 40.83B dollars.

USD/JPY

USD rose against JPY on Thursday, updating local highs of May 31. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by the depreciation of the Japanese currency against the background of an upbeat sentiment regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Despite the fact that currently the new terms for signing the preliminary trade agreement have not been agreed upon, the comments of the officials allow one to believe in real progress in the ongoing negotiations. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The yen is moderately supported by the Japanese macroeconomic data. Household Spending in September grew by 9.5% YoY after growth by 1.0% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 7.8% YoY. Overall wage income of employees in September rose by 0.8% YoY after a decrease of 0.1% YoY in the previous month, with a forecast of +0.4% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Thursday, responding to news that China and the US agreed on a plan to mutually reduce existing high import duties after a preliminary trade deal was concluded. However, the timing of the signing of this agreement is not yet known, although earlier information appeared in the media that the date could be postponed to early December. Today, oil quotes are relatively stable and expect new drivers to appear at the market. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report in the United States.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-11 08:52 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a confident decline against USD last Friday, updating local lows of October 15. The development of the "bearish" trend was promoted by optimistic news around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. PRC representatives said that the parties are ready to mutually cancel a number of increased import duties as part of the conclusion of a preliminary trade agreement. However, later this information was not confirmed by the American side, and Donald Trump, commenting on the spreading rumors, said that the issue remains unresolved. In addition, Trump noted that in order to conclude the first phase of a trade agreement, the PRC president will have to come to the United States. The timing of a possible signing of the document is still unknown.

GBP/USD

GBP fell against USD on Friday, continuing to develop a downtrend and updating local lows of October 16. Positions of the pound at the end of last trading week were under pressure amid the publication of optimistic news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Later, however, optimism about the imminent signing of the preliminary agreement somewhat diminished, and investors turned their attention to the upcoming early parliamentary elections in Great Britain in December. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. The focus of investors is on macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Among other things, investors are interested in the UK GDP data for Q3 2019. Also, markets will be interested in statistics on Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production for September.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Friday, updating local lows of October 30. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by technical factors that intensified by the end of the trading week, as well as the moderate growth of the American currency against the background of increased investor optimism regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. Friday's macroeconomic statistics was contradictory. Australian Home Loans in September grew by 1.4% MoM after growth of 2.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the increase to 1.3% MoM. Chinese statistics reflected improvement in the dynamics of foreign trade. In October, Exports fell by 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. Imports for the same period decreased by 6.4% YoY after a decrease of 8.5% YoY in September. The trade surplus in October amounted to 42.81B dollars against the previous value of 39.65B dollars. Analysts had expected surplus growth to only 40.83B dollars.

USD/JPY

USD ended last week with ambiguous dynamics against JPY. Despite the publication of quite positive Japanese data, the instrument received support from optimistic market sentiment regarding the conclusion of a preliminary agreement between the United States and China. Coincident Indicators Index in October rose from 99 to 101 points with a forecast of growth of only 99.5 points. The Leading Indicators Index for the same period fell from 91.9 to 92.2 points with a forecast of 91.7 points. Today, the instrument shows a moderate decline, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, reacting to the publication of conflicting information on the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. The quotes were pressured by the comments of Donald Trump, who stated that he had not agreed to abolish previously imposed import duties on Chinese goods just yet. Last week the media reported that the US and China are preparing for the mutual abolition of import duties as part of the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement. Moderate support for the instrument on Friday was provided by Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report. For the reporting week, the number of oil rigs decreased from 691 to 684 units.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-12 08:46 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed correctional growth on Monday, recovering slightly after a steady decline of last week. The uptrend appeared due to technical factors, since no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US or Europe were released yesterday. American markets were also closed due to Veterans Day. One way or another, investors are still focusing on trade negotiations between the United States and China. Optimism regarding the early conclusion of a preliminary agreement gave way to doubts after Donald Trump announced that he was not going to revise the current policy on increased import duties. Today, the instrument is relatively stable, expecting new drivers to appear on the market. Investors expect the publication of November statistics on ZEW Economic Sentiment, as well as statements by ECB representatives, Coeure and Mersch.

GBP/USD

GBP rose significantly against USD yesterday, rising to the local highs of November 5. The pound managed to show growth on Monday, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial Production in September fell by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production decreased by 1.4% YoY, slightly improving dynamics from the previous month at –1.8% YoY. UK GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 0.3% QoQ after a decrease of 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2019. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, the British economy slowed down from +1.3% YoY to +1% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts of +1.1% YoY. Today, the pound remains prone to further growth. Traders are awaiting the publication of UK labor market data for September/October.

AUD/USD

AUD fell against USD on Monday, continuing to develop a "bearish" momentum, which has been preserved since the end of last week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by noticeably worsened prospects for concluding a trade deal between the USA and China. At the end of last week, Donald Trump said that he was not currently considering the possibility of canceling part of the previously imposed import duties, which Beijing insists on. In addition, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of the possible signing of the agreement, which reduces the likelihood that the deal may be concluded in November. Today, the Australian dollar, which opened with the usual decline, is recovering some of the lost ground. The instrument is supported by fairly positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. NAB Business Confidence rose from 0 to 2 points in October with the neutral forecast. NAB Business Survey rose from 2 to 3 points in October, which exceeded the expectations as well.

USD/JPY

USD fell against JPY on Monday, as the negative sentiment regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China outweighed the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator increased by 5.1% YoY after the decrease by 14.5% YoY in the previous month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 7.9% YoY. Economy Watchers Current Index in October fell sharply from 46.7 to 36.7 points, while analysts had expected growth to 47.1 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, interrupting the development of weak correctional dynamics. Pressure on quotes is still provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Saturday, Donald Trump once again emphasized that the deal would be concluded only if it is "useful" for the United States. As for the possible cancellation of some of the introduced import duties, Trump has not yet considered this possibility, which may become another stumbling block for the current negotiations.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-13 08:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a moderate decline against USD on Tuesday, updating local lows of October 15. The euro got some support from macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German ZEW Economic Sentiment in November showed a sharp increase from –22.8 to –2.1 points with a forecast of –13 points. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period rose from –25.3 to –24.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –22 points. The EU ZEW Economic Sentiment in November showed strong positive dynamics, increasing from –23.5 to –1 point with a forecast of –32.5 points. The pressure on the instrument, in turn, was exerted by the results of Donald Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club. Trump remained true to his previous statements and touched very little on the topic of US-European trade relations, noting that the EU is increasingly setting up "terrible" trade barriers.

GBP/USD

GBP showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, interrupting the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The instrument was under pressure from contradictory macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Claimant Count Change in October rose sharply from 13.5K to 33K, while analysts had expected an increase of only 21.3K. Average Earnings ex Bonus in September slowed down from +3.8% 3MoY to +3.6% 3MoY with a neutral forecast. In turn, the Unemployment Rate in September fell from 3.9% to 3.8% (3M/3M). Today, the pound is also showing ambiguous dynamics, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. Investors expect the publication of statistics on consumer and industrial inflation for October.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, having updated local lows of October 28. The further development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by Donald Trump, who spoke on Tuesday at the New York Economic Club. Investors were waiting for statements on the development of trade relations between the United States and China, which hovered before the signing of the preliminary agreement, but the US president did not say anything new about this. Trump noted that China is still striving to conclude a trade agreement, but the deal will only be signed on terms profitable to the US economy. If the agreement is not concluded, then the United States is ready to introduce new import duties.

USD/JPY

USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Tuesday, closing with a slight "bearish" margin. Moderate support for the Japanese currency is still provided by the uncertain situation surrounding the conclusion of a preliminary trade deal between the United States and China. Donald Trump’s speech on Tuesday again did not clarify this issue; therefore, one should not exclude further moderate growth in demand for Japanese currency. In turn, weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan does not allow the instrument to develop a more confident decline. Machine Tool Orders data published on Tuesday showed a decrease of 37.4% YoY in October after a decrease of 35.5% YoY in September.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Tuesday, reacting to the neutral results of Donald Trump's speech. The US President did not say anything new about the prospects for concluding a trade deal, so the uncertainty surrounding this issue only intensifies, since the threat of introducing new import duties remains. Today, oil quotes show a slight decrease. Investors expect the publication of statistics on consumer inflation from the United States, as well as the release of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for the week ending November 8.