Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair GBP/USD continues to show instability in view of political events in the UK. Yesterday the pair dropped during early trading having tested the support level 1.2600. But after the promises of Prime Minister Theresa May to organize the Brexit procedure as mildly as possible, the price moved to 1.2700. Due to high volatility it is impossible to forecee futher movements of the price, and current marker instability may remain until the beginning of Brexit negotiations.
Today in the absence of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and the USA attention should be paid to technical indicators.

Support and resistance
On the H4 chart the pair is trading between the middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands and is showing side movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with the sale signal weakening. Stochastic is in the neutral area showing side movement and does not give a clear signal for entering the market.
Support levels: 1.2635, 1.2600.
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2780, 1.2800.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2700.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2720 with targets at 1.2780 and stop-loss at 1.2690.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.


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WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil, D1
On D1 chart the instrument is decreasing along the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widened, and the next target is the support level of 42.00. In case this level is broken through, the price will continue to move to 41.50, 41.00. MACD histogram is in the negative area and gradually increases its volumes. The signal line is crossing to body of the histogram *Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is about to cross the border wth the neutral area.

WTI Crude Oil, H4
On the H4 chart the price corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The price is moving within the 42.00 - 43.00 range formed by the middle and lower borders of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for the opening of short positions. Stochatic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

Key levels
Support levels: 42.00, 41.50, 41.00.
Resistance levels: 44.00, 45.80, 46.50, 47.15, 48.00, 49.30, 50.00, 50.50, 51.70, 52.50, 53.00.

Trading tips
According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with targets at 42.00 and stop-loss at 43.20. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from 44.30 with targets at 45.80 and stop-loss at 43.80. The implementation period is 3-5 days.



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EUR/USD: summer drop and volatility

Current trend
The rate of EUR/USD is in the side tendency and has been consolidating in the narrow channel for a month. The summer season is at its peak, and the leaders of Eurozone and the USA have postoponed their key decisions for autumn. The only movement catalyst was the decision of FOMC to increase the rates that has been in the making for a long time.
Despite this, the rate of USD against EUR underwent almost no significant changes. The pair has been trading within the limit of 120 points since the middle of May. Last week it dropped due to the growth of demand for USD in view of FOMC decisions but by Friday the pair returned to starting points. Today the economic calendar containst no macroeconomic releases from Europe and the USA.

Support and resistance
No major fluctuations of the pair are expected in the medium term. Lateral channel is likely to narrow down. Even tomorrow's statements by ECB President Mario Draghi and FOMC chair Janet Yelln are not likely to provoke volatility.
Despite this, the upward trend has been broken, and there is high possibility that the pair will drop in the long term. The downward tendency may continue to the lower border of the long-term upward range at 1.0820. The main supporting factors are weak demand for EUR in view of Brexit and growing investors' interest in weakened USD supported by the increase of the key interest rate. Technical indicators confirm the downward tendency. The volumes of long positions in MACD indicator dropped rapidly, and Bollinger Bands are rearranging horizontally.
Support levels: 1.1155, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1020, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0820, 1.0710, 1.0570.
Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1350, 1.1370, 1.1470.

Trading tips
Positions may be opened from the borders of the channel. Short positions may be opened after a sell signal following the breakout of the key support levels 1.1125, 1.1100 with targets at 1.0950, 1.0820.


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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Oil quotes attempted to grow once again. Moving away from the support level of 45.17, they are trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 46.31. Technical indicators show the increasing influence of the buyers. Bollinger Bands are pointing upwards. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively reducing in the negative zone and have moved to the positive one. Breaking through the level of 46.31 will be a signal of growth continuation. In this case the nearest targets of the buyers will be 47.00, 48.00. If the level of 46.31 is not bronek through, and the sellers manage to take the initiative, the fall will continue to 45.58, 44.48.
Today market players will pay attention to initial data from API on weekly changes of oil reserves in the USA (22:30, GMT+2). If the report points at considerable reduction of reserve, Brent will gain strong support in the short term. Otherwise the fall will continue. Generally the news in the oil market remain negative. The market still has not seen any effect from OPEC+ agreement extension. Due to the remaining oversupply of oil it is difficult for the prices to move to stable growth.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 45.58, 44.48, 43.52.
Resistance levels: 46.31, 47.00, 48.01.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 46.31 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 46.20.
Sell positions may be opened below 45.58 with targets at 44.48 and stop-loss at 48.88.


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NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
As a result of yesterday's trading the rate of the pair NZD/USD demonstrated mixed dynamics and closed at 0.7269. USD consolidated in view of comments by the member of FOMC Open Markets Committee Patrick Harker supporting the increase of the rates this year. The pair was also influenced by the "hawkish" tone of comments made by the ECB head Mario Draghi who stated that the increase of interest rates in the near future. Fiscal policies of ECB and FOMC differ from that of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While FOMC and ECB speak about the increase of the rates, RBN remains neutral.
Today the rate of the pair may be influenced by the data on the on-going housing sales transactions from the USA. The indicator is expected to grow by 0.8% and a result above expected may give additional support to USD.

Support and resistance
On the H4 chart the instrument is moving in the narrow range formed by middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive area with it volumes decreasing. Stochastic is crossing the borders of the neutral zone and the oversold zone from below, forming a signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7050.
Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7320, 0.7350.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 0.7250 with targets at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
Long positions may be opened from 0.7290 with targets at 0.7340 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.


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USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend
The US dollar has been weakening against the Swiss franc for the third day. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 0.9577. The nearest key support level is 0.9521. The fall of the USD is caused mainly by the IMF commentary upon the decreasing of the expecting growth rate of the US economy. Analysts expect that the forecast is connected with the disagreement of the Republicans and Democrats in the White House, which can prevent all the President’s attempts to imply the tax reformation. Originally the plan was to decrease the federal budget income tax rate for corporations to 15%. According to Congressmen, the step can lead to 2 trillion USD shortage in the budget. On the other hand, this can lead to the increase of the economy growth rate and compensate the lowering of the tax base. In addition, the IMF experts noted that the USD is overpriced by 10-15% against main world currencies at the moment, which undermines the competitiveness of the US goods and negatively affects the economy growth.
The Initial Jobless Claims data will we published today in the USA: the index is expected to stay at the same level of 240K. The Q1 Gross Domestic Product Annualized publication is also expected today.

Support and resistance
Support level: 0.9521.
Resistance level: 0.9643.

Trading scenario
Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.9643 with the target at 0.9700 and stop loss around 0.9521.



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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The AUD/USD pair is strongly growing during the last week, and the main driver of the increase is the uncertainty in the further USA monetary policy.
Yesterday the key issue was the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard’s speech, after which the pair managed to break the resistance level of 0.7780 and reached March maximum. According to Bullard, the main FRS problem is the inflation level in the country, which doesn’t meet the US regulator’s plans to increase the interest rate this year. The FRS official added that it’s difficult to reach the target of 2%, and the fall of the treasury bonds yields is connected with the inflation risks. However, Bullard highlighted the good employment YoY data and accented, that he expected the more positive statistics in the future.
Today the traders should pay attention to the Personal Spending data publication in the USA. The index is the key inflation indicator, and the weak data can support the pair greatly.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair consolidated above the level of 0.7680. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, as the price range stays the same, which reflects the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic entered the oversold area.
Support levels: 0.7675, 0.7637, 0.7610, 0.7575.
Resistance levels: 0.7712, 0.7740, 0.7765.

Trading scenario
Long positions can be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7715, 0.7755 and stop loss at 0.7655. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7655 with the target at 0.7580 and stop loss 0.7685. Implementation period: 1-3 days.


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XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Silver has been weakening during the last months, and last week has almost reached the 2-month minima at the area of 16.20-16.50. Other precious metals, gold and platinum, are trading with the same dynamics. This decrease is characterized by the simultaneous fall of the US dollar. Why the traders aren’t using the precious metals as a safe haven? Take a look at the main currency pairs’ dynamics, especially commodity ones. During the last 4-6 weeks all the commodity currencies have been growing. Canadian, European and the UK currency grew due to the tightening of its regulators’ rhetoric. The AUD was supported by the growth of the copper and iron ore prices. In the most of these countries the growth of the governments bonds’ yields can be seen, and it attracts the additional investors’ recourses and decreases the investors’ interest of the precious metals.
Last week as a result silver fell to the strong support level, which consist of two daily channels borders: the lower border of the blue 18-month channel and the upper border of the 1-year black channel.
Today the key data, which will be published, are: US Markit Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to be slightly positive, the Unemployment Rate at 11:00 (GMT+2) in the EU (slight decrease by 0.1% is expected).
The growth of silver within the correction from the strong support level is expected in the next two days.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 16.45, 16.00, 15.60, 15.00.
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.10, 17.35.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 16.80, 17.10 and stop loss at 16.25.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 16.45 with the targets at 16.00, 15.60, stop loss is at 16.90.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.


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EUR/USD: the Independence Day calmed the market

Current trend
On Monday the pair was corrected due to the strong USA Markit Manufacturing PMI publication, which exceeded the expectation in June and reached the level of 57.8 points (the most significant growth from 2014).
At the moment the pair is trading within the range of 1.3700–1.1345, as the market is calm due to the Independence Day celebrating in the USA. The market will activate on Wednesday, after the EU Retail Sales and USA FOMC Minutes publication. The Minutes can clear the further intentions of the regulator. The investors are sure that the monetary policy will be tightened in the future, as it was confirmed by the FRS officials, including the head of the FRS Janet Yellen, but the specific time of the interest rate increase is unknown.

Support and resistance
From the technical point of view, the pair can be corrected too, as the price is around the upper border of a strong sideways channel. In such conditions the decrease can develop to the area of the middle line of Bollinger Bands 1.1250 and further, to 1.1190 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and to 1.1100 (area of crossing with the Fibonacci fan line 38.2%). The possibility of the downward correction is confirmed by the technical indicators. The MACD histogram consolidated in the positive zone. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area and forms a sell signal. The growth can restore if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1440 with the targets at 1.1530 and 1.1610.
Support levels: 1.2500, 1.1190, 1.1100, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1610.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 1.1250, 1.1190 and stop loss at 1.1390.
If the price is set above the level of 1.1440, the long positions can become relevant with the targets at 1.1530, 1.1610 and stop loss at 1.1400.


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WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Yesterday WTI quotes dropped by over 3% to the level of 45.00 after it was announced that OPEC states had increased the volume of exported oil by 450K barrels to 25.92 mln barrels a day. The data from API released by the end of the trading session showed the decrease of US commercial reserves by 5.76 mln barrels a week. Investors reacted to it with active purchases of oil futures which helped WTI rate return to the level of 46.00.
Today market players are waiting for the official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes of oil reserves (17:00 GMT+2). They are expected to reduce by 2.283 mln barrels per week against growth by 0.118 mln barrels in the previous week. The confirmation of the forecast or bigger decrease than expected m support oil prices in the short term. If the data shows smaller reduction of reserves, oil quotes may resume falling.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators show that the fall tendency remains: Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the volumes of MACD histogram are reducing in the positive zone. Downward movement may continue after the price consolidates below 45.51. In this case the sellers will try to drop the rate to 44.53-43.60. If the buyers manage to increase the rate above 46.11, growth may continue to 46.85.
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.60.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53, 43.60 at stop-loss at 46.00.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 46.11 with targets at 46.85, 47.80 and stop-loss at 45.70.