Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

After the fall yesterday the oil tried to grow today. The price has reached the level of 52.00, but then has rapidly lowered to the area of the level of 50.20 due to the commentaries of one of the OPEC representatives, who said that there is no necessity in greater oil production limitation. At the moment the OPEC meeting is held in Vienna, and the results of it will be published today. It is expected, that the parties will come to the agreement, which prolong the world oil production limitation for some more time. The basic variant of the prolongation period is 9 months, but the prolongation by 1 year is not excluded. There is no clear information yet, and the market can react impulsively on the OPEC representatives’ commentaries.
If all the parties come to the agreement of the prolongation by 9 month or more, WTI price will be supported and continue to grow. If not all the parties enter the Agreement or aren’t ready to fulfill the current conditions of the oil production limitation, the lowering of the price is expected.

It’s inappropriate to rely on the technical indicators’ readings at the moment, as the price dynamics depends on the OPEC decision in the nearest future.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 50.53, 49.46, 48.30.
Resistance levels: 52.12, 53.20, 54.00

Trading scenario

Open short positions below the level of 50.53 with the target at around 49.46 and stop loss at 50.70.
Open long positions above the level of 52.12 with the target at around 53.20 and stop loss at 51.80.

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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

This week the pair USD/CHF was trading in the side corridor between the strong support level of 0.9700 and resistance level of 0.9780. Yesterday US dollar grew in view of positive data on the number of initial jobless claims (the indicator was lower than expected and made up 234K). Negative weekly data for CHF include April trading balance (that fell to 1.968 mln) and the volume of industrial output for Q1 2017 (that reduced to 4.6%). Nevertheless, CHF was stable against te growing USD. Having tested the level of 0.9700 once again, the pair failed to break through it.

Today additional volatility to the pair may be given by the US GDP data for Q1 2017 (that is to increase by 0.9%) and statistics on the volume of demand for durable goods (in April the indicator may fall by 1.2%). Generally the data is not overally positive for USD, but the pair is unlikely to enter serious correction. It may remain within the horizontal range.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9640, 0.9550.
Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930, 1.0000.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.9780 and stop-loss at 0.9640.
Alternatively, one may open sell positions at the level of 0.9780 with target at 0.9700 and stop-loss at 0.9860.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The rate of the pound rapidly fell against USD in the end of the previous week dropping by 230 points. The pair closed trading at the level of 1.2808 which is the lowest closing price in the previous four weeks. The fall of GBP was caused by the polls taken in view of the upcoming UK election. The positions of the conservative wavered after Manchester events.

Last week the price failed to overcome an important level of 1.3030 which would have given the "bulls" an additional impulse. Today is a holiday in the UK and USA, therefore no activity in the market should be expected due to low liquidity. This should keep the pair GBP/USD within the narrow range and in the consolidation regime.

In the USA FOMC statement on the interest rate was more cautios than expected. The regulator pointed out that the increase of interest rates will depend on the information received by it. Therefore the release of the data on the nonfarm payrolls schedulled in the end of the week shall determine yet another direction for USD. The pound, in turn, may be under pressure in view of the news about another referendum in Scotland on its exit from the UK in case of the victory of the dominant party at the election on June 8.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2830, 1.2800.
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2975, 1.3015, 1.3045.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2790 with target at 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2820.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2850 with targets at 1.2900 and stop-loss at1.2820.
The period of implementation is 2-5 days.

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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The growth of Canadian dollar strengthened after the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interet rate made last week. As a result the pair reached its six-weeks minimum from which upward correction (purple trend line) started. Right now the movement of the pair is hindered by a stronger trend line — the blue one. The price is likely to meet it between the levels of 1.3535 and 1.3600.
Today the dynamics of the pair may be influenced by the important data from Canada and the USA. The data on the Canadian trading balance and raw materials prices index are due at 14:30 (GMT+2). The information on personal income and expenditure will be published in the USA at the same time.
The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3535, 1.3600 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3426 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3456.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the dynamics of the pair USD/CHF was determined by negative values of oth currencies. After Swiss index of leading economic indicators for May appeared to be wore than expected, the pair moved up from the narrow two-weeks flat. But weak data on the consumer confidence index from the USA returned the price of the pair back to the range indicating that it was falsely broken through.
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is due today in Switzerland at 10:00 (GMT+2).

PMI Chicago will be published at 15:45 (GMT+2). The data on incompleted sales transactions in the US real estate market is due at 16:00 (GMT+2). FOMC Beige Book Economic Review is due at 20:00 (GMT+2). *
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Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9640, 0.9550.
Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930, 1.0000.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.9700, 0.9640 and stop-loss at 0.9780.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.9780 with targets at 0.9850, 0.9930 and stop-loss at 0.9740.

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NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The New Zealand dollar is lowering during the trading session today.
The NZD is weakening due to the poor PRC data publications. According to Caixin, the China Manufacturing PMI lowered below the level of 50 for the first time from June, 2016. In May the index lowered by 0.7 to 49.6 points. The index evaluates the state of the manufacturing industry.

A reading above 50 is perceived as positive for the Chinese economy. A reading below 50 is perceived as negative. The New Zealand economy is responsive to the PRC economical news, as China is its major trading partner.
Today the list of US economical news will be published. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is worth traders’ attention, as it will give an insight of the economy growth rate, and the ISM Prices Paid.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is moving within the upward channel. It is expected to trade near its lower border. MACD is above the zero line, but its volumes are decreasing, Stochastic is pointed downwards. The indicators give a sell signal.

Support levels: 0.7060, 0.7020, 0.6970.
Resistance levels: 0.7090, 0.7130, 0.7185.

Trading scenario

Buy the pair after the price is set above the level of 0.7090 with the target at 0.7130 and 0.7185, stop loss is at 0.7070.
Short positions seem more relevant, open ones below the level of 0.7060 with the target at 0.7020 and 0.6970 and stop loss at 0.7080.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Thursday was volatile for the pair EUR/USD which was caused by yesterday’s releases and the news due today, in particular changes in nonfarm payrolls.
Yesterday after slight growth during the morning trading the pair got cheaper in view of release on an ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector. The indicator that precedes the NFP report showed growth and exceeded expectations strengthening USD and giving sufficient proof that the report on nonfarm payrolls will be positive. Strong NP data in turn will indirectly support the increase of FOMC rates in June.

The growth of initial jobless claims had a negative impact on the US currency and slowed down the fall of the pair. It dropped to1.1200 but failed to break through a strong support level.
Today the market is expected to be highly volatile.

Support and resistance

On the H1 chart the pair is demonstrating lateral movement within a narrow price range formed by the borders of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is around the zero mark, and its volumes are minimal.

Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1120.
Resistance levels: 1.1240, 1.1265.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.1190 with targets at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1220.
Long positions may be opened from 1.1240 with targets at 1.1290 and top-loss at 1.1210.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The Canadian dollar fell last week against the US dollar, despite the fact that the data on Canadian GDP came out much better than expected. Nevertheless, the significant fall in oil prices, which reached a three-week low last week, and the strengthening of the US dollar up until Friday weakened the Canadian currency; and the pair USD/CAD was growing.

However, the trend line zone (blue) close to the resistance area of 1.3550 once again showed its strength, and the pair was corrected downwards. The correction of the pair also had a fundamental reason – the Friday data of the US labor market, which turned out to be worse than the forecast.

At the beginning of this week important indicators are going to be released: productivity level in the non-agricultural sector of the USA (14:30 GMT+2), it is expected to grow by 0.4%; the index of business activity and the index of activity in the US services sector (15:45 GMT+2); the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) of the US at 16:00 (GMT+2) (the forecast promises a decrease in the index by 0.5 points). Tomorrow, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in Canada will be published.

We can hardly expect a rapid return of investor confidence after their disappointment with the US dollar on Friday, therefore, for the next two days we expect the consolidation of the pair.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading scenario
Short positions should be opened at the market price with the targets of 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3540.
An alternative scenario would be to buy at 1.3535 with targets of 1.3600, 1.3700 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

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NZD/USD: weak US stats push the pair up

Current trend
The pair is growing for the fourth week and by now has reached a maximum value in the region of 0.7170. The US currency was seriously weakened by recent negative statistics: the number of new jobs fell to 138 thousand. On Monday, unconvincing data showed the US business activity index in the non-industrial sector, which in March was worse than forecasted and amounted to 56.9 points. The deterioration of US statistics may slow the rate hike. On the other hand, the general support for New Zealand currency is provided by the milk prices: according to the Global Dairy Trade auction, a stable growth of over 3% has been observed for 6 weeks. In addition, the corporate news strengthen “kiwi”: one of the largest dairy producers in Australia Murray Goulburn was forced to close part of the production and cut 360 jobs, which plays into the hands of the New Zealand company Fonterra, which holds about 30% of world exports of dairy products and providing significant income to the budget of New Zealand.

Support and resistance
In technical terms, the price is testing the 0.7170 level (Fibonacci correction of 23.6%) and, in case of break through it can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375 (annual highs). On the other hand, Stochastic's entry into the overbought zone indicates a possible downward correction to the mid-range of the Bollinger bands and Fibo’s 38.2% – to the 0.7000 level.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6875, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7170, 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7170 with targets of 0.7250 and 0.7320 and stop-loss order at 0.7140. With the rebound of the price from the level of 0.7170, short positions with the target of 0.7000 and stop-loss order 0.7170 will become relevant.

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Due to the empty macroecnomic calendar market participants continued to act based on the negative labor market statistics and to sell the US currency. As a result the pair EUR/USD rose to the resistance level of 1.1284. After multiple tests of this level trading moved to the side channel. The traders are waiting for the ECB fiscal policy meeting and the results of parliamentary election in the UK and do not open major positions. If ECB increases its economic forecatrs, the rate of EUR/USD will continue to increase. If the rhetorics of the European regulator appears to be mild, one may expect the rate of EUR/USD to decrease.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators confirm the lateral tendency: Bollinger Bands are directed sidewards; MACD histogram is in the positive zone and moving alon the zero line.
Support levels: 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1135.
Resistance levels: 1.1284, 1.1324, 1.1381.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.1232 with targets at 1.1180, 1.1135 at stop-loss at 1.1265.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.1284 with targets at 1.1324, 1.1381 and stop-loss at 1.1254.

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