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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review 2019-10-01 08:45 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday, updating record lows of May ...

      
   
  1. #871
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-01 08:45 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday, updating record lows of May 2017. Pressure on the euro was provided by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Retail Sales in August showed a slowdown from +5.2% YoY to 3.2% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market forecasts of +3.3% YoY. On a monthly basis, the indicator grew by 0.5% MoM after a decline of 0.8% MoM in July but the volumes did not reach the expected level of +0.6% MoM. The most disappointing was the data on inflation. According to preliminary estimates, the German Consumer Price Index in September showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and grew by 1.2% YoY, slowing down from the previous +1.4% YoY. Harmonized Consumer Price Index in September slowed down from +1.0% YoY to +0.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the euro continues to trade lower. Investors expect publication of September statistics on inflation in the euro area, but market sentiment remains negative.

    GBP/USD

    GBP showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Monday, having managed to update local lows of September 9. However, during the day the pound traded mainly with an increase, supported by revised UK GDP indicators for Q2 2019. According to updated data, the British economy grew in Q2 2019 by 1.3% YoY against the previous estimate of +1.2% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the indicator remained unchanged at –0.2% QoQ. The development of flat dynamics of the instrument is also facilitated by the uncertain situation around the political crisis in the UK. The opposition parties of the British parliament are seriously discussing the idea of a vote of no confidence in the current government, which could subsequently lead to a new postponement of Brexit and even to a second referendum.

    AUD/USD

    AUD showed a decline against USD on Monday and maintains its previous "bearish" sentiment during today's Asian session. The instrument was under pressure from ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Inflation data from TD Securities in September showed a slowdown in annual terms from +1.7% YoY to +1.5% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator slightly increased by 0.1% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Today, pressure on the Australian dollar is exerted by the RBA's expected decision to lower the interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%.

    USD/JPY

    USD continues to trade against JPY with an increase, updating local highs of September 19. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument on Monday was facilitated by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial production in August decreased by 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY after the increase by 1.3% MoM and 0.7% YoY. Analysts expected the appearance of negative dynamics, but they counted only at –0.5% MoM and –1.8% YoY. In turn, retail sales for August came out significantly better than their forecasts. In monthly terms, the growth rate was +4.8% MoM after a decrease of 2.3% MoM last month and a zero forecast. In annual terms, sales rose 2.0% YoY after a decrease of 2.0% YoY in July. Analysts had expected growth by 0.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the pair is under pressure from weak data on Manufacturing PMI in Japan. The Jibun Bank PMI in September remained at the previous level of 48.9 points, indicating stagnation of production activity.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a steady decline on Monday, responding to the weak prospects for China's economic growth. In addition, investors are waiting for the resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Despite the optimistic start of the ongoing negotiations, which will enter the final stage on October 10, the market is not inclined to be overly optimistic about Donald Trump's statements. Another negative factor for oil was the rapid restoration of previous production volumes by Saudi Arabia. However, in order to achieve this, the kingdom had to turn to its oil reserves, so it is not clear whether Saudi Aramco really managed to return to its previous levels. Today, oil prices show a slight increase. Investors are focused on the publication Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI in September. In addition, traders expect an API Weekly Crude Oil Stock as of September 27.

  2. #872
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-02 08:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, departing from the updated local lows of May 12 2017. The growth of the euro was largely technical in nature, since the macroeconomic background from Europe remained ambiguous. Preliminary data on the Consumer Price Index in September indicated a slowdown in inflation from +1.0% YoY to +0.9% YoY with a forecast of +1.0% YoY. Core CPI, on the contrary, rose from +0.9% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which was in line with forecasts. Manufacturing PMI in the euro area in September fell from 47.0 to 45.7 points, which is the lowest since 2012. Germany was hit harder than others, with its Manufacturing PMI falling from 43.5 to 41.7 points. At the same time, it is worth noting that indexes have long been in the stagnation zone. With the opening of the US session, the euro was boosted by weak data on US business activity in the manufacturing sector. According to data from ISM, in September the indicator crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Tuesday, having managed to update local lows of September 4. The pound was supported by weak data on business activity in the USA, while the British statistics remained contradictory. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK in September showed an increase from 47.4 to 48.3 points against the forecast of 47.0 points. Nationwide House Price Index in September decreased by 0.2% MoM after zero dynamics in August. Analysts expected +0.1% MoM. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a decrease. The pound was under pressure from the data on BRC Shop Price Index. In August, prices fell by 0.6% YoY, continuing the previous negative trend of –0.4% YoY.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed an active decline against the US currency on Tuesday, updating record lows of March 2009. The weakening of the instrument was caused by the quite expected RBA move to further mitigate monetary policy: the bank lowered its key interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. The regulator’s follow-up statement pointed to growing external economic risks due to the declining global economy, rising protectionist sentiment, as well as increased uncertainty surrounding US-Chinese trade negotiations and the situation with Brexit.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on October 1, retreating from updated local highs of September 19. The growth of the Japanese currency was facilitated by corrective sentiment for the dollar across the entire spectrum of the market, which intensified with the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI in September crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points. Japanese statistics on business activity came out better than the forecasts, but could not provide significant support to the yen. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index fell from 7 to 5 points against the forecast of a decrease to 2 points. Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index retreated from 23 to 21 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 20 points. In turn, the yen was supported by data on the labor market. The Unemployment Rate in the country in August remained unchanged at 2.2%, while analysts had expected it to rise to 2.3%.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on October 1, falling under the influence of conflicting factors. The growth of quotes was facilitated by the information that the production volumes of the largest oil producing countries decreased in Q3 2019. In turn, the rapid recovery in Saudi Arabian production had a negative effect on the instrument. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report as of September 27 also provided moderate support for quotes. US oil inventories for the week showed a decrease of 5.92 million barrels after rising by 1.40 million barrels over the past period.

  3. #873
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-03 08:38 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    EUR rose moderately against USD on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 25. The euro was supported by weak macroeconomic data on US business activity published on Tuesday. ISM Manufacturing PMI in September crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points. There was significantly less interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US and the euro area yesterday, but this did not prevent the instrument from maintaining a "bullish" sentiment. USD has come under pressure from weak US data. The ADP Employment Change reflected a decline in September from 157K to 135K with a forecast of 140K. During today's Asian session, the pair is traded in both directions, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Investors are focused on Services PMI data from the US and the euro area.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday. During the day, the instrument traded mainly with a decrease, however, with the publication of weak data from the USA, it managed to correct. Pressure on the pound was exerted by the UK Construction PMI. In September, it fell from 45.0 to 43.3 points, although analysts did not predict changes in the indicator. In addition, the market reacted to the speech of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said that the government had prepared a new version of the agreement with the EU, under which it is not supposed to create additional customs checks on the Irish border or near it. Johnson expects approval of the agreement by October 10; otherwise the government will continue to prepare a no-deal Brexit.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, closing the session with almost zero result. The decline in the instrument in the morning proceeded under the influence of previous factors, while with the opening of the American session, the Australian dollar was able to recoup. The ADP Employment Change reflected a decline in September from 157K to 135K with a forecast of 140K. ISM NY Business Conditions in September fell from 50.3 to 42.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast of 47.5 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with an increase. The statistics on Australian PMIs turned out to be quite stable, which provided some support to the instrument. AiG Services index went up from 51.4 to 51.5 points in September. A similar indicator from Commonwealth Bank slightly decreased from 52.5 to 52.4 points.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, updating local lows of September 25. The yen showed growth, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Consumer Confidence Index in August fell from 37.1 to 35.6 points against the forecast of 36.9 points. A decrease in the indicator to the lowest levels since 2011 is facilitated by the rapid increase in sales tax in Japan, which will significantly affect household spending. During today's Asian session, the pair is traded in both directions, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a steady decline on October 2, reacting to the publication of a report by the US Department of Energy. In the week as of September 27, US Crude Oil Inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels. The market forecast growth of only 1.567 million barrels. At the same time, the report reflected a decrease in US oil production from 12.500 to 12.400 million barrels. Some support for oil quotes was provided by the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, speaking at an Energy Forum in Moscow, noted that Russia intends to continue to comply with the terms of the OPEC+ deal, and is also ready to consider and use all available tools to stabilize the market situation.

  4. #874
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-04 08:47 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Thursday, closing with a slight advantage of the "bulls". During the day, buyers sentiments prevailed, which allowed the euro to update the local highs of September 25. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by sharply increased prospects for a new trade war between the US and the EU. The day before, the WTO approved the intention of the US administration to introduce 10% trade duties on passenger aircraft and 25% duties on agricultural products from Europe in response to EU subsidies to Airbus. The new duties are supposed to be implemented on October 18. At the same time, the WTO pointed to the mirror situation with US subsidies to Boeing, however, the decision to increase tariffs will be considered only in 2020. Anyway, the market is wary of a new large-scale trade conflict, especially given that the conflict with China has not yet been fully resolved. Weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area put additional pressure on the euro on Thursday. Markit Composite PMI in the EU in September showed an increase from 51.9 to 50.1 points against the forecast of 50.4 points.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed strong growth against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of September 25. However, the instrument failed to consolidate at the new levels, and by the time the afternoon session ending, it had lost most of its advantage. The pound is supported by some progress on the Brexit issue. Boris Johnson presented an alternative compromise plan for the Irish border, which found a positive response in the camp of the EU leadership. Meanwhile, weak macroeconomic statistics continued to exert pressure on the British currency. Markit Services PMI in the UK in September fell from 50.6 to 49.5 points, again dropping into the stagnation zone. Analysts had expected a decline to 50.4 points only.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed growth against the US currency on Thursday, developing a slight correctional momentum formed the day before. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from Australia remained ambiguous and provided almost no support to the instrument. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in September showed a decrease from 52.5 to 52.4 points with a forecast of 52.5 points. Australian Trade Surplus fell in August from AUD 7.253 billion to AUD 5.926 billion, while the market was counting on a reduction of only AUD 6.000 billion. The decrease in the balance surplus was due to a sharp drop in exports from Australia in August by 3.00% after an increase of 0.36% in the previous month. During today's Asian session, the pair is again trading upwards, strengthening against the backdrop of a weak US dollar, which is awaiting publication of the September US labor market report.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar continues to weaken against the Japanese yen, updating new local lows. The day before, the instrument fell below 106.50, where it was last traded on September 5. The yen is again in demand amid growing fears of investors about a slowdown in the global economy and the onset of a recession in the United States. In addition, US macroeconomic indicators are increasingly worse than market forecasts, which, given pressure from Donald Trump, may force the Fed to return to the idea of further weakening monetary policy. However, the prospects for a new round of rate cuts are also observed in Japan, where the regulator is extremely concerned about the slowdown in inflation and the growth of external pressure factors.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed an active decline on Thursday, responding to the aggravation of previous fears about a decrease in demand for oil products amid further growth in production volumes. Poor macroeconomic statistics from the US also did not add optimism, provoking the resumption of talk about a possible recession in the US economy. In addition, investors are concerned about the intention of the US administration to introduce increased import duties against the EU from October 18, which will also negatively affect the volume of world trade and will spur the growth of protectionist sentiments. Today, investors expect the publication of the September report on the US labor market, which, given the leading ADP report, may come out worse than its forecasts. Investors are also waiting for the release of a new report from Baker Hughes on active oil rigs in the United States.

  5. #875
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-07 08:41 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed growth against the US dollar on Friday, but could not update the local highs of the previous day. Investors were focused on the September report on the US labor market. Average Hourly Earnings in the US in September slowed down from 3.2% YoY to 2.9% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. Nonfarm Payrolls in September fell from the previous 168K to 136K, with a forecast of 140K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in September unexpectedly dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, which supported the dollar. U6 Unemployment Rate for the same period decreased from 7.2% to 6.9%. Despite the fact that the report failed to meet all market expectations, it is likely to allow the Fed to take a wait and see attitude for some time.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Friday, reacting to the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market. In addition, investors are quite alarmed by the events around Brexit. Boris Johnson sent a new version of the agreement to Brussels, which provides for rather radical solutions to the problem with the Irish border. In particular, it proposed to create an all-island regulatory zone on the Island of Ireland, which will ensure the necessary customs control. The EU was optimistic about the UK's new proposals, but pointed out that a number of problems remained. However, until the UK has a clear agreement with the EU, the probability of a hard Brexit remains.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed active growth against the US currency on Friday, updating local highs of October 1. Moderate support for the instrument at the end of last week was provided by published data from Australia. HIA New Home Sales in August showed an increase of 7.3% MoM after a decrease of 7.2% MoM in the previous month. Retail Sales in August grew by 0.4% MoM, accelerating from previous levels of 0.0% MoM. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% MoM. An additional support for the instrument last Friday was provided by an ambiguous report on the US labor market for September, which did not meet expectations. During today's Asian session, AUD is declining. Pressure on the pair is exerted by AiG Construction PMI. In September, the indicator fell from 44.6 to 42.6 points.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen on Friday. The reason for the appearance of ambiguous trading was the report on the US labor market for September, which indicated an unexpected decline in Unemployment Rate in September from 3.7% to 3.5%, but at the same time reflected a sharp decrease in Hourly Earnings in September from 3.2 % YoY to 2.9% YoY. Nonfarm Payrolls in September slowed down from 168K to 136K with a forecast of 145K. During today's Asian session, the pair is showing moderate growth, waiting for new drivers to appear. On Monday, Investors focus on the publication of preliminary data on the Coincident and Leading indicators in Japan, as well as a speech by Jerome Powell in the United States.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Friday, continuing the development of a corrective impulse formed the day before. The report on the labor market disappointed investors with the slowdown in the Hourly Earnings in September from +3.2% YoY to +2.9% YoY; however, data on Employment and Unemployment Rate helped to reduce concerns about the recession in the US economy. Nonfarm Payrolls in September slowed down from 168K to 136K which was a bit worse than a forecast of 145K. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 3.5%, which is the lowest level in almost 50 years. Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the USA also provided moderate support for quotes. For the reporting week, the number of oil rigs decreased from 713 to 710 units.

  6. #876
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-08 08:52 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Monday, retreating from updated local highs of September 25. Pressure on the euro was provided by weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. August Factory Orders decreased by 0.6% MoM after a decrease of 2.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected a more significant decrease of –1.5% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator collapsed in August by 6.7% YoY after a decrease of 5.0% YoY in July. Experts expected a decrease of 4.6% YoY. The dollar, in turn, tracks the resumed trade negotiations between the US and China. The meeting between Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is scheduled for Thursday.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar on Monday. Pressure on the instrument continues to be exerted by the uncertain situation around Brexit. The new plan on the Irish border, which was proposed by the British government led by Boris Johnson, so far meets only cautious optimism in the camp of EU leaders, but negotiations are ongoing, and there is a chance that the EU will agree to the proposed conditions. UK macroeconomic statistics released on Monday also put pressure on the pound. Halifax Housing price Index in September showed a decrease of 0.4% MoM after an increase by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.1% MoM. In 3 months YoY, the indicator slowed down its growth from +1.8% 3m/YoY to +1.1% 3m/YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of +1.6% 3m/YoY. BRC Retail Sales published last night showed a 1.7% YoY decrease in September after a 0.5% YoY decrease last month.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed a decline against the US currency on Monday, interrupting the development of an ultra-short-term "bullish" trend, which brought the instrument to local highs of October 1. Pressure on the instrument was provided by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the alarming start of new negotiations between the United States and China. It became known that China will not make concessions on the issue of reducing subsidies for its own industry. AiG Construction PMI data released yesterday showed a decline in September from 44.6 to 42.6 points, which turned out to be worse than average market expectations. Today the pair is growing again, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. ANZ Job Advertisements in September showed an insignificant increase of 0.3% MoM after declining by 2.6% MoM in the previous month. NAB Business Survey in September showed an increase from 1 to 2 points, while NAB Business Confidence for the same period decreased from 1 to 0 points. Chinese Caixin Services PMI in September decreased from 52.1 to 51.3 points with the forecast of the increase to 52.9 points.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Monday, recovering to the levels of October 2. The yen reacted by lowering to the revision of official estimates of the Japanese economy for the near future. Additional pressure was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Coincident Indicators in August declined from 99.7 to 99.3 points with the forecast of 101.1 points. The Leading Indicators Index for the same period fell from 93.7 to 91.7 points with a forecast of 93.6 points. Today, the instrument is responding to ambiguous statistics from Japan on Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings. In August, Household Spending increased by 1.0% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of +0.8% YoY. The market expected growth of the indicator by 1.2% YoY. Average Cash Earnings in August fell by 0.2% YoY after falling by 1.0% YoY in July. Analysts expected a decline of 0.1% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the resumption of negotiations between the US and China. However, closer to the end of the afternoon session, quotes again went down, and the market began to express doubts about the success of the new round of negotiations, since it became known that China would not make concessions on the important issue of reducing subsidies for its own industry. Today, oil quotes show ambiguous dynamics, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are focused on data on industrial inflation in the United States, as well as a speech by the representative of the US Fed, Charles Evans, and Chairman of the regulator, Jerome Powell. In addition, traders expect an API Weekly Crude Oil Stock as of October 4.

  7. #877
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-09 08:50 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, continuing to develop a "bearish" impulse formed the day before. Pressure on the euro was exerted by ambiguous statistics on industrial production in Germany. On a monthly basis, production grew by 0.3% MoM in August after a decrease of 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.3% MoM. However, in annual terms, production volumes only accelerated their decline from the previous –3.9% YoY to –4.0% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than expectations of –2.7% YoY. Another negative factor for the instrument remains the situation around the Brexit process. It became known the day before that Germany opposed Boris Johnson’s new plan to solve the problem with the Irish border, which significantly reduces the chances of concluding a final agreement before the end of October.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound fell against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of September 4. The appearance of steady downward dynamics was due to the failure in the negotiations of Boris Johnson with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who rejected the new plan for the Northern Irish border. Merkel noted that a Brexit deal is only possible if Northern Ireland remains in the EU customs union. After another failure at the talks, the British media announced the possibility of five key ministers leaving their posts, which would only complicate the work of Johnson's government. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is still determined to carry out Brexit with or without an agreement on October 31. It is obvious that very soon the question of a new deferral of Brexit will again become acute, which, judging by the statements of Boris Johnson, remains unacceptable to him.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed a slight decrease against the US currency on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day the instrument was trading mainly with an increase. Pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the US decision to add 28 Chinese companies to the black list of legal entities that are prohibited from business cooperation with American businesses. This fact sharply worsened consensus forecasts for a new round of trade negotiations, which are due to begin on Thursday. It also became known that the PRC stopped broadcasting NBA matches after basketball players expressed their support for the latest protests in Hong Kong. Today, the instrument is trading with weak growth, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in October showed a decline of 5.5% after falling by 1.7% in the previous month.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, responding to a sharp deterioration in the prospects for a trade agreement between the PRC and the US in the upcoming round of talks on October 10, as well as to the publication of contradictory US macroeconomic statistics. NFIB Small Business Optimism in the US in September showed a decrease from 103.1 to 101.8 points against the forecast of 104.1 points. The Producer Price Index in September fell by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.1% MoM in August. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.1% MoM. YoY, the production inflation slowed down from +1.8% to +1.4%, which also turned out to be worse than the forecasts of +1.8% YoY. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism in October rose from 50.8 to 52.6 points with a forecast of growth of only 51.2 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed a decline on Tuesday, responding to a sharp deterioration in the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China after Washington blacklisted some Chinese companies. Donald Trump also changed the tone of his rhetoric regarding negotiations, emphasizing that achieving quick results is unlikely. In turn, some support for the quotes was provided by the ongoing unrest in Iraq and Ecuador, which are likely to adversely affect oil production. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report reflected an unexpected growth of the stock by 4.13 million barrels in the week as of October 4, after a decrease of 5.29 million barrels over the past period.

  8. #878
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-10 08:46 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed a slight increase against the US dollar on Wednesday, recovering from the "bearish" beginning of the week. Moderate support for the euro was provided by the weakening of the US currency against the backdrop of the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who spoke out in favor of resuming the asset purchase program, but emphasized that this was not a new round of quantitative easing. One way or another, the Fed sees obvious problems in the US economy and is preparing for new stimulation measures that will negatively affect USD. FOMC Minutes also put pressure on the instrument. As expected, the results were contradictory: 7 regulator officials called for a further reduction in rates by the end of the year, while 5 people expect them to remain at current levels. The remaining 5 Fed members do not exclude rate hikes in the range of 2.00%–2.25%.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics of trading against the US dollar on Wednesday, but again ended the afternoon session in the red zone, updating local lows of September 4. The British currency was supported yesterday by news about possible EU concessions to Great Britain on the issue of back-stop on the Irish border. However, comments by representatives of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland made the instrument return to a downtrend. The party will not support the agreement, which, according to its representatives, will lead to the creation of new customs barriers on the border with the UK. Today, the pair is growing. Investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of industrial production and manufacturing production. In addition, the market is waiting for the release of updated estimates of UK GDP for August and the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed a slight decline against the US currency on Wednesday, continuing the development of the downward momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The Australian currency was pressured by Westpac Consumer Confidence Index published in Australia. In October, the indicator fell by 5.5% after a decrease of 1.7% over the past period. Today, the instrument is growing rapidly, receiving support from new data from Australia. Home Loans in August grew by 1.8% MoM after growth of 5.0% MoM in July. Analysts had expected increase by 0.2% MoM only. Consumer Inflation Expectations in October accelerated significantly from +3.1% to +3.6%, which turned out to be noticeably better than expectations of +3.2%

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, recovering from a slight decline the day before. The pressure on the Japanese currency is exerted by the renewed talks between the US and China, despite the presence of serious doubts about the possibility of concluding a final agreement. Meanwhile, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan also does not provide significant support to the yen. Wednesday's Machine Tool Orders data showed that in September, according to preliminary estimates, the index decreased by 35.5% YoY after falling by 37.0% YoY in August. Today the instrument shows ambiguous dynamics. Machinery Orders in August fell again by 2.4% MoM and by 14.5% YoY with a market forecast of –2.5% MoM and –10.8% YoY.

    Oil

    Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, gaining support from a new round of talks between the United States and China. Despite the remaining barriers and serious doubts, the market still hopes for conclusion of at least a temporary agreement. According to the media, Beijing was ready to conclude a partial agreement with Washington, under which China is committed to increase imports of American agricultural products, and the United States, in turn, will refuse to introduce new import duties on Chinese goods. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report published on Wednesday put little pressure on the quotes. According to the data, the volume of crude oil in the United States for the week as of October 4 rose by 2.927 million barrels after rising by 3.100 million barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase in stocks of 1.413 million barrels.

  9. #879
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-11 08:48 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of September 20. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics for the instrument was not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the publication of Fed Minutes that signal in favor of continuing the cycle of interest rate cuts in the United States. The US Consumer Price Index in September showed a slowdown from 0.1% MoM to 0.0% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, inflation remained at the previous level of 1.7% YoY with a forecast of 1.8% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index in September slowed down from 0.3% YoY to 0.1% YoY, while the market forecast a slowdown to 0.2% YoY. Today the pair is also growing. Investors expect publication of the September statistics on Consumer Inflation in Germany, as well as awaiting speeches by ECB President Mario Draghi and Vice President Luis De Guindos.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound rose sharply against the US dollar on Thursday, reacting to a joint statement by the prime ministers of Great Britain and Ireland. Boris Johnson held talks with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, which discussed the British government’s plan for back-stop on the Irish border. Varadkar said that Johnson’s plan could lead to a full agreement with the EU, despite a number of contentious issues. In any case, Johnson has overcome another step and can now resume full-fledged negotiations with Brussels. This is expected to happen this Friday. The final decision on Brexit may be made as early as next week at the EU summit.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency on Thursday, updating local highs of October 1. Optimistic Brexit news, as well as the publication of weak statistics from the USA on consumer inflation, which will create additional pressure on the Fed in the choice of further monetary policy, contributed to the growth of consumer activity on the instrument. In addition, investors are awaiting the outcome of a new round of talks between the United States and China, and so far the market forecasts are very optimistic. Some analysts believe that the United States may conclude a currency agreement with China, which will help to avoid further increase in import duties. This will be the first step towards a final trade deal between countries.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Thursday, updating local highs of October 1. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by a noticeable decline in interest in safe assets in the market amid some progress on trade negotiations between the US and China. In addition, investors are optimistic about Brexit news. Macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan released yesterday turned out to be ambiguous. The Japanese Core Machinery Orders in August showed a decrease of 14.5% YoY after an increase of 0.3% YoY last month. Analysts expected negative dynamics, but only at –10.8% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator decreased by 2.4% MoM after a decrease of 6.6% MoM last month. The forecast was –2.5% MoM.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed strong growth on Thursday, responding to optimistic OPEC statements. In particular, Mohammed Barkindo, the leader of the group of exporters, noted that the cartel is considering all possible options to stabilize supply and demand in the market, and the question of extending the current OPEC+ agreement will be considered in December. In addition, moderate progress in the US-China trade negotiations is providing moderate support to oil quotes. In the focus of investors today, in addition to comments from US and Chinese officials, there is the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States.

  10. #880
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2019-10-14 08:46 (GMT+2)
    EUR/USD

    The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of September 20. Nevertheless, the instrument failed to consolidate at new highs, and by the end of the afternoon session, the dollar managed to significantly recoup. The euro is supported by optimistic signals about Brexit and the process of a new round of negotiations between the United States and China. Last week, Boris Johnson held a meeting with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, following which the parties were able to find common ground that could be enough to work out a final agreement. The EU praised Johnson's actions, noting at the same time that there is little time for a new deal. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are playing out Chinese statistics on exports and imports, and also expect new drivers to appear at the market. Today, August data on industrial production in the euro area, as well as a speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos are expected.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound showed steady growth at the end of last week, updating local highs of June 28. The instrument is actively rising amid optimistic signals from the Brexit negotiation process, which gives hope for Britain to leave the EU in late October with an existing agreement. It is expected that a vote on this issue in the British Parliament should take place within 24 hours after the EU summit, which will be held in Brussels on October 18, and until then the parties will try to agree on all remaining issues. This will be the first Saturday parliamentary session in 40 years. Today, the pair is expectedly correcting, waiting for the appearance of new signals. Investors will pay attention to a statement by Jon Cunliffe, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member, but one should not count on any important comments ahead of the Brexit final date.

    AUD/USD

    The Australian dollar showed strong growth against the US currency on Friday, updating local highs of September 19. The instrument is supported by good prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. On Friday, the first round of new negotiations ended, following which it was decided to postpone the introduction of import duties on Chinese goods until mid-December. Donald Trump said that "the first phase of the deal was completed," however, the final preparation of documents will take a little more than a month. China, as previously planned, will noticeably increase imports of American agricultural products by 40-50 billion dollars a year. At the same time, the markets were somewhat disappointed by the absence of Huawei situation on the agenda.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar showed growth against the Japanese yen on Friday, having received support from the emerging progress in the issue of trade negotiations between the US and China. In addition, interest in the "safe" yen is declining amid improved Brexit prospects. Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the United States was contradictory. Export Price Index in September showed a negative trend (–0.2% MoM) after a decline of 0.6% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected 0.0% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in export prices intensified in September from the previous –1.4% YoY to –1.6% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –1.5% YoY. At the same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, according to preliminary estimates, rose sharply in October from 93.2 to 96.0 points with a forecast of 92.0 points.

    Oil

    Oil prices showed moderate growth last Friday, gaining support amid tensions in the Middle East. According to the media, the Iranian tanker was attacked in the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia. Victims and ship loss were avoided, but the market is concerned about possible retaliatory actions from Iran. A more confident growth of quotes on Friday was hindered by Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report. After a long period of decline in the number of active rigs for the week as of October 11, the report reflected the growth of active platforms from 710 to 712 units.

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