Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
In the beginning of the previous week the pair USD/JPY reversed from its 5-month minimum. The growth of yen stopped after the publication of Japanese trading balance (much worse than forecast) last Thursday. This week the growth of the pair continued despite the fall of USD. The pair continued to weaken after yesterday's decision of the Bank of Japan to keep the interest rate unchanged in the minimum level. The pair reached its 4-weeks minimum and broke through the resistance level of 111.20. A number of important macroeconomic releases were published in Japan tonight: consumer price index, labor market data, production output forecast, and the volume of retail sales. All indicators lost a number of positions but investors failed to show any evident reaction so far.
No important releases from Japan are to be expected until next week. From the USA the market is waiting for the GDP data with a negative outlook at 14:30 (GMT+2). PMI Chicago (also with a negative forecast) is due at 15:15 (GMT+2), and consimer sentiment index with a neutral outlook will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). Statements by FOMC members Harket and Brainard are due at 19:15 (GMT+2) and 20:30 (GMT+2) respectively.
The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the upward correction.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 110.20, 108.90, 107.40.
Resistance levels: 111.20, 112.20, 113.20, 114.00.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened at the market price wuth targets at 112.20, 113.20 and stop-loss at 110.30.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 110.20 with target at 108.90 and stop-loss at 111.10.

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

Last Friday a number of important releases came from New Zealand: trading balance and construction permits. Although March trading balance showed stable growth in March, it appeared to be less than forecast. The number of construction permits fell considerably in comparison with the previous period. All these factors had a negative impact on the dynamics of the pair that has been falling for the whole previous week and updated 11-months minimums after reaching the level of 0.6850. The pair weakened in view of US dollar's being under the influence of mixed factors that the investors perceive as "hawkish". This is especially important in view of the upcoming FOMC decision on the interest rate that is expected to be made on Wednesday, May 3 at 20:00 (GMT+2).

No important releases are expected from New Zealand today. From the USA, on the contrary, certain important data are due: a statement by the US Minister of Finance Stephen Mnuchin at 13:45 (GMT+2), information on personal income and expenditure with mixed forecasts (income decreases, and expenditure goes up which indicates slower economy rates) at 14:30 (GMT+2), and at 16:00 (GMT+2) — Manufacturing PMI and Inflation Build-Up Index (both with negative outlooks also indicating slower economy growth). In case the forecasts prove true, Wednesday decision on the interest rate will be under strong "dovish" influence. Today's speech by Stephen Mnuchin is to clarify many things. One may expect his rhetorics to determine the dynamics of the pair (and all other USD pairs) this week.
The main scenario for today will be further weakening of the pair.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6710, 0.6600.
Resistance levels: 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7075.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.6800, 0.6710 and stop-loss at 0.6910.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.6865 with targets at 0.6910, 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.6820.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of Bollinger Bands, having formed 5 consecutive closes below the line. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, having reached its critical oversold levels.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing from below the border of the oversold zone that coincide with its longer MA. The Composite keeps developing Bullish dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.79 (March lows), 16.38 (October 2015 highs), 16.15 (November 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 17.08 (October 2016 lows), 17.19 (December 2016 highs), 17.67 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing a strong support near 16.80. Indicators suggest a high chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 17.08, 17.19 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.70 with the target at 16.38 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Yesterday Brent consolidated in view of the publishing of the API report on weekly changes in the US oil reserves. The reserves of four main oil products in the USA decreased by over 4 million barrels which helped the trading instrument consolidate above 50.80. Along with this, oil market continues to experience pressure due to uncertainty about the extension of OPEC agreement on the limitation of oil production for the second half of 2017. Moreover, fuel production in the USA has reached a maximum level since August 2015 which puts additional pressure on oil. At the same time the UAE Minister of Oil stated it was reasonable to extend the agreement and pointed out that full solidarity of its members was needed to reach the goal.

A key event that may considerably impact the dynamics of the trading instruments is the OPEC summit that will take place on May 25 in Vienna. Today the US Department of Energy will publish its report on weekly changes of commercial oil and petrochemicals reserves. Specialists expect them to decrease for the fourth week in a row which will lead to the strenghtening of Brent Crude Oil. Also attention today should be paid to the decision of the US regulator on the interest rate.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart the instrument is correcting in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed downwards while the price range has widened which is a ground for the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone maintaining the sell signal. Stochastic has turned upwards at the border of the oversold zone. Indicators don't give a clear signal for entering the market, therefore it would be wise to use sell and buy stop orders.

Support levels: 50.80, 50.64, 50.49, 50.32, 50.19.
Resistance levels: 51.10, 51.25, 51.37, 51.60, 51.83.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 50.75 with targets at 50.30, 50.10 and stop-loss at 51.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 51.10 with targets at 51.60 and stop-loss at 50.90. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Canadian dollar has been falling against USD for two weeks which causes active growth of USD/CAD.

This week the pair broke through a strong resistance level of 1.3700 around which it stayed last February. The fall of the Canadian currency happened in the absence of growth of US dollar that remains in the narrow flat for the second week and in view of a small number of important releases from Canada. The most likely fundamental reasons for this dynamics may be falling oil prices that Canadian dollar has always been sensitive for. Another strong factor is the growth of return on American bonds. Recently this factor has been one of the main reasons for the decrease of all reserve currencies against USD.

The most important news of today will be the data on Canadian trade balance at 14:30 (GMT+2). A small reduction of balance deficiency from CAD 0.97 to 0.80 trln is expected which is a positive factor. At the same time the forecast for the US trading balance states the deficiency in the amount of $900 mln. The data on the volume of industrial orders from the USA will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is expected to drop to 0.4% which will have a negative impact on USD. A statement by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz is scheduled for 22:25 (GMT+2).
A likely scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's strengthening.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is returning to the upward movement zone in which it has remained since last May. The support line of this trend being also the lower border of channel D1 (blue) has confirmed its strength several times. The upper zone of this range around the levels of 1.4030-1.4160 may be the target of the pair.
Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3450.
Resistance levels: 1.3840, 1.4030, 1.4160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3840, 1.4030 and stop-loss at 1.3640.
Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3700 with targets at 1.3600, 1.3535 and stop-loss at 1.3800.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

USD/CHF: technical analysis

USD/CHF, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is trying to turn up just above the border of the oversold zone. The Composite starts forming a divergence with the price, suggesting a growth possibility.

USD/CHF, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI turned up having bounced off the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, showing a divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.9830 (March lows), 0.9780 (December 2015 lows), 0.9710 (February 2010 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.9950 (May 2016 highs), 1.0001 (local highs), 1.0044 (local highs).

Trading tips

The pair is approaching its strong support level near 0.9830. There is a chance of an upward rebound.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.9950, 1.0001, 1.0044 and stop-loss at 0.9830. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9830 with targets at 0.9780, 0.9710 and stop-loss at 0.9860. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

From the beginning of the month the AUD is actively lowering against the USD due to the quite poor macroeconomic data from the Australia, such as the lowering of the April trade balance surplus and the RBA decision to keep the interest rate on the same minimum level.

Last week the new home sales in Australia lowered to this year minima, also the copper and gold prices lowered significantly, as Australia keeps the leading positions on export of these materials. As a result the price reached the 4 month minimum, and only the support zone at the level of 0.7350-0.7400 was strong enough to reverse the pair into the corrections due to the quite controversial traders’ reaction to the positive USA employment market data on Friday. The USD was trading in the narrow flat for the two weeks, but after the publications of these important data, which were better than expected, ended the last week with a significant lowering. The investors’ reaction will probably appear this week.

Today the traders should pay their attention to the 3 and 6 Month Bill Auctions data. Tomorrow the Australia Retail Sales data are worth traders’ attention: the growth of the index to the level of 0.3% is expected.
The development of the correction due to the absence of the important news is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7310, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7440.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7440, 0.7490 and stop loss at 0.7360.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7380 with the target at 0.7310, 0.7200 and stop loss 0.7470.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
The Japanese yen, together with all commodity currencies, is falling against the US dollar. The pair USD/JPY last week renewed a five-week maximum. The report of the Bank of Japan last Tuesday confirmed the soft monetary policy, weakening the yen, and the positive labor market data from America supported the dollar. As a result, the pair is testing the critical resistance level of 113.30, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the semi-annual fall of the pair.

Today, there are no data from Japan. In the United States at 16:00 (GMT+2) the number of open vacancies in the labor market will be published. It is predicted that the number will decrease by 73K which is not a significant figure, but any diverging from the forecast may impact the movement of the pair. At 19:00 (GMT+2) and at 20:15 (GMT+2) officials of the US Federal Reserve Steven Kaplan and Eric Rosenberg will be speaking.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 112.20, 111.20, 110.20.
Resistance levels: 113.30, 114.00, 115.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the market price with the target of 114.00, stop-loss – 113.30.
Short positions can be placed at the level of 112.20 with the goal of 111.20, the stop-loss is 113.00.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last two weeks the NZD showed the best results among the commodity currencies and assets, which were lowering against the USD. Last week the NZD was supported by the growth of the dairy prices and the increase of the employed, and was trading flat above the level of 0.6865, which is almost the year minimum.
Today the traders are waiting for the key publications from the USA. The Export Price Index and Import Price Index will be published. The export is expected to lower and the import is expected to grow, which will decrease the trade balance. The 10-Year Note Auction data will be published, and the profitability of them is growing form the last August, which is positive for the USD. The Monthly Budget Statement is also expected, but it will affect the price insignificantly.

The NZRB interest rate decision will be published tomorrow, the rate is expected to stay on the minimum level of 1.75%. The Monetary Policy Statement is also expected, which will affect the dynamics of the pair.
The insignificant growth of the pair is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6865, 0.6800, 0.6710.
Resistance levels: 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7075, 0.7170.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7000 and stop loss at 0.6870.
Sell the pair from the level of 0.6865 with the target at 0.6800 and stop loss at 0.6900.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The AUD was lowering against the USD due to the list of factors, such as the RBA interest rate decision, the lowering of copper, gold and iron ore, the poor macroeconomical Australian statistics. After a quite long fall the price reversed into the upward correction form the level of 0.7330, which is quite strong support level. The breakout of this level will give a signal for the downward trend to continue.
As for the macroeconomical releases, which can affect the pair, the USA Producer Price Index is worth traders’ attention today (14:30 GMT+2) and the Initial Jobless Claims (14:30 GMT+2). The Producer Price Index is expected to grow to 0.2% in April from -0.1% in the previous month, and the Initial Jobless Claims number will grow to 245K WoW from 238K in the previous week.

Support and resistance

Technically the price consolidated on the black downward channel H4, which has been determining the price for the last two months. On the other hand, the price didn’t reach the lower border of the blue channel D1, which has been supporting the price for a year. This dynamics of the price can reflect the “bullish” mood, but positions of the sellers of the AUD/USD pair are still strong.

Support levels: 0.7310, 0.7270, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380.

Trading scenario

Open long positions from the current price with the target at 0.7440 and stop loss at 0.7345.
Open short positions from the level of 0.7310 with the target at 0.7270, 0.7200 and stop loss at 0.7350.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/