Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

After the long fall the gold price met the support at the zone of 1210.00-1220.00, after which it reversed to the upward correction. The upper border of the channel D1 (green), which has been supported the price for the 4 months, coincided with the 50% Fibonacci from the last half a year price growth. Despite the strong technical support, the fundamental factors are still pressing the gold: the growth of the US bills yield and the expectations of the USA FRS interest rate rise in the June meeting

Today the market participants are waiting for the USA publications: the Retail Sales and Inflation data (14:30 GMT+2). The Retail Sales index is expected to grow to 0.6% in April from 0.5% in the previous month.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1210.00, 1190.00, 1170.00.
Resistance levels: 1230.00, 1250.00, 1265.00.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 1230.0 0.1250.00 and stop loss at 1210.00.
Open short positions from 1210.00 with the target at 1190.00, 1170.00 and stop loss at 1230.00.
Implementation period: 1-3 days

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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

The report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy showed the reduction of oil reserves in the USA by over 5.2 mln barrels which gave the prices stong growth momentum. The strengthening was supported by the monthly OPEC report published on Thursday. The main idea of the report was that the member states of the cartel and external exporters have reached consensus on the extension of OPEC+ agreement. The final decision on this matter is expected to be made in Vienna at the meeting of all member countries.

No important releases for the instrument are due today. One may pay attention to Manufacturing PMI from New York that comes before federal data (with a positive outlook). More attention should be paid to tomorrow's report of IEA on the process of fulfillment of OPEC+. During the week reports by API and EIA may also be of interest. as they may confirm or disprove the tendency for further reduction of US oil reserves.
The most likely forecast for the near future will be the continuation of upward correction of oil.

Support and resistance

Technically the price broke through the levels 50.00, 50.90, lower border of channel H4 (black) and 51.50. After consolidation above this zone one may expect the growth to continue to higher targets.
Support levels: 51.50, 50.90, 50.00.
Resistance levels: 52.60, 53.00, 53.75.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 52.60, 53.00 and stop-loss at 51.50.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from the level of 51.50 with targets at 50.90, 50.00 and stop-loss at 52.10.
The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

Since the middle of the previous week the pair has been in the downward correction. Both recent data from the USA (retail sales and CPI) and Switzerland (CPI and manufacturers price index) were quite weak. However, the investors worried more about the fate of the US currency which pushes the pair down. Additional interest of the market to USD is explained by the expectations of June FOMC meeting and its interest rate decision. In these terms any signs of slowdown in the US economy put considerable pressure on USD, as the market worries about postponing the interest rate increase.

Today no important statistics from Switzerland is expected. From the USA the market is waiting for the data on the number of new construction permits and houses under construction in April. The most important release will be the volume of industrial output in the USA: the indicator is expected to fall from 0.5% to 0.4% which may cause further decrease of the pair.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair has been moving in almost horizontal range between the borders of green channel D1 and the middle line for four months. The balance line of the channel is the level of parity with USD (1.0000).

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9850, 0.9780, 0.9700.
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0110, 1.0180.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.9850 and stop-loss at 0.9950.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from the level of 1.0000 with targets at 1.0050, 1.0110 and stop-loss at 0.9960.
The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

On Tuesday GBP experienced volatility after the release of the data on the consumer price index. In March the indicator made 2.7% which considerably exceeds the target level of 2.0%. Investors worried that due to reduced income of households high inflation may lead to the fall of internal demand, that is why the pair went done but soon restored its lost positions. Today's releases included positive data on the unemployment rate (that dropped to 4.6% in March) and the average salary (the indicator with bonuses increased by 2.4%).

Generally, the pair is consolidating between the levels of 1.2865 and 1.2990. No considerable difficulties in the British economy caused by Brexit have been observed yet, and GBP is not weakening. On the other hand, the investors worry that FOMC intends to increase the interest rate, and President Trump states USD is too strong.
Among Wednesday news one may pay attention to the statement by the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Haldane that could shed some light on further actions of the British regulator.
The growth of the pair is a forecast for the next two days.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2865.
Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3040, 1.3110, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2990, 1.3040 and stop-loss at 1.2900.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2865 with target at 1.2780 and stop-loss at 1.2950.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday the Brent Crude Oil price grew, reacting to the API Crude Oil Stocks change that showed the USA resources lowering. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change, which was published in the Wednesday evening, showed the lowering by 1.753 million barrel in a week. As a result the Brent Crude Oil grew by 1.81% and reached the area of the level of 52.64. The price tried to consolidate above the level for some times, but didn’t succeed, so the price was corrected downwards. It’s hard to increase the price above the level, taking into consideration the global oil surplus problems. After the slight growth of the last days the price entered the downward correction.

The traders are waiting for the further OPEC signals upon the stabilization of the world oil production level. The nearest OPEC meeting is on May, 25 in Vienna.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflect the growing influence of the sellers. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; however its volumes are decreasing confirming the downward trend.
Support levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.20.
Resistance levels: 52.64, 53.67, 54.44.

Trading scenario

Open short positions below the level of 51.20 with the target at around 50.30 and stop loss at 51.45.
Open long positions above the level of 52.64 with the target at around 53.67 and stop loss at 52.30.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Thursday USD stabilized after a fall in the beginning of the week caused by political turmoil in the USA. The US currency was supported by a strong unemployment report. The number of initial jobless claims dropped from 236K to 232K while the experts expected it to grow to 240K. Moreover, manufacturing PMI in Philadelphia suddenly drew from 22.0 to 38.8 points against the negative forecast of 19.9 points.

Currently the possibility of further fall of USD is high as political instability in Washington puts complex pressures on USD. Along with this Trump's impeachment is often mentioned in the media, and macroeconomic statistics becomes secondary.
Today in the second half of the day the market will be waiting for a statement by FOMC representative James Bullard dedicated to the fiscal policy. The comments of the official may have a considerable impact on the dynamics of the pair as the doubts about the growth of interest rates grow every day. Later on the European Commission will publish the data on consumer sentiment index in May. The expected growth of the indicator will strengthen the pair.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is trading in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed downwards while the price range remains unchanged which is a ground for the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone with its volumes growing and keeping the sell signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone.

Support levels: 1.1065, 1.1015, 1.0951, 1.0853, 1.0765.
Resistance levels: 1.1132, 1.1183, 1.1246, 1.1310.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 1.1245 and stop-loss at 1.1038. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions could be opened at the level of 1.1036 with target at 1.0945 and stop-loss at 1.1100. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

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Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week oil prices reached the 4 weeks maximum around 53.50-54.00 USD per barrel. The price was supported by the lowering of the USD, which is weakening due to the USA Administration crisis. The lowering of the US oil recourses also made a positive impact on the price. In addition, the commentaries of the OPEC members leave no doubt that the oil production limitation agreement will be prolonged.
The main upcoming issue in the oil market is the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May, 25. Most likely, the result of the meeting is already taken into account by the investors, and after the publication of the results of the OPEC meeting the traders will fix the profit partially, which will lead to the lowering of the price.

Support and resistance

Technical picture reflects that the price crossed very significant resistance zone — the lower border of the channel D1 (blue), which has been the price growth trend line for the year and a half. Further reaction of the price in this zone will determine the movement dynamics in the nearest future.
Support levels: 53.75, 53.00, 52.60, 51.50.
Resistance levels: 54.40, 55.00, 56.15, 57.20.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 54.40, 55.00 and stop loss at 53.70.
Sell at the level of 53.00 with the target at 52.60, 51.50 and stop loss at 53.40.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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AUD/USD: общий обзор

Текущая динамика

На фоне отсутствия макроэкономической статистики участники рынка продолжают отыгрывать негативные политические факторы из США и продают американские доллары, результатом чего стал рост курса AUD/USD. За последние сутки пара прибавила 0,55% и поднялась в район 0.7493.
Показания технических индикаторов говорят о том, что покупатели на рынке все ещё сильны. Полосы Боллинджера расходятся, подтверждая восходящую тенденцию. Гистограмма MACD находится в положительной зоне, объёмы её стремительно растут и формируют сигнал на покупку. Пробой уровня 0.7511 будет сигналом к продолжению роста и откроет паре путь к уровню 0.7555. Если попытки закрепиться выше уровня 0.7511 останутся безуспешными, то в таком случае стоит ждать коррекции курса в район средней полосы Боллинджера (0.7450).

Уровни поддержки и сопротивления

Уровни поддержки: 0.7474, 0.7437, 0.7394.
Уровни сопротивления: 0.7511, 0.7555, 0.7587.

Торговые сценарии

Позиции на покупку открывать выше уровня 0.7511 с целями в районе 0.7555, 0.7587 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 0.7485.
Позиции на продажу открывать ниже уровня 0.7474 с целями в районе 0.7437, 0.7394 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 0.7500.

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Due to the absence of the macroeconomical statistics the investor continue to react to the negative political factors from the USA and sell the US dollar, which led to the growth of the AUD/USD pair. During the last day the pair strengthened by 0.55% and reached the area of 0.7493.

Technical indicators reflect that the buyers are still strong in the market. Bollinger Bands are diverging, confirming the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are rapidly growing and forming a buy signal. The breakout of the level 0.7511 will let the price to grow further and reach the level of 0.7555. If the pair cannot consolidate above the level of 0.7511, the correction to the area of middle line of Bollinger Bands (0.7450) will be expected.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7474, 0.7437, 0.7394.
Resistance levels: 0.7511, 0.7555, 0.7587.

Trading scenario

Open long positions above the level of 0.7511 with the target around 0.7555, 0.7587 and stop loss at 0.7485.
Open short positions below the level of 0.7474 with the target around 0.7437, 0.7394 and stop loss at 0.7500.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

After significant growth in the beginning of the week the pair NZD/USD is demostrating a decrease. Yesterday US dollar had a number of positive moments, and the pair made a short-term attempt to stick at the local maximum. However, the price was quickly reduced by the sellers which caused a new round of correction. The statements by the FOMC member Patrick Harker about the remaining possibility of two interest rate increases this year also had a positive impact on USD rate.

The main event of today will be the publishing of the final MoM of FOMC Open Markets Committee. The market is expected to be highly volatile.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair corrected to the upper border of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal.
Support levels: 0.6960, 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6820.
Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7275, 0.7350.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.6950 and stop-loss at 0.7030.
Long positions may be opened from 0.7060 with targets at 0.7150 and stop-loss at 0.7030.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/